Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3387 Opinions
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Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
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N/A
June 5, 2020
Market. He does not like the market here from a valuation perspective. The market is seeing something he is not seeing. He thinks there is a lot more economic damage to come. Today there were numbers suggesting quite a bit of job recovery. He does not see the US dollar selling off a whole lot more. The Canadian dollar is trading along side the US dollar and he does not see it getting a whole lot stronger.
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Market. He does not like the market here from a valuation perspective. The market is seeing something he is not seeing. He thinks there is a lot more economic damage to come. Today there were numbers suggesting quite a bit of job recovery. He does not see the US dollar selling off a whole lot more. The Canadian dollar is trading along side the US dollar and he does not see it getting a whole lot stronger.
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June 5, 2020
Another Market Downturn Still to Come? He thinks we will not shut everyone down during a second wave. We are more prepared to handle this round. He still thinks we could get to the lows of a few months ago at some point, maybe a bit below. The fundamentals of the economy will not come back as rapidly as the decline took place.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAnother Market Downturn Still to Come? He thinks we will not shut everyone down during a second wave. We are more prepared to handle this round. He still thinks we could get to the lows of a few months ago at some point, maybe a bit below. The fundamentals of the economy will not come back as rapidly as the decline took place.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 5, 2020
They will probably have no trouble collecting their rents. Their business will be challenged by the AMZN-Q model. He would not chase them here as they are expensive.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey will probably have no trouble collecting their rents. Their business will be challenged by the AMZN-Q model. He would not chase them here as they are expensive.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
June 5, 2020
It is a healthcare play with a covered call overlay. He likes it as a more defensive way to play healthcare. It may depend on the US election this fall.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is a healthcare play with a covered call overlay. He likes it as a more defensive way to play healthcare. It may depend on the US election this fall.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 5, 2020
When you look at the momentum names and value names, the latter tend to be more banks. The online stuff has pulled back a bit. He would not chase COMM-T at present, however.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWhen you look at the momentum names and value names, the latter tend to be more banks. The online stuff has pulled back a bit. He would not chase COMM-T at present, however.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
June 5, 2020
Gold ETF recommendation. You are not early on this story. It is his favourite asset class by far. However it will be extremely volatile for the next couple of years. Once we get through the deflationary time it will be an inflationary one. ZGD-T for equities. GLD-N is the biggest ETF for gold. [Larry's audio connection was too broken up to capture other tickers he mentioned].
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold ETF recommendation. You are not early on this story. It is his favourite asset class by far. However it will be extremely volatile for the next couple of years. Once we get through the deflationary time it will be an inflationary one. ZGD-T for equities. GLD-N is the biggest ETF for gold. [Larry's audio connection was too broken up to capture other tickers he mentioned].
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June 5, 2020
Educational Segment. The bond market is broken. The message is different than from the stock market. He looked at a Fed fund futures chart; he showed how they backed off a little after employment numbers this morning. The chart is suggesting a zero Fed Funds Rate next year. He expects negative interest rates. On a chart of Euro futures, the curve goes out for a decade at no more than 1.5% central bank interest rate. There will be no rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. The bond market is broken. The message is different than from the stock market. He looked at a Fed fund futures chart; he showed how they backed off a little after employment numbers this morning. The chart is suggesting a zero Fed Funds Rate next year. He expects negative interest rates. On a chart of Euro futures, the curve goes out for a decade at no more than 1.5% central bank interest rate. There will be no rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
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May 29, 2020
Market. LB-T cut their dividend, violating the sanctity of the Canadian Bank Dividend. Is there a possibility of others having to do this? Look at real estate. Banks set aside a record amount for loans going sour. People got mortgage deferrals. We can do that for a couple of months but not for ever. It is going to take quite a while for things to normalize. The vast majority of the loan books in Canada are syndicated and the banks don't have massive exposure but they do have exposure to lending. He thinks it will be for longer than the markets realize. Trump made his pronouncement about China and it was not as bad as some feared. He knows what to say and what not to say. As we get closer to the election he will get more brazen in his rhetoric about China. The markets are underestimating the importance of it.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. LB-T cut their dividend, violating the sanctity of the Canadian Bank Dividend. Is there a possibility of others having to do this? Look at real estate. Banks set aside a record amount for loans going sour. People got mortgage deferrals. We can do that for a couple of months but not for ever. It is going to take quite a while for things to normalize. The vast majority of the loan books in Canada are syndicated and the banks don't have massive exposure but they do have exposure to lending. He thinks it will be for longer than the markets realize. Trump made his pronouncement about China and it was not as bad as some feared. He knows what to say and what not to say. As we get closer to the election he will get more brazen in his rhetoric about China. The markets are underestimating the importance of it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
Recommendation to support Canadian Tech Firms. Canada has virtually no technology. TEC-T is about 50% exposure to the US. It is the way to play Canadian technology.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRecommendation to support Canadian Tech Firms. Canada has virtually no technology. TEC-T is about 50% exposure to the US. It is the way to play Canadian technology.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
May 29, 2020
Favourite Gold Stock. It is one of his favourite asset classes. He does not pick stocks out of the group. He would rather get the right theme. Play the sector with ZGD-T or XGD-T or GDX-N, GDXJ-N or ZJG-T, rather than a particular stock.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFavourite Gold Stock. It is one of his favourite asset classes. He does not pick stocks out of the group. He would rather get the right theme. Play the sector with ZGD-T or XGD-T or GDX-N, GDXJ-N or ZJG-T, rather than a particular stock.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
Hedging and how. If it is a taxable account it is more robust than in a registered account. You can use inverse ETFs but you would have to be half in cash. You could go to VBAL-T. It depends what kind of account you have.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHedging and how. If it is a taxable account it is more robust than in a registered account. You can use inverse ETFs but you would have to be half in cash. You could go to VBAL-T. It depends what kind of account you have.
