Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3130 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 6.5%.) He looks at an ETF’s performance relative to other ETF's in the group. Still screening very well. Exposed to emerging markets, so in a market correction, this will correct more so.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 4.1%.) More conservative. Gives exposure to international dividend paying products.
Top Short It is at the very top end where at similar points there have been major corrections. Risk/reward is starting to turn negative. A one-month and three-month average of the daily breadth shows a lot of good news has been priced in already.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 7.2%.) This is the transport sector. One thing that is helping is the airlines, which have taken off again.
Chart shows good uptrend. South Korea has a lot of good things happening to it. North Korea looks like they are backing down from their nuclear stance.
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Your ReactionSignal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
N/A
N/A
September 16, 2019
Market. The attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The markets are under reacting because they don’t know what the policy response will be but Trump does not want a war. From an investment standpoint, we have to watch crack spreads because a spike in oil pricing puts up refining costs. We are seeing a weakness globally in demand for the refined products. The ETF CRAK-N is up a small percent today which is a material difference from the broader energy sector. This is a key thing to watch. Last week we saw a massive reversal in bonds. The question now is where the buyers step in. We are still heading for recession and this is just a technical correction. People should learn how to work this asset class into their portfolios. Gold is a tremendous asset class and nothing has changed recently.
Market. The attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The markets are under reacting because they don’t know what the policy response will be but Trump does not want a war. From an investment standpoint, we have to watch crack spreads because a spike in oil pricing puts up refining costs. We are seeing a weakness globally in demand for the refined products. The ETF CRAK-N is up a small percent today which is a material difference from the broader energy sector. This is a key thing to watch. Last week we saw a massive reversal in bonds. The question now is where the buyers step in. We are still heading for recession and this is just a technical correction. People should learn how to work this asset class into their portfolios. Gold is a tremendous asset class and nothing has changed recently.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
September 16, 2019
Canadian Dollar 3 to 6 months out. We are probably going to hang out at $0.75 give or take a bit. 3 to 6 months out he thinks the global economy will weaken and the Canadian economy is headed for recession. Use strength in the Canadian dollar to buy snow bird dollars.
Canadian Dollar 3 to 6 months out. We are probably going to hang out at $0.75 give or take a bit. 3 to 6 months out he thinks the global economy will weaken and the Canadian economy is headed for recession. Use strength in the Canadian dollar to buy snow bird dollars.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
September 16, 2019
He thinks we are headed to all electronic money over the next 5 to 20 years, Cyber security will be one of the most important things. But look at the volatility. When we get these extreme shocks in the sector that is when you want to buy. He does not have much exposure right now.
He thinks we are headed to all electronic money over the next 5 to 20 years, Cyber security will be one of the most important things. But look at the volatility. When we get these extreme shocks in the sector that is when you want to buy. He does not have much exposure right now.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$26.600
No
BUY
BUY
September 16, 2019
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$13.900
Unknown
BUY
BUY
September 16, 2019
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$18.960
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 16, 2019
Saudi Arabia. This is a shock and more temporary than permanent. This is not good for anything globally. Oil prices go up and supply is constrained. This is not a reason to be excited about Canadian banks [as caller asked].
Saudi Arabia. This is a shock and more temporary than permanent. This is not good for anything globally. Oil prices go up and supply is constrained. This is not a reason to be excited about Canadian banks [as caller asked].
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
September 16, 2019
Index funds being a bubble. There is a battle between the managers that are tracking indexes and those actively managing. It is not in a bubble because it is money coming from a mutual fund because of higher costs. It does not matter whether you sell an ETF or a mutual fund, to the market.
Index funds being a bubble. There is a battle between the managers that are tracking indexes and those actively managing. It is not in a bubble because it is money coming from a mutual fund because of higher costs. It does not matter whether you sell an ETF or a mutual fund, to the market.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
September 16, 2019
You are buying stocks that are less vulnerable to the economic cycle. If markets go down then these go down less. This is not a bad factor in selecting investments. The quality factor is those with clean balance sheets, low leverage and good divided coverage.
