Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
2487
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com

2487
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


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General Market Comment 

January 15, 2018

Market.  Into 2018 the expectation for earnings growth is very high.  It looks like the markets could creep higher but we could start to see more volatility in them.  You have to be cautious on the market.  Analysts can tend to be overly optimistic on companies they follow.  A weaker US$ which we continue to see is good for corporate US earnings.  Gold is a range trade for a number of years.  He thinks we may get a bit of a breakout to the upside.  He has been adding gold positions on weakness.  A new survey on the ability of Canadians to service indebtedness may cause the BOC to be a bit dovish this week and to hold off on more increases for a year.

Market.  Into 2018 the expectation for earnings growth is very high.  It looks like the markets could creep higher but we could start to see more volatility in them.  You have to be cautious on the market.  Analysts can tend to be overly optimistic on companies they follow.  A weaker US$ which we continue to see is good for corporate US earnings.  Gold is a range trade for a number of years.  He thinks we may get a bit of a breakout to the upside.  He has been adding gold positions on weakness.  A new survey on the ability of Canadians to service indebtedness may cause the BOC to be a bit dovish this week and to hold off on more increases for a year.

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General Market Comment 

January 15, 2018

Zinc.  From the beginning of where Trump was elected we saw a dramatic change in US$ expectations.  This put a lot of upside price pressure on many commodities around the world, Zinc especially.  He believes the US$ will not continue to weaken in a big way from where it is today.  He would not chase base metals here.  We are in the last leg of the uptrend in base metals.

Zinc.  From the beginning of where Trump was elected we saw a dramatic change in US$ expectations.  This put a lot of upside price pressure on many commodities around the world, Zinc especially.  He believes the US$ will not continue to weaken in a big way from where it is today.  He would not chase base metals here.  We are in the last leg of the uptrend in base metals.

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General Market Comment 

January 15, 2018

Educational Segment.  US$ exposure in your portfolio.  There is a perfect storm brewing: What the BOC will do, NAFTA, oil prices.  There is Canadian dollar risk.  He is fully exposed to the US$ at $0.80.  There is an 85% change they will raise rates in Canada on Wednesday.  The NAFTA agreement will allow Trump to cause a lot of problems without ripping it up.  He will use this against Mexico because he wants his wall.  There is a housing risk in Canada with the new rules combining with higher interest rates.  The Canadian dollar should be weaker rather than stronger.  Oil prices are being driven by the weaker US$.  He thinks they will pull back into the mid-$50s.  Go unhedged in ETFs for the next 6 months.

Educational Segment.  US$ exposure in your portfolio.  There is a perfect storm brewing: What the BOC will do, NAFTA, oil prices.  There is Canadian dollar risk.  He is fully exposed to the US$ at $0.80.  There is an 85% change they will raise rates in Canada on Wednesday.  The NAFTA agreement will allow Trump to cause a lot of problems without ripping it up.  He will use this against Mexico because he wants his wall.  There is a housing risk in Canada with the new rules combining with higher interest rates.  The Canadian dollar should be weaker rather than stronger.  Oil prices are being driven by the weaker US$.  He thinks they will pull back into the mid-$50s.  Go unhedged in ETFs for the next 6 months.

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COMMENT
Extendicare Inc(EXE-T) 

January 15, 2018

There is only coverage from a couple of firms.  He is not sure what caused the August drop.  (Analysts’ target: $9.67).

other services

There is only coverage from a couple of firms.  He is not sure what caused the August drop.  (Analysts’ target: $9.67).

other services
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BUY
Horizons S&P 500(HXS-T) 

January 15, 2018

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s
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BUY

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s

HXS-T and HXT-T in a non-registered account.  He likes this strategy based on a total return swap.  You only pay capital gains tax.  There is no distribution.  If you believe the markets will go higher for a number of years these are great instruments.  A buy and hold for many years.

