Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3541 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
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No Berman's Call this week due to holiday.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 21, 2020
Recent market activity has nothing to do with seasonality. The speculative bubble with small traders, options market and hedging have come unwound. The market did not like the fact the Feds did not commit to more quantitative easing.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Recent market activity has nothing to do with seasonality. The speculative bubble with small traders, options market and hedging have come unwound. The market did not like the fact the Feds did not commit to more quantitative easing.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 21, 2020
He hopes that Feds never start buying equities. Japan has been buying equities for years and that has not helped. The market is now testing the froth and they will correct until the Feds steps up.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe hopes that Feds never start buying equities. Japan has been buying equities for years and that has not helped. The market is now testing the froth and they will correct until the Feds steps up.
WATCH
WATCH
September 21, 2020
One of his top picks long-term. The disruptive nature of tech will continue to be a trend. There is a Canadian version out now through Emerge. There may be some more correction on the way, so he would wait to purchase.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOne of his top picks long-term. The disruptive nature of tech will continue to be a trend. There is a Canadian version out now through Emerge. There may be some more correction on the way, so he would wait to purchase.
Technology
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 21, 2020
Bonds. With interest rates so low, bonds now are yielding very little. There is virtually no return after inflation. It is a problem for retirees. The central bank is also seeking more inflation, which is a big problem for bonds. Dividend yielding stocks are okay to replace bonds only if you can handle volatility.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBonds. With interest rates so low, bonds now are yielding very little. There is virtually no return after inflation. It is a problem for retirees. The central bank is also seeking more inflation, which is a big problem for bonds. Dividend yielding stocks are okay to replace bonds only if you can handle volatility.
HOLD
HOLD
September 21, 2020
They are both high dividend covered call ETFs. They have underperformed compared to tech and growth stocks. If you want good dividend paying stocks, it is a fine investment for buy and hold. They only write the options on half the positions to enhance yield.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey are both high dividend covered call ETFs. They have underperformed compared to tech and growth stocks. If you want good dividend paying stocks, it is a fine investment for buy and hold. They only write the options on half the positions to enhance yield.
E.T.F.'s
HOLD
HOLD
September 21, 2020
They are both high dividend covered call ETFs. They have underperformed compared to tech and growth stocks. If you want good dividend paying stocks, it is a fine investment for buy and hold. They only write the options on half the positions to enhance yield.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey are both high dividend covered call ETFs. They have underperformed compared to tech and growth stocks. If you want good dividend paying stocks, it is a fine investment for buy and hold. They only write the options on half the positions to enhance yield.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 21, 2020
Volatility. The stock market is not reflecting what is going on in the real economy. This is largely due to central bank stimulus and speculation. The froth is coming off, but how low it goes is hard to say. He does not think there will be a major recession however. The correction may last a couple months, especially with election uncertainty.
Show full opinionHide full opinionVolatility. The stock market is not reflecting what is going on in the real economy. This is largely due to central bank stimulus and speculation. The froth is coming off, but how low it goes is hard to say. He does not think there will be a major recession however. The correction may last a couple months, especially with election uncertainty.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 21, 2020
Educational Segment. The death of RBG is the latest wrinkle in the US election. There is litigation against the Republicans making it difficult to vote. There were negotiations for a support plan, but the new appointment issue will be the new focus. This means there might be no stimulus bill before the election. There may be testing at around half of the market rally.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. The death of RBG is the latest wrinkle in the US election. There is litigation against the Republicans making it difficult to vote. There were negotiations for a support plan, but the new appointment issue will be the new focus. This means there might be no stimulus bill before the election. There may be testing at around half of the market rally.
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September 14, 2020
Federal Reserve. He doesn't think the Feds will do much at their meeting this week. However, there is talk about the huge liquidity that they have put into the economy. Yield curve control and long term low interest rates will be a focus. Europe and Japan have been doing similar quantitative easing and yet they do not have markets at all time highs. If we look closer, we see that the rise is mainly due to FANG stocks and not the general market.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFederal Reserve. He doesn't think the Feds will do much at their meeting this week. However, there is talk about the huge liquidity that they have put into the economy. Yield curve control and long term low interest rates will be a focus. Europe and Japan have been doing similar quantitative easing and yet they do not have markets at all time highs. If we look closer, we see that the rise is mainly due to FANG stocks and not the general market.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 14, 2020
These are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThese are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 14, 2020
These are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThese are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 14, 2020
These are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThese are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 14, 2020
These are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThese are some of the best ETFs for playing healthcare depending on what strategy you like. These cover global, covered call, yield focused, or actively managed ETFs in the market. The sector is a little overvalued right now so you might want to wait for a pullback. Longterm outlook is favourable.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 14, 2020
A silver miner play in the US. There is no way to play the silver sector with an ETF on the Canadian market.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA silver miner play in the US. There is no way to play the silver sector with an ETF on the Canadian market.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 14, 2020
It is a leveraged natural gas ETF. It could be a good trade if you are well-versed in it, but you should not hold it long term at all. It is a tool for short term speculation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is a leveraged natural gas ETF. It could be a good trade if you are well-versed in it, but you should not hold it long term at all. It is a tool for short term speculation.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 14, 2020
Overall, the sector will be fundamentally under pressure since the world is moving to cleaner energy. The sector is now tradeable but not investable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOverall, the sector will be fundamentally under pressure since the world is moving to cleaner energy. The sector is now tradeable but not investable.
