Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
Reveal Expert Rating
3846 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
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COMMENT
COMMENT
March 8, 2021
Inflation. There was an expectation that the Fed would talk about twisting the yield curve or supporting yield. The weakness we are seeing in equities over the last week so far, due to the stress from bond yields, is not upsetting the Feds. The March 17 meeting is a big focus. Investors expect talks about more liquidity to account for the stimulus. The debt needs to be paid, but the economy can't afford more yield. They might twist the yield curve and monetize the debt.
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Inflation. There was an expectation that the Fed would talk about twisting the yield curve or supporting yield. The weakness we are seeing in equities over the last week so far, due to the stress from bond yields, is not upsetting the Feds. The March 17 meeting is a big focus. Investors expect talks about more liquidity to account for the stimulus. The debt needs to be paid, but the economy can't afford more yield. They might twist the yield curve and monetize the debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 8, 2021
Gold. The story is about real interest rates. As the nominal yields go down, it signifies slower economy. Then there is a real aspect, which is the inflation side. The real driving factor is negative real yield. In the last couple months, nominal yields have been rising and inflation expectations have not kept up. Real inflation has been rising and has been a knock against gold. With additional debt, governments need negative real yields. Bitcoin has also taken away money that would have gone to gold bullion.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold. The story is about real interest rates. As the nominal yields go down, it signifies slower economy. Then there is a real aspect, which is the inflation side. The real driving factor is negative real yield. In the last couple months, nominal yields have been rising and inflation expectations have not kept up. Real inflation has been rising and has been a knock against gold. With additional debt, governments need negative real yields. Bitcoin has also taken away money that would have gone to gold bullion.
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2021
An equal weight global mining companies. There are aluminum, copper, steel, nickel, zinc, etc. A decent way to play the space.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAn equal weight global mining companies. There are aluminum, copper, steel, nickel, zinc, etc. A decent way to play the space.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2021
Overall, as society ages, healthcare will become a more important part. The cost of healthcare will cause government pushback on big pharma. It is a growth area. Healthcare technology will be a big part of growth. There is the underlying dividends and covered calls.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOverall, as society ages, healthcare will become a more important part. The cost of healthcare will cause government pushback on big pharma. It is a growth area. Healthcare technology will be a big part of growth. There is the underlying dividends and covered calls.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2021
A covered called strategy. Utilities, telecos, and some pipelines. There are different elements of utility type stocks. Interest rate sensitive. Has high dividend payers. With market volatility likely to be elevated, the premiums will remain decent.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA covered called strategy. Utilities, telecos, and some pipelines. There are different elements of utility type stocks. Interest rate sensitive. Has high dividend payers. With market volatility likely to be elevated, the premiums will remain decent.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 8, 2021
Has come off of its highs and he has bought some more on the weakness. Plug Power is a large part of the fund and the company likely will not have earnings until 2023-2024. Interest rates have hurt the speculative names. Over the long term, the sector is a growth area.
Has come off of its highs and he has bought some more on the weakness. Plug Power is a large part of the fund and the company likely will not have earnings until 2023-2024. Interest rates have hurt the speculative names. Over the long term, the sector is a growth area.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 8, 2021
A strategy to get technology with covered call overlay for yield. Short-term, he is underweight technology. Has big tech in the US too. Would wait for a 5-10% pullback before stepping in. There is more risk in the short-term.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA strategy to get technology with covered call overlay for yield. Short-term, he is underweight technology. Has big tech in the US too. Would wait for a 5-10% pullback before stepping in. There is more risk in the short-term.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 8, 2021
One of the best alternatives to replace coal and gas energy is nuclear. He believes there will be a renaissance in the sector as the world realizes it is a safe, clean source. The green trade and speculation is driving the price up. You can buy dips.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOne of the best alternatives to replace coal and gas energy is nuclear. He believes there will be a renaissance in the sector as the world realizes it is a safe, clean source. The green trade and speculation is driving the price up. You can buy dips.