E.T.F.'s
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DON'T BUY
Martinrea(MRE-T) 

January 15, 2018

It has taken off pretty significantly in the last number of months.  Looking at the 10 year picture, it has broken out here.  It would be bad news if it dropped back into the range it broke out of.  It has to stay above $14 and then there will be room to the upside.  This could waver a bit based on what happens with NAFTA.

metal fabricators

It has taken off pretty significantly in the last number of months.  Looking at the 10 year picture, it has broken out here.  It would be bad news if it dropped back into the range it broke out of.  It has to stay above $14 and then there will be room to the upside.  This could waver a bit based on what happens with NAFTA.

metal fabricators
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DON'T BUY

VNQ-N in the US is a read on the index in the US.  It has been in a pretty reliable trading range for a year or so but we broke out of it.  Then look at ZRE-T and it is a different picture.  There is much more risk in the Canadian REITs here.  Even with a dovish rate increase he does not think you want to buy it here.  You need a more significant dip here to buy it.  He prefers below $19.

E.T.F.'s

VNQ-N in the US is a read on the index in the US.  It has been in a pretty reliable trading range for a year or so but we broke out of it.  Then look at ZRE-T and it is a different picture.  There is much more risk in the Canadian REITs here.  Even with a dovish rate increase he does not think you want to buy it here.  You need a more significant dip here to buy it.  He prefers below $19.

E.T.F.'s
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WAIT

It is a great holding for Canadians to get telcos and pipelines.  30% is in US utilities.  The CAD$ has rallied 2-3% and utilities in the US have been getting beaten up.  That caused the last swing down in the price.  This should stabilize if there is a dovish rate hike in Canada this week.  After Wednesday’s BOC meeting it would be a good time to buy if they do a ‘raise and done for a year.’

E.T.F.'s

It is a great holding for Canadians to get telcos and pipelines.  30% is in US utilities.  The CAD$ has rallied 2-3% and utilities in the US have been getting beaten up.  That caused the last swing down in the price.  This should stabilize if there is a dovish rate hike in Canada this week.  After Wednesday’s BOC meeting it would be a good time to buy if they do a ‘raise and done for a year.’

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Market.  There might be trouble in the Whitehouse as we learn with the book just released.  It is a 25th amendment type of work, meaning impeachment.  The market could go considerably higher still over the next two years despite geopolitical challenges.  The market will ‘melt up’ in a fear of missing returns.  This is usually the last phase blow off of the market.  It looks like Canada is moving toward raising rates.  He thought they would wait for the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations.  They probably don’t want a stronger Canadian dollar, but it could be the right decision if inflation is picking up.  Oil above $61 could last.  The Canadian energy sector is probably going to lag the US.

Market.  There might be trouble in the Whitehouse as we learn with the book just released.  It is a 25th amendment type of work, meaning impeachment.  The market could go considerably higher still over the next two years despite geopolitical challenges.  The market will ‘melt up’ in a fear of missing returns.  This is usually the last phase blow off of the market.  It looks like Canada is moving toward raising rates.  He thought they would wait for the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations.  They probably don’t want a stronger Canadian dollar, but it could be the right decision if inflation is picking up.  Oil above $61 could last.  The Canadian energy sector is probably going to lag the US.

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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Marijuana or Tech ETF Recommendation.  HMMJ-T is the Marijuana ETF but don’t buy it here.  The sector is tremendously overvalued.  You would have to trade it with pretty tight stops.  For Tech, it includes Bitcoin and so on which are very volatile.  This is not the best time to put money to work in Tech.  IYW-N is a way to play the tech sector but look to buy it 10% lower.

Marijuana or Tech ETF Recommendation.  HMMJ-T is the Marijuana ETF but don’t buy it here.  The sector is tremendously overvalued.  You would have to trade it with pretty tight stops.  For Tech, it includes Bitcoin and so on which are very volatile.  This is not the best time to put money to work in Tech.  IYW-N is a way to play the tech sector but look to buy it 10% lower.

