Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2017-11-06

BUY
BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET (ZWE-T)

Europe, high dividends, CAD$ hedged.  Don’t look for another 22% return, however.  He gets some downside protection and a yield of about 5%.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $22.390
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-30

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market.  New highs but the TSX has been lagging world markets for a considerable time.  We are heavily weighted in banks and energy.  The banks bounced back and we had some GDP growth.  Curbing the growth in housing is going to be a huge problem.  Oil will stay at $50 for 5 years so there is not a lot of optimism for growth.  It looks like in the US we are going to get a vote on the tax bill in mid-January.  This will not solve any of the problems the US economy has.  AMZN-Q is destructive.  The stock has been the best stock for the last 15 years (38% over the last 15 years).  They lost almost a billion dollars in their core retail operation.  They are only great at disrupting so where is this going to go.  As a value investor he does not get the story.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-30

SPECULATIVE BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Uranium as a contrarian Investment.  It has been a value trap for many years.  Look at URA-N.  It does look like there is a longer term bottom forming.  He likes it.  This is a speculative area he would be okay having a percent in.  He does not have any right now.  We are getting close to this.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: No

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2017-10-30

DON'T BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Energy.  He does not like the energy sector.  He likes what they are doing for fracking over the next 5 years but he is not company specific.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
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2017-10-30

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Gold.  He thought we could get to $1300 where he is a seller and he is a buyer at $1100.  He is adding to his exposures at $1250.  It is in a trading range.  He does not see it breaking for the next year. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-30

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  The Canadian Dollar.  It has been on a roller coaster ride this year.  The 2 year spread between US and Canadian is the highest correlation to the Canadian dollar.  Our bonds usually yield more than the US.  But back in 2015 that changed.  Short term this is a negative factor.  In the futures market, speculators in the Canadian dollar shorted this year but now are net long.  That potentially has some downside for the dollar.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-30

DON'T BUY
Aphria Inc (APH-T)

He prefers to play the broad space rather than figure out who wins the race.  He prefers the HMMJ-T ETF.  We are close to a market high so he thinks the market risk is high.  The next broader market correction will pull this one back.  He would keep your powder dry.  In a 10% allocation to speculation he would put 1% in Marijuana.  Maybe 3 or 4 if you are really speculative.  He would prefer speculating more in AI.

agriculture
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $7.290
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-30

PARTIAL SELL
iShares Cdn Financial Monthly Income ETF (FIE-T)

Preferreds and dividend payers.  It is a great holding bu concentrated in the sector.  It is at all time highs.  He is reducing his exposure to the financial sector now.  If it goes higher he would reduce more.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $7.550
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-30

DON'T BUY
HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+ (HNU-T)

A double leverage natural gas ETF.  He would not hold for the long term.  Go for HNY-T as you lose 3-5% per month based on losses in the nature of the futures contracts in the leveraged ETF.  He also likes the Junior Natural Gas ETF ZJN-T for longer term.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $4.980
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-30

WATCH
Global X Lithium E.T.F. (LIT-N)

There is froth in the sector and he would wait for a 20% minimum pullback before nibbling at these companies.  We should get a correction and you should buy the correction.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $38.960
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market.  He expects a big week in earnings.  FNG-N has all the FANG stocks that are reporting this week.  You had a pretty big run up and then some weakness.  His gut feel is that we should get a bit of a sell-the-news action.  He likes the idea of diversification and this is a very niche ETF.  He feels the FED will continue to step on the breaks and try to raise interest rates.  The ECB is doing the same thing.  It will be a challenge over the next year.  It is the beginning of the unwind for them.  He does not have a strong feeling to sell Europe at present, though.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

The long term implication of an inverted yield curve.  Prior to every recession we ever had we saw an inverted yield curve.  It forecasts a recession well out from the present.  We should get a bounce short term in the curve but longer term we should get an inversion.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-23

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Sleep at night portfolios (mutual finds Larry manages for BMO).  Some combination of the three will fit most people’s portfolios.  The global dividend fund is suitable for most people.  The global balanced fund is currently yielding about 4%.  All three manage risk when it comes up.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Seasonality.  The seasonal pattern has not worked this year (Sell in May and Go Away).  There was no market correction in Sept./Oct.  Since we did not get a correction you might say we will not get much of a seasonal impact for the rest of the year.  He looked into history and over 30 years in years where we did not get that seasonal correction, the market just continued up and the seasonality in November December is even stronger, although sometimes the correction is just later in the year.  Seasonality is just one factor to incorporate into your investing decisions.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-23

COMMENT
iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q)

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $23.150
Owned: Unknown

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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 5:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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