Opinions by John Stephenson | StockChase
2923
John Stephenson

President & CEO

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Sep 2002

Stephenson & Company Capital Management
TD Canada Trust Tower, 161 Bay St Suite 2770Toronto, ONM5J 2S1
T: 416-572-2089 info@stephenson-co.com
www.first asset.com


Opinions by John Stephenson


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2017-08-03

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market. Tech stocks are showing some weakness, and it is probably a decent opportunity to buy some. Some would say it is a crowded trade, but the reality is that we have a very slow growth world. The US just came out with their economic growth, and the 2nd quarter was 2.6%, well away from the 4% that Trump was promising. In a very slow growth world, companies that can post 30%-40%, and some cases more, are going to be prized. The FANG stocks are really unique monopoly companies. For most of them, their growth rate and the run rate is pretty unlimited at this point.

John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-08-03

COMMENT
Boeing (BA-N)

A US defensive stock? To a large extent, you have missed a lot of it. They are not cheap. His choice would be General Dynamics (GD-N) or this, which has the commercial side, but also has defence.

Transportation
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $238.250
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

TOP PICK
Alibaba Group Holding (BABA-N)

This has put out some really outstanding numbers lately. Core earnings have grown by 46% year-over-year, and where else are you going to get growth like that. Right now it is a Chinese story and a Chinese play, but they are doing outreach to North American retailers in order to sell their wares in to China. (Analysts’ price target is $170.)

John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $153.320
Owned: Yes

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2017-08-03

BUY
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T)

Which Canadian bank should I choose? You could probably pick them all, but if you wanted to pick one only, he would pick Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T). Their International side is coming along. They are pretty good at wielding the scalpel, so costs are always a good area of focus for them. Expects the group will grow at 8%-9%.

banks
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $78.000
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

PAST TOP PICK
Caterpillar (CAT-N)

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 57%.) *Short* He closed out the Short on November 15. Overall, they have done really well, and certainly defied many people who thought a Short was a good idea.

machinery
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $113.560
Owned: No

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2017-08-03

COMMENT
Canadian National R.R. (CNR-T)

Canadian National (CNR-T) and Canadian Pacific (CP-T). These have both lagged relative to the market. The market tends to allocate cash toward certain areas and groups at the expense of others. He thinks it is more of a function of what is going on. Overall, the valuation is not super compelling. If it is a long-term call you are looking for, he would just buy them and put them away.

Transportation
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $100.190
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

COMMENT
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP-T)

Canadian National (CNR-T) and Canadian Pacific (CP-T). These have both lagged relative to the market. The market tends to allocate cash toward certain areas and groups at the expense of others. He thinks it is more of a function of what is going on. Overall, the valuation is not super compelling. If it is a long-term call you are looking for, he would just buy them and put them away.

Transportation
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $196.070
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

COMMENT
Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T)

This has been a good name in the past, and continues to be good. They have a decent footprint in Europe which is really helpful. Continues to post good numbers and will continue going higher.

computer software/processing
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $696.650
Owned: No

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2017-08-03

HOLD
Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)

This is really out of favour, but in their last quarter they really surprised the street with a big tax rebate and a few other things that really helped boost their numbers. Longer-term, this is probably a good name, but still probably a “no touch” for 6 months to a year. Thinks the worst is over, but it may take a while for it to start reacting again.

oil/gas
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $10.130
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

PAST TOP PICK
Duluth Holdings (DLTH-Q)

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 20%.) Sold his holdings in September. This started as an online catalogue company, essentially workwear and clothing for men and women. Thinks they have a long-term margin goal of 35%. They’ve doubled their stores in 18 months. Retail has been undergoing pressure. Feels it could easily be a $30 stock.

John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $19.230
Owned: No

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2017-08-03

TOP PICK
Facebook (FB-Q)

They are destroying the competition, because they are so big. Have 2 billion users and are really everywhere. The data they collect is incredibly valuable. Leveraging video content and advertising is the next step. Trading at 24X earnings, which is great considering that it is growing at 40% a year. (Analysts’ price target is $190.)

John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $168.590
Owned: Yes

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2017-08-03

HOLD
FedEx (FDX-N)

The business mix has changed a little. There has been a real decline in the sort of “envelopes overnight” as well as international delivery. A lot of business is now done through email. They acquired TNT, so we have to see how that goes. It is a survivor and a good company.

Transportation
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $209.360
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

COMMENT
General Dynamics Corp. (GD-N)

A US defensive stock? To a large extent, you have missed a lot of it. They are not cheap. His choice would be this or Boeing (BA-N), which has the commercial side, but also has defence.

transportation equip & components
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $199.330
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

COMMENT
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD-Q)

This has struggled. It is cheap, trading at about 9X earnings. There has been a resurgence of late, which is positive. The hep C franchise is just not showing tremendous growth, and there are not a lot of things in the pipeline. They have a fair bit of cash. He would prefer Celgene (CELG-Q) on a pullback or Vertex (VRTX-Q), which has had some innovative drugs on multiple sclerosis.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $74.370
Owned: Unknown

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2017-08-03

COMMENT
Home Capital Group (HCG-T)

Looking out 12 months, this is probably an attractive name. The company is doing all the right things in terms of their board and a new president. It might be a bit of a grind higher from here. The easy money has been made.

investment companies/funds
John Stephenson

President & CEO, Stephenson & Company Capital Management

Price: $13.860
Owned: Unknown

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