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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

India ETF in Toronto.  XID-T and ZID-T are the two was to play it in Canada.  You need to be aware that the XID-T holds the INDA-N ETF and so there could be some double taxation.  He does not own India right now but in the next 6 months we will get a chance to jump into India.

India ETF in Toronto.  XID-T and ZID-T are the two was to play it in Canada.  You need to be aware that the XID-T holds the INDA-N ETF and so there could be some double taxation.  He does not own India right now but in the next 6 months we will get a chance to jump into India.

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General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Educational Segment.  The ‘Melt Up’.  We are probably in the past phase of the market cycle and the market will probably ‘melt up’.  The final phase of the acceleration up before a bubble takes 3 to 3.5 years to play out and you get a proportional decline.  The start of this melt up was the election of Trump.  The S&P within 9 months to two years will peak out in 3400 – 3700 range and will end the ‘melt up’.  The change from previous market cycles is the amount of money in ETFs which affects advance decline lines.  He thinks caution prevails rather than chasing the market higher.

Educational Segment.  The ‘Melt Up’.  We are probably in the past phase of the market cycle and the market will probably ‘melt up’.  The final phase of the acceleration up before a bubble takes 3 to 3.5 years to play out and you get a proportional decline.  The start of this melt up was the election of Trump.  The S&P within 9 months to two years will peak out in 3400 – 3700 range and will end the ‘melt up’.  The change from previous market cycles is the amount of money in ETFs which affects advance decline lines.  He thinks caution prevails rather than chasing the market higher.

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WATCH
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

January 8, 2018

It depends on whether we ‘melt up’ or not.  It seems there is a general consensus that it will be a decent year.  You could buy this on a pull back to trend support or breakout.  He is short a little on the banks.  He would look to cover it on a pull back.

banks

It depends on whether we ‘melt up’ or not.  It seems there is a general consensus that it will be a decent year.  You could buy this on a pull back to trend support or breakout.  He is short a little on the banks.  He would look to cover it on a pull back.

banks
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WEAK BUY

A fixed income strategy.  It is an active strategy.  It is low cost and exposure to global fixed income markets.  You are seeing late cycle inflation pressures so you want to be cautious on the bond market.  He prefers short term corporate bonds.  He also like real return bonds ZRR, XRB, for example.

E.T.F.'s

A fixed income strategy.  It is an active strategy.  It is low cost and exposure to global fixed income markets.  You are seeing late cycle inflation pressures so you want to be cautious on the bond market.  He prefers short term corporate bonds.  He also like real return bonds ZRR, XRB, for example.

E.T.F.'s
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Power Share QQQQ ETF(QQQ-Q) 

January 8, 2018

You can’t really see the next major support, but it could be $145 and so there might be a pull back to there, if you are looking for a place to step in.

E.T.F.'s

You can’t really see the next major support, but it could be $145 and so there might be a pull back to there, if you are looking for a place to step in.

E.T.F.'s
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PARTIAL SELL
Russel Metals(RUS-T) 

January 8, 2018

Not a stock he has looked at in a long while.  It looks like it had a pretty decent rally.  It has not done much in 10 years, however.  He would look to lighten up and maybe buy it back if it gets to the lows.  It is an underperformer.

steel

Not a stock he has looked at in a long while.  It looks like it had a pretty decent rally.  It has not done much in 10 years, however.  He would look to lighten up and maybe buy it back if it gets to the lows.  It is an underperformer.

steel
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PARTIAL SELL
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

January 8, 2018

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

integrated oils

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

integrated oils
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WATCH

Rate Reset Preferreds.  With higher interest rates you will get high rates as they reset.  He will step in after the next correction.

E.T.F.'s

Rate Reset Preferreds.  With higher interest rates you will get high rates as they reset.  He will step in after the next correction.

