Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3707 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 7, 2020
He is not bullish on them. A lot of the airline companies will need to be diluted. They are tradable as we reopen. In terms of cargo, he can't comment on how much he thinks they would be able to take market share.
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He is not bullish on them. A lot of the airline companies will need to be diluted. They are tradable as we reopen. In terms of cargo, he can't comment on how much he thinks they would be able to take market share.
Transportation
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 7, 2020
Educational Segment. When investors are bullish in markets, they are buying calls to participate in the upside. When there is an expectation of down-side, they buy puts. Looking at the markets, there is more buying of calls near highs and puts near lows. We are now seeing in the put-to-call ratio, we are at the 90th percentile. We are at an extreme point here. This tends to mean a 5-10% correction soon.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. When investors are bullish in markets, they are buying calls to participate in the upside. When there is an expectation of down-side, they buy puts. Looking at the markets, there is more buying of calls near highs and puts near lows. We are now seeing in the put-to-call ratio, we are at the 90th percentile. We are at an extreme point here. This tends to mean a 5-10% correction soon.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2020
We're seeing a lot of growth indicators, such as copper. The move towards a greener economy is moving copper. In terms of the S&P500, it was the biggest month since 1987, and small caps saw the biggest month ever. We see some rebalancing today.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWe're seeing a lot of growth indicators, such as copper. The move towards a greener economy is moving copper. In terms of the S&P500, it was the biggest month since 1987, and small caps saw the biggest month ever. We see some rebalancing today.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2020
The markets wants and needs the stimulus. The short term mistake is to not spend enough to get through the pandemic. Things will normalize in a couple years and we may get back to austerity and balanced budgets, but for the next couple years, governments are expected to spend. The central banks should continue to hold interest rates low.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe markets wants and needs the stimulus. The short term mistake is to not spend enough to get through the pandemic. Things will normalize in a couple years and we may get back to austerity and balanced budgets, but for the next couple years, governments are expected to spend. The central banks should continue to hold interest rates low.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2020
The year-end rebalancing shouldn't see too much changes between sector. There may be switching out of work from home names and to economic reopening stocks. The stocks that haven't performed because of covid will benefit the most as things normalize.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe year-end rebalancing shouldn't see too much changes between sector. There may be switching out of work from home names and to economic reopening stocks. The stocks that haven't performed because of covid will benefit the most as things normalize.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 30, 2020
When markets are in growth mode, this will outperform. When the market is trying to take risk off the table, these can see a pull back. To add to a position or to start one, you want to see some market volatility and weakness to get in. There are some great holdings. The biggest position is Tesla which poses some risk.
When markets are in growth mode, this will outperform. When the market is trying to take risk off the table, these can see a pull back. To add to a position or to start one, you want to see some market volatility and weakness to get in. There are some great holdings. The biggest position is Tesla which poses some risk.
E.T.F.'s
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
November 30, 2020
The interest rates should stay low and may even go lower. There is probably a couple more years of low interest rates anchored at 0%. He would look to exit this holding, especially since he expects the Canadian dollar to firm up next year.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe interest rates should stay low and may even go lower. There is probably a couple more years of low interest rates anchored at 0%. He would look to exit this holding, especially since he expects the Canadian dollar to firm up next year.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
November 30, 2020
GLD is the most liquid and actively traded one. It is a good way to hold gold bullions. If you want a currency hedge, he would use CGL. Gold stocks look cheap versus gold bullion right now.
investment companies/funds
BUY
BUY
November 30, 2020
GLD is the most liquid and actively traded one. It is a good way to hold gold bullions. If you want a currency hedge, he would use CGL. Gold stocks look cheap versus gold bullion right now.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2020
Canadian banks are much better run and offer good dividend yields compared to elsewhere in the world. There is some risk in the housing sector and some challenges to growth. He would favour ZWB right now. Once markets correct 10-15%, get out of the ZWB and get ZEB for the growth.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2020
Canadian banks are much better run and offer good dividend yields compared to elsewhere in the world. There is some risk in the housing sector and some challenges to growth. He would favour ZWB right now. Once markets correct 10-15%, get out of the ZWB and get ZEB for the growth.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2020
Educational Segment. In relationship to the longterm trend, and the 200-day moving average, the risk and return ratio is not as good as it could be. The market looks like one you don't want to chase rallies in. Given how far we have stretched from the mean, there is a high probability of a market correction around 10%. A note of caution for investors. Look into periods of weakness to be a buyer.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. In relationship to the longterm trend, and the 200-day moving average, the risk and return ratio is not as good as it could be. The market looks like one you don't want to chase rallies in. Given how far we have stretched from the mean, there is a high probability of a market correction around 10%. A note of caution for investors. Look into periods of weakness to be a buyer.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 23, 2020
Big move in the energy sector today with the good news on vaccines. Canadian banks are also back towards pre-covid levels. Vaccine distribution logistics and vaccination rates will also be important.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBig move in the energy sector today with the good news on vaccines. Canadian banks are also back towards pre-covid levels. Vaccine distribution logistics and vaccination rates will also be important.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 23, 2020
It gives exposure to the Dow with a currency hedge. It could be a good way to play it for Canadians in terms of exposure. He would stick to the S&P500 rather than to the Dow.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt gives exposure to the Dow with a currency hedge. It could be a good way to play it for Canadians in terms of exposure. He would stick to the S&P500 rather than to the Dow.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 23, 2020
The general rules is that if you think interest rates will rise, you want exposure to floating rate bonds. You may see some movement in terms of the bond markets pushing yields higher. However, the world probably works only in a low interest rate environment right now in the short term.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe general rules is that if you think interest rates will rise, you want exposure to floating rate bonds. You may see some movement in terms of the bond markets pushing yields higher. However, the world probably works only in a low interest rate environment right now in the short term.
E.T.F.'s
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