Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3707 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 18, 2021
Option expiry day for JPM was on Friday and we saw reaction following bank earnings. We may see Feds talk about raising rates. We will see a flattening yield curve and reactions to bank stocks that are close to ATH. We have had a massive move since November with the vaccine news. There will be a correction.
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Option expiry day for JPM was on Friday and we saw reaction following bank earnings. We may see Feds talk about raising rates. We will see a flattening yield curve and reactions to bank stocks that are close to ATH. We have had a massive move since November with the vaccine news. There will be a correction.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 18, 2021
It's not necessarily a big week for earnings. The big tech names won't report until next week. It will give us an idea of earnings and growth. There will be a risk to not see the same performance as last year in big tech. There may be some market disappointment.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's not necessarily a big week for earnings. The big tech names won't report until next week. It will give us an idea of earnings and growth. There will be a risk to not see the same performance as last year in big tech. There may be some market disappointment.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 18, 2021
Keystone XL. They are in risk mitigation mode. Canada needs more capacity to distribute the product to Asia, not necessarily to the US. Does not know how this will play out. The news is still meaningful for Canada and the relationship with the Biden administration.
Show full opinionHide full opinionKeystone XL. They are in risk mitigation mode. Canada needs more capacity to distribute the product to Asia, not necessarily to the US. Does not know how this will play out. The news is still meaningful for Canada and the relationship with the Biden administration.
BUY
BUY
January 18, 2021
The best way to play the recovery is base metals. Copper will be important for electrification, as well as steel for infrastructure. It probably still have legs for the sector to double in the coming years.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe best way to play the recovery is base metals. Copper will be important for electrification, as well as steel for infrastructure. It probably still have legs for the sector to double in the coming years.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 18, 2021
This ETF has around 8000 stocks. There are large, mid, small caps with developed and emerging markets. It is a benchmark to compare to the world markets. There isn't an equivalent one in Canada.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThis ETF has around 8000 stocks. There are large, mid, small caps with developed and emerging markets. It is a benchmark to compare to the world markets. There isn't an equivalent one in Canada.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 18, 2021
Trailing yield is around 5%. Playing on an equal weight basis is probably easier since you get more exposure to the industrial and apartment REITs which have good value and growth potential. It is the retail and office sector that will be challenging in the next years.
Show full opinionHide full opinionTrailing yield is around 5%. Playing on an equal weight basis is probably easier since you get more exposure to the industrial and apartment REITs which have good value and growth potential. It is the retail and office sector that will be challenging in the next years.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
January 18, 2021
Still bullish on outlook on precious metals. Central banks will have to monetize debt to keep the party going. We will still see growth but at the expense of the balance sheet. Monetizing debt will be a theme for the foreseeable future. Silver is an important compartment for electrification so it could see a good play. Gold will be important for the devaluation of fiat currency.
Show full opinionHide full opinionStill bullish on outlook on precious metals. Central banks will have to monetize debt to keep the party going. We will still see growth but at the expense of the balance sheet. Monetizing debt will be a theme for the foreseeable future. Silver is an important compartment for electrification so it could see a good play. Gold will be important for the devaluation of fiat currency.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 18, 2021
The stock is being priced and valued on emotion, it is hard to value. The average target is $148 a year out. However, there has been downgrades with price targets now lower than where it is at right now. This year, they will make a lot of money because of covid, but after, it is questionable. It will be volatile.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe stock is being priced and valued on emotion, it is hard to value. The average target is $148 a year out. However, there has been downgrades with price targets now lower than where it is at right now. This year, they will make a lot of money because of covid, but after, it is questionable. It will be volatile.
Pharma & Healthcare
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 18, 2021
It will be a big industry that will be huge in the future. There is still 30%-50% upside in the future. The question should be whether you would add new money or not. If you do not want to , it is time to cash out.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt will be a big industry that will be huge in the future. There is still 30%-50% upside in the future. The question should be whether you would add new money or not. If you do not want to , it is time to cash out.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 18, 2021
There will be tremendous volatility with rallies when the yield curve steepens and then being hammered when the curve flattens. You must be disciplined for lifecos. Interest rates will not go up and normalize in a 5-year timeframe. Buy the dips but do not buy in strength.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere will be tremendous volatility with rallies when the yield curve steepens and then being hammered when the curve flattens. You must be disciplined for lifecos. Interest rates will not go up and normalize in a 5-year timeframe. Buy the dips but do not buy in strength.
