Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3696 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
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COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
The relationship between the US and China will be strained for years. The US is overvalued compared to China. This ETF excludes the Chinese market so it could be a choice for investors who want to invest in Asia but is wary of the politics with China.
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The relationship between the US and China will be strained for years. The US is overvalued compared to China. This ETF excludes the Chinese market so it could be a choice for investors who want to invest in Asia but is wary of the politics with China.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
ZFH-T is exposure to short-term high yield credit using a swap strategy to mitigate the interest rate risk. You still get credit risk. ZHY trade more like equities than bonds. People are seeking the higher yields. A floating rate note mitigates the interest rate risk only.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
ZFH is exposure to short-term high yield credit using a swap strategy to mitigate the interest rate risk. You still get credit risk. ZHY trade more like equities than bonds. People are seeking the higher yields. A floating rate note mitigates the interest rate risk only.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
The global infrastructure ETFs are not the way to play future infrastructure spending by countries. ZGI is a way to play traditional infrastructure like utilities, pipelines and telecos.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe global infrastructure ETFs are not the way to play future infrastructure spending by countries. ZGI is a way to play traditional infrastructure like utilities, pipelines and telecos.
E.T.F.'s
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
December 14, 2020
Short term, this is over-bought. In Q1 next year, there might be pullback. He is looking to trim some of his holdings from a tactical perspective but he will not sell his full position. Copper is particular interesting.
Show full opinionHide full opinionShort term, this is over-bought. In Q1 next year, there might be pullback. He is looking to trim some of his holdings from a tactical perspective but he will not sell his full position. Copper is particular interesting.
E.T.F.'s
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
December 14, 2020
Exposure to the covid vaccine is quite minimal in this ETF. Very short term over-bought and he expects a 10-15% correction. Trim some exposure into strength. Longer term, the biotech sector looks good.
Show full opinionHide full opinionExposure to the covid vaccine is quite minimal in this ETF. Very short term over-bought and he expects a 10-15% correction. Trim some exposure into strength. Longer term, the biotech sector looks good.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Both the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBoth the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Both the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBoth the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
E.T.F.'s
HOLD
HOLD
December 14, 2020
This is the best way for high dividend seekers to get exposure outside of North America. During covid, we saw high dividend payers sell off more than others. As the economy rebalances, the stock should do well. He boosted exposure to this sector.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThis is the best way for high dividend seekers to get exposure outside of North America. During covid, we saw high dividend payers sell off more than others. As the economy rebalances, the stock should do well. He boosted exposure to this sector.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Educational Segment. Seasonality matters some times and other times not at all. In the US, there is the presidential cycle that creates this pattern of spending. Right now, the Santa Claus rally is at its most powerful. In the first year of the presidential cycle, the pattern changes. January and February does not bode well in terms of returns. There will be a good opportunity in Q1 to put money to work.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Seasonality matters some times and other times not at all. In the US, there is the presidential cycle that creates this pattern of spending. Right now, the Santa Claus rally is at its most powerful. In the first year of the presidential cycle, the pattern changes. January and February does not bode well in terms of returns. There will be a good opportunity in Q1 to put money to work.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 7, 2020
Stimulus. We probably won't get a massive spending bill like what the Democrats were hoping for. Democrats are really hoping to swing the senate in Georgia in January which could help them get more stimulus. Very much a political hot potato. How the Feds and Central Bank will monetize the debt is also a key point to watch.
Show full opinionHide full opinionStimulus. We probably won't get a massive spending bill like what the Democrats were hoping for. Democrats are really hoping to swing the senate in Georgia in January which could help them get more stimulus. Very much a political hot potato. How the Feds and Central Bank will monetize the debt is also a key point to watch.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 7, 2020
Senate. Markets would like having Democrats in the senate for the stimulus. However, markets like checks and balances. If central banks pull back, markets will have a difficult time.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSenate. Markets would like having Democrats in the senate for the stimulus. However, markets like checks and balances. If central banks pull back, markets will have a difficult time.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
December 7, 2020
Companies like Apple are now bringing semi-conductors back in-house and the sector is seeing many changes. It's hard to see who will be the winner. The sector has run tremendously so he would wait for a pullback before putting money in.
Companies like Apple are now bringing semi-conductors back in-house and the sector is seeing many changes. It's hard to see who will be the winner. The sector has run tremendously so he would wait for a pullback before putting money in.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
December 7, 2020
Companies like Apple are now bringing semi-conductors back in-house and the sector is seeing many changes. It's hard to see who will be the winner. The sector has run tremendously so he would wait for a pullback before putting money in.
Companies like Apple are now bringing semi-conductors back in-house and the sector is seeing many changes. It's hard to see who will be the winner. The sector has run tremendously so he would wait for a pullback before putting money in.
Unknown
BUY
BUY
December 7, 2020
It is not a replacement for fixed income since there will be equity market volatility. However, it yields around 7% and is a sort of proxy for low bond rates.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is not a replacement for fixed income since there will be equity market volatility. However, it yields around 7% and is a sort of proxy for low bond rates.
E.T.F.'s
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