Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3219 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 6.5%.) He looks at an ETF’s performance relative to other ETF's in the group. Still screening very well. Exposed to emerging markets, so in a market correction, this will correct more so.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 4.1%.) More conservative. Gives exposure to international dividend paying products.
Top Short It is at the very top end where at similar points there have been major corrections. Risk/reward is starting to turn negative. A one-month and three-month average of the daily breadth shows a lot of good news has been priced in already.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 7.2%.) This is the transport sector. One thing that is helping is the airlines, which have taken off again.
Chart shows good uptrend. South Korea has a lot of good things happening to it. North Korea looks like they are backing down from their nuclear stance.
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Your ReactionSignal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
Market. Brexit. It looks like a conservative majority but that does not solve Brexit. There is still a lot of runway, but this is a hurtle for the market and a conservative win would benefit the markets. There will be a Brexit, well negotiated. The British pound has responded. He is still contemplating selling his UK small cap stocks prior to the election or slightly after. A week Sunday if the December 15th tariff day. He would be surprised if Trump did not kick it down the road at this point, but the tariffs could be applied.
Market. Brexit. It looks like a conservative majority but that does not solve Brexit. There is still a lot of runway, but this is a hurtle for the market and a conservative win would benefit the markets. There will be a Brexit, well negotiated. The British pound has responded. He is still contemplating selling his UK small cap stocks prior to the election or slightly after. A week Sunday if the December 15th tariff day. He would be surprised if Trump did not kick it down the road at this point, but the tariffs could be applied.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 9, 2019
Park money for 3 to 4 months. This is always a challenge. The general idea is that one is not getting enough safe return. If your horizon is 3-4 months, then you can't get into equities. There are high income savings ETFs that have emerged. CSAV, PSA and HISA. They focus on high income savings. You get over 2% interest today. ZST gives you a money market kind of holding.
Park money for 3 to 4 months. This is always a challenge. The general idea is that one is not getting enough safe return. If your horizon is 3-4 months, then you can't get into equities. There are high income savings ETFs that have emerged. CSAV, PSA and HISA. They focus on high income savings. You get over 2% interest today. ZST gives you a money market kind of holding.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
Put Spread. You buy a put and write a put. You reduce the cost of the downside protection. He would look at doing this. A long put offsets a short put.
Put Spread. You buy a put and write a put. You reduce the cost of the downside protection. He would look at doing this. A long put offsets a short put.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
US security ETFs clearing in New York or in Toronto yet securities may not be located in the city it trades in. You can buy them in both places and it may impact tax consequences.
US security ETFs clearing in New York or in Toronto yet securities may not be located in the city it trades in. You can buy them in both places and it may impact tax consequences.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 9, 2019
In the last 10 years US markets have lead the world recovery. We are at that point where the US is so expensive relative to other places in the world that we will start to see conversion to the US doing less well and international markets doing a bit better.
In the last 10 years US markets have lead the world recovery. We are at that point where the US is so expensive relative to other places in the world that we will start to see conversion to the US doing less well and international markets doing a bit better.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 9, 2019
He has a problem recommending ETFs with leverage in them to an average investor.
He has a problem recommending ETFs with leverage in them to an average investor.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
December 9, 2019
His favourite way to play international markets is via a covered call, high divined stock strategy.
His favourite way to play international markets is via a covered call, high divined stock strategy.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
Educational Segment. Looking back on the last year. He thought we would get a bear market over this year but it was a brief but deep pull back last December. He said then and still thinks we will not see it in terms of job losses until well into 2020. He said then, and still believes, that the trend of a declining Canadian dollar will continue into 2020 somewhere below $0.70. The Canadian banks may not correct until well into next year. He thinks interest rates will be lower in a year than they are today.
