Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
2487
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com

2487
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


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General Market Comment 

January 15, 2018

Market.  Into 2018 the expectation for earnings growth is very high.  It looks like the markets could creep higher but we could start to see more volatility in them.  You have to be cautious on the market.  Analysts can tend to be overly optimistic on companies they follow.  A weaker US$ which we continue to see is good for corporate US earnings.  Gold is a range trade for a number of years.  He thinks we may get a bit of a breakout to the upside.  He has been adding gold positions on weakness.  A new survey on the ability of Canadians to service indebtedness may cause the BOC to be a bit dovish this week and to hold off on more increases for a year.

Market.  Into 2018 the expectation for earnings growth is very high.  It looks like the markets could creep higher but we could start to see more volatility in them.  You have to be cautious on the market.  Analysts can tend to be overly optimistic on companies they follow.  A weaker US$ which we continue to see is good for corporate US earnings.  Gold is a range trade for a number of years.  He thinks we may get a bit of a breakout to the upside.  He has been adding gold positions on weakness.  A new survey on the ability of Canadians to service indebtedness may cause the BOC to be a bit dovish this week and to hold off on more increases for a year.

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General Market Comment 

January 15, 2018

Zinc.  From the beginning of where Trump was elected we saw a dramatic change in US$ expectations.  This put a lot of upside price pressure on many commodities around the world, Zinc especially.  He believes the US$ will not continue to weaken in a big way from where it is today.  He would not chase base metals here.  We are in the last leg of the uptrend in base metals.

Zinc.  From the beginning of where Trump was elected we saw a dramatic change in US$ expectations.  This put a lot of upside price pressure on many commodities around the world, Zinc especially.  He believes the US$ will not continue to weaken in a big way from where it is today.  He would not chase base metals here.  We are in the last leg of the uptrend in base metals.

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General Market Comment 

January 15, 2018

Educational Segment.  US$ exposure in your portfolio.  There is a perfect storm brewing: What the BOC will do, NAFTA, oil prices.  There is Canadian dollar risk.  He is fully exposed to the US$ at $0.80.  There is an 85% change they will raise rates in Canada on Wednesday.  The NAFTA agreement will allow Trump to cause a lot of problems without ripping it up.  He will use this against Mexico because he wants his wall.  There is a housing risk in Canada with the new rules combining with higher interest rates.  The Canadian dollar should be weaker rather than stronger.  Oil prices are being driven by the weaker US$.  He thinks they will pull back into the mid-$50s.  Go unhedged in ETFs for the next 6 months.

Educational Segment.  US$ exposure in your portfolio.  There is a perfect storm brewing: What the BOC will do, NAFTA, oil prices.  There is Canadian dollar risk.  He is fully exposed to the US$ at $0.80.  There is an 85% change they will raise rates in Canada on Wednesday.  The NAFTA agreement will allow Trump to cause a lot of problems without ripping it up.  He will use this against Mexico because he wants his wall.  There is a housing risk in Canada with the new rules combining with higher interest rates.  The Canadian dollar should be weaker rather than stronger.  Oil prices are being driven by the weaker US$.  He thinks they will pull back into the mid-$50s.  Go unhedged in ETFs for the next 6 months.

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COMMENT
Extendicare Inc(EXE-T) 

January 15, 2018

There is only coverage from a couple of firms.  He is not sure what caused the August drop.  (Analysts’ target: $9.67).

other services

There is only coverage from a couple of firms.  He is not sure what caused the August drop.  (Analysts’ target: $9.67).

other services
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BUY
Horizons S&P 500(HXS-T) 

January 15, 2018

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s
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BUY

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s
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DON'T BUY
Martinrea(MRE-T) 

January 15, 2018

It has taken off pretty significantly in the last number of months.  Looking at the 10 year picture, it has broken out here.  It would be bad news if it dropped back into the range it broke out of.  It has to stay above $14 and then there will be room to the upside.  This could waver a bit based on what happens with NAFTA.

metal fabricators

It has taken off pretty significantly in the last number of months.  Looking at the 10 year picture, it has broken out here.  It would be bad news if it dropped back into the range it broke out of.  It has to stay above $14 and then there will be room to the upside.  This could waver a bit based on what happens with NAFTA.

metal fabricators
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DON'T BUY

VNQ-N in the US is a read on the index in the US.  It has been in a pretty reliable trading range for a year or so but we broke out of it.  Then look at ZRE-T and it is a different picture.  There is much more risk in the Canadian REITs here.  Even with a dovish rate increase he does not think you want to buy it here.  You need a more significant dip here to buy it.  He prefers below $19.

