Opinions by Robert Lauzon | StockChase
1108
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Dec 2004

Middlefield Capital Corporation

1108
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Dec 2004

Middlefield Capital Corporation


Opinions by Robert Lauzon


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
BUY on WEAKNESS
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

January 10, 2018

Long-term this is definitely a stock you want to own. Its ecosystem is so massive, it touches 3 generations. You have 75-year-olds getting on iPads, and then they are brought into the ecosystem. That’s very powerful when they have that many users. Right now, there is a little noise on the market with a lot of tech stocks. There could be a pullback on this, but he could see it being a $200 stock in a year. Also, they’ll be repatriating cash back from overseas.

electrical/electronic

Long-term this is definitely a stock you want to own. Its ecosystem is so massive, it touches 3 generations. You have 75-year-olds getting on iPads, and then they are brought into the ecosystem. That’s very powerful when they have that many users. Right now, there is a little noise on the market with a lot of tech stocks. There could be a pullback on this, but he could see it being a $200 stock in a year. Also, they’ll be repatriating cash back from overseas.

electrical/electronic
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$174.290
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Alaris Royalty(AD-T) 

January 10, 2018

Likes their business model, which is royalties. They go into businesses that need help and capital. Instead of selling common shares or getting high lender debt, this company will structure some kind of a royalty deal that will give them a high coupon and first rates to different things. Pays an 8% dividend, and has a well diversified portfolio. However, competition in this kind of business is increasing. He’s not very bullish on their business plan right now, and wouldn't buy this yet. Higher interest rates would put a bit of a strain on their business. Stay away from this for now.

Financial Services

Likes their business model, which is royalties. They go into businesses that need help and capital. Instead of selling common shares or getting high lender debt, this company will structure some kind of a royalty deal that will give them a high coupon and first rates to different things. Pays an 8% dividend, and has a well diversified portfolio. However, competition in this kind of business is increasing. He’s not very bullish on their business plan right now, and wouldn't buy this yet. Higher interest rates would put a bit of a strain on their business. Stay away from this for now.

Financial Services
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$20.040
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

January 10, 2018

(A Top Pick Nov 1/16. Up 87%.) There were a few tailwinds involved. Higher rates were expected, a better US economy, better regulation in the US and higher earnings.

banks

(A Top Pick Nov 1/16. Up 87%.) There were a few tailwinds involved. Higher rates were expected, a better US economy, better regulation in the US and higher earnings.

banks
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$30.550
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS

Another stock that sold off on the news of NAFTA. It gives you exposure to renewable energy, infrastructure, real estate, financial business, venture capital, merchant banking through business partners. Kind of a one-stop shop for a lot of industries. He would buy on a dip.

management/diversified

Another stock that sold off on the news of NAFTA. It gives you exposure to renewable energy, infrastructure, real estate, financial business, venture capital, merchant banking through business partners. Kind of a one-stop shop for a lot of industries. He would buy on a dip.

management/diversified
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$52.910
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Bristol Myers Squibb(BMY-N) 

January 10, 2018

(A Top Pick Nov 1/16. Up 26%.) Still a top holding across all his funds. Likes its innovative pipeline of drugs, especially its immuno ecology for fighting cancer. Thinks it has the strongest portfolio out there. Because of their strong pipeline, this would be an M&A target. Repatriation of cash by a lot of majors will spur M&A in healthcare.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical

(A Top Pick Nov 1/16. Up 26%.) Still a top holding across all his funds. Likes its innovative pipeline of drugs, especially its immuno ecology for fighting cancer. Thinks it has the strongest portfolio out there. Because of their strong pipeline, this would be an M&A target. Repatriation of cash by a lot of majors will spur M&A in healthcare.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$62.010
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
BNP Paribas(BNP FP (Paris)) 

January 10, 2018

He likes this because of the global growth, and he really likes Europe and European banks right now. Rates are going up, but more importantly velocity of money and loans are finally happening in Europe, both to consumers and businesses. Europe has been a laggard out of the recession, and over the last 18 months have finally got their act together. Trading at 10 PE, has a growing dividend and he really likes France. Dividend yield of 4.1%. (Analysts' price target is €73.25.)