insurance
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 18, 2021
Educational Segment. Today's topic is on equity risk premium, or the multiple the market is willing to accept. Analysis on liquidity has been about the central bank and Fed put. How much debt do they have to use to fund the programs. In 2021, we will be short 4 trillion to fund all the spending this year. This will come from sucking liquidity out of the market. When there is more supply than demand, equity risk premium go down and yields go up. A challenge for financial markets.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Today's topic is on equity risk premium, or the multiple the market is willing to accept. Analysis on liquidity has been about the central bank and Fed put. How much debt do they have to use to fund the programs. In 2021, we will be short 4 trillion to fund all the spending this year. This will come from sucking liquidity out of the market. When there is more supply than demand, equity risk premium go down and yields go up. A challenge for financial markets.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 11, 2021
For 2020, the market was expecting $170 in earnings. We got $125 because of covid. Looking at 2021 and recovery, the estimate is around $166-$175 for the S&P500. The multiple is at 23x - 24x, which is quite expensive. Earnings will need to deliver to justify these multiples. Interest rates have also been a justification for the multiple. However, interest rates are creeping up. It should add volatility in the first quarter.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFor 2020, the market was expecting $170 in earnings. We got $125 because of covid. Looking at 2021 and recovery, the estimate is around $166-$175 for the S&P500. The multiple is at 23x - 24x, which is quite expensive. Earnings will need to deliver to justify these multiples. Interest rates have also been a justification for the multiple. However, interest rates are creeping up. It should add volatility in the first quarter.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 11, 2021
Stimulus will happen regardless. However, it may be a little ways away. He expects to see more stimulus in February and March. The Trump impeachment process should not bother the markets too much.
Show full opinionHide full opinionStimulus will happen regardless. However, it may be a little ways away. He expects to see more stimulus in February and March. The Trump impeachment process should not bother the markets too much.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 11, 2021
Gold and bitcoins. Still bullish on gold. People who would buy gold as a hedge for fiat devaluation is now buying Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is incredibly volatile. Gold has thousands of years of history as a store of currency. Bitcoin is taking money flow from gold however.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold and bitcoins. Still bullish on gold. People who would buy gold as a hedge for fiat devaluation is now buying Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is incredibly volatile. Gold has thousands of years of history as a store of currency. Bitcoin is taking money flow from gold however.
BUY
BUY
January 11, 2021
A great way to play copper. It is a diversified way to play it. There is a lot of room to run. A move to electrification will continue to raise demand.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA great way to play copper. It is a diversified way to play it. There is a lot of room to run. A move to electrification will continue to raise demand.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 11, 2021
A play on reflation and infrastructure. All metals are great reflationary play. Looking at a 10 year chart, you can see that there is runway. Short term it is over bought, but once there is a bit of market volatility in weakness, jump in. Potential 20-30% upside.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA play on reflation and infrastructure. All metals are great reflationary play. Looking at a 10 year chart, you can see that there is runway. Short term it is over bought, but once there is a bit of market volatility in weakness, jump in. Potential 20-30% upside.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 11, 2021
It is wages that ultimately cause inflation. This ETF has utilities and so is very interest rate sensitive. If interest rates creep up, this will lag a little.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is wages that ultimately cause inflation. This ETF has utilities and so is very interest rate sensitive. If interest rates creep up, this will lag a little.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 11, 2021
Educational Segment. There has been a spike in call volume in the last weeks. The more people speculate with calls, there is more leverage that pushes the market higher. There is more hedging that is required due to this. The indicator shows that the S&P500 are in the cautionary area. The market has nonetheless gone higher due to the leverage coming in. Once the options expire, the hedger needs to sell the hedge. Friday's option expiry will be interesting. He expects some market impact. There is a lot of speculative money which does not make it high quality.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. There has been a spike in call volume in the last weeks. The more people speculate with calls, there is more leverage that pushes the market higher. There is more hedging that is required due to this. The indicator shows that the S&P500 are in the cautionary area. The market has nonetheless gone higher due to the leverage coming in. Once the options expire, the hedger needs to sell the hedge. Friday's option expiry will be interesting. He expects some market impact. There is a lot of speculative money which does not make it high quality.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2021
Georgia senate race. It would be easier for Congress to spend on infrastructure if the democrats win. We see this particularly in the gold sector where it reflects the printing of money for these programs if the dems win. From a market perspective, the only reason the markets are stable is with the promise of more spending.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGeorgia senate race. It would be easier for Congress to spend on infrastructure if the democrats win. We see this particularly in the gold sector where it reflects the printing of money for these programs if the dems win. From a market perspective, the only reason the markets are stable is with the promise of more spending.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2021
He hopes the bull market run this time won't end in tears, but fair market value is around 20-50% lower. However, it is hard to predict where it tops out. It could be years. He's not sure if the correction will come this year, but there will be volatility to take advantage of. There is still a lot of money on the side lines.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe hopes the bull market run this time won't end in tears, but fair market value is around 20-50% lower. However, it is hard to predict where it tops out. It could be years. He's not sure if the correction will come this year, but there will be volatility to take advantage of. There is still a lot of money on the side lines.