E.T.F.'s

VNQ-N in the US is a read on the index in the US.  It has been in a pretty reliable trading range for a year or so but we broke out of it.  Then look at ZRE-T and it is a different picture.  There is much more risk in the Canadian REITs here.  Even with a dovish rate increase he does not think you want to buy it here.  You need a more significant dip here to buy it.  He prefers below $19.

E.T.F.'s
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WAIT

It is a great holding for Canadians to get telcos and pipelines.  30% is in US utilities.  The CAD$ has rallied 2-3% and utilities in the US have been getting beaten up.  That caused the last swing down in the price.  This should stabilize if there is a dovish rate hike in Canada this week.  After Wednesday’s BOC meeting it would be a good time to buy if they do a ‘raise and done for a year.’

E.T.F.'s

It is a great holding for Canadians to get telcos and pipelines.  30% is in US utilities.  The CAD$ has rallied 2-3% and utilities in the US have been getting beaten up.  That caused the last swing down in the price.  This should stabilize if there is a dovish rate hike in Canada this week.  After Wednesday’s BOC meeting it would be a good time to buy if they do a ‘raise and done for a year.’

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Market.  There might be trouble in the Whitehouse as we learn with the book just released.  It is a 25th amendment type of work, meaning impeachment.  The market could go considerably higher still over the next two years despite geopolitical challenges.  The market will ‘melt up’ in a fear of missing returns.  This is usually the last phase blow off of the market.  It looks like Canada is moving toward raising rates.  He thought they would wait for the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations.  They probably don’t want a stronger Canadian dollar, but it could be the right decision if inflation is picking up.  Oil above $61 could last.  The Canadian energy sector is probably going to lag the US.

Market.  There might be trouble in the Whitehouse as we learn with the book just released.  It is a 25th amendment type of work, meaning impeachment.  The market could go considerably higher still over the next two years despite geopolitical challenges.  The market will ‘melt up’ in a fear of missing returns.  This is usually the last phase blow off of the market.  It looks like Canada is moving toward raising rates.  He thought they would wait for the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations.  They probably don’t want a stronger Canadian dollar, but it could be the right decision if inflation is picking up.  Oil above $61 could last.  The Canadian energy sector is probably going to lag the US.

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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Marijuana or Tech ETF Recommendation.  HMMJ-T is the Marijuana ETF but don’t buy it here.  The sector is tremendously overvalued.  You would have to trade it with pretty tight stops.  For Tech, it includes Bitcoin and so on which are very volatile.  This is not the best time to put money to work in Tech.  IYW-N is a way to play the tech sector but look to buy it 10% lower.

Marijuana or Tech ETF Recommendation.  HMMJ-T is the Marijuana ETF but don’t buy it here.  The sector is tremendously overvalued.  You would have to trade it with pretty tight stops.  For Tech, it includes Bitcoin and so on which are very volatile.  This is not the best time to put money to work in Tech.  IYW-N is a way to play the tech sector but look to buy it 10% lower.

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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

India ETF in Toronto.  XID-T and ZID-T are the two was to play it in Canada.  You need to be aware that the XID-T holds the INDA-N ETF and so there could be some double taxation.  He does not own India right now but in the next 6 months we will get a chance to jump into India.

India ETF in Toronto.  XID-T and ZID-T are the two was to play it in Canada.  You need to be aware that the XID-T holds the INDA-N ETF and so there could be some double taxation.  He does not own India right now but in the next 6 months we will get a chance to jump into India.

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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Educational Segment.  The ‘Melt Up’.  We are probably in the past phase of the market cycle and the market will probably ‘melt up’.  The final phase of the acceleration up before a bubble takes 3 to 3.5 years to play out and you get a proportional decline.  The start of this melt up was the election of Trump.  The S&P within 9 months to two years will peak out in 3400 – 3700 range and will end the ‘melt up’.  The change from previous market cycles is the amount of money in ETFs which affects advance decline lines.  He thinks caution prevails rather than chasing the market higher.

Educational Segment.  The ‘Melt Up’.  We are probably in the past phase of the market cycle and the market will probably ‘melt up’.  The final phase of the acceleration up before a bubble takes 3 to 3.5 years to play out and you get a proportional decline.  The start of this melt up was the election of Trump.  The S&P within 9 months to two years will peak out in 3400 – 3700 range and will end the ‘melt up’.  The change from previous market cycles is the amount of money in ETFs which affects advance decline lines.  He thinks caution prevails rather than chasing the market higher.

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WATCH
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

January 8, 2018

It depends on whether we ‘melt up’ or not.  It seems there is a general consensus that it will be a decent year.  You could buy this on a pull back to trend support or breakout.  He is short a little on the banks.  He would look to cover it on a pull back.

banks

It depends on whether we ‘melt up’ or not.  It seems there is a general consensus that it will be a decent year.  You could buy this on a pull back to trend support or breakout.  He is short a little on the banks.  He would look to cover it on a pull back.

banks
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WEAK BUY

A fixed income strategy.  It is an active strategy.  It is low cost and exposure to global fixed income markets.  You are seeing late cycle inflation pressures so you want to be cautious on the bond market.  He prefers short term corporate bonds.  He also like real return bonds ZRR, XRB, for example.