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
May 29, 2020
He started to nibble. Expect a lot of volatility. He likes it on valuation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe started to nibble. Expect a lot of volatility. He likes it on valuation.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
There are going to be challenges to REITs and what he likes now is the apartment REIT. He would be patient.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere are going to be challenges to REITs and what he likes now is the apartment REIT. He would be patient.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
ZDY-T vs. XDU-T. He is indifferent. We will be challenged for the next few years in dividend growth. XDU-T outperformed ZDY-T recently. You get a slightly different mix of companies. You get high dividend payers or quality dividend payers. He would get both, not one or the other.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
ZDY-T vs. XDU-T. He is indifferent. We will be challenged for the next few years in dividend growth. XDU-T outperformed ZDY-T recently. You get a slightly different mix of companies. You get high dividend payers or quality dividend payers. He would get both, not one or the other.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 29, 2020
Strip Bonds. You HAD the benefit of falling interest rates. He thinks you will have stagflation going forward. It will prevent bond yields going up so he could not stay with strips.
Show full opinionHide full opinionStrip Bonds. You HAD the benefit of falling interest rates. He thinks you will have stagflation going forward. It will prevent bond yields going up so he could not stay with strips.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
Educational Segment. V' Shaped Market Recovery. Fundamentally the risk factors are equity market valuations. Earnings estimates are too high for the S&P. The market is as expensive now as it was in 2000. Markets don’t bottom until we wash out expectations on earnings. There is a lot more to do on the downside before we can get bullish.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. V' Shaped Market Recovery. Fundamentally the risk factors are equity market valuations. Earnings estimates are too high for the S&P. The market is as expensive now as it was in 2000. Markets don’t bottom until we wash out expectations on earnings. There is a lot more to do on the downside before we can get bullish.
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May 22, 2020
Market. They EU is going to back a Euro bond. It is yet more effort from government to put unprecedented support behind the response to COVID-19. The world is awash in debt and they are throwing more debt at it. They will eventually have to monetize it. There is the battle between the US and China and between China and Hong King and these are just more hurtles to get over. China has dropped its economic growth plan.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. They EU is going to back a Euro bond. It is yet more effort from government to put unprecedented support behind the response to COVID-19. The world is awash in debt and they are throwing more debt at it. They will eventually have to monetize it. There is the battle between the US and China and between China and Hong King and these are just more hurtles to get over. China has dropped its economic growth plan.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 22, 2020
Bonds. There is not much yield left anywhere in the world and if you factor in inflation, you have negative yield. Once we get through the deflationary effect of COVOD over a year or more, we are going to have a massive run of inflation. The Fed is planning on buying all bonds above a certain amount. The bond market will be owned by the Fed.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBonds. There is not much yield left anywhere in the world and if you factor in inflation, you have negative yield. Once we get through the deflationary effect of COVOD over a year or more, we are going to have a massive run of inflation. The Fed is planning on buying all bonds above a certain amount. The bond market will be owned by the Fed.
BUY
BUY
May 22, 2020
They do a screening and pick some of the best companies in the US. They write puts on the stocks they want and take the yield back. On stocks they own, they write calls on them at higher prices. It is a strategy he really loves. See the BMo web site.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey do a screening and pick some of the best companies in the US. They write puts on the stocks they want and take the yield back. On stocks they own, they write calls on them at higher prices. It is a strategy he really loves. See the BMo web site.