BUY
BUY
January 4, 2021
Renewables make up third of the fund. It gives a more growth profile for this ETF. It is not higher risk per se because they are still utilities. They will remain interest rate sensitive but rates shouldn't go up in the near future. Still a good buy and hold.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRenewables make up third of the fund. It gives a more growth profile for this ETF. It is not higher risk per se because they are still utilities. They will remain interest rate sensitive but rates shouldn't go up in the near future. Still a good buy and hold.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
January 4, 2021
The growth and adoption of these technologies have been breathtaking. We end up seeing massive speculation and they price in 3-5 years of really good earnings potential before settling back down. These thematic plays have priced in good news for the next couple years. At some point, earnings need to catch up to price where you could see it go sideways or pullback. This ETF would be a great way to play the new med-tech space.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe growth and adoption of these technologies have been breathtaking. We end up seeing massive speculation and they price in 3-5 years of really good earnings potential before settling back down. These thematic plays have priced in good news for the next couple years. At some point, earnings need to catch up to price where you could see it go sideways or pullback. This ETF would be a great way to play the new med-tech space.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 4, 2021
Likes royalty because there is less business risk. However, it is not risk free. Probably a good buy on dips. The reflation trade is interesting. For the next 6-12 months, it is okay for a trade.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLikes royalty because there is less business risk. However, it is not risk free. Probably a good buy on dips. The reflation trade is interesting. For the next 6-12 months, it is okay for a trade.
BUY
BUY
January 4, 2021
A way to buy equities that are over priced right now so there are puts written to buy under certain prices. There are also calls to generate yield. It generates a yield of around 6%. On average, there is half the risk of US markets. Favourite holding and biggest part of his yield based portfolio.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA way to buy equities that are over priced right now so there are puts written to buy under certain prices. There are also calls to generate yield. It generates a yield of around 6%. On average, there is half the risk of US markets. Favourite holding and biggest part of his yield based portfolio.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2021
There is tremendous capacity in office space in major cities right now. Not sure when this will be fully priced in. Real estate is still a good investment in the long term. It is a great hedge to inflation. Short term there are challenges, especially for office space.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere is tremendous capacity in office space in major cities right now. Not sure when this will be fully priced in. Real estate is still a good investment in the long term. It is a great hedge to inflation. Short term there are challenges, especially for office space.