E.T.F.'s
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PARTIAL SELL

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

E.T.F.'s

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell.  There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term.  ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it.  He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance.  He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer.  SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays.  He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower.  He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

Market.  They slipped some things into the US tax reform package at the last minute.  Capping salt (state and local property tax and mortgage deductions) will impact markets like California.  Most of the tax cost of the package is going to benefit corporations and the top 20% of earners.  Over 10 years he understands they will pay more tax under $75k of income.  It looks terrific now if you look at the numbers, however.  Corporations won’t build more plant and equipment if they don’t see demand going up.  He thinks people won’t get paid more. 

Market.  They slipped some things into the US tax reform package at the last minute.  Capping salt (state and local property tax and mortgage deductions) will impact markets like California.  Most of the tax cost of the package is going to benefit corporations and the top 20% of earners.  Over 10 years he understands they will pay more tax under $75k of income.  It looks terrific now if you look at the numbers, however.  Corporations won’t build more plant and equipment if they don’t see demand going up.  He thinks people won’t get paid more. 

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BUY on WEAKNESS
General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

India ETFs.  There are two he really likes.  They trade in US$ so you have the currency risks.  SCIF-N is a small ca play on India.  This in where a lot of growth will be.  INDA-N is another one he likes.  Because of the time zone, there are liquidity problems resulting in wide spreads.  He is looking to add on pull backs.

India ETFs.  There are two he really likes.  They trade in US$ so you have the currency risks.  SCIF-N is a small ca play on India.  This in where a lot of growth will be.  INDA-N is another one he likes.  Because of the time zone, there are liquidity problems resulting in wide spreads.  He is looking to add on pull backs.

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BUY on WEAKNESS
General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

Gold stocks.  It has been selling off recently.  He backed up the truck in exposure to gold in the last dip.  He can’t see it getting out of the trading range we have been in over the last couple of years: $1200-$1380.  ZGD-T is the one he was buying.  ZJG-T is junior golds.  He has been buying on the weakness.

Gold stocks.  It has been selling off recently.  He backed up the truck in exposure to gold in the last dip.  He can’t see it getting out of the trading range we have been in over the last couple of years: $1200-$1380.  ZGD-T is the one he was buying.  ZJG-T is junior golds.  He has been buying on the weakness.

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General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

Educational Segment.  Forecasts for 2018.  Looking back on 2017, he was looking for a disappointment, but the market has not been.  He has been running portfolios very defensively.  His global dividend strategy is almost 9%, which is not bad.  He focuses on better risk adjusted returns.  Should we step on the gas now with the US tax bill.  No, 8 years into a bull market he will remain defensive.  In the last couple of months we saw a dramatic downturn in the western Canadian select oil compared to WTI.  Pipelines are not getting enough oil down to the US, so all of a sudden we can’t get enough our landlocked oil to Asia, due to a lack of east/west pipelines.  Canada should underperform next year.  The housing market and rising interest rates will start to cool, which was the biggest contributor to GDP.  He does not think we get a recession next year.  2775 is his target for the S&P, a 4 to 6% return, and less for Canada.  You should focus on dividend strategies for next year.  He expects a 5-10% pull back next year.  We are in for some bumpier markets in the next couple of years.

Educational Segment.  Forecasts for 2018.  Looking back on 2017, he was looking for a disappointment, but the market has not been.  He has been running portfolios very defensively.  His global dividend strategy is almost 9%, which is not bad.  He focuses on better risk adjusted returns.  Should we step on the gas now with the US tax bill.  No, 8 years into a bull market he will remain defensive.  In the last couple of months we saw a dramatic downturn in the western Canadian select oil compared to WTI.  Pipelines are not getting enough oil down to the US, so all of a sudden we can’t get enough our landlocked oil to Asia, due to a lack of east/west pipelines.  Canada should underperform next year.  The housing market and rising interest rates will start to cool, which was the biggest contributor to GDP.  He does not think we get a recession next year.  2775 is his target for the S&P, a 4 to 6% return, and less for Canada.  You should focus on dividend strategies for next year.  He expects a 5-10% pull back next year.  We are in for some bumpier markets in the next couple of years.

