Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


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2017-10-23

COMMENT
iShares CNX Nifty India (XID-T)

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $34.200
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-23

COMMENT
BMO India Equity Hedged to CAD ETF (ZID-T)

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $22.290
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-23

COMMENT
BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET (ZWE-T)

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $22.230
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-23

COMMENT
BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF (ZWU-T)

The .U units are in US$ and not a lot of people are using them.  Its liquidity is that of the underlying securities.  The market maker creates more units as required.  There is no need to worry about liquidity just because the ETF is thinly traded.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $14.000
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-16

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market.  US earnings are starting on a so-so footing.  The banks started off and given the low volatility of the market, trading volumes were lower than expected.  Revenue growth year over year was not as great as expected so markets were soft.  Banks’ profitability is based on the yield curve and so he does not get excited about the rising interest rate environment because the yield curve is getting flattened.  If you add three more rate hikes, by Q3, we get an inverted yield curve and that predicts recession in 2019.  He does not want to chase markets higher.  Defense is called for.  We are in the worse seasonal period of the year and yet markets have gone higher.  Mid to end of October is historically the worst part of this.  He is waiting for today’s unveiling of the new income tax changes in Canada.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-16

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Currency.  If people sell the dollar, where is the other side of that trade?  The Canadian dollar is not big enough for the sale of US dollars.  The Euro can’t be because the Euro will break up soon.  The Japanese Yen is a possibility and he does not think we will see a flight to Chinese Yuan.  Don’t worry about the dollar.  It is not going anywhere any time soon.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-16

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-16

BUY
Horizons Intl Developed Markets Equity Index ETF. (HXDM-T)

It is a very good strategy.  They don’t own the stocks but buy a derivate (futures based swap contract) so you don’t get a tax withholding.  This is an advantage in taxable accounts.  It’s only been out a short while.  It is a very good product for people focusing on tax efficiency.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $32.100
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-16

WEAK BUY
Mastercard Inc. (MA-N)

When the consumer is at risk, such as in an economic slowdown, it is this one that underperforms.  When the economy performs well and credit is building it does well.  He is cautious right now.  He thinks it is extended and is late cycle.  This is a payment processor and not a lender.  Non-payment risk goes to the underlying financial institutions.

other services
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $146.220
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-16

HOLD
Maple Leaf Foods (MFI-T)

There is some short term resistance.  There is nothing wrong technically.  He would be concerned if we took out the lows from the last couple of months.  The long term trend line looks good.  He is not concerned right now.

food processing
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $33.290
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-16

DON'T BUY
Precision Drilling (PD-T)

The energy sector is challenged.  He has owned this one on and off over the years.  When there is potential growth in drilling this is a go to stock.  It seems the lack of pipelines out of Canada will be a problem.  This stock will probably not have a material rally.  If we have a regime change in 2019 and there is more openness to pipelines we get a change.

oil/gas field services
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $3.270
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-16

WATCH
iShares DEX Universe Bond ETF (XBB-T)

The broad Canadian bond market.  The interest rate risk on the broader market is at 7 which mean if we see a 100 basis point increase in interest rates, you will lose about 7% in terms of capital.  It is not time to step in yet.  If interest rates went up 25 basis points then it would be time to move in.  Don’t extend duration until interest rates go up a little but.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $30.780
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-16

BUY on WEAKNESS
BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred (ZPR-T)

Laddered preferreds.  They do well in rising interest rate environments.  Fundamentally it is not cheap here.  He got a lot a year ago.  He does not like the relative value here.  He would buy into weakness on a pull pack.  That could happen in December.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $11.790
Owned: No

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2017-10-02

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market.  Market expectations on tax reform were for nothing getting done.  Now it looks like they will put all their weight in getting a tax package done.  Whatever they get done should be disappointing and we should get a sell-the-news reaction.  Over the last three months earnings revisions have gone down on the S&P.  Canadian tax changes will mean nothing to markets initially but over the long term it may discourage the Canadian entrepreneur.  The government of Spain may fall as a region tries to separate but markets are not reacting.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-02

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

CAD$.  On the rate hike front, the BOC is more likely to match the US Fed.  He would not look for an October move -- December maybe.  In the next 6 months the CAD$ will go from 79 to 83 cents.  Below 80 cents he wants to be hedged.  He is fully hedged today.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 5:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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