E.T.F.'s
WAIT
WAIT
May 22, 2020
Copper. COPX is a basket of copper miners so you are not buying the copper commodity. Buy on the next step down.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCopper. COPX is a basket of copper miners so you are not buying the copper commodity. Buy on the next step down.
WAIT
WAIT
May 22, 2020
Copper. COPX is a basket of copper miners so you are not buying the copper commodity. Buy on the next step down.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCopper. COPX is a basket of copper miners so you are not buying the copper commodity. Buy on the next step down.
E.T.F.'s
WAIT
WAIT
May 22, 2020
Some of the best technology and cyber security companies in the world. This is a great ETF to play it. Wait for another market swing down. Don’t over concentrate in this.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSome of the best technology and cyber security companies in the world. This is a great ETF to play it. Wait for another market swing down. Don’t over concentrate in this.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 22, 2020
Gold. It is extremely unlikely it will drop dramatically in the short term. He would buy into the dip. It is headed higher for years to come. When bond yields are zero or negative, then gold has no competitor.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold. It is extremely unlikely it will drop dramatically in the short term. He would buy into the dip. It is headed higher for years to come. When bond yields are zero or negative, then gold has no competitor.
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May 22, 2020
Educational Segment. Comparison of present economic situation to that of the early eighties. At the beginning of the eighties Regan had some economic tailwinds behind him. Today we have grossly underfunded pension funds, healthcare and have a massive need for infrastructure as well as major concerns about the environment. There is a tragic demographic in the form of the ratio of people of working age to the young and old which will get worse for decades to come. There is also a massive decline in the output of labour. These are all headwinds they did not have in the early eighties. In investing, quality will be one of the most important factors.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Comparison of present economic situation to that of the early eighties. At the beginning of the eighties Regan had some economic tailwinds behind him. Today we have grossly underfunded pension funds, healthcare and have a massive need for infrastructure as well as major concerns about the environment. There is a tragic demographic in the form of the ratio of people of working age to the young and old which will get worse for decades to come. There is also a massive decline in the output of labour. These are all headwinds they did not have in the early eighties. In investing, quality will be one of the most important factors.
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May 15, 2020
Market. There is a new cold war developing between China and the US to be fought on the trade front. We expect more of this. Semi conductors took a bit of a hit on this and there is a lot more to come. Equity markets did not like Trump tweeting that he was tariff man back in 2018 and they won't like this. The exuberance from March is running out. The average stock is very much in a bear market.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. There is a new cold war developing between China and the US to be fought on the trade front. We expect more of this. Semi conductors took a bit of a hit on this and there is a lot more to come. Equity markets did not like Trump tweeting that he was tariff man back in 2018 and they won't like this. The exuberance from March is running out. The average stock is very much in a bear market.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
Just buy covered call ETFs? You should be more diversified including being diversified globally. When you are getting those dividends, remember that they can be cut. He has no other issue otherwise.
Show full opinionHide full opinionJust buy covered call ETFs? You should be more diversified including being diversified globally. When you are getting those dividends, remember that they can be cut. He has no other issue otherwise.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
Own corporate bonds rather than equities since they will likely be backstopped by the fed. In the US there are several ETFs for corporate bonds. LQD-N is a good one (liquid corporate bond universe) but there is some interest rate risk. You pick up 350 basis points on this. This is not a bad play right now. The FED started buying it last week. Don't broadly jump into junk bonds here.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOwn corporate bonds rather than equities since they will likely be backstopped by the fed. In the US there are several ETFs for corporate bonds. LQD-N is a good one (liquid corporate bond universe) but there is some interest rate risk. You pick up 350 basis points on this. This is not a bad play right now. The FED started buying it last week. Don't broadly jump into junk bonds here.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
Health care leaders. It is an active strategy. HHL-T does interesting things like options to generate extra yield and takes a more active view. Healthcare is an interesting space.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHealth care leaders. It is an active strategy. HHL-T does interesting things like options to generate extra yield and takes a more active view. Healthcare is an interesting space.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 15, 2020
Short term it is a goodbye. You are too early on this by a couple of years at least. Flat and inverted yield curves are toxic for their earnings. The Canadian banks are some of the better ones in the world as they rely more on fees than on interest margins. You also get dividend tax credits.
Show full opinionHide full opinionShort term it is a goodbye. You are too early on this by a couple of years at least. Flat and inverted yield curves are toxic for their earnings. The Canadian banks are some of the better ones in the world as they rely more on fees than on interest margins. You also get dividend tax credits.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
Real Estate. He would look at apartment dividend equities. Canadian for taxable accounts or globally for registered accounts. ZWE-T is a recommendation for international dividend payers.
