Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
Reveal Expert Rating
3846 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
Big banks are starting to report this week. Earnings will probably be positive. Geopolitical risk seems to be ramping up in Iran, Ukraine and Taiwan. In regards to the Fed's, the growth is being induced by the fiscal support. The question is over the next few years, will it be enough to kick start the economy?
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Big banks are starting to report this week. Earnings will probably be positive. Geopolitical risk seems to be ramping up in Iran, Ukraine and Taiwan. In regards to the Fed's, the growth is being induced by the fiscal support. The question is over the next few years, will it be enough to kick start the economy?
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
Gold. Gold has a flight to safety type movement. However, we are seeing money flowing into digital assets. Gold, traditionally chosen for safety, is being replaced by bitcoin and other cryptos.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold. Gold has a flight to safety type movement. However, we are seeing money flowing into digital assets. Gold, traditionally chosen for safety, is being replaced by bitcoin and other cryptos.
BUY
BUY
April 12, 2021
You're looking at 2.5% to 3% yield. Some of the best value is in small cap dividend payers.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou're looking at 2.5% to 3% yield. Some of the best value is in small cap dividend payers.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
ZEB is equal weight where as ZWB is equal weight banks with a covered call overlay. When you think the markets will go sideways or down, covered calls will perform better. However, the covered call gives away some of the upside potential so if you are bullish on growth, forego the covered call.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
ZEB is equal weight where as ZWB is equal weight banks with a covered call overlay. When you think the markets will go sideways or down, covered calls will perform better. However, the covered call gives away some of the upside potential so if you are bullish on growth, forego the covered call.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
April 12, 2021
Manages this fund. The target is to generate a yield in excess of 4%. There is also an aspect of capital preservation. Delivers global yield and protection. This strategy will deliver well over the long run. Very liquid.
Show full opinionHide full opinionManages this fund. The target is to generate a yield in excess of 4%. There is also an aspect of capital preservation. Delivers global yield and protection. This strategy will deliver well over the long run. Very liquid.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
They are both identical. ZWP is not currency hedged. ZWE will hedge those currencies. Right now, he would want more exposure to a strengthening Euro than the CAD.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
They are both identical. ZWP is not currency hedged. ZWE will hedge those currencies. Right now, he would want more exposure to a strengthening Euro than the CAD.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
ZZZD gives you exposure to global dividend payers, whereas ZPAY is only US markets. ZZZD has ZPAY in it for the US exposure. ZPAY gives a yield around 6% whereas ZZZD is designed to give 4%.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
ZZZD gives you exposure to global dividend payers, whereas ZPAY is only US markets. ZZZD has ZPAY in it for the US exposure. ZPAY gives a yield around 6% whereas ZZZD is designed to give 4%.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
ZMT is a way to play base metals that will be needed to build everything from bridges to EVs. COPX is a pure play copper play, but it trades in New York.
Show full opinionHide full opinionZMT is a way to play base metals that will be needed to build everything from bridges to EVs. COPX is a pure play copper play, but it trades in New York.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
ZMT is a way to play base metals that will be needed to build everything from bridges to EVs. COPX is a pure play copper play, but it trades in New York.