integrated oils
BUY
BUY
September 14, 2020
This is a better way to play infrastructure. As governments look to put more people back to work, there will be higher demand for base metals.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThis is a better way to play infrastructure. As governments look to put more people back to work, there will be higher demand for base metals.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 14, 2020
Educational Segment. There has been a massive amount of small investors playing the option markets. There has been hedge buying that has propelled stocks up. Although there is a lot of exciting developments in tech, earnings growth has not kept up with stock price. There is rampant speculation from non-institutional investors on companies like Apple. We must wait for pullbacks. He would write a put for $80 a year from now for Apple to be paid while you wait.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. There has been a massive amount of small investors playing the option markets. There has been hedge buying that has propelled stocks up. Although there is a lot of exciting developments in tech, earnings growth has not kept up with stock price. There is rampant speculation from non-institutional investors on companies like Apple. We must wait for pullbacks. He would write a put for $80 a year from now for Apple to be paid while you wait.
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September 4, 2020
Sell off. The markets are very expensive, especially thinking about the market cap of Tesla being larger than the rest, or that FANGS are larger than most economies in the world. In the next while, we can expect investors to take some profits.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSell off. The markets are very expensive, especially thinking about the market cap of Tesla being larger than the rest, or that FANGS are larger than most economies in the world. In the next while, we can expect investors to take some profits.
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September 4, 2020
Employment. Employment numbers were on expectations in the US and Canada. Permanent job losses are going up however. Things will restructure in time but in the short term, there is deep change. It's a bifurcated markets with the real economy not matching up with the equity market.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEmployment. Employment numbers were on expectations in the US and Canada. Permanent job losses are going up however. Things will restructure in time but in the short term, there is deep change. It's a bifurcated markets with the real economy not matching up with the equity market.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 4, 2020
Because of volatility spiking up to tremendous levels, the option premium income went up everywhere. From now till the end of the year, you can expect volatility. You can expect 2-3% of extra yield from option strategy than the underlying stocks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBecause of volatility spiking up to tremendous levels, the option premium income went up everywhere. From now till the end of the year, you can expect volatility. You can expect 2-3% of extra yield from option strategy than the underlying stocks.
banks
BUY
BUY
September 4, 2020
A great all market ETF for any long-term investor with a large horizon.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA great all market ETF for any long-term investor with a large horizon.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 4, 2020
It provides direct euro exposure based in the US. Euro is best capped at 125 versus the US dollar.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt provides direct euro exposure based in the US. Euro is best capped at 125 versus the US dollar.
E.T.F.'s
WAIT
WAIT
September 4, 2020
He uses ZWC to be defensive when he's close to the high point to have more buffer for when the markets go sideways or down. From a low point, you want ZDV to get dividends without covered call. He would wait for a pullback before putting new money in.
E.T.F.'s
WAIT
WAIT
September 4, 2020
He uses ZWC to be defensive when he's close to the high point to have more buffer for when the markets go sideways or down. From a low point, you want ZDV to get dividends without covered call. He would wait for a pullback before putting new money in.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 4, 2020
The NASDAQ100 is more expensive than it has ever been. Long-term, technology will continue to do well. In the next couple months, he expects a pullback by 10-15%.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe NASDAQ100 is more expensive than it has ever been. Long-term, technology will continue to do well. In the next couple months, he expects a pullback by 10-15%.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 4, 2020
He is a value investor and he does not believe the criteria are met for either. To play momentum, it is another game. As these companies mature, they will trade at normal PEs.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe is a value investor and he does not believe the criteria are met for either. To play momentum, it is another game. As these companies mature, they will trade at normal PEs.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 4, 2020
He is a value investor and he does not believe the criteria are met for either. To play momentum, it is another game. As these companies mature, they will trade at normal PEs.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe is a value investor and he does not believe the criteria are met for either. To play momentum, it is another game. As these companies mature, they will trade at normal PEs.