REAL ESTATE
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 4, 2021
A leverage play on gold stocks. You have rebalancing risk which you do not want for gold. The factors that drive price of gold is currency and real interest rates. We are in negative real interest rates. Therefore, the major driving factor is the interest rate more than currency. Gold is starting to respond.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA leverage play on gold stocks. You have rebalancing risk which you do not want for gold. The factors that drive price of gold is currency and real interest rates. We are in negative real interest rates. Therefore, the major driving factor is the interest rate more than currency. Gold is starting to respond.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2021
Educational Segment. At market tops, where we see divergencies in stock price and momentum there is market breadth. When there is market breadth, we usually get good follow through. Over the next couple weeks, he is keeping an eye out for market breadth indicators that points to volatility in Q1. Q1 should offer a buying opportunity. Market breadth is very strong and average stocks should see some performance. He would shy away from over invested large cap tech where we could see under performance. He has shifted from large cap names to an equal weight allocation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. At market tops, where we see divergencies in stock price and momentum there is market breadth. When there is market breadth, we usually get good follow through. Over the next couple weeks, he is keeping an eye out for market breadth indicators that points to volatility in Q1. Q1 should offer a buying opportunity. Market breadth is very strong and average stocks should see some performance. He would shy away from over invested large cap tech where we could see under performance. He has shifted from large cap names to an equal weight allocation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The new strain from the UK underscores the hope that the markets have formed under the presumption of the vaccine and government aid. There are real growth challenges and it is not a surprise to see set backs. The markets are really over valued, but he is unsure if we will get to fair market value without a major policy mistake. Central Banks must continue stimulus.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe new strain from the UK underscores the hope that the markets have formed under the presumption of the vaccine and government aid. There are real growth challenges and it is not a surprise to see set backs. The markets are really over valued, but he is unsure if we will get to fair market value without a major policy mistake. Central Banks must continue stimulus.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
There are still 20M people receiving benefits in the US. There is more stimulus coming but it will not pass until the new congress, probably in February.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere are still 20M people receiving benefits in the US. There is more stimulus coming but it will not pass until the new congress, probably in February.
BUY
BUY
December 21, 2020
It has credit card companies, Square, Paypal. It has players developing the tech or processing payment. A good way to play the digital payment space.
Financial Services
BUY
BUY
December 21, 2020
Gold. Very bullish on gold. Central banks want to anchor interest rates at 0 and there are inflationary pressures.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold. Very bullish on gold. Central banks want to anchor interest rates at 0 and there are inflationary pressures.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe ETFs are better to go because of diversification. There is a little more upside but not a whole lot more. There will not be increases in interest rates any time soon. Rates shouldn't go much lower either. The rates should remain stable.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 21, 2020
It is a great way to see different places and lots of people are looking forward to going on a cruise. However, the recovery will be after covid. Cruises are a virus hotspot. They will not be making any money for a year or so. This has already been priced in.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is a great way to see different places and lots of people are looking forward to going on a cruise. However, the recovery will be after covid. Cruises are a virus hotspot. They will not be making any money for a year or so. This has already been priced in.
Transportation
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The difference between ZWE and ZWP is the currency hedge. If you think the CAD will do worse than European currencies, then you want a ZWP. If you think the CAD will strengthen against these currencies, get ZWE. He recently swapped into ZWP since he wants foreign currency exposure.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
The difference between ZWE and ZWP is the currency hedge. If you think the CAD will do worse than European currencies, then you want a ZWP. If you think the CAD will strengthen against these currencies, get ZWE. He recently swapped into ZWP since he wants foreign currency exposure.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
December 21, 2020
The caveat for this ETF is that Tesla is grossly overvalued. The only reason for buying Tesla was for the inclusion in the S&P. They currently trades at $1.5M per car they will sell next year.
The caveat for this ETF is that Tesla is grossly overvalued. The only reason for buying Tesla was for the inclusion in the S&P. They currently trades at $1.5M per car they will sell next year.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2020
Educational Segment. The expectations for the S&P 500 varies in range from the low end of 3800 and the high end of 4400. Consensus for earnings is $172 with a multiple around 23 or 24. You get an average target of 4085. There may be as much as 10% upside. Every metric for valuing the market is in the 100 percentile. The US market has never been more expensive. EV to EBITDA is at the most expensive it has every been.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. The expectations for the S&P 500 varies in range from the low end of 3800 and the high end of 4400. Consensus for earnings is $172 with a multiple around 23 or 24. You get an average target of 4085. There may be as much as 10% upside. Every metric for valuing the market is in the 100 percentile. The US market has never been more expensive. EV to EBITDA is at the most expensive it has every been.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