Show full opinionHide full opinionZMT is a way to play base metals that will be needed to build everything from bridges to EVs. COPX is a pure play copper play, but it trades in New York.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
April 12, 2021
The world is moving away from oil, but in the short term, there could be increased demand to supply. If oil is $60-$80, oil stocks are pretty cheap. Likes the sector to trade, but not for the long term. The biggest investors in green energy are these traditional energy companies.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe world is moving away from oil, but in the short term, there could be increased demand to supply. If oil is $60-$80, oil stocks are pretty cheap. Likes the sector to trade, but not for the long term. The biggest investors in green energy are these traditional energy companies.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
April 12, 2021
The world is moving away from oil, but in the short term, there could be increased demand to supply. If oil is $60-$80, oil stocks are pretty cheap. Likes the sector to trade, but not for the long term. The biggest investors in green energy are these traditional energy companies.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe world is moving away from oil, but in the short term, there could be increased demand to supply. If oil is $60-$80, oil stocks are pretty cheap. Likes the sector to trade, but not for the long term. The biggest investors in green energy are these traditional energy companies.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 12, 2021
Educational Segment. There are signs for a melt-up bubble. The BoA has released a report saying that there are more funds flowing into the equity markets than in the last 12 years. It is phenomenal. Looking at two indicators today, the first is bull-bear ratio. The S&P 500 sentiment is becoming extreme. At these times, we see corrections of 5%-10%. We are not seeing the same degree of speculation, however. Looking at the Opportunity vs Caution indicator, it is reaching a high caution level. There is froth. Once earnings get priced in, there will be a sell in May. Need to be more defensive in portfolios in the next months. We are seeing traditional late cycle behaviour but the bubble can get bigger and bigger since the Feds will not be cooling the markets.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. There are signs for a melt-up bubble. The BoA has released a report saying that there are more funds flowing into the equity markets than in the last 12 years. It is phenomenal. Looking at two indicators today, the first is bull-bear ratio. The S&P 500 sentiment is becoming extreme. At these times, we see corrections of 5%-10%. We are not seeing the same degree of speculation, however. Looking at the Opportunity vs Caution indicator, it is reaching a high caution level. There is froth. Once earnings get priced in, there will be a sell in May. Need to be more defensive in portfolios in the next months. We are seeing traditional late cycle behaviour but the bubble can get bigger and bigger since the Feds will not be cooling the markets.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Jobs are coming back. Unemployment numbers in Canada are coming this week. There are a lot of positives that the market is celebrating. However, who is going to pay for all this stimulus? Right now, markets are okay and it should continue for the next 4-6 weeks. Valuations are problematic but some times the market doesn't care. Vaccine efficacy is positive.
Show full opinionHide full opinionJobs are coming back. Unemployment numbers in Canada are coming this week. There are a lot of positives that the market is celebrating. However, who is going to pay for all this stimulus? Right now, markets are okay and it should continue for the next 4-6 weeks. Valuations are problematic but some times the market doesn't care. Vaccine efficacy is positive.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Tax hikes and corporate tax hikes are coming. Funding gap is more than $2 trillion. This will suck a lot of money out of the capital markets. Liquidity is also a factor.
Show full opinionHide full opinionTax hikes and corporate tax hikes are coming. Funding gap is more than $2 trillion. This will suck a lot of money out of the capital markets. Liquidity is also a factor.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Crypto. Wouldn't recommend for the average investor. However, if you are going to invest, invest in the TFSA so you don't have to pay taxes on it. Good for speculative plays.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCrypto. Wouldn't recommend for the average investor. However, if you are going to invest, invest in the TFSA so you don't have to pay taxes on it. Good for speculative plays.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Utilities are good for yield seekers. Could look at ZWU with broader based with utilities + other dividend players as well as some US exposure. Overall, good for income.
Utilities are good for yield seekers. Could look at ZWU with broader based with utilities + other dividend players as well as some US exposure. Overall, good for income.
E.T.F.'s
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
April 5, 2021
A steel ETF that covers stocks like Rio Tinto, Cleveland Cliff, etc.. The best way to play the global steel sector. Look at the 10 year chart to get perspective. We have seen a good rally already. A classic cyclical play. We are getting to the top end of the range. Not early.
A steel ETF that covers stocks like Rio Tinto, Cleveland Cliff, etc.. The best way to play the global steel sector. Look at the 10 year chart to get perspective. We have seen a good rally already. A classic cyclical play. We are getting to the top end of the range. Not early.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
April 5, 2021
Utilities are a natural place to go to diversify with lower risk. Rate sensitive. Has BCE, Telus, telcos as well as pipelines on top of utilities. Will consistently return 6% to investor with limited volatility.