You are buying stocks that are less vulnerable to the economic cycle. If markets go down then these go down less. This is not a bad factor in selecting investments. The quality factor is those with clean balance sheets, low leverage and good divided coverage.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$44.180
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 16, 2019
US Investment with Growth Potential but good tax treatment in a Canadian based account. Horizons' has a new structure called Corporate Class and you can defer your taxes as they are done with total return swaps and no annual distributions.
US Investment with Growth Potential but good tax treatment in a Canadian based account. Horizons' has a new structure called Corporate Class and you can defer your taxes as they are done with total return swaps and no annual distributions.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
September 16, 2019
Educational Segment. How do you Structure you Portfolio for Events like Saudi Arabia this week? We have an event now to think about. Don’t try to trade the noise on day one or two. Make sure your portfolios are structured to reach your goals in the longer term. This is probably temporary. We probably get a spike in oil prices and you should use this to reduce your oil exposure. You can't forecast international relations. Don’t make any big bets on this. The 2018 high in oil will be a monumental resistance. AMLP-N is the pipelines ETF in the US, which is the way he is playing it. He would trim this above $10.
Educational Segment. How do you Structure you Portfolio for Events like Saudi Arabia this week? We have an event now to think about. Don’t try to trade the noise on day one or two. Make sure your portfolios are structured to reach your goals in the longer term. This is probably temporary. We probably get a spike in oil prices and you should use this to reduce your oil exposure. You can't forecast international relations. Don’t make any big bets on this. The 2018 high in oil will be a monumental resistance. AMLP-N is the pipelines ETF in the US, which is the way he is playing it. He would trim this above $10.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
September 9, 2019
Market. Brexit: He sees the UK currency adjusted to be very attractive. He is looking at money going to Great Britain at this point. There are always rules and deadlines. It is a bit of a bees nest. As things weaken and get cheaper he is looking at adding exposure. EWU-T is large cap British stocks & EWUS-T is for small caps, which he is tilting to.
Market. Brexit: He sees the UK currency adjusted to be very attractive. He is looking at money going to Great Britain at this point. There are always rules and deadlines. It is a bit of a bees nest. As things weaken and get cheaper he is looking at adding exposure. EWU-T is large cap British stocks & EWUS-T is for small caps, which he is tilting to.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
WATCH
WATCH
September 9, 2019
Canadian Banks in a negative rate environment. Dividends are safe in a big downturn but there is price risk. Look at the ZEB-T over the last few years. The banking group has not had any gains and this will get worse in a negative rate environment. We could see a 30-50% correction in banks if we go into a prolonged downturn. He would not plow into the banks just because the dividends are safe.
Canadian Banks in a negative rate environment. Dividends are safe in a big downturn but there is price risk. Look at the ZEB-T over the last few years. The banking group has not had any gains and this will get worse in a negative rate environment. We could see a 30-50% correction in banks if we go into a prolonged downturn. He would not plow into the banks just because the dividends are safe.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
WATCH
WATCH
September 9, 2019
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$20.270
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 9, 2019
There is a play on energy names going into the election as there may be money coming into the sector depending on who wins. He would trade it but not invest in it. It should be an underweight.
There is a play on energy names going into the election as there may be money coming into the sector depending on who wins. He would trade it but not invest in it. It should be an underweight.
oil/gas
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$5.140
Unknown
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
ETF in Utilities Recommendation for TFSA. One of his favourite ways to play utilities is the ZWU-T to give exposure to Canadian and US utilities. 70/30. It has a covered call overlay. 6-7% yield expected. Not a lot of volatility.
ETF in Utilities Recommendation for TFSA. One of his favourite ways to play utilities is the ZWU-T to give exposure to Canadian and US utilities. 70/30. It has a covered call overlay. 6-7% yield expected. Not a lot of volatility.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$13.800
Unknown
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 9, 2019
Gold. He does not work in fundamentals. He thinks there is a huge upside still and would buy on dips.
Gold. He does not work in fundamentals. He thinks there is a huge upside still and would buy on dips.
precious metals
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$123.560
Unknown
WATCH
WATCH
September 9, 2019
He uses GDX to play the mid to large gold sector. You want to buy dips. It will be volatile in the next few months.
He uses GDX to play the mid to large gold sector. You want to buy dips. It will be volatile in the next few months.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$27.760
Unknown
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
Dividend ETFs with a monthly dividend, covered calls and a high yield. They give you great exposure to great companies.