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Barrick Gold(ABX-T) 

December 18, 2017

He likes gold and has been buying it but he buys it through ETFs like ZGD-T.  He is playing for a rally where ABX-T gets to $22, 15% upside.  He would sell at that point.

precious metals

He likes gold and has been buying it but he buys it through ETFs like ZGD-T.  He is playing for a rally where ABX-T gets to $22, 15% upside.  He would sell at that point.

precious metals
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WATCH
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

December 18, 2017

It is not his favourite but he has no issue with it.  He is more of an ETF buyer.  It is extremely overbought.  The yield curve is flattening dramatically so the net interest margin is not going to be there for the banks.  Toward the end of next year there is more market risk potential also.  There is too much risk to step in at this level.

banks

It is not his favourite but he has no issue with it.  He is more of an ETF buyer.  It is extremely overbought.  The yield curve is flattening dramatically so the net interest margin is not going to be there for the banks.  Toward the end of next year there is more market risk potential also.  There is too much risk to step in at this level.

banks
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DON'T BUY
Canadian Natural Rsrcs(CNQ-T) 

December 18, 2017

Canada’s energy sector is going to underperform the US.  Most of what they do is oil and gas extraction: heavy oil from the oil sands.  He is surprised valuation is holding up this much.  He sees more downside risk than upside potential.  You might be a dip buyer but it is not attractive at this point.

oil/gas

Canada’s energy sector is going to underperform the US.  Most of what they do is oil and gas extraction: heavy oil from the oil sands.  He is surprised valuation is holding up this much.  He sees more downside risk than upside potential.  You might be a dip buyer but it is not attractive at this point.

oil/gas
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BUY

Largely international healthcare companies with an option strategy overlaying it.  It is an active strategy.  It is a nice combination for exposure to the healthcare sector.  It will be a good yielder but not a big grower.

E.T.F.'s

Largely international healthcare companies with an option strategy overlaying it.  It is an active strategy.  It is a nice combination for exposure to the healthcare sector.  It will be a good yielder but not a big grower.

E.T.F.'s
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HOLD

In a covered call strategy there are two factors for the distribution: Distribution of equities the ETF holds and premiums from the covered calls.  There were no cuts in the stocks’ dividends but volatility shrunk so much this year that the premium from the covered call overlay is coming down and that is what brought the ETF’s distribution down.  Don’t worry about it.  We will see volatility pick up in the future.

E.T.F.'s

In a covered call strategy there are two factors for the distribution: Distribution of equities the ETF holds and premiums from the covered calls.  There were no cuts in the stocks’ dividends but volatility shrunk so much this year that the premium from the covered call overlay is coming down and that is what brought the ETF’s distribution down.  Don’t worry about it.  We will see volatility pick up in the future.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Market.  Bitcoin futures.  The initial expectations were that you would see bears start to raid it and sell it aggressively.  In fact it seemed to go the other way.  When you look at the volume of a futures contract, we don’t know the amount of open interest.  It may be the same people trading them back and forth and back and forth.  He would wait to see the liquidity and the depth of the market before stepping into it.  Larry prefers Gold to Bitcoin as Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. 

He thinks there is a good chance Trump will break NAFTA.

Market.  Bitcoin futures.  The initial expectations were that you would see bears start to raid it and sell it aggressively.  In fact it seemed to go the other way.  When you look at the volume of a futures contract, we don’t know the amount of open interest.  It may be the same people trading them back and forth and back and forth.  He would wait to see the liquidity and the depth of the market before stepping into it.  Larry prefers Gold to Bitcoin as Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. 

He thinks there is a good chance Trump will break NAFTA.

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Bitcoin Options.  The underlying volatility is massive.  The puts and call premiums are going to be huge.  He does not believe there is an underlying derivatives market.  It is not a mature market.

Bitcoin Options.  The underlying volatility is massive.  The puts and call premiums are going to be huge.  He does not believe there is an underlying derivatives market.  It is not a mature market.

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BUY
General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Gold.  He is a value investor and has been nibbling away on gold.  Don’t make it all of your portfolio.  See his educational segment.