He likes this because of the global growth, and he really likes Europe and European banks right now. Rates are going up, but more importantly velocity of money and loans are finally happening in Europe, both to consumers and businesses. Europe has been a laggard out of the recession, and over the last 18 months have finally got their act together. Trading at 10 PE, has a growing dividend and he really likes France. Dividend yield of 4.1%. (Analysts' price target is €73.25.)

0
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY on WEAKNESS

Is the ripping up of NAFTA a serious concern for them? Long-term, a good economy means a good stock for this company. He expects the economy to be quite good in 2018 for both the US and Canada. A 15% pullback could be a possibility on a break up of NAFTA, but doesn't see anything disrupting their long-term business plan until a recession hits. If this stock drops below $100, that will be an opportunity. This is one you need to own if you want to own the North American economy.

Transportation

Is the ripping up of NAFTA a serious concern for them? Long-term, a good economy means a good stock for this company. He expects the economy to be quite good in 2018 for both the US and Canada. A 15% pullback could be a possibility on a break up of NAFTA, but doesn't see anything disrupting their long-term business plan until a recession hits. If this stock drops below $100, that will be an opportunity. This is one you need to own if you want to own the North American economy.

Transportation
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$101.870
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

January 10, 2018

Has a little bit of this, but his view is that 1) it might be acquired, and 2) it is always this company versus TransCanada (TRP-T). Right now he prefers TransCanada. You need to understand that Canadian pipelines are still in the utilities camp, even though they have growth embedded in their business plans. They are quasi-bond proxies. Right now, bond yields are going up and investors are going to wait to buy utilities.

oil/gas pipelines

Has a little bit of this, but his view is that 1) it might be acquired, and 2) it is always this company versus TransCanada (TRP-T). Right now he prefers TransCanada. You need to understand that Canadian pipelines are still in the utilities camp, even though they have growth embedded in their business plans. They are quasi-bond proxies. Right now, bond yields are going up and investors are going to wait to buy utilities.

oil/gas pipelines
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$49.110
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Fairfax Financial(FFH-T) 

January 10, 2018

Prem Watsa owns a lot of businesses in India, so if you want an indirect way to play India out of a very volatile ETF, this is a way to do it. They also run and Indian ETF. This is an insurance company, so there is a lot of hedging being done. The stock sometimes does better in a poorer market because of the hedges.

insurance

Prem Watsa owns a lot of businesses in India, so if you want an indirect way to play India out of a very volatile ETF, this is a way to do it. They also run and Indian ETF. This is an insurance company, so there is a lot of hedging being done. The stock sometimes does better in a poorer market because of the hedges.

insurance
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$651.000
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Freehold Royalties(FRU-T) 

January 10, 2018

One reason he likes this is that oil is over $60. It is very investable again. Money comes into the energy sector finally, in 2018. One of the few Canadian energy companies that raised its dividend, and he expects a similar one in March. A safe way to play energy because 95% of their business is royalties. They don't actually produce oil. A very stable earnings base. The stock is undervalued and under owned, so thinks it is a $16-$18 stock. Dividend yield of 4.3%. (Analysts' price target is $18.)

oil/gas

One reason he likes this is that oil is over $60. It is very investable again. Money comes into the energy sector finally, in 2018. One of the few Canadian energy companies that raised its dividend, and he expects a similar one in March. A safe way to play energy because 95% of their business is royalties. They don't actually produce oil. A very stable earnings base. The stock is undervalued and under owned, so thinks it is a $16-$18 stock. Dividend yield of 4.3%. (Analysts' price target is $18.)

oil/gas
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$14.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Magna Int'l. (A)(MG-T) 

January 10, 2018

There is a NAFTA concern which has kept him on the sidelines, but he is more concerned for the next couple of years on car sales, Peak Auto. There are also some issues on consumer car credits. Electric vehicles is a 10-year story, but will slowly eat into some business. He wants to see a good 1.5 years, to see where car sales are. If you own this, you might consider selling your holdings and looking at something else for the next 6 months to a year.