E.T.F.'s
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
April 5, 2021
You have to like financial services industry. There is a lot they do under their umbrella. A growth area. It is sensitive to capital markets. Must be cautious. Closer to a high than its low. Not early.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou have to like financial services industry. There is a lot they do under their umbrella. A growth area. It is sensitive to capital markets. Must be cautious. Closer to a high than its low. Not early.
mngmnt/diversified
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Bond ETF. Bond funds have interest rate sensitivity risk, duration risk. It is different from doing a laddered strategy yourself. The world is so sensitive to interest rates so bonds will be a bad investment for a while. A traditional 60-40 balanced portfolios will see stress. It will be a problem for the next couple decades. Central banks will probably continue to monetize the debt.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBond ETF. Bond funds have interest rate sensitivity risk, duration risk. It is different from doing a laddered strategy yourself. The world is so sensitive to interest rates so bonds will be a bad investment for a while. A traditional 60-40 balanced portfolios will see stress. It will be a problem for the next couple decades. Central banks will probably continue to monetize the debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2021
Educational Segment. Earnings season is starting next week. Markets will be focusing on the earnings. S&P is now up to $174/share. With the S&P over $4000, the multiple we pay for the earnings is getting pretty high. The multiple of the market should be 16.5x, which is fair value. If we use a multiple of 20x, you get a $200/share number. Before covid, for 2021, we were expecting $200. Now 2022 expectations are at $200. The earnings are discounted into the future. The markets are expensive here. May will be interesting and we could see selling into strength.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Earnings season is starting next week. Markets will be focusing on the earnings. S&P is now up to $174/share. With the S&P over $4000, the multiple we pay for the earnings is getting pretty high. The multiple of the market should be 16.5x, which is fair value. If we use a multiple of 20x, you get a $200/share number. Before covid, for 2021, we were expecting $200. Now 2022 expectations are at $200. The earnings are discounted into the future. The markets are expensive here. May will be interesting and we could see selling into strength.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Market oulook. Expects strong economic rebound. The stimulus will generate economic growth. The numbers will get better for a couple months with earnings upgrades. This should buoy the markets. The Feds have promised support for years to come.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket oulook. Expects strong economic rebound. The stimulus will generate economic growth. The numbers will get better for a couple months with earnings upgrades. This should buoy the markets. The Feds have promised support for years to come.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Bond yields. In the short run, the bond seasonal are good. We have to pay for the stimulus, and the bond supply will dwarf the amount by the Feds through QE. Next quarter is good, the quarter after could be a challenge for fixed income investments. The natural rate of economic growth is anemic. We will not be able to create a type of economic growth without stimulus.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBond yields. In the short run, the bond seasonal are good. We have to pay for the stimulus, and the bond supply will dwarf the amount by the Feds through QE. Next quarter is good, the quarter after could be a challenge for fixed income investments. The natural rate of economic growth is anemic. We will not be able to create a type of economic growth without stimulus.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Monetizing debt. It means quantitative easing, where the interest payments just goes back to the government. It is the same as printing currency.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMonetizing debt. It means quantitative easing, where the interest payments just goes back to the government. It is the same as printing currency.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Educational Segment. Focusing on the ETF KWEB, Chinese tech stocks. The volatility in Chinese tech stocks has occurred since the ANT group IPO was cancelled following the Jack Ma comments. There has since been some sanctions and fines levied against big name tech companies in China. We are seeing a divergence in BABA stocks since then with it losing a third of its value. Amazon has been sideways. The anti-trust saga is much broader. Would not touch KWEB until it is 10-15% lower. Long term, you do have to like these companies but there will be more shakeout.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Focusing on the ETF KWEB, Chinese tech stocks. The volatility in Chinese tech stocks has occurred since the ANT group IPO was cancelled following the Jack Ma comments. There has since been some sanctions and fines levied against big name tech companies in China. We are seeing a divergence in BABA stocks since then with it losing a third of its value. Amazon has been sideways. The anti-trust saga is much broader. Would not touch KWEB until it is 10-15% lower. Long term, you do have to like these companies but there will be more shakeout.