Dividend ETFs with a monthly dividend, covered calls and a high yield. They give you great exposure to great companies.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$20.270
Unknown
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
Dividend ETFs with a monthly dividend, covered calls and a high yield. They give you great exposure to great companies.
Dividend ETFs with a monthly dividend, covered calls and a high yield. They give you great exposure to great companies.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$17.090
Unknown
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
Dividend ETFs with a monthly dividend, covered calls and a high yield. They give you great exposure to great companies.
Dividend ETFs with a monthly dividend, covered calls and a high yield. They give you great exposure to great companies.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$20.640
Unknown
N/A
N/A
September 9, 2019
Educational Segment. Interest Rate Market Globally. Germany just issued a 30 year bond with a negative interest rate. It makes no sense unless you think the currency will be worth less in 30 years than now. QE may not get the positive results in the equity markets that we love. Fixed income is going to be the most challenging question for investors.
Educational Segment. Interest Rate Market Globally. Germany just issued a 30 year bond with a negative interest rate. It makes no sense unless you think the currency will be worth less in 30 years than now. QE may not get the positive results in the equity markets that we love. Fixed income is going to be the most challenging question for investors.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
[Berman's Call was pre-empted by G7 Coverage]
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
August 19, 2019
Market. Friday morning, 10am, is the only thing that matters this week. What is Powel going to tell us and the world about US monitory policy by the Fed. Last time he was clear that this was a mid-cycle course correction. There is hope that he says that maybe things are slowing and it is more than a mid-cycle correction. Nobody knows if it is the case, this is an experiment in real time. How do you get people to spend more money? Policies designed to stimulate work until debt levels get toxic.
Market. Friday morning, 10am, is the only thing that matters this week. What is Powel going to tell us and the world about US monitory policy by the Fed. Last time he was clear that this was a mid-cycle course correction. There is hope that he says that maybe things are slowing and it is more than a mid-cycle correction. Nobody knows if it is the case, this is an experiment in real time. How do you get people to spend more money? Policies designed to stimulate work until debt levels get toxic.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
August 19, 2019
Hong Kong Situation and Exposure to Portfolio. There is some tangential exposure through capital markets' risk. As a percentage it is pretty insignificant. There is probably non-financial systemic risk in it. But economical output coming from Hong Kong is huge and real estate values are the most overvalued market in the world. He is worried this represents an impediment to a trade deal with the US. There is some belief by China that the US is behind all of this. This is not going away any time soon. He thinks this is a big negative. Chinese stocks are amongst, however, the best valued in the world so he is increasingly looking at adding exposure after a broader market correction.
Hong Kong Situation and Exposure to Portfolio. There is some tangential exposure through capital markets' risk. As a percentage it is pretty insignificant. There is probably non-financial systemic risk in it. But economical output coming from Hong Kong is huge and real estate values are the most overvalued market in the world. He is worried this represents an impediment to a trade deal with the US. There is some belief by China that the US is behind all of this. This is not going away any time soon. He thinks this is a big negative. Chinese stocks are amongst, however, the best valued in the world so he is increasingly looking at adding exposure after a broader market correction.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 19, 2019
Covered Call Utilities. Utilities, Pipelines and Telcos. The pipeline exposure is going to give you volatility linked to energy prices. Interest rate sensitivity is related to Telcos. Whenever we get interest rate anxiety or oil price anxiety, you get price pressure on this one. He is looking to add below $13. He thinks we will be able to hold the yield.
Covered Call Utilities. Utilities, Pipelines and Telcos. The pipeline exposure is going to give you volatility linked to energy prices. Interest rate sensitivity is related to Telcos. Whenever we get interest rate anxiety or oil price anxiety, you get price pressure on this one. He is looking to add below $13. He thinks we will be able to hold the yield.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$13.700
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 19, 2019
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$15.380
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 19, 2019
banks
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$94.010
Unknown
N/A
N/A
August 19, 2019
Educational Segment. Collapsing Bond Yields. He is looking, in his next road show, at the difficulty with these low interest rate environments. We have about a quarter of the world's bond universe with a negative yield. Negative debt in the world Tops $16 Billion ($15 Billion last week). We have now started to see conversations on main stream media about inverted yield curves. The 3 month to 10 years curve has been inverted since May. This has historically portended a recession in a year or two. We could be one foot into it. He is worried about inflation at some point.
