Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3541 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
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Chart
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August 7, 2020
Jobs report. Overall numbers were better than expected. The job recovery was always going to be slow. We should not expect a V shaped recovery. In the US, the number of permanent unemployment remained constant. The flexible and furlough are coming back, but there is still a large number of turnover. Markets are back to all time highs thanks to stimulus, which is remarkable.
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Jobs report. Overall numbers were better than expected. The job recovery was always going to be slow. We should not expect a V shaped recovery. In the US, the number of permanent unemployment remained constant. The flexible and furlough are coming back, but there is still a large number of turnover. Markets are back to all time highs thanks to stimulus, which is remarkable.
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August 7, 2020
US Government Stimulus. There is no hard deadline for coming up with a stimulus program. However, the consumer will feel the impact of delays. He expects a deal next week at around a trillion dollars.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS Government Stimulus. There is no hard deadline for coming up with a stimulus program. However, the consumer will feel the impact of delays. He expects a deal next week at around a trillion dollars.
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August 7, 2020
US and China Relations. The relation will probably continue to deteriorate. The battle with China will be measured in the next couple decades. The battle is about reserve currency status and technological dominance. The democrats want to take a different strategy by opening up dialogue with China. The fact that the economy is only working because of stimulus is a cause of concern.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS and China Relations. The relation will probably continue to deteriorate. The battle with China will be measured in the next couple decades. The battle is about reserve currency status and technological dominance. The democrats want to take a different strategy by opening up dialogue with China. The fact that the economy is only working because of stimulus is a cause of concern.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2020
Dividend cut. The timing of the dividend was not in line with the quarterly dividend payouts of the underlying securities. There are also many companies that have reduced or suspended dividends because of covid. Overall, dividend expectations have come down.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDividend cut. The timing of the dividend was not in line with the quarterly dividend payouts of the underlying securities. There are also many companies that have reduced or suspended dividends because of covid. Overall, dividend expectations have come down.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2020
Dividend cut. The timing of the dividend was not in line with the quarterly dividend payouts of the underlying securities. There are also many companies that have reduced or suspended dividends because of covid. Overall, dividend expectations have come down.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDividend cut. The timing of the dividend was not in line with the quarterly dividend payouts of the underlying securities. There are also many companies that have reduced or suspended dividends because of covid. Overall, dividend expectations have come down.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2020
Dividend cut. The timing of the dividend was not in line with the quarterly dividend payouts of the underlying securities. There are also many companies that have reduced or suspended dividends because of covid. Overall, dividend expectations have come down.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDividend cut. The timing of the dividend was not in line with the quarterly dividend payouts of the underlying securities. There are also many companies that have reduced or suspended dividends because of covid. Overall, dividend expectations have come down.
precious metals
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August 7, 2020
Energy. We're past the best-before date for carbon energy. Every peak will be lower than the last. He would reduce traditional energy sources and go into clean energy to play the sector.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEnergy. We're past the best-before date for carbon energy. Every peak will be lower than the last. He would reduce traditional energy sources and go into clean energy to play the sector.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2020
If you have a growth part of your portfolio, it should be in the TFSA. You want maximum growth in TFSA so he would not recommend it for these accounts.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIf you have a growth part of your portfolio, it should be in the TFSA. You want maximum growth in TFSA so he would not recommend it for these accounts.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2020
The Australian dollar has done well, but you have to remember that it is double leveraged. You could be right on the call but still lose money. It could be a good way to short the Australian dollar if you understand how it works.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe Australian dollar has done well, but you have to remember that it is double leveraged. You could be right on the call but still lose money. It could be a good way to short the Australian dollar if you understand how it works.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 7, 2020
Looking at where the exposure is at, 80% is in the US. There are some in China and there isn't more than 10 names that are in Europe. You want to buy the dips.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLooking at where the exposure is at, 80% is in the US. There are some in China and there isn't more than 10 names that are in Europe. You want to buy the dips.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
August 7, 2020
Renewable and infrastructure is a great sector They are also a great operator. A great way to play the new energy technologies of the future.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRenewable and infrastructure is a great sector They are also a great operator. A great way to play the new energy technologies of the future.
Utilities
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August 7, 2020
Educational segment. We're going to start getting results of the vaccine towards October. We will have an understanding of the efficacy of these vaccines before the elections. There is tremendous hope priced into markets. There is a high possibility that Trump will lose, but the most interesting elections will be in the senate. There are some swing states that will affect the senate greatly. The markets are melting up because of FOMO but there is more volatility and uncertainty looking ahead.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational segment. We're going to start getting results of the vaccine towards October. We will have an understanding of the efficacy of these vaccines before the elections. There is tremendous hope priced into markets. There is a high possibility that Trump will lose, but the most interesting elections will be in the senate. There are some swing states that will affect the senate greatly. The markets are melting up because of FOMO but there is more volatility and uncertainty looking ahead.
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July 31, 2020
US Debt. He believes it's been a long time coming for worries over US debt. If the USD wasn't the currency reserve of the world, it should be trading at AA-. They had to start printing money and it's been decades in the making. It won't mean much for market response until the rating drops by a couple firms.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS Debt. He believes it's been a long time coming for worries over US debt. If the USD wasn't the currency reserve of the world, it should be trading at AA-. They had to start printing money and it's been decades in the making. It won't mean much for market response until the rating drops by a couple firms.
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July 31, 2020
Tech earnings. The market was delighted for earnings. For Facebook, the backing away of many companies from the social media site has not affected the earnings so much. The firms with data will be hit hardest by anti-trust, like Google or Facebook. He expects some pain coming.
Show full opinionHide full opinionTech earnings. The market was delighted for earnings. For Facebook, the backing away of many companies from the social media site has not affected the earnings so much. The firms with data will be hit hardest by anti-trust, like Google or Facebook. He expects some pain coming.
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July 31, 2020
Market performance. The S&P 500 was up 1.7% on the week. It's been an okay week. We now have 3/4 of the large cap stocks report. There is a 30-35% of Russell 2000 small caps reporting their earnings next week. The pain is more in the small cap.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket performance. The S&P 500 was up 1.7% on the week. It's been an okay week. We now have 3/4 of the large cap stocks report. There is a 30-35% of Russell 2000 small caps reporting their earnings next week. The pain is more in the small cap.
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