E.T.F.'s

A fixed income strategy.  It is an active strategy.  It is low cost and exposure to global fixed income markets.  You are seeing late cycle inflation pressures so you want to be cautious on the bond market.  He prefers short term corporate bonds.  He also like real return bonds ZRR, XRB, for example.

E.T.F.'s
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Power Share QQQQ ETF(QQQ-Q) 

January 8, 2018

You can’t really see the next major support, but it could be $145 and so there might be a pull back to there, if you are looking for a place to step in.

E.T.F.'s

You can’t really see the next major support, but it could be $145 and so there might be a pull back to there, if you are looking for a place to step in.

E.T.F.'s
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PARTIAL SELL
Russel Metals(RUS-T) 

January 8, 2018

Not a stock he has looked at in a long while.  It looks like it had a pretty decent rally.  It has not done much in 10 years, however.  He would look to lighten up and maybe buy it back if it gets to the lows.  It is an underperformer.

steel

Not a stock he has looked at in a long while.  It looks like it had a pretty decent rally.  It has not done much in 10 years, however.  He would look to lighten up and maybe buy it back if it gets to the lows.  It is an underperformer.

steel
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PARTIAL SELL
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

January 8, 2018

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

integrated oils

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

integrated oils
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WATCH

Rate Reset Preferreds.  With higher interest rates you will get high rates as they reset.  He will step in after the next correction.

E.T.F.'s

Rate Reset Preferreds.  With higher interest rates you will get high rates as they reset.  He will step in after the next correction.

E.T.F.'s
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PARTIAL SELL

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

E.T.F.'s

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

Market.  They slipped some things into the US tax reform package at the last minute.  Capping salt (state and local property tax and mortgage deductions) will impact markets like California.  Most of the tax cost of the package is going to benefit corporations and the top 20% of earners.  Over 10 years he understands they will pay more tax under $75k of income.  It looks terrific now if you look at the numbers, however.  Corporations won’t build more plant and equipment if they don’t see demand going up.  He thinks people won’t get paid more. 

Market.  They slipped some things into the US tax reform package at the last minute.  Capping salt (state and local property tax and mortgage deductions) will impact markets like California.  Most of the tax cost of the package is going to benefit corporations and the top 20% of earners.  Over 10 years he understands they will pay more tax under $75k of income.  It looks terrific now if you look at the numbers, however.  Corporations won’t build more plant and equipment if they don’t see demand going up.  He thinks people won’t get paid more. 

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BUY on WEAKNESS
General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

India ETFs.  There are two he really likes.  They trade in US$ so you have the currency risks.  SCIF-N is a small ca play on India.  This in where a lot of growth will be.  INDA-N is another one he likes.  Because of the time zone, there are liquidity problems resulting in wide spreads.  He is looking to add on pull backs.

India ETFs.  There are two he really likes.  They trade in US$ so you have the currency risks.  SCIF-N is a small ca play on India.  This in where a lot of growth will be.  INDA-N is another one he likes.  Because of the time zone, there are liquidity problems resulting in wide spreads.  He is looking to add on pull backs.

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BUY on WEAKNESS
General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

Gold stocks.  It has been selling off recently.  He backed up the truck in exposure to gold in the last dip.  He can’t see it getting out of the trading range we have been in over the last couple of years: $1200-$1380.  ZGD-T is the one he was buying.  ZJG-T is junior golds.  He has been buying on the weakness.

Gold stocks.  It has been selling off recently.  He backed up the truck in exposure to gold in the last dip.  He can’t see it getting out of the trading range we have been in over the last couple of years: $1200-$1380.  ZGD-T is the one he was buying.  ZJG-T is junior golds.  He has been buying on the weakness.

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General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

Educational Segment.  Forecasts for 2018.  Looking back on 2017, he was looking for a disappointment, but the market has not been.  He has been running portfolios very defensively.  His global dividend strategy is almost 9%, which is not bad.  He focuses on better risk adjusted returns.  Should we step on the gas now with the US tax bill.  No, 8 years into a bull market he will remain defensive.  In the last couple of months we saw a dramatic downturn in the western Canadian select oil compared to WTI.  Pipelines are not getting enough oil down to the US, so all of a sudden we can’t get enough our landlocked oil to Asia, due to a lack of east/west pipelines.  Canada should underperform next year.  The housing market and rising interest rates will start to cool, which was the biggest contributor to GDP.  He does not think we get a recession next year.  2775 is his target for the S&P, a 4 to 6% return, and less for Canada.  You should focus on dividend strategies for next year.  He expects a 5-10% pull back next year.  We are in for some bumpier markets in the next couple of years.