Educational Segment. Collapsing Bond Yields. He is looking, in his next road show, at the difficulty with these low interest rate environments. We have about a quarter of the world's bond universe with a negative yield. Negative debt in the world Tops $16 Billion ($15 Billion last week). We have now started to see conversations on main stream media about inverted yield curves. The 3 month to 10 years curve has been inverted since May. This has historically portended a recession in a year or two. We could be one foot into it. He is worried about inflation at some point.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 19, 2019
A good quality basket of dividend payers in the US. He prefers ZWH-T to be in US dividends. He likes them both as a defensive way to play.
A good quality basket of dividend payers in the US. He prefers ZWH-T to be in US dividends. He likes them both as a defensive way to play.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$0.000
Unknown
N/A
N/A
August 12, 2019
Market. Trump has accused China of currency manipulation. China is moving toward a free floating currency. The 7% level on the Chinese US is a big Psychological point. He thinks we are slowly going to go up. It will stress financial markets a little. This is a big factor in the commodity sector but he would not focus on it. China has been slowing for almost 15 years now. The trade deal with the US is what matters. The S&P has no business being where it is right now. We should get a re-test of the December lows later this year. His geopolitical risk monitor has never been higher. He is concerned.
Market. Trump has accused China of currency manipulation. China is moving toward a free floating currency. The 7% level on the Chinese US is a big Psychological point. He thinks we are slowly going to go up. It will stress financial markets a little. This is a big factor in the commodity sector but he would not focus on it. China has been slowing for almost 15 years now. The trade deal with the US is what matters. The S&P has no business being where it is right now. We should get a re-test of the December lows later this year. His geopolitical risk monitor has never been higher. He is concerned.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
August 12, 2019
ETF for parking US, Canadian and Australian $ to be used at short notice. With interest rates as low as they are you are not going to get a low risk yield and take it in. In the high yield space there are some options but they have equity-like risk. Putting CAD$ in a foreign currency, it is attractive to hold US$. The DLR-T gives you a money market type yield. FXA is the Australian dollar ETF.
ETF for parking US, Canadian and Australian $ to be used at short notice. With interest rates as low as they are you are not going to get a low risk yield and take it in. In the high yield space there are some options but they have equity-like risk. Putting CAD$ in a foreign currency, it is attractive to hold US$. The DLR-T gives you a money market type yield. FXA is the Australian dollar ETF.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
August 12, 2019
ETF for parking US, Canadian and Australian $ to be used at short notice. With interest rates as low as they are you are not going to get a low risk yield and take it in. In the high yield space there are some options but they have equity-like risk. Putting CAD$ in a foreign currency, it is attractive to hold US$. The DLR-T gives you a money market type yield. FXA is the Australian dollar ETF.
ETF for parking US, Canadian and Australian $ to be used at short notice. With interest rates as low as they are you are not going to get a low risk yield and take it in. In the high yield space there are some options but they have equity-like risk. Putting CAD$ in a foreign currency, it is attractive to hold US$. The DLR-T gives you a money market type yield. FXA is the Australian dollar ETF.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$13.410
_N/A
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 12, 2019
Top 4 ETFs when a correction starts, with a 15 year time horizon to retirement. You need a core position in the S&P. It is 40% of the world equity markets. He likes technology and cyber security and emerging market technology. EMQQ is like a NASDAQ exposure. ITEQ is Israel Technology. Put small amounts in these areas. Underweight Canada. Wait until we have dropped 25% before moving into these. We will get to 40% in the upcoming correction.
Top 4 ETFs when a correction starts, with a 15 year time horizon to retirement. You need a core position in the S&P. It is 40% of the world equity markets. He likes technology and cyber security and emerging market technology. EMQQ is like a NASDAQ exposure. ITEQ is Israel Technology. Put small amounts in these areas. Underweight Canada. Wait until we have dropped 25% before moving into these. We will get to 40% in the upcoming correction.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 12, 2019
There is value in it at $10 to $15 dollars. Insurance companies in a negative interest rate environment are tragic. This sector is a 'Hard Avoid' until the dust settles.