Show full opinionHide full opinionReal Estate. He would look at apartment dividend equities. Canadian for taxable accounts or globally for registered accounts. ZWE-T is a recommendation for international dividend payers.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
You have equity risk. It writes puts as well as owning the companies and writes calls to sell them higher. It pays you for these. About 6% yield at about half the risk of the S&P.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou have equity risk. It writes puts as well as owning the companies and writes calls to sell them higher. It pays you for these. About 6% yield at about half the risk of the S&P.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 15, 2020
The Canadian tech sector is not great in that it is not diversified. It is a bet on SHOP-T. You could buy it on the next big swing down.
The Canadian tech sector is not great in that it is not diversified. It is a bet on SHOP-T. You could buy it on the next big swing down.
E.T.F.'s
N/A
N/A
May 15, 2020
Educational Segment. The role of government and how we measure economic success. He is concerned about the path the world has taken to try to fix the issues. We have thrown easy money at them. 6 stocks make 17% of the US market. It is inequality. We need a fix. There is an OECD better life index that looks at how society is doing. He thinks we should measure quality of life. FED funds futures are pointing to negative interest rates. We are going to a money printing world.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. The role of government and how we measure economic success. He is concerned about the path the world has taken to try to fix the issues. We have thrown easy money at them. 6 stocks make 17% of the US market. It is inequality. We need a fix. There is an OECD better life index that looks at how society is doing. He thinks we should measure quality of life. FED funds futures are pointing to negative interest rates. We are going to a money printing world.
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April 2, 2020
Educational Segment. Market. He suggested last week that the rally was more about a rebalance between bonds and stocks on a quarterly basis. That is now clearly what it was. Part of the legislation in the US says that any corporations that are going to need help from the government are going to have a restriction on share buy backs or dividend issuing until the loan is paid off. He showed a chart of expected dividends from the S&P and how three months ago they would go up steadily. Now they will take a dip and then climb back to what they are now in about a decade. His sleep at night portfolio (ZZZD-T) sank with others until about a week ago and then rose and has lost less than his other comparisons YTD.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Market. He suggested last week that the rally was more about a rebalance between bonds and stocks on a quarterly basis. That is now clearly what it was. Part of the legislation in the US says that any corporations that are going to need help from the government are going to have a restriction on share buy backs or dividend issuing until the loan is paid off. He showed a chart of expected dividends from the S&P and how three months ago they would go up steadily. Now they will take a dip and then climb back to what they are now in about a decade. His sleep at night portfolio (ZZZD-T) sank with others until about a week ago and then rose and has lost less than his other comparisons YTD.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.
E.T.F.'s
WATCH
WATCH
April 2, 2020
There is more volatility to come. The government of Canada wants to minimize the energy industry. There is a serious push for climate change. You'll get a lot more support in the US than in Canada, but you have to consider the tax implications if it is a cash account instead of a registered account. The current situation will require cuts from every nation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere is more volatility to come. The government of Canada wants to minimize the energy industry. There is a serious push for climate change. You'll get a lot more support in the US than in Canada, but you have to consider the tax implications if it is a cash account instead of a registered account. The current situation will require cuts from every nation.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZWB-T vs. ZEB-T. If your view on the banks is sideways to down a little bit, then ZWB-T is the better holding but if you are bullish on the banks then you don’t want the covered calls. He prefers ZEB-T right now because he wants all the price capture upside when the banks recover.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZWB-T vs. ZEB-T. If your view on the banks is sideways to down a little bit, then ZWB-T is the better holding but if you are bullish on the banks then you don’t want the covered calls. He prefers ZEB-T right now because he wants all the price capture upside when the banks recover.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
EFTs Selling Holdings. 95% of units bought and sold of an ETF involve one unit holder selling to another. Ultimately when the market maker is accumulating positions and does not want to hold them, they are forced to sell them. Other than this 5% of transactions, there is no impact on the underlying shares.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEFTs Selling Holdings. 95% of units bought and sold of an ETF involve one unit holder selling to another. Ultimately when the market maker is accumulating positions and does not want to hold them, they are forced to sell them. Other than this 5% of transactions, there is no impact on the underlying shares.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 2, 2020
The first oil futures contract today (the front month) is trading below the back month contract, which is 'contango'. The opposite case is 'backwardation'. Inside the ETF they own the front month and then on the transition day, about a week before, they sell the front month and buy the back month. If the front month is lower than the back month and the price of oil does not rise in the second month then you will lose that forward carry. If you don't understand these mechanics then you are at a serious disadvantage with this product.
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