Automotive

There is a NAFTA concern which has kept him on the sidelines, but he is more concerned for the next couple of years on car sales, Peak Auto. There are also some issues on consumer car credits. Electric vehicles is a 10-year story, but will slowly eat into some business. He wants to see a good 1.5 years, to see where car sales are. If you own this, you might consider selling your holdings and looking at something else for the next 6 months to a year.

Automotive
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$71.440
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Overstock.com(OSTK-Q) 

January 10, 2018

This has piqued investors interests because of their investment in blockchain. Blockchain is a technology that sits high level, like a platform, which you can build upon. It is very useful to cut costs in pretty much any industry. Expect this will be widespread. He would let this stock settle down. Watch it for a couple of quarters. Parabolic charts are always scary.

investment companies/funds

This has piqued investors interests because of their investment in blockchain. Blockchain is a technology that sits high level, like a platform, which you can build upon. It is very useful to cut costs in pretty much any industry. Expect this will be widespread. He would let this stock settle down. Watch it for a couple of quarters. Parabolic charts are always scary.

investment companies/funds
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$79.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Pfizer Inc(PFE-N) 

January 10, 2018

Has a lot of money parked offshore, which they can now repatriate and do M&A with. They need M&A because they have a lacklustre pipeline of drugs. The stock has been dead money for 5 years. Trading at 13.5X PE, and the market trades at about 19X PE Forward. Very cheap. They’re growing the dividend and are buying back stock. EPS should go up, because of stock buybacks. Thinks the stock will be going up 15% because of all the tailwinds. Dividend yield of 3.7%. (Analysts' price target is $39.)

biotechnology/pharmaceutical

Has a lot of money parked offshore, which they can now repatriate and do M&A with. They need M&A because they have a lacklustre pipeline of drugs. The stock has been dead money for 5 years. Trading at 13.5X PE, and the market trades at about 19X PE Forward. Very cheap. They’re growing the dividend and are buying back stock. EPS should go up, because of stock buybacks. Thinks the stock will be going up 15% because of all the tailwinds. Dividend yield of 3.7%. (Analysts' price target is $39.)

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$36.470
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

January 10, 2018

The big question is, when will we get LNG on the West Coast of Canada. This was started to be talked about around 11-12 years ago, and we still don't have anything as a final investment decision. Most demand for natural gas is in the lower part of the US. We are exporting it to Mexico. There is lots of gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio that is being sucked down there first, and what is left is the stranded gas which was left in Canada. Expects that sometime in 2018, Shell goes ahead with this project, which will get the Canadian gas stocks finally moving. This is still 5 years away. Very speculative.

oil/gas

The big question is, when will we get LNG on the West Coast of Canada. This was started to be talked about around 11-12 years ago, and we still don't have anything as a final investment decision. Most demand for natural gas is in the lower part of the US. We are exporting it to Mexico. There is lots of gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio that is being sucked down there first, and what is left is the stranded gas which was left in Canada. Expects that sometime in 2018, Shell goes ahead with this project, which will get the Canadian gas stocks finally moving. This is still 5 years away. Very speculative.

oil/gas
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$2.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Praxair Inc(PX-N) 

January 10, 2018

A GDP global growth type of stock. It goes as industrials go and goes with GDP. A recession could happen in 2 to 3 years, so you could probably hold this for 18 months to 2 years. He would continue to hold as long as you continue to see strong economic numbers globally.

chemicals

A GDP global growth type of stock. It goes as industrials go and goes with GDP. A recession could happen in 2 to 3 years, so you could probably hold this for 18 months to 2 years. He would continue to hold as long as you continue to see strong economic numbers globally.

chemicals
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital ...

PricePrice
$162.620
Owned Owned
Unknown

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