Technology
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 4, 2020
The average analyst target is $46/share. Most signals are a buy. He does not know enough about its valuation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe average analyst target is $46/share. Most signals are a buy. He does not know enough about its valuation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 4, 2020
Educational Segment. When comparing the highest rated companies (AAA and AA) to the lowest, they have all recovered to an extent. However, the B ranked companies, junk rated, recovered because of the implied government support. These have a 10-15% bankruptcy rate. High quality companies have consistently outperformed.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. When comparing the highest rated companies (AAA and AA) to the lowest, they have all recovered to an extent. However, the B ranked companies, junk rated, recovered because of the implied government support. These have a 10-15% bankruptcy rate. High quality companies have consistently outperformed.
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August 28, 2020
Going back to 2012, the Fed has always been concerned with their inflation target. In the 60s, there was runaway inflation that they have worked to stabilize. Now that it is stable, they want inflation higher to inflate away the debt issue. The US government will owe 30 trillion next year. Because of low interest rates, it is manageable. However, if inflation goes up, they will need to buy more bonds.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGoing back to 2012, the Fed has always been concerned with their inflation target. In the 60s, there was runaway inflation that they have worked to stabilize. Now that it is stable, they want inflation higher to inflate away the debt issue. The US government will owe 30 trillion next year. Because of low interest rates, it is manageable. However, if inflation goes up, they will need to buy more bonds.
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August 28, 2020
US Elections The RNC did a good job to present Trump as a worthy candidate. We will probably see the polls close in in the next couple of weeks. The swing states are the only ones to watch closely. The markets will be paying more and more attention to this in the coming weeks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS Elections The RNC did a good job to present Trump as a worthy candidate. We will probably see the polls close in in the next couple of weeks. The swing states are the only ones to watch closely. The markets will be paying more and more attention to this in the coming weeks.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 28, 2020
He hasn't added to his position, but for yield players, it is at an attractive level. This is one of his top pick of the week.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe hasn't added to his position, but for yield players, it is at an attractive level. This is one of his top pick of the week.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
August 28, 2020
You get exposure to mid and large cap Canadian companies with some companies abroad. A good way to play the sector without trying to chose specific winners.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou get exposure to mid and large cap Canadian companies with some companies abroad. A good way to play the sector without trying to chose specific winners.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 28, 2020
His favourite way to play the sector. It is over bought at the moment though. There are no ways to play 5G directly through ETFs in Canada. You want to wait for a pullback.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHis favourite way to play the sector. It is over bought at the moment though. There are no ways to play 5G directly through ETFs in Canada. You want to wait for a pullback.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 28, 2020
Everything tech and cloud based that makes business easier remotely has done well. The stock has nearly doubled since March. It's probably over heating and there may be a correction shortly.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEverything tech and cloud based that makes business easier remotely has done well. The stock has nearly doubled since March. It's probably over heating and there may be a correction shortly.
computer software/processing
BUY
BUY
August 28, 2020
A recommended favourite for clean energy. If there is a democratic sweep, they will do very well.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA recommended favourite for clean energy. If there is a democratic sweep, they will do very well.
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August 28, 2020
Educational segment. There are a couple big index changes and stock splits coming up on Monday. On July 30th, Apple announced a 4-to-1 split. Since announcing the split, the stock has taken off and is now more expensive than before the launch of the first iPhone based on PE. With the split, their influence on the index will be 75% less. In response, the Dow has replaced some industry stocks with tech. Tesla might also be included in the S&P500 soon. There are many changes coming from the indices to watch for.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational segment. There are a couple big index changes and stock splits coming up on Monday. On July 30th, Apple announced a 4-to-1 split. Since announcing the split, the stock has taken off and is now more expensive than before the launch of the first iPhone based on PE. With the split, their influence on the index will be 75% less. In response, the Dow has replaced some industry stocks with tech. Tesla might also be included in the S&P500 soon. There are many changes coming from the indices to watch for.
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August 21, 2020
US Politics. We have started seeing the attention turn to the US elections with the DNC. It will be a referendum on Trump. He still thinks that Biden will win. With mail-in ballots, we may see lawsuits at any of the results that are close.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS Politics. We have started seeing the attention turn to the US elections with the DNC. It will be a referendum on Trump. He still thinks that Biden will win. With mail-in ballots, we may see lawsuits at any of the results that are close.
