Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
Reveal Expert Rating
3859 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
Signal
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Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Crypto. Wouldn't recommend for the average investor. However, if you are going to invest, invest in the TFSA so you don't have to pay taxes on it. Good for speculative plays.
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Crypto. Wouldn't recommend for the average investor. However, if you are going to invest, invest in the TFSA so you don't have to pay taxes on it. Good for speculative plays.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Utilities are good for yield seekers. Could look at ZWU with broader based with utilities + other dividend players as well as some US exposure. Overall, good for income.
Utilities are good for yield seekers. Could look at ZWU with broader based with utilities + other dividend players as well as some US exposure. Overall, good for income.
E.T.F.'s
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
April 5, 2021
A steel ETF that covers stocks like Rio Tinto, Cleveland Cliff, etc.. The best way to play the global steel sector. Look at the 10 year chart to get perspective. We have seen a good rally already. A classic cyclical play. We are getting to the top end of the range. Not early.
A steel ETF that covers stocks like Rio Tinto, Cleveland Cliff, etc.. The best way to play the global steel sector. Look at the 10 year chart to get perspective. We have seen a good rally already. A classic cyclical play. We are getting to the top end of the range. Not early.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
April 5, 2021
Utilities are a natural place to go to diversify with lower risk. Rate sensitive. Has BCE, Telus, telcos as well as pipelines on top of utilities. Will consistently return 6% to investor with limited volatility.
E.T.F.'s
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
April 5, 2021
You have to like financial services industry. There is a lot they do under their umbrella. A growth area. It is sensitive to capital markets. Must be cautious. Closer to a high than its low. Not early.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou have to like financial services industry. There is a lot they do under their umbrella. A growth area. It is sensitive to capital markets. Must be cautious. Closer to a high than its low. Not early.
mngmnt/diversified
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Bond ETF. Bond funds have interest rate sensitivity risk, duration risk. It is different from doing a laddered strategy yourself. The world is so sensitive to interest rates so bonds will be a bad investment for a while. A traditional 60-40 balanced portfolios will see stress. It will be a problem for the next couple decades. Central banks will probably continue to monetize the debt.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBond ETF. Bond funds have interest rate sensitivity risk, duration risk. It is different from doing a laddered strategy yourself. The world is so sensitive to interest rates so bonds will be a bad investment for a while. A traditional 60-40 balanced portfolios will see stress. It will be a problem for the next couple decades. Central banks will probably continue to monetize the debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Educational Segment. Earnings season is starting next week. Markets will be focusing on the earnings. S&P is now up to $174/share. With the S&P over $4000, the multiple we pay for the earnings is getting pretty high. The multiple of the market should be 16.5x, which is fair value. If we use a multiple of 20x, you get a $200/share number. Before covid, for 2021, we were expecting $200. Now 2022 expectations are at $200. The earnings are discounted into the future. The markets are expensive here. May will be interesting and we could see selling into strength.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Earnings season is starting next week. Markets will be focusing on the earnings. S&P is now up to $174/share. With the S&P over $4000, the multiple we pay for the earnings is getting pretty high. The multiple of the market should be 16.5x, which is fair value. If we use a multiple of 20x, you get a $200/share number. Before covid, for 2021, we were expecting $200. Now 2022 expectations are at $200. The earnings are discounted into the future. The markets are expensive here. May will be interesting and we could see selling into strength.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Market oulook. Expects strong economic rebound. The stimulus will generate economic growth. The numbers will get better for a couple months with earnings upgrades. This should buoy the markets. The Feds have promised support for years to come.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket oulook. Expects strong economic rebound. The stimulus will generate economic growth. The numbers will get better for a couple months with earnings upgrades. This should buoy the markets. The Feds have promised support for years to come.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Bond yields. In the short run, the bond seasonal are good. We have to pay for the stimulus, and the bond supply will dwarf the amount by the Feds through QE. Next quarter is good, the quarter after could be a challenge for fixed income investments. The natural rate of economic growth is anemic. We will not be able to create a type of economic growth without stimulus.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBond yields. In the short run, the bond seasonal are good. We have to pay for the stimulus, and the bond supply will dwarf the amount by the Feds through QE. Next quarter is good, the quarter after could be a challenge for fixed income investments. The natural rate of economic growth is anemic. We will not be able to create a type of economic growth without stimulus.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Monetizing debt. It means quantitative easing, where the interest payments just goes back to the government. It is the same as printing currency.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMonetizing debt. It means quantitative easing, where the interest payments just goes back to the government. It is the same as printing currency.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Educational Segment. Focusing on the ETF KWEB, Chinese tech stocks. The volatility in Chinese tech stocks has occurred since the ANT group IPO was cancelled following the Jack Ma comments. There has since been some sanctions and fines levied against big name tech companies in China. We are seeing a divergence in BABA stocks since then with it losing a third of its value. Amazon has been sideways. The anti-trust saga is much broader. Would not touch KWEB until it is 10-15% lower. Long term, you do have to like these companies but there will be more shakeout.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Focusing on the ETF KWEB, Chinese tech stocks. The volatility in Chinese tech stocks has occurred since the ANT group IPO was cancelled following the Jack Ma comments. There has since been some sanctions and fines levied against big name tech companies in China. We are seeing a divergence in BABA stocks since then with it losing a third of its value. Amazon has been sideways. The anti-trust saga is much broader. Would not touch KWEB until it is 10-15% lower. Long term, you do have to like these companies but there will be more shakeout.
BUY
BUY
March 29, 2021
For yield seekers, this is a good way to get exposure to some of the best dividend payers in Europe. There is no reason there will be reason to change. During covid, dividend stocks did get crushed so it is not a proxy for bonds. Nothing wrong with using it to get exposure to yield.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFor yield seekers, this is a good way to get exposure to some of the best dividend payers in Europe. There is no reason there will be reason to change. During covid, dividend stocks did get crushed so it is not a proxy for bonds. Nothing wrong with using it to get exposure to yield.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 29, 2021
Would shy away from the NASDAQ in the short term. Long term, you gotta love tech but we will see some normalization. What worked last year was large cap tech and the valuations have gotten stretched. Could see little growth and consolidation and it will probably go sideways.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWould shy away from the NASDAQ in the short term. Long term, you gotta love tech but we will see some normalization. What worked last year was large cap tech and the valuations have gotten stretched. Could see little growth and consolidation and it will probably go sideways.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
There is a good dividend on shaw. It could be a year before the deal closes. It is hard to know all the details and there is stock list. The market is pretty good at pricing in where value is. It is not a no-brainer to buy it here in terms of the Rogers deal.
Cable
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
March 29, 2021
It is all about inflation expectation and break even analysis. Inflation expectations have spiked considerably. We may not realize these levels for the next few years. Would not chase here. Hasn't added to it. Better to sell into strength since there are more deflationary forces. Have to watch wages. If they increase significantly, there will be real inflation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is all about inflation expectation and break even analysis. Inflation expectations have spiked considerably. We may not realize these levels for the next few years. Would not chase here. Hasn't added to it. Better to sell into strength since there are more deflationary forces. Have to watch wages. If they increase significantly, there will be real inflation.
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