Educational Segment. Looking back on the last year. He thought we would get a bear market over this year but it was a brief but deep pull back last December. He said then and still thinks we will not see it in terms of job losses until well into 2020. He said then, and still believes, that the trend of a declining Canadian dollar will continue into 2020 somewhere below $0.70. The Canadian banks may not correct until well into next year. He thinks interest rates will be lower in a year than they are today.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 2, 2019
Market. Trump had exempted Brazil last time when he went after steel tariffs. Now they are on. Energy is a big part of what moves the Brazilian currency around. Trump's use of tariffs is not going away. The markets are rationally exuberant about trade. Globally the Purchasing Managers Index has ticked up, except for the US, which is part of the market weakness today.
Market. Trump had exempted Brazil last time when he went after steel tariffs. Now they are on. Energy is a big part of what moves the Brazilian currency around. Trump's use of tariffs is not going away. The markets are rationally exuberant about trade. Globally the Purchasing Managers Index has ticked up, except for the US, which is part of the market weakness today.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 2, 2019
How do you play the negative side? He does not just make one bet. Gold equities and silver will likely go up and stocks in Canada while other equities will probably go down. It is all about diversification.
How do you play the negative side? He does not just make one bet. Gold equities and silver will likely go up and stocks in Canada while other equities will probably go down. It is all about diversification.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
December 2, 2019
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$13.850
Unknown
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
December 2, 2019
We aren't to going to have enough homes for retirees. Living in your home is going to be a big thing and reverse mortgages are going to be a big thing. He does not know if equitable is going to be the place to play this. He would partial sell these REITs at the moment.
We aren't to going to have enough homes for retirees. Living in your home is going to be a big thing and reverse mortgages are going to be a big thing. He does not know if equitable is going to be the place to play this. He would partial sell these REITs at the moment.
Financial Services
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$110.880
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 2, 2019
Does not pay dividends. It is not a great holding, compared to the S&P or the DOW or a basket of high dividend payers. It will go down as much in a recession as other equities.
Does not pay dividends. It is not a great holding, compared to the S&P or the DOW or a basket of high dividend payers. It will go down as much in a recession as other equities.
insurance
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$331500.000
Unknown
BUY
BUY
December 2, 2019
Gold. Gold is a flight to safety. GLD-N, GLDI-N, GLDX, GDXJ are his favorites. ZGD vs. XGD are also options.
Gold. Gold is a flight to safety. GLD-N, GLDI-N, GLDX, GDXJ are his favorites. ZGD vs. XGD are also options.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 2, 2019
Being Green. How do I invest in Biodegradable cutlery? SHE-T is the best ETF of the year last year. It is a gender diversity ETF. It has done better than the broad world index but only by a tiny amount.
Being Green. How do I invest in Biodegradable cutlery? SHE-T is the best ETF of the year last year. It is a gender diversity ETF. It has done better than the broad world index but only by a tiny amount.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 25, 2019
China announces intellectual property protection This is the critical part of the trade deal--great news. Bottom line though, Trump keeping tariffs on remains a big problem for the world economy. Meanwhile, markets keep marching higher; we're in a manic phase. No one knows where this could go. There's FOMO now. The combined market cap of Apple and Microsoft is twice the size of the US energy sector. This shows how mammoth these two corporations are, touching everyone's lives. There is concentration risk here, speaking to anti-trust issues. As for oil, it could be a value trap (though it will have rallies, especially if the TransMountain pipeline is built in Canada), because ESG is a growing force.
China announces intellectual property protection This is the critical part of the trade deal--great news. Bottom line though, Trump keeping tariffs on remains a big problem for the world economy. Meanwhile, markets keep marching higher; we're in a manic phase. No one knows where this could go. There's FOMO now. The combined market cap of Apple and Microsoft is twice the size of the US energy sector. This shows how mammoth these two corporations are, touching everyone's lives. There is concentration risk here, speaking to anti-trust issues. As for oil, it could be a value trap (though it will have rallies, especially if the TransMountain pipeline is built in Canada), because ESG is a growing force.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 25, 2019
Will the CAD rise to 80 cents vs. USD? No, he never said that, though he added alot of USD exposure as the CAD rose to 77 cents. The CAD will likely fall to 70 cents in the next downturn as Canadian oil prices weaken. So, he'd buy ETFs that have USD exposure.