Educational Segment.  Forecasts for 2018.  Looking back on 2017, he was looking for a disappointment, but the market has not been.  He has been running portfolios very defensively.  His global dividend strategy is almost 9%, which is not bad.  He focuses on better risk adjusted returns.  Should we step on the gas now with the US tax bill.  No, 8 years into a bull market he will remain defensive.  In the last couple of months we saw a dramatic downturn in the western Canadian select oil compared to WTI.  Pipelines are not getting enough oil down to the US, so all of a sudden we can’t get enough our landlocked oil to Asia, due to a lack of east/west pipelines.  Canada should underperform next year.  The housing market and rising interest rates will start to cool, which was the biggest contributor to GDP.  He does not think we get a recession next year.  2775 is his target for the S&P, a 4 to 6% return, and less for Canada.  You should focus on dividend strategies for next year.  He expects a 5-10% pull back next year.  We are in for some bumpier markets in the next couple of years.

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Barrick Gold(ABX-T) 

December 18, 2017

He likes gold and has been buying it but he buys it through ETFs like ZGD-T.  He is playing for a rally where ABX-T gets to $22, 15% upside.  He would sell at that point.

precious metals

He likes gold and has been buying it but he buys it through ETFs like ZGD-T.  He is playing for a rally where ABX-T gets to $22, 15% upside.  He would sell at that point.

precious metals
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WATCH
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

December 18, 2017

It is not his favourite but he has no issue with it.  He is more of an ETF buyer.  It is extremely overbought.  The yield curve is flattening dramatically so the net interest margin is not going to be there for the banks.  Toward the end of next year there is more market risk potential also.  There is too much risk to step in at this level.

banks

It is not his favourite but he has no issue with it.  He is more of an ETF buyer.  It is extremely overbought.  The yield curve is flattening dramatically so the net interest margin is not going to be there for the banks.  Toward the end of next year there is more market risk potential also.  There is too much risk to step in at this level.

banks
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DON'T BUY
Canadian Natural Rsrcs(CNQ-T) 

December 18, 2017

Canada’s energy sector is going to underperform the US.  Most of what they do is oil and gas extraction: heavy oil from the oil sands.  He is surprised valuation is holding up this much.  He sees more downside risk than upside potential.  You might be a dip buyer but it is not attractive at this point.

oil/gas

Canada’s energy sector is going to underperform the US.  Most of what they do is oil and gas extraction: heavy oil from the oil sands.  He is surprised valuation is holding up this much.  He sees more downside risk than upside potential.  You might be a dip buyer but it is not attractive at this point.

oil/gas
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BUY

Largely international healthcare companies with an option strategy overlaying it.  It is an active strategy.  It is a nice combination for exposure to the healthcare sector.  It will be a good yielder but not a big grower.

E.T.F.'s

Largely international healthcare companies with an option strategy overlaying it.  It is an active strategy.  It is a nice combination for exposure to the healthcare sector.  It will be a good yielder but not a big grower.

E.T.F.'s
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HOLD

In a covered call strategy there are two factors for the distribution: Distribution of equities the ETF holds and premiums from the covered calls.  There were no cuts in the stocks’ dividends but volatility shrunk so much this year that the premium from the covered call overlay is coming down and that is what brought the ETF’s distribution down.  Don’t worry about it.  We will see volatility pick up in the future.

E.T.F.'s

In a covered call strategy there are two factors for the distribution: Distribution of equities the ETF holds and premiums from the covered calls.  There were no cuts in the stocks’ dividends but volatility shrunk so much this year that the premium from the covered call overlay is coming down and that is what brought the ETF’s distribution down.  Don’t worry about it.  We will see volatility pick up in the future.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$13.935
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Unknown

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General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Market.  Bitcoin futures.  The initial expectations were that you would see bears start to raid it and sell it aggressively.  In fact it seemed to go the other way.  When you look at the volume of a futures contract, we don’t know the amount of open interest.  It may be the same people trading them back and forth and back and forth.  He would wait to see the liquidity and the depth of the market before stepping into it.  Larry prefers Gold to Bitcoin as Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. 

He thinks there is a good chance Trump will break NAFTA.

Market.  Bitcoin futures.  The initial expectations were that you would see bears start to raid it and sell it aggressively.  In fact it seemed to go the other way.  When you look at the volume of a futures contract, we don’t know the amount of open interest.  It may be the same people trading them back and forth and back and forth.  He would wait to see the liquidity and the depth of the market before stepping into it.  Larry prefers Gold to Bitcoin as Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. 

He thinks there is a good chance Trump will break NAFTA.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
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_N/A

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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 5:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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