Gold.  He is a value investor and has been nibbling away on gold.  Don’t make it all of your portfolio.  See his educational segment.

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General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin vs. Gold.  Bitcoin was seen as possibly a gold disrupter.  The biggest cost of investing is the volatility in order to take the position.  Is Bitcoin appropriate?  He thinks it is a bubble that will break because it is worth nothing.  If you want to add it to your portfolio you have to understand if it will help you or hurt you.  Gold does not do the same thing as equities do.  It gives you a diversifying effect.  If you adjust it for risk and then compare to Bitcoin, there is a daily volatility to Bitcoin of 10% and so it is hard to add this to your portfolio and improve your chances of an increase to its return.  If you can stomach the ups and down, then maybe Bitcoin is appropriate for you.  He thinks Bitcoin is close to zero in value and it is just a bubble.  Block chain is a different story and has no relation to an investment in Bitcoin.  Don’t trade futures in Bitcoin because of the leverage.  Leave it to the professionals.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin vs. Gold.  Bitcoin was seen as possibly a gold disrupter.  The biggest cost of investing is the volatility in order to take the position.  Is Bitcoin appropriate?  He thinks it is a bubble that will break because it is worth nothing.  If you want to add it to your portfolio you have to understand if it will help you or hurt you.  Gold does not do the same thing as equities do.  It gives you a diversifying effect.  If you adjust it for risk and then compare to Bitcoin, there is a daily volatility to Bitcoin of 10% and so it is hard to add this to your portfolio and improve your chances of an increase to its return.  If you can stomach the ups and down, then maybe Bitcoin is appropriate for you.  He thinks Bitcoin is close to zero in value and it is just a bubble.  Block chain is a different story and has no relation to an investment in Bitcoin.  Don’t trade futures in Bitcoin because of the leverage.  Leave it to the professionals.

Unknown
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BUY on WEAKNESS
Alerian MLP ETF(AMLP-N) 

December 11, 2017

It is not unlike a REIT but for pipelines in the US.  They put it into this MLP structure.  It is a basket of pipeline stocks.  The revenue gets passed on to the shareholder.  It is not a Canadian dividend, however, so not taxed the same way.  He thinks you are in a trading range environment now.  He has been buying on weakness.

E.T.F.'s

It is not unlike a REIT but for pipelines in the US.  They put it into this MLP structure.  It is a basket of pipeline stocks.  The revenue gets passed on to the shareholder.  It is not a Canadian dividend, however, so not taxed the same way.  He thinks you are in a trading range environment now.  He has been buying on weakness.

E.T.F.'s
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BUY on WEAKNESS
Goldcorp Inc(G-T) 

December 11, 2017

They will do what the underlying commodity does.  It is a bit of an opportunity here.  It is starting to get a lot more interesting here.  It could fall another 10-15% if gold keeps going down.  He is nibbling way here, however.

precious metals

They will do what the underlying commodity does.  It is a bit of an opportunity here.  It is starting to get a lot more interesting here.  It could fall another 10-15% if gold keeps going down.  He is nibbling way here, however.

precious metals
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COMMENT
Microsoft(MSFT-Q) 

December 11, 2017

Buying back shares will be part of what to do with all that money.  He does not think that repatriating cash will cause a CEO to pay his employees more.  He does not think that repatriating capital will have the impact on the US economy that the government thinks it will.

computer software/processing

Buying back shares will be part of what to do with all that money.  He does not think that repatriating cash will cause a CEO to pay his employees more.  He does not think that repatriating capital will have the impact on the US economy that the government thinks it will.

computer software/processing
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HOLD

It contains some of the best quality companies in the US.  BMO write puts 15-20% below the market price.  They generate additional income from the puts.  Every month if the markets don’t fall to those prices, then they harvest the income on those puts.  BMO does not want to own the stocks so if necessary they buy the option and re-write the put.  He expects 6-7% from it.  If it is not working out the way you hoped, pricewise, then you have to ask if you can take the asset and put it somewhere else.  This ETF won’t grow in price.