Will the CAD rise to 80 cents vs. USD? No, he never said that, though he added alot of USD exposure as the CAD rose to 77 cents. The CAD will likely fall to 70 cents in the next downturn as Canadian oil prices weaken. So, he'd buy ETFs that have USD exposure.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
November 25, 2019
Gold - Holding https://www.mint.ca/store/mint/about-the-mint/exchange-traded-receipts-etr-6600002 Holding bullion is fine, but if you're really bullish gold, then hold the stocks. You'll get 2:1 upside vs. the bullion. He's market neutral, but very bullish gold long-term using call spreads using GDX. But gold could pullback to the $1,400 break-out; that's the downside risk.
Gold - Holding https://www.mint.ca/store/mint/about-the-mint/exchange-traded-receipts-etr-6600002 Holding bullion is fine, but if you're really bullish gold, then hold the stocks. You'll get 2:1 upside vs. the bullion. He's market neutral, but very bullish gold long-term using call spreads using GDX. But gold could pullback to the $1,400 break-out; that's the downside risk.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$26.395
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 25, 2019
What is a market "melt-up"? It's markets rising but defies logic. There's a lot of money on the sidelines. Towards the end of the year, money managers need to perform for the year, so those managers put money into the market to play catch up. FOMO plays a part. A melt-up is chasing performance.
What is a market "melt-up"? It's markets rising but defies logic. There's a lot of money on the sidelines. Towards the end of the year, money managers need to perform for the year, so those managers put money into the market to play catch up. FOMO plays a part. A melt-up is chasing performance.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
November 25, 2019
Has oil hit a bottom, so time to buy XEG? Could be a major bottom here. If we get the TransMountain done and release Alberta/Saskatchewan oil to world markets, this would be a huge value relief for the Canadian oil sector. However you play this, like XEG and ZDO, you will get a big bang for your buck on the small/mid-caps vs. the large-caps which have been beaten silly. Play XEG with an option strategy; buy a call spread in the future when you predict a rally. Pay for this by writing puts. If the market keeps declining, you'll be put at a lower price; the call option becomes free on the upside. Calling a bottom now is very difficult.
Has oil hit a bottom, so time to buy XEG? Could be a major bottom here. If we get the TransMountain done and release Alberta/Saskatchewan oil to world markets, this would be a huge value relief for the Canadian oil sector. However you play this, like XEG and ZDO, you will get a big bang for your buck on the small/mid-caps vs. the large-caps which have been beaten silly. Play XEG with an option strategy; buy a call spread in the future when you predict a rally. Pay for this by writing puts. If the market keeps declining, you'll be put at a lower price; the call option becomes free on the upside. Calling a bottom now is very difficult.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$8.510
Unknown
BUY
BUY
November 25, 2019
Short-term outlook for ZAG, XBB, SXB, PMIF-- broad bond exposure ETFs? Better to look at HISA-like, ETFs, like ZST, which are like money market funds with high-income/yield above 2%. These (the ETFs the caller mentions) still carry some duration risk. He'd much rather be in a money market-like EFT fund.
Short-term outlook for ZAG, XBB, SXB, PMIF-- broad bond exposure ETFs? Better to look at HISA-like, ETFs, like ZST, which are like money market funds with high-income/yield above 2%. These (the ETFs the caller mentions) still carry some duration risk. He'd much rather be in a money market-like EFT fund.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$50.960
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 25, 2019
It buys bonds under 1-year maturity (but these bonds had a higher coupon many years ago, say 5% when yields were much higher). You still get that 5% coupon, but when that bond falls within a year, it becomes like a money market instrument with the bond likely trading at 1.03%--losing $3 in capital. So, there's a natural erosion, because all the bonds in the index have been premium ones, meaning the ETF is buying them above par. So, what you earn in fixed income is yield to maturity, not the coupon.