BUY
BUY
March 29, 2021
For yield seekers, this is a good way to get exposure to some of the best dividend payers in Europe. There is no reason there will be reason to change. During covid, dividend stocks did get crushed so it is not a proxy for bonds. Nothing wrong with using it to get exposure to yield.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFor yield seekers, this is a good way to get exposure to some of the best dividend payers in Europe. There is no reason there will be reason to change. During covid, dividend stocks did get crushed so it is not a proxy for bonds. Nothing wrong with using it to get exposure to yield.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 29, 2021
Would shy away from the NASDAQ in the short term. Long term, you gotta love tech but we will see some normalization. What worked last year was large cap tech and the valuations have gotten stretched. Could see little growth and consolidation and it will probably go sideways.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWould shy away from the NASDAQ in the short term. Long term, you gotta love tech but we will see some normalization. What worked last year was large cap tech and the valuations have gotten stretched. Could see little growth and consolidation and it will probably go sideways.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
There is a good dividend on shaw. It could be a year before the deal closes. It is hard to know all the details and there is stock list. The market is pretty good at pricing in where value is. It is not a no-brainer to buy it here in terms of the Rogers deal.
Cable
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
March 29, 2021
It is all about inflation expectation and break even analysis. Inflation expectations have spiked considerably. We may not realize these levels for the next few years. Would not chase here. Hasn't added to it. Better to sell into strength since there are more deflationary forces. Have to watch wages. If they increase significantly, there will be real inflation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is all about inflation expectation and break even analysis. Inflation expectations have spiked considerably. We may not realize these levels for the next few years. Would not chase here. Hasn't added to it. Better to sell into strength since there are more deflationary forces. Have to watch wages. If they increase significantly, there will be real inflation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Gold. US dollars has been strong and real returns are a big part of it. Feds need negative real yields for years. Gold will have its day again but the last 6 months have not been great. Was bullish around $1,200 so still likes it.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold. US dollars has been strong and real returns are a big part of it. Feds need negative real yields for years. Gold will have its day again but the last 6 months have not been great. Was bullish around $1,200 so still likes it.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 29, 2021
Ultimately, when yields rise, income goes up. How much will yields go up? The global economy cannot handle higher interest rates. Insurance companies are doing better, but he does not expect it to last beyond the next 6 months.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUltimately, when yields rise, income goes up. How much will yields go up? The global economy cannot handle higher interest rates. Insurance companies are doing better, but he does not expect it to last beyond the next 6 months.
insurance
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2021
Mexico. An emerging market you should trade rather than hold. You get exposure to telecom, beverage, financials and even Walmart Mexico. Fits into the general theme of emerging markets. Must believe that the Mexican pesos will improve, probably due to oil strength.
Mexico. An emerging market you should trade rather than hold. You get exposure to telecom, beverage, financials and even Walmart Mexico. Fits into the general theme of emerging markets. Must believe that the Mexican pesos will improve, probably due to oil strength.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
March 29, 2021
An active strategy where they buy US stocks that are attractive and do a covered call overlay. When they want to own the stock but the price is high, they write puts to take advantage of this side. Designed to target yield of around 6% with modest growth. Good for yield seekers.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAn active strategy where they buy US stocks that are attractive and do a covered call overlay. When they want to own the stock but the price is high, they write puts to take advantage of this side. Designed to target yield of around 6% with modest growth. Good for yield seekers.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
Market outlook. The Fed's message was to anchor short term rates, and they want some inflation. The yield curve is steepening, which is positive for banks. As yields fall, it helps tech so this market rotation is important to watch. They will probably institute some yield curve control. The treasury is issuing $200B in debt. Flow of funds will impact bonds and Feds as well as stocks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket outlook. The Fed's message was to anchor short term rates, and they want some inflation. The yield curve is steepening, which is positive for banks. As yields fall, it helps tech so this market rotation is important to watch. They will probably institute some yield curve control. The treasury is issuing $200B in debt. Flow of funds will impact bonds and Feds as well as stocks.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
Railway stocks. CP wants to buy Kansas City Southern. Railways are very economically sensitive. They are currently at the high end of ranges. Based on where we are today, compared to pre-covid, where are we? How good is the economy relative to before covid? That is the question.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRailway stocks. CP wants to buy Kansas City Southern. Railways are very economically sensitive. They are currently at the high end of ranges. Based on where we are today, compared to pre-covid, where are we? How good is the economy relative to before covid? That is the question.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 22, 2021
New technology and innovation is a good place to be for a longer term growth potential. Thematic ETFs in growth areas makes good sense. However, wait for a pullback of around 20%.
Show full opinionHide full opinionNew technology and innovation is a good place to be for a longer term growth potential. Thematic ETFs in growth areas makes good sense. However, wait for a pullback of around 20%.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 22, 2021
New technology and innovation is a good place to be for a longer term growth potential. Thematic ETFs in growth areas makes good sense. However, wait for a pullback of around 20%.
Show full opinionHide full opinionNew technology and innovation is a good place to be for a longer term growth potential. Thematic ETFs in growth areas makes good sense. However, wait for a pullback of around 20%.
Technology
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
March 22, 2021
Duration is an asset class. Have been adding to TLT as yields are rising. In the back half of the year, we will see Feds step up purchases of longer term bonds. Don't look for it to get back to ATH. It will probably peak around $150-155. Trade duration as an asset class. It depends how willing the Feds are to step up purchases. Be active and trade. Don't invest.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDuration is an asset class. Have been adding to TLT as yields are rising. In the back half of the year, we will see Feds step up purchases of longer term bonds. Don't look for it to get back to ATH. It will probably peak around $150-155. Trade duration as an asset class. It depends how willing the Feds are to step up purchases. Be active and trade. Don't invest.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
Canadian Dollar. We are running massive deficits. We have a current account, and capital account deficit. In this environment, the CAD should be weaker at around $0.75. We should head back into this territory later in the year. It seems that in the recovery trade with the supply-demand imbalance, it will show strength for a bit.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCanadian Dollar. We are running massive deficits. We have a current account, and capital account deficit. In this environment, the CAD should be weaker at around $0.75. We should head back into this territory later in the year. It seems that in the recovery trade with the supply-demand imbalance, it will show strength for a bit.
BUY
BUY
March 22, 2021
An equal weight holding of RSP. It avoids the FX cost of moving back and forth money with USD. It has outperformed the S&P500 this year.
An equal weight holding of RSP. It avoids the FX cost of moving back and forth money with USD. It has outperformed the S&P500 this year.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
The most diversified holding you can get. It holds all the equities of the world. The S&P500 is also a large percentage of the world equities, and Nasdaq follows this. VT gives you the maximum amount of diversification.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe most diversified holding you can get. It holds all the equities of the world. The S&P500 is also a large percentage of the world equities, and Nasdaq follows this. VT gives you the maximum amount of diversification.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
EWU is large cap stocks that would track large UK equities, like banks. EWS is for small caps. HEWU is to play it without the British Pound exposure.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
EWU is large cap stocks that would track large UK equities, like banks. EWS is for small caps. HEWU is to play it without the British Pound exposure.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
EWU is large cap stocks that would track large UK equities, like banks. EWS is for small caps. HEWU is to play it without the British Pound exposure.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
We are seeing lots of money going into reopening themes. Not early here. Relative to pre-covid, what is the environment? Compared to pre-covid on the 2-year chart, it looks like there is opportunity. However, it was already dipping pre-covid.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWe are seeing lots of money going into reopening themes. Not early here. Relative to pre-covid, what is the environment? Compared to pre-covid on the 2-year chart, it looks like there is opportunity. However, it was already dipping pre-covid.
investment companies/funds
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 22, 2021
Educational Segment. Some times seasonality works, and other times it doesn't work, but it provides a baseline. You always need a catalyst which is stimulus this year. We are seeing upgrades to economic growth from it. Q1 earnings will have upward guidance. Markets will like it. You don't have to worry about negative seasonality until the third quarter. On average, the next few months are good and markets should go higher. Average revenue is $175 for the S&P right now, and this should go up. We are seeing that the average stock is up 10% this year, whereas the S&P500 is only up 5%, and Nasdaq at 2%. If earnings are good, we have to pay for the stimulus, which will be a pressure on interest rates. We will start seeing this in July onwards. Feds are buying about a trillion dollars of debt. Large cap tech will see pressure because they are seen as over leveraged to low interest rates. Okay for the next few weeks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Some times seasonality works, and other times it doesn't work, but it provides a baseline. You always need a catalyst which is stimulus this year. We are seeing upgrades to economic growth from it. Q1 earnings will have upward guidance. Markets will like it. You don't have to worry about negative seasonality until the third quarter. On average, the next few months are good and markets should go higher. Average revenue is $175 for the S&P right now, and this should go up. We are seeing that the average stock is up 10% this year, whereas the S&P500 is only up 5%, and Nasdaq at 2%. If earnings are good, we have to pay for the stimulus, which will be a pressure on interest rates. We will start seeing this in July onwards. Feds are buying about a trillion dollars of debt. Large cap tech will see pressure because they are seen as over leveraged to low interest rates. Okay for the next few weeks.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2021
Fed meeting. It's not a surprise that the amount of stimulus is behind the support for the markets. The fiscal policy must be financed since there is only so much the Feds can do. Will the Feds provide the support? A year ago, the supplementary leverage ratio was suspended last year so banks could buy treasuries without capital cost hit. It will probably be extended. If they do not extend this, there is a risk to the bond market that will extend to the equity market.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFed meeting. It's not a surprise that the amount of stimulus is behind the support for the markets. The fiscal policy must be financed since there is only so much the Feds can do. Will the Feds provide the support? A year ago, the supplementary leverage ratio was suspended last year so banks could buy treasuries without capital cost hit. It will probably be extended. If they do not extend this, there is a risk to the bond market that will extend to the equity market.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2021
Rising yield. Central banks around the world want more inflation. Bond vigilantes are coming back. The amount of debt in the world at all levels is colossal. The cost of servicing the debt is a big stress on the system. They cannot let interest rates rise before it becomes a massive headwind for growth.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRising yield. Central banks around the world want more inflation. Bond vigilantes are coming back. The amount of debt in the world at all levels is colossal. The cost of servicing the debt is a big stress on the system. They cannot let interest rates rise before it becomes a massive headwind for growth.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2021
Canadian Housing Market. The bubble talk in the housing market is related to the low rates and how stretched people are. If interest rates go up by 100-150 basis points and mortgage rates go up, there will be less money for discretionary spending. It will matter for those who are really stretched.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCanadian Housing Market. The bubble talk in the housing market is related to the low rates and how stretched people are. If interest rates go up by 100-150 basis points and mortgage rates go up, there will be less money for discretionary spending. It will matter for those who are really stretched.