E.T.F.'s

It contains some of the best quality companies in the US.  BMO write puts 15-20% below the market price.  They generate additional income from the puts.  Every month if the markets don’t fall to those prices, then they harvest the income on those puts.  BMO does not want to own the stocks so if necessary they buy the option and re-write the put.  He expects 6-7% from it.  If it is not working out the way you hoped, pricewise, then you have to ask if you can take the asset and put it somewhere else.  This ETF won’t grow in price.

E.T.F.'s
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COMMENT

The dividend paying stocks average about 4% in dividends.  The premium above that is coming from the covered call strategy and there is no return of capital in that model.  There are capital distributions from mergers and acquisitions only.  There is a high correlation to financials in Canada.  It is kind of like the weighting of the TSX.

E.T.F.'s

The dividend paying stocks average about 4% in dividends.  The premium above that is coming from the covered call strategy and there is no return of capital in that model.  There are capital distributions from mergers and acquisitions only.  There is a high correlation to financials in Canada.  It is kind of like the weighting of the TSX.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

Market.  The risk of uncertainty in the white house is going to matter at some point.  What matters now is the tax bill.  We are getting the follow through pop today in the markets.  We expect the president to sign the tax bill in by Christmas and then we get a sell-the-news effect.  There is an awful lot of good news priced into the market.

Market.  The risk of uncertainty in the white house is going to matter at some point.  What matters now is the tax bill.  We are getting the follow through pop today in the markets.  We expect the president to sign the tax bill in by Christmas and then we get a sell-the-news effect.  There is an awful lot of good news priced into the market.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

ETF Return of Capital.  There are two types:  (1) they need to pay out a dividend on funds that recently came into the fund, so all unit holders get the same distribution.  This is a good return of capital.  (2) The underlying assets may pay a lower dividend than the ETF does, so they pay you back some of the capital gain.  This is not a good return of capital.

ETF Return of Capital.  There are two types:  (1) they need to pay out a dividend on funds that recently came into the fund, so all unit holders get the same distribution.  This is a good return of capital.  (2) The underlying assets may pay a lower dividend than the ETF does, so they pay you back some of the capital gain.  This is not a good return of capital.

Unknown
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WATCH
General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

Robotics ETFs.  ROBO-N & BOTZ-N.  These play the companies that build robots and create the artificial intelligence.  In Canada we have MIND-T which is artificial intelligence for stock selection.  He would wait for the markets to shake out in a bear market before getting in.

Robotics ETFs.  ROBO-N & BOTZ-N.  These play the companies that build robots and create the artificial intelligence.  In Canada we have MIND-T which is artificial intelligence for stock selection.  He would wait for the markets to shake out in a bear market before getting in.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

US Dollar investments.  SHV-N is a money market fund for storing US$ in. 

US Dollar investments.  SHV-N is a money market fund for storing US$ in. 

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

OIL ETFs.  His most aggressive strategy is a long short strategy.  He is net short crude oil via a US ETF.  He is long the Equity side.  He likes US pipelines is the US.

OIL ETFs.  His most aggressive strategy is a long short strategy.  He is net short crude oil via a US ETF.  He is long the Equity side.  He likes US pipelines is the US.

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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

Educational Segment.  Are all the benefits of a tax reform package in the US priced into the US market?  He does not think this tax bill will help the people who voted for Trump.  After the 10 years are up, the top 1 and 0.1% income earners will get the benefits of this package.  The rest get almost nothing.  Trailing earnings and expected earnings for the S&P will increase 20% and 10% per year in earnings growth after the package.  There is a lot of good news priced into the market today.  There will be a sell-the-news effect when it is signed.  See his blog entry for today.

Educational Segment.  Are all the benefits of a tax reform package in the US priced into the US market?  He does not think this tax bill will help the people who voted for Trump.  After the 10 years are up, the top 1 and 0.1% income earners will get the benefits of this package.  The rest get almost nothing.  Trailing earnings and expected earnