Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3696 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2021
Educational Segment. At market tops, where we see divergencies in stock price and momentum there is market breadth. When there is market breadth, we usually get good follow through. Over the next couple weeks, he is keeping an eye out for market breadth indicators that points to volatility in Q1. Q1 should offer a buying opportunity. Market breadth is very strong and average stocks should see some performance. He would shy away from over invested large cap tech where we could see under performance. He has shifted from large cap names to an equal weight allocation.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Educational Segment. At market tops, where we see divergencies in stock price and momentum there is market breadth. When there is market breadth, we usually get good follow through. Over the next couple weeks, he is keeping an eye out for market breadth indicators that points to volatility in Q1. Q1 should offer a buying opportunity. Market breadth is very strong and average stocks should see some performance. He would shy away from over invested large cap tech where we could see under performance. He has shifted from large cap names to an equal weight allocation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The new strain from the UK underscores the hope that the markets have formed under the presumption of the vaccine and government aid. There are real growth challenges and it is not a surprise to see set backs. The markets are really over valued, but he is unsure if we will get to fair market value without a major policy mistake. Central Banks must continue stimulus.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe new strain from the UK underscores the hope that the markets have formed under the presumption of the vaccine and government aid. There are real growth challenges and it is not a surprise to see set backs. The markets are really over valued, but he is unsure if we will get to fair market value without a major policy mistake. Central Banks must continue stimulus.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
There are still 20M people receiving benefits in the US. There is more stimulus coming but it will not pass until the new congress, probably in February.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere are still 20M people receiving benefits in the US. There is more stimulus coming but it will not pass until the new congress, probably in February.
BUY
BUY
December 21, 2020
It has credit card companies, Square, Paypal. It has players developing the tech or processing payment. A good way to play the digital payment space.
Financial Services
BUY
BUY
December 21, 2020
Gold. Very bullish on gold. Central banks want to anchor interest rates at 0 and there are inflationary pressures.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold. Very bullish on gold. Central banks want to anchor interest rates at 0 and there are inflationary pressures.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 21, 2020
It is a great way to see different places and lots of people are looking forward to going on a cruise. However, the recovery will be after covid. Cruises are a virus hotspot. They will not be making any money for a year or so. This has already been priced in.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is a great way to see different places and lots of people are looking forward to going on a cruise. However, the recovery will be after covid. Cruises are a virus hotspot. They will not be making any money for a year or so. This has already been priced in.
Transportation
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The difference between ZWE and ZWP is the currency hedge. If you think the CAD will do worse than European currencies, then you want a ZWP. If you think the CAD will strengthen against these currencies, get ZWE. He recently swapped into ZWP since he wants foreign currency exposure.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The difference between ZWE and ZWP is the currency hedge. If you think the CAD will do worse than European currencies, then you want a ZWP. If you think the CAD will strengthen against these currencies, get ZWE. He recently swapped into ZWP since he wants foreign currency exposure.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
December 21, 2020
The caveat for this ETF is that Tesla is grossly overvalued. The only reason for buying Tesla was for the inclusion in the S&P. They currently trades at $1.5M per car they will sell next year.
The caveat for this ETF is that Tesla is grossly overvalued. The only reason for buying Tesla was for the inclusion in the S&P. They currently trades at $1.5M per car they will sell next year.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
Educational Segment. The expectations for the S&P 500 varies in range from the low end of 3800 and the high end of 4400. Consensus for earnings is $172 with a multiple around 23 or 24. You get an average target of 4085. There may be as much as 10% upside. Every metric for valuing the market is in the 100 percentile. The US market has never been more expensive. EV to EBITDA is at the most expensive it has every been.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. The expectations for the S&P 500 varies in range from the low end of 3800 and the high end of 4400. Consensus for earnings is $172 with a multiple around 23 or 24. You get an average target of 4085. There may be as much as 10% upside. Every metric for valuing the market is in the 100 percentile. The US market has never been more expensive. EV to EBITDA is at the most expensive it has every been.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
The markets are excited for a stimulus bill but there is wide disagreement between the Democrats and the Republicans on what it should look like. It will come down to the Georgia senate race. It could be February when we see a big stimulus bill.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe markets are excited for a stimulus bill but there is wide disagreement between the Democrats and the Republicans on what it should look like. It will come down to the Georgia senate race. It could be February when we see a big stimulus bill.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
US Index Rebalancing. Tesla is the biggest stock to be added to an index in terms of its influence. It means that you have to sell proportionally the other big names to allocate to Tesla. The stock is very overvalued. The indexers will get hooped here, and there will be significant selling following its index inclusion.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS Index Rebalancing. Tesla is the biggest stock to be added to an index in terms of its influence. It means that you have to sell proportionally the other big names to allocate to Tesla. The stock is very overvalued. The indexers will get hooped here, and there will be significant selling following its index inclusion.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Federal Reserve. It is unlikely they will say they will do more. They need fiscal spending to monetize the debt. They are expected to reiterate their commitment to do more with fiscal spending. Longer-end rates are rising and they want to contain these rates.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFederal Reserve. It is unlikely they will say they will do more. They need fiscal spending to monetize the debt. They are expected to reiterate their commitment to do more with fiscal spending. Longer-end rates are rising and they want to contain these rates.
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