It buys bonds under 1-year maturity (but these bonds had a higher coupon many years ago, say 5% when yields were much higher). You still get that 5% coupon, but when that bond falls within a year, it becomes like a money market instrument with the bond likely trading at 1.03%--losing $3 in capital. So, there's a natural erosion, because all the bonds in the index have been premium ones, meaning the ETF is buying them above par. So, what you earn in fixed income is yield to maturity, not the coupon.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$50.960
Unknown
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 25, 2019
Why do the dividends on this and similar ETFs fluctuate so much from quarter to quarter? The lumpiness may be due to M&A activity in the space and CQQ had to distribute a capital gain; or some international stocks pay dividends only once a year, so they're lumpy. Water infrastructure is so essential to human life, and this infrastructure is 100 years old and needs repair. A massive opportunity to rebuild and fix this, but the water space is not cheap.
Why do the dividends on this and similar ETFs fluctuate so much from quarter to quarter? The lumpiness may be due to M&A activity in the space and CQQ had to distribute a capital gain; or some international stocks pay dividends only once a year, so they're lumpy. Water infrastructure is so essential to human life, and this infrastructure is 100 years old and needs repair. A massive opportunity to rebuild and fix this, but the water space is not cheap.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$38.890
Unknown
BUY
BUY
November 25, 2019
Sustainable 3.2% yield? He manages this, holding stocks that pay dividends of 4% or more. The yield this pays is minus the MER around 75-79 basis points--and yes, the yield is sustainable. When he's most defensive and fearful of downside risk, he boasts the yield as much as he can while cutting the volatility to half or less. The yield will decline a bit, but the growth potential shoots way up into growth mode.
Sustainable 3.2% yield? He manages this, holding stocks that pay dividends of 4% or more. The yield this pays is minus the MER around 75-79 basis points--and yes, the yield is sustainable. When he's most defensive and fearful of downside risk, he boasts the yield as much as he can while cutting the volatility to half or less. The yield will decline a bit, but the growth potential shoots way up into growth mode.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$32.030
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 25, 2019
Educational Segment - costless collar (https://www.theoptionsguide.com/costless-collar.aspx) and Ray Dalio (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/22/global-markets-outlook-dalio-bearish-bet-squawk-box.html) Last week, Dalio (see link below) spent 70 basis points on his whole portfolio to hedge downside risk. Maybe he used options on the S&P, or on future or ETFs. He probably used a costless collar: you buy a put "at the money," say $3.11, to protect the downside. To pay for that, find the price of the call to match that put, usually slightly above where the market is. Your profit is capped at the level you write your call. Your entire downside risk is hedged with the put. He likely bought a put at SPY at $3.11 out to April 2020; this means he expects downside risk in the coming months. 70 basis points is 70% of one S&P point which is $2.18 of premium he spent. So, if he bought the $3.11 put ($11.29 and spent $2.18), that leaves $9.11, he could have written a $3.14 call and had the position fully paid for. So, he can still pay the dividends, protect the market risk 100% to the downside and still make one more percent if the market goes higher before he gets called away. He loves these option strategies especially late in the cycle. They avoid or lessen capital gains tax.
Educational Segment - costless collar (https://www.theoptionsguide.com/costless-collar.aspx) and Ray Dalio (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/22/global-markets-outlook-dalio-bearish-bet-squawk-box.html) Last week, Dalio (see link below) spent 70 basis points on his whole portfolio to hedge downside risk. Maybe he used options on the S&P, or on future or ETFs. He probably used a costless collar: you buy a put "at the money," say $3.11, to protect the downside. To pay for that, find the price of the call to match that put, usually slightly above where the market is. Your profit is capped at the level you write your call. Your entire downside risk is hedged with the put. He likely bought a put at SPY at $3.11 out to April 2020; this means he expects downside risk in the coming months. 70 basis points is 70% of one S&P point which is $2.18 of premium he spent. So, if he bought the $3.11 put ($11.29 and spent $2.18), that leaves $9.11, he could have written a $3.14 call and had the position fully paid for. So, he can still pay the dividends, protect the market risk 100% to the downside and still make one more percent if the market goes higher before he gets called away. He loves these option strategies especially late in the cycle. They avoid or lessen capital gains tax.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
November 18, 2019
Market. The bigger story is why Saudis are selling their oil now. Share buybacks are what is boosting earnings for S&P companies. This is not a time to get bullish on the stock market. One way or the other 50-100 years from now the vast majority of the world will be on alternatives to carbon. The Saudis are converting a 10-30 year life-span asset and converting it to cash. This is the biggest insider sale in history. BRK-N has massive cash on the sidelines right now compared to past years.
Market. The bigger story is why Saudis are selling their oil now. Share buybacks are what is boosting earnings for S&P companies. This is not a time to get bullish on the stock market. One way or the other 50-100 years from now the vast majority of the world will be on alternatives to carbon. The Saudis are converting a 10-30 year life-span asset and converting it to cash. This is the biggest insider sale in history. BRK-N has massive cash on the sidelines right now compared to past years.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
November 18, 2019
The Inevitable Debt Meltdown. You can look at debt levels as a percent of GDP. There cannot be a forgiveness of debt. The debt is owned by pension plans. He thinks countries will monetize the debt by printing money and inflating the currencies. He does not see a way out. It is an argument for 5-10 years for interest rates to stay low.
The Inevitable Debt Meltdown. You can look at debt levels as a percent of GDP. There cannot be a forgiveness of debt. The debt is owned by pension plans. He thinks countries will monetize the debt by printing money and inflating the currencies. He does not see a way out. It is an argument for 5-10 years for interest rates to stay low.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 18, 2019
Low volatile ETF. He would be a buyer at $28. It has been a phenomenal performer compared to the TSX.
Low volatile ETF. He would be a buyer at $28. It has been a phenomenal performer compared to the TSX.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$34.840
Unknown
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 18, 2019
A great company but very interest rate sensitive. The dividend is safe. There is lots of free cash flow. There is only risk in volatility. He would not add new money. Just buy it on the dips.
A great company but very interest rate sensitive. The dividend is safe. There is lots of free cash flow. There is only risk in volatility. He would not add new money. Just buy it on the dips.
mngmnt/diversified
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$53.740
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 18, 2019
It is a split share financial corp. It has a big distribution. There was volatility in three periods from 2011. You have to be mindful of the volatility. There is some leverage involved and downside risk in times of market volatility. He would avoid this at the moment.
It is a split share financial corp. It has a big distribution. There was volatility in three periods from 2011. You have to be mindful of the volatility. There is some leverage involved and downside risk in times of market volatility. He would avoid this at the moment.
investment companies/funds
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$8.460
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 18, 2019
It is a US version of the ZLB-T. This is not a time to put money to work in equities. Wait for a pull back for sure. He likes this as a defensive play.
It is a US version of the ZLB-T. This is not a time to put money to work in equities. Wait for a pull back for sure. He likes this as a defensive play.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$38.450
Unknown
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 18, 2019
This is the way he is playing the US energy sector. He is starting t nibble again. He thinks the dividend is good and safe. He would nibble into the tax loss selling as it happens this week.
This is the way he is playing the US energy sector. He is starting t nibble again. He thinks the dividend is good and safe. He would nibble into the tax loss selling as it happens this week.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$7.865
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 18, 2019
Where is money coming out of equities going to go – bonds? He prefers to play it through TLT-N. ZTL-T plays it in CAD$.