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August 21, 2020
Next week's speech will be on monetary policy. He is expected to talk about yield curve control. Markets are responding well to what the Feds are doing. It's not a healthy market, especially since Apple accounted for the majority of the lift of the composite.
Show full opinionHide full opinionNext week's speech will be on monetary policy. He is expected to talk about yield curve control. Markets are responding well to what the Feds are doing. It's not a healthy market, especially since Apple accounted for the majority of the lift of the composite.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 21, 2020
He hates the life space. They have a big problem with low interest rates. He would avoid lifecos until we see yield curve normalization. We have a massive amount of debts and interest rates just cannot go up.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe hates the life space. They have a big problem with low interest rates. He would avoid lifecos until we see yield curve normalization. We have a massive amount of debts and interest rates just cannot go up.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 21, 2020
The dividend stocks as a group has underperformed. There's nothing wrong with the fund. He would prefer technology stocks although they don't pay dividends.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe dividend stocks as a group has underperformed. There's nothing wrong with the fund. He would prefer technology stocks although they don't pay dividends.
other services
BUY
BUY
August 21, 2020
He likes the US dollar exposure. Overall, he is negative on the market in general. Balancing that with the government action, we probably won't get a sharp sell-off. He is positive on the defensive nature and the higher yield.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe likes the US dollar exposure. Overall, he is negative on the market in general. Balancing that with the government action, we probably won't get a sharp sell-off. He is positive on the defensive nature and the higher yield.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
August 21, 2020
This gives you the exposure but hedges the currency risk out. However, at the moment you might want the US Dollar exposure.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThis gives you the exposure but hedges the currency risk out. However, at the moment you might want the US Dollar exposure.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
August 21, 2020
Half exposure on average with long positions with covered calls, and half with puts. Any given month that goes down, it could go longer. The range follows the markets.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHalf exposure on average with long positions with covered calls, and half with puts. Any given month that goes down, it could go longer. The range follows the markets.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 21, 2020
There is significant geopolitical risks where they operate. There was a mutiny in Mali that has affected gold miners.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere is significant geopolitical risks where they operate. There was a mutiny in Mali that has affected gold miners.
Golds
BUY
BUY
August 21, 2020
In general, the precious metals sector is positive. They are a processor so they do not have the mining risk. Basically, they get a royalty of what they are processing. It is levered to the price of gold. We are looking at 50%+ upside for gold stocks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIn general, the precious metals sector is positive. They are a processor so they do not have the mining risk. Basically, they get a royalty of what they are processing. It is levered to the price of gold. We are looking at 50%+ upside for gold stocks.
metal mines
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August 21, 2020
Currency risk. Terms of trade and money flowing in and out of Canada are important considerations. 5%-10% of your return is the currency swing when investing outside of Canada. Over the last 20 years, the terms of trade for US-Canada are still great, but Canada-China is a growing part. The Canadian dollar can get a lot weaker. He expects it to go down to .70c. Therefor you want to be unhedged for US exposure.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCurrency risk. Terms of trade and money flowing in and out of Canada are important considerations. 5%-10% of your return is the currency swing when investing outside of Canada. Over the last 20 years, the terms of trade for US-Canada are still great, but Canada-China is a growing part. The Canadian dollar can get a lot weaker. He expects it to go down to .70c. Therefor you want to be unhedged for US exposure.
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August 14, 2020
Gold. Berkshire Hathaway has taken a position in Barrack gold. They have also lowered allocation in financials. It probably means that Buffet is very worried about the economy. There were some short term traders that contributed to the volatility. He expects increased volatility at this later stage.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold. Berkshire Hathaway has taken a position in Barrack gold. They have also lowered allocation in financials. It probably means that Buffet is very worried about the economy. There were some short term traders that contributed to the volatility. He expects increased volatility at this later stage.
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August 14, 2020
US Elections. The VP pick is a safe and centrist pick. They know that they need to be more in the centre to win the broader votes. It's shaping up to be very interesting. He thinks it will be a Biden win.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS Elections. The VP pick is a safe and centrist pick. They know that they need to be more in the centre to win the broader votes. It's shaping up to be very interesting. He thinks it will be a Biden win.
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August 14, 2020
S&P 500. The index is flirting with all-time highs, but there is still narrowness to the market. The big 10 names are the doing the vast majority of lifting the index up.
Show full opinionHide full opinionS&P 500. The index is flirting with all-time highs, but there is still narrowness to the market. The big 10 names are the doing the vast majority of lifting the index up.
No Berman's Call this week due to holiday.