There is value in it at $10 to $15 dollars. Insurance companies in a negative interest rate environment are tragic. This sector is a 'Hard Avoid' until the dust settles.
insurance
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$27.880
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 12, 2019
There is evidence of a bottom developing but he thinks we are in a world where growth is slowing. You need a robust economy to invest here, but it may be tradable. The story over 5 years is down.
There is evidence of a bottom developing but he thinks we are in a world where growth is slowing. You need a robust economy to invest here, but it may be tradable. The story over 5 years is down.
integrated mines
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$0.275
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 12, 2019
It is an interesting play here. One would need to understand the fundamentals which he does not focus on. Looking at the chart, there were issues and now a bottom is developing. You would need to take out the $2 resistance. He would avoid it. It is completely speculative on a turnaround.
It is an interesting play here. One would need to understand the fundamentals which he does not focus on. Looking at the chart, there were issues and now a bottom is developing. You would need to take out the $2 resistance. He would avoid it. It is completely speculative on a turnaround.
transportation equip & components
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$1.730
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 12, 2019
It is not a gold ETF but an investment company focusing on special metals. It is like a proxy on precious metals and he would rather go directly to the commodity. He loves the gold space.
It is not a gold ETF but an investment company focusing on special metals. It is like a proxy on precious metals and he would rather go directly to the commodity. He loves the gold space.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$32.260
Unknown
N/A
N/A
August 12, 2019
Educational Segment. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold is an attractive asset class. GDX-N is an example. Gold peaked out at US$1900 in 2011 and there will be a lot of resistance at $1525. He thinks we have a date with gold at $1900 again. It's at a 35 year low and is a no-brainer. He thinks this ETF could double.
Educational Segment. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold is an attractive asset class. GDX-N is an example. Gold peaked out at US$1900 in 2011 and there will be a lot of resistance at $1525. He thinks we have a date with gold at $1900 again. It's at a 35 year low and is a no-brainer. He thinks this ETF could double.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
August 12, 2019
Educational Segment. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold is an attractive asset class. GDX-N is an example. Gold peaked out at US$1900 in 2011 and there will be a lot of resistance at $1525. He thinks we have a date with gold at $1900 again. It's at a 35 year low and is a no-brainer. He thinks this ETF could double.
Educational Segment. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold with negative interest rates. Gold is an attractive asset class. GDX-N is an example. Gold peaked out at US$1900 in 2011 and there will be a lot of resistance at $1525. He thinks we have a date with gold at $1900 again. It's at a 35 year low and is a no-brainer. He thinks this ETF could double.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$28.990
_N/A
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 12, 2019
It is a strip corp. where they strip out the dividend. You will see price shocks on this one. It is highly leveraged. He does not like it. There is a lot of risk here.
It is a strip corp. where they strip out the dividend. You will see price shocks on this one. It is highly leveraged. He does not like it. There is a lot of risk here.
investment companies/funds
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$8.700
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 12, 2019
Oil. Thumbs down before it goes materially higher. We are going down into the $30s in the next recession.
Oil. Thumbs down before it goes materially higher. We are going down into the $30s in the next recession.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 29, 2019
On Friday, Trump said maybe China won't do a trade deal until after the US election. The markets are very complacent now, though we are entering seasonal volatility. Trade is a big negative, one of his four risk factors. We're more likely to see what happened in Q4 2018 than a melt-up. The US Fed cut interest rates at full employment shows how weak the broad economy is. As the trade war persists, we'll continue to see downgrades to continue and it's only a matter of time before stocks reflect that....Powell risk is in presenting the US economy as weak, because that could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy...The big selloff of the UK pound today is linked to a growing acceptance of a no-deal Brexit under new PM Johnson. Maybe don't pile into this trade now, but in 5-10 years the UK pound will turn out to be a great investment.