Where is money coming out of equities going to go – bonds? He prefers to play it through TLT-N. ZTL-T plays it in CAD$.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
November 18, 2019
Long Canadian bonds. The real flight to safety is into the US and into US$. He would go into the US version, although this one is fine. He is still quite bullish on the treasury market.
Long Canadian bonds. The real flight to safety is into the US and into US$. He would go into the US version, although this one is fine. He is still quite bullish on the treasury market.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$18.760
Unknown
N/A
N/A
November 18, 2019
Educational Segment. Gold and Gold Investing. It is a fantastic asset class. The biggest problem is that it yields nothing. Going back 10 years, GLD-X vs. VT-N: Gold is uncorrelated to equities. We are right now at a time when volatility in gold is relatively low. Option strategies will be cheap. There are short term risks on Gold. If GLD-N pulls back to support, he will have sold two puts and bought one call. We want to be buying pull backs.
Educational Segment. Gold and Gold Investing. It is a fantastic asset class. The biggest problem is that it yields nothing. Going back 10 years, GLD-X vs. VT-N: Gold is uncorrelated to equities. We are right now at a time when volatility in gold is relatively low. Option strategies will be cheap. There are short term risks on Gold. If GLD-N pulls back to support, he will have sold two puts and bought one call. We want to be buying pull backs.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
November 11, 2019
Market. [Larry's Market Comment was pre-empted by Remembrance Day Coverage.]
Market. [Larry's Market Comment was pre-empted by Remembrance Day Coverage.]
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
November 11, 2019
Fixed income is broken. Returns are likely to stay low for a long time. This ETF has a basket of index inflation bonds and some strategies based on yield curve steepening and a hedge on interest rate movement. He loves these kinds of strategies. The MER is 1% but in the fixed income world you have to look at products like this.
Fixed income is broken. Returns are likely to stay low for a long time. This ETF has a basket of index inflation bonds and some strategies based on yield curve steepening and a hedge on interest rate movement. He loves these kinds of strategies. The MER is 1% but in the fixed income world you have to look at products like this.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$25.230
Unknown
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 11, 2019
5G is the Internet of things. This is a sector with tremendous long term potential but don't jump into it with the markets at all time highs.
5G is the Internet of things. This is a sector with tremendous long term potential but don't jump into it with the markets at all time highs.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$25.410
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 11, 2019
Renewables are the future so he likes it from that perspective.
Renewables are the future so he likes it from that perspective.
Utilities
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$56.440
Unknown
WAIT
WAIT
November 11, 2019
US Pipelines. This is a candidate for tax loss selling. He expects more pressure between now and mid-December and then it will be a good buy.
US Pipelines. This is a candidate for tax loss selling. He expects more pressure between now and mid-December and then it will be a good buy.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$8.275
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 11, 2019
Financial, Tech and Services. The low volume is not a concern. It's been out two years and has not generated enough investment to be profitable so he is concerned it could get shut down. An ETF has the liquidity of their underlying securities. It's a very interesting play.
Financial, Tech and Services. The low volume is not a concern. It's been out two years and has not generated enough investment to be profitable so he is concerned it could get shut down. An ETF has the liquidity of their underlying securities. It's a very interesting play.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$1.480
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 11, 2019
It is paying a 17+% dividend because it used to be double the valuation. Don't expect that dividend rate to remain. He suspects it will be cut.
It is paying a 17+% dividend because it used to be double the valuation. Don't expect that dividend rate to remain. He suspects it will be cut.
oil/gas
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$2.710
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 11, 2019
Where to park cash when out of the market. He would want to put his money in a US$ money market strategy. Note that the markets could keep going up for 2 or 3 years.
Where to park cash when out of the market. He would want to put his money in a US$ money market strategy. Note that the markets could keep going up for 2 or 3 years.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
November 11, 2019
Educational Segment. He thinks interest rates will continue to go lower. When we get to a recession, the best asset class to own is longer term fixed income – the US treasury market. He thinks the US 10 year will go to yielding close to zero during the next recession so owning it now will be a good investment. There is so much debt in the world that we can't see interest rates going up because we can't afford it.