HOLD
HOLD
March 15, 2021
Gold stocks have been incredibly cheap for a few years. Still thinks there are a couple more years in the gold sector. Bitcoin has taken some of the money that would have gone into gold. Rising yield is also a headwind. The reason you want to own gold has not changed. Rising inflation pressure relative to nominal yield is a strong story for gold. Volatility is to be expected but there is more upside to come.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold stocks have been incredibly cheap for a few years. Still thinks there are a couple more years in the gold sector. Bitcoin has taken some of the money that would have gone into gold. Rising yield is also a headwind. The reason you want to own gold has not changed. Rising inflation pressure relative to nominal yield is a strong story for gold. Volatility is to be expected but there is more upside to come.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
March 15, 2021
You have credit risk for mortgages. Banks are well provisioned for credit losses, though these might be loosened shortly. The yield curve is steepening so in the short run, banks are more profitable. It's hard to say how much is priced in. Not early but if the yield curve remains steep, banks will do well over the next few years.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou have credit risk for mortgages. Banks are well provisioned for credit losses, though these might be loosened shortly. The yield curve is steepening so in the short run, banks are more profitable. It's hard to say how much is priced in. Not early but if the yield curve remains steep, banks will do well over the next few years.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
March 15, 2021
You have credit risk for mortgages. Banks are well provisioned for credit losses, though these might be loosened shortly. The yield curve is steepening so in the short run, banks are more profitable. It's hard to say how much is priced in. Not early but if the yield curve remains steep, banks will do well over the next few years.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou have credit risk for mortgages. Banks are well provisioned for credit losses, though these might be loosened shortly. The yield curve is steepening so in the short run, banks are more profitable. It's hard to say how much is priced in. Not early but if the yield curve remains steep, banks will do well over the next few years.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 15, 2021
The biggest holding in this ETF is Plug Power, which is Kathy Wood of Ark Investment's preference. This company will not make a profit for a couple years. There is a lot of speculation. There will be massive amounts of money for the green sector. Not early and you will see volatility. The pullback is a good time to step in. When traditional energy do well, the green energy names should do better too since traditional energy are big investors.
The biggest holding in this ETF is Plug Power, which is Kathy Wood of Ark Investment's preference. This company will not make a profit for a couple years. There is a lot of speculation. There will be massive amounts of money for the green sector. Not early and you will see volatility. The pullback is a good time to step in. When traditional energy do well, the green energy names should do better too since traditional energy are big investors.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2021
Loves Kathy Wood's research. There is a lot of speculation and fast money playing these names. It is speculative and will have lots of volatility. Momentum trading is doable but it is not yet a buy and forget play.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLoves Kathy Wood's research. There is a lot of speculation and fast money playing these names. It is speculative and will have lots of volatility. Momentum trading is doable but it is not yet a buy and forget play.
Technology
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2021
What to put in a TFSA. You want to make speculative plays since if you hit a home run you don't have to pay taxes on it. Things like long term innovation, tech, medical marijuana. However, the valuations are quite high in these sectors right now. He would look at gold, silver, base metals that have a couple years of run room left.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWhat to put in a TFSA. You want to make speculative plays since if you hit a home run you don't have to pay taxes on it. Things like long term innovation, tech, medical marijuana. However, the valuations are quite high in these sectors right now. He would look at gold, silver, base metals that have a couple years of run room left.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2021
Oil. Long term, based on the fundamentals, $50-$60 oil is on the higher end for him. Investment demands points to oil going higher in the shorter term. It seems that the market is set up for oil to shoot up. However, high price on oil is bad for growth. There is more upside. XEG for market cap, ZEO for equal weight in Canada, or XLG for the US. Look at the producers that are under valued relative to price.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOil. Long term, based on the fundamentals, $50-$60 oil is on the higher end for him. Investment demands points to oil going higher in the shorter term. It seems that the market is set up for oil to shoot up. However, high price on oil is bad for growth. There is more upside. XEG for market cap, ZEO for equal weight in Canada, or XLG for the US. Look at the producers that are under valued relative to price.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2021
Educational Segment. Birth rates have gone down due to covid. Aging demographic and all the debt in the world will also be a headwind for growth. The demographics continues to suggests that the world will continue to have growth problems. There will be a lot of challenges in aging countries like Italy, especially with their poor fiscal situation. Today, 2/3 of the world's population lives in Asia. In the next century, Africa will see the most growth. The growth area will be emerging markets. There is an ETF for Nigeria, NGE, which is quite interesting.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Birth rates have gone down due to covid. Aging demographic and all the debt in the world will also be a headwind for growth. The demographics continues to suggests that the world will continue to have growth problems. There will be a lot of challenges in aging countries like Italy, especially with their poor fiscal situation. Today, 2/3 of the world's population lives in Asia. In the next century, Africa will see the most growth. The growth area will be emerging markets. There is an ETF for Nigeria, NGE, which is quite interesting.
PixFuture exclusive partner.
© Stockchase Inc.