On Friday, Trump said maybe China won't do a trade deal until after the US election. The markets are very complacent now, though we are entering seasonal volatility. Trade is a big negative, one of his four risk factors. We're more likely to see what happened in Q4 2018 than a melt-up. The US Fed cut interest rates at full employment shows how weak the broad economy is. As the trade war persists, we'll continue to see downgrades to continue and it's only a matter of time before stocks reflect that....Powell risk is in presenting the US economy as weak, because that could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy...The big selloff of the UK pound today is linked to a growing acceptance of a no-deal Brexit under new PM Johnson. Maybe don't pile into this trade now, but in 5-10 years the UK pound will turn out to be a great investment.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 29, 2019
How did negative interest rates happen? Japan was the first in order to stimulate the economy. It doesn't work, because of demographics and debt issues that won't change. An aging population won't take advantage of lower rates to go out and spend a lot; a younger demographic will. In fact, an aging population wants a safe savings rate that is not negative. Policies that worked 50 years ago, don't work now. It's a different game. It's hard for banks to be profitable. We'll be stuck in a slow-growth world perhaps for decades, limited by so much debt. Central banks are printing money because they've lost control of fiscal policy.
How did negative interest rates happen? Japan was the first in order to stimulate the economy. It doesn't work, because of demographics and debt issues that won't change. An aging population won't take advantage of lower rates to go out and spend a lot; a younger demographic will. In fact, an aging population wants a safe savings rate that is not negative. Policies that worked 50 years ago, don't work now. It's a different game. It's hard for banks to be profitable. We'll be stuck in a slow-growth world perhaps for decades, limited by so much debt. Central banks are printing money because they've lost control of fiscal policy.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
July 29, 2019
ZWE Some of the best dividend payers in the world with a covered call overlay are in ZWH which has some European exposure. This is excellent for defensive investors who rely on 5-7% yields to live. This lets you sleep at night. This won't eliminate the downside and won't increase as much as the rest of the market, but it is a steady payer. Cash? There's little yield there.
ZWE Some of the best dividend payers in the world with a covered call overlay are in ZWH which has some European exposure. This is excellent for defensive investors who rely on 5-7% yields to live. This lets you sleep at night. This won't eliminate the downside and won't increase as much as the rest of the market, but it is a steady payer. Cash? There's little yield there.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$20.860
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 29, 2019
The threat of e-commerce Yes, it's a threat, but late cycle these REITs do very well because central banks tend to cut interest rates. When the recession eventually hits, it will hit REITs hard. So, don't buy REITs now. They aren't cheap.
The threat of e-commerce Yes, it's a threat, but late cycle these REITs do very well because central banks tend to cut interest rates. When the recession eventually hits, it will hit REITs hard. So, don't buy REITs now. They aren't cheap.
property mngmnt/investment
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$26.280
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 29, 2019
How low will the US 10-year yield go? -1%. The British 10-year is -0.70%, so why can't the US go there? The old low, post-Brexit, was 1.35-1.60% It will be stuck in that range, depending on how bad the economy gets. He expects the US 10-year to fall to -1% and the 30-year will be -2%. He still likes bonds. We won't normalize rates for a while, unfortunately.
How low will the US 10-year yield go? -1%. The British 10-year is -0.70%, so why can't the US go there? The old low, post-Brexit, was 1.35-1.60% It will be stuck in that range, depending on how bad the economy gets. He expects the US 10-year to fall to -1% and the 30-year will be -2%. He still likes bonds. We won't normalize rates for a while, unfortunately.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
July 29, 2019
Gold will struggle at $1,450 due to overhead supply. $1,500 is half of gold's 10 year chart with a big sell-off at $1,900 and $1,100 being the floor. Support is in the low-$1,500s that'll be tough to crack. Depending on the central banks, if gold rises above that level then it will test old highs. XGD itself is a double or more from here. When XGD fell below $9 last fall, he called a 50% rise, which is happening now. The upside is still strong, based on highs in 2011.
Gold will struggle at $1,450 due to overhead supply. $1,500 is half of gold's 10 year chart with a big sell-off at $1,900 and $1,100 being the floor. Support is in the low-$1,500s that'll be tough to crack. Depending on the central banks, if gold rises above that level then it will test old highs. XGD itself is a double or more from here. When XGD fell below $9 last fall, he called a 50% rise, which is happening now. The upside is still strong, based on highs in 2011.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$14.770
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 29, 2019
It's correlated to Canadian oil. The next phase will be a recession, so oil prices will likely see $25 rather than $75. This means, CWB will fall too.
It's correlated to Canadian oil. The next phase will be a recession, so oil prices will likely see $25 rather than $75. This means, CWB will fall too.