non-base metal mining
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 8, 2021
Educational Segment. There is a lot of talk about interest rates going up. According to the congressional budget office, 86% of ever tax dollar goes towards mandatory costs in 2021. The deficits are getting worse. The percentage of interest cost as percentage of GDP is 1.38%. In 2031, it will be 2.43%. The central banks are buying the debt and monetizing. This will be a permanent feature. When inflation comes up, it will put stress on the system. Central banks cannot have higher interest rates.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. There is a lot of talk about interest rates going up. According to the congressional budget office, 86% of ever tax dollar goes towards mandatory costs in 2021. The deficits are getting worse. The percentage of interest cost as percentage of GDP is 1.38%. In 2031, it will be 2.43%. The central banks are buying the debt and monetizing. This will be a permanent feature. When inflation comes up, it will put stress on the system. Central banks cannot have higher interest rates.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
OPEC. The Saudis have reduced production. Can they can keep oil prices higher? The demand for energy will increase as the world re-opens. The world does not need higher oil prices. Oil producing countries do want higher prices. The world is well supplied. There are calls for $100 oil. $60 oil is probably in the upper range of oil. Looking at the futures market on crude oil, there is an inversion in the curve. Futures are still pushing towards $50. For the next year or so, there may be elevated prices but it is tough to sustain. Demand may never come back to pre-covid levels.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOPEC. The Saudis have reduced production. Can they can keep oil prices higher? The demand for energy will increase as the world re-opens. The world does not need higher oil prices. Oil producing countries do want higher prices. The world is well supplied. There are calls for $100 oil. $60 oil is probably in the upper range of oil. Looking at the futures market on crude oil, there is an inversion in the curve. Futures are still pushing towards $50. For the next year or so, there may be elevated prices but it is tough to sustain. Demand may never come back to pre-covid levels.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Bond yields. When Powell was asked his thoughts on higher yields, his response was benign. However, the world cannot handle higher yields. How much higher can yields go before the equities markets get stressed? We saw some hints last week that the markets get choppy with slightly higher yields.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBond yields. When Powell was asked his thoughts on higher yields, his response was benign. However, the world cannot handle higher yields. How much higher can yields go before the equities markets get stressed? We saw some hints last week that the markets get choppy with slightly higher yields.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
The viewer was seeking an equal-weight ETF that contained the top 15-20 Canadian tech companies. A market cap weighted ETF of Canadian tech. It is dominated by Shopify, Onyx, CGI. RYT is the American alternative that is equal weight for US large-cap tech that has around 70 names.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
The viewer was seeking an equal-weight ETF that contained the top 15-20 Canadian tech companies. A market cap weighted ETF of Canadian tech. It is dominated by Shopify, Onyx, CGI. RYT is the American alternative that is equal weight for US large-cap tech that has around 70 names.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Buying US stocks with Canadian dollars. The CAD has strengthened much more than expected. It is linked to OPEC tightening supply and oil prices going higher. Fundamentally, the CAD should be around $0.75. There is a case when there is reflation and oil prices that rise. 75 - 85 cents is the broad range for the next couple years. You could hedge the foreign currency exposure. You could dip into buying US stocks since he does not think the CAD will go below 75 cents in the near term.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBuying US stocks with Canadian dollars. The CAD has strengthened much more than expected. It is linked to OPEC tightening supply and oil prices going higher. Fundamentally, the CAD should be around $0.75. There is a case when there is reflation and oil prices that rise. 75 - 85 cents is the broad range for the next couple years. You could hedge the foreign currency exposure. You could dip into buying US stocks since he does not think the CAD will go below 75 cents in the near term.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
The caller requested suggestions for higher dividend ETF. There's a number of ways to play it. Go to an ETF website to see which ETF fits your profile. Covered calls provide higher dividends.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe caller requested suggestions for higher dividend ETF. There's a number of ways to play it. Go to an ETF website to see which ETF fits your profile. Covered calls provide higher dividends.
E.T.F.'s
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