The markets are excited for a stimulus bill but there is wide disagreement between the Democrats and the Republicans on what it should look like. It will come down to the Georgia senate race. It could be February when we see a big stimulus bill.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe markets are excited for a stimulus bill but there is wide disagreement between the Democrats and the Republicans on what it should look like. It will come down to the Georgia senate race. It could be February when we see a big stimulus bill.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
US Index Rebalancing. Tesla is the biggest stock to be added to an index in terms of its influence. It means that you have to sell proportionally the other big names to allocate to Tesla. The stock is very overvalued. The indexers will get hooped here, and there will be significant selling following its index inclusion.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUS Index Rebalancing. Tesla is the biggest stock to be added to an index in terms of its influence. It means that you have to sell proportionally the other big names to allocate to Tesla. The stock is very overvalued. The indexers will get hooped here, and there will be significant selling following its index inclusion.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Federal Reserve. It is unlikely they will say they will do more. They need fiscal spending to monetize the debt. They are expected to reiterate their commitment to do more with fiscal spending. Longer-end rates are rising and they want to contain these rates.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFederal Reserve. It is unlikely they will say they will do more. They need fiscal spending to monetize the debt. They are expected to reiterate their commitment to do more with fiscal spending. Longer-end rates are rising and they want to contain these rates.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
The relationship between the US and China will be strained for years. The US is overvalued compared to China. This ETF excludes the Chinese market so it could be a choice for investors who want to invest in Asia but is wary of the politics with China.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe relationship between the US and China will be strained for years. The US is overvalued compared to China. This ETF excludes the Chinese market so it could be a choice for investors who want to invest in Asia but is wary of the politics with China.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
ZFH-T is exposure to short-term high yield credit using a swap strategy to mitigate the interest rate risk. You still get credit risk. ZHY trade more like equities than bonds. People are seeking the higher yields. A floating rate note mitigates the interest rate risk only.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
ZFH is exposure to short-term high yield credit using a swap strategy to mitigate the interest rate risk. You still get credit risk. ZHY trade more like equities than bonds. People are seeking the higher yields. A floating rate note mitigates the interest rate risk only.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
The global infrastructure ETFs are not the way to play future infrastructure spending by countries. ZGI is a way to play traditional infrastructure like utilities, pipelines and telecos.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe global infrastructure ETFs are not the way to play future infrastructure spending by countries. ZGI is a way to play traditional infrastructure like utilities, pipelines and telecos.
E.T.F.'s
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
December 14, 2020
Short term, this is over-bought. In Q1 next year, there might be pullback. He is looking to trim some of his holdings from a tactical perspective but he will not sell his full position. Copper is particular interesting.
Show full opinionHide full opinionShort term, this is over-bought. In Q1 next year, there might be pullback. He is looking to trim some of his holdings from a tactical perspective but he will not sell his full position. Copper is particular interesting.
E.T.F.'s
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
December 14, 2020
Exposure to the covid vaccine is quite minimal in this ETF. Very short term over-bought and he expects a 10-15% correction. Trim some exposure into strength. Longer term, the biotech sector looks good.
Show full opinionHide full opinionExposure to the covid vaccine is quite minimal in this ETF. Very short term over-bought and he expects a 10-15% correction. Trim some exposure into strength. Longer term, the biotech sector looks good.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Both the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBoth the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Both the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBoth the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.
E.T.F.'s
HOLD
HOLD
December 14, 2020
This is the best way for high dividend seekers to get exposure outside of North America. During covid, we saw high dividend payers sell off more than others. As the economy rebalances, the stock should do well. He boosted exposure to this sector.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThis is the best way for high dividend seekers to get exposure outside of North America. During covid, we saw high dividend payers sell off more than others. As the economy rebalances, the stock should do well. He boosted exposure to this sector.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2020
Educational Segment. Seasonality matters some times and other times not at all. In the US, there is the presidential cycle that creates this pattern of spending. Right now, the Santa Claus rally is at its most powerful. In the first year of the presidential cycle, the pattern changes. January and February does not bode well in terms of returns. There will be a good opportunity in Q1 to put money to work.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Seasonality matters some times and other times not at all. In the US, there is the presidential cycle that creates this pattern of spending. Right now, the Santa Claus rally is at its most powerful. In the first year of the presidential cycle, the pattern changes. January and February does not bode well in terms of returns. There will be a good opportunity in Q1 to put money to work.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 7, 2020
Stimulus. We probably won't get a massive spending bill like what the Democrats were hoping for. Democrats are really hoping to swing the senate in Georgia in January which could help them get more stimulus. Very much a political hot potato. How the Feds and Central Bank will monetize the debt is also a key point to watch.
Show full opinionHide full opinion