Educational Segment. He thinks interest rates will continue to go lower. When we get to a recession, the best asset class to own is longer term fixed income – the US treasury market. He thinks the US 10 year will go to yielding close to zero during the next recession so owning it now will be a good investment. There is so much debt in the world that we can't see interest rates going up because we can't afford it.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
November 4, 2019
Market. Trade with China: Phase I (he does not see a phase II and III). Most of the difficult things will not get solved easily in the next few years. The countries each have a different philosophy. Markets are excited but we are going to be no better off than three years go in trading with China. The tariffs will still be on. The market sees this as good because things are not getting worse. On the VT-N, we have not broken out on a world basis yet. The US is leading this and when you look at other world markets we are nowhere near this. We are in a large cap earnings recession. He will be surprised if we get any S&P earnings growth over the next year. This is an opportunity to lighten up on your portfolio. Markets increasing is about QE coming and a potential trade deal that won't move the needle. You want to get more conservative in the market, not more aggressive.
Market. Trade with China: Phase I (he does not see a phase II and III). Most of the difficult things will not get solved easily in the next few years. The countries each have a different philosophy. Markets are excited but we are going to be no better off than three years go in trading with China. The tariffs will still be on. The market sees this as good because things are not getting worse. On the VT-N, we have not broken out on a world basis yet. The US is leading this and when you look at other world markets we are nowhere near this. We are in a large cap earnings recession. He will be surprised if we get any S&P earnings growth over the next year. This is an opportunity to lighten up on your portfolio. Markets increasing is about QE coming and a potential trade deal that won't move the needle. You want to get more conservative in the market, not more aggressive.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
November 4, 2019
An ETF recommendation for Quantitative Hedging. HHF-T tracks the hedge fund index. QAI-N is an alternative in the US. It is a multi-strategy ETF. They both do a reasonable job. Over a 10 year period of time when equities doubled, these were up 20-40%. Now, though, some of these ETFs might be right for you.
An ETF recommendation for Quantitative Hedging. HHF-T tracks the hedge fund index. QAI-N is an alternative in the US. It is a multi-strategy ETF. They both do a reasonable job. Over a 10 year period of time when equities doubled, these were up 20-40%. Now, though, some of these ETFs might be right for you.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
November 4, 2019
An ETF recommendation for Quantitative Hedging. HHF-T tracks the hedge fund index. QAI-N is an alternative in the US. It is a multi-strategy ETF. They both do a reasonable job. Over a 10 year period of time when equities doubled, these were up 20-40%. Now, though, some of these ETFs might be right for you.
An ETF recommendation for Quantitative Hedging. HHF-T tracks the hedge fund index. QAI-N is an alternative in the US. It is a multi-strategy ETF. They both do a reasonable job. Over a 10 year period of time when equities doubled, these were up 20-40%. Now, though, some of these ETFs might be right for you.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$0.000
_N/A
N/A
N/A
November 4, 2019
An ETF recommendation for Quantitative Hedging. HHF-T tracks the hedge fund index. QAI-N is an alternative in the US. It is a multi-strategy ETF. They both do a reasonable job. Over a 10 year period of time when equities doubled, these were up 20-40%. Now, though, some of these ETFs might be right for you.
An ETF recommendation for Quantitative Hedging. HHF-T tracks the hedge fund index. QAI-N is an alternative in the US. It is a multi-strategy ETF. They both do a reasonable job. Over a 10 year period of time when equities doubled, these were up 20-40%. Now, though, some of these ETFs might be right for you.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$30.880
_N/A
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 4, 2019
The fixed income of people's portfolios is severely impaired. In this ETF the distribution is the coupon earned and not the yield to maturity. The distribution is higher. He would prefer short term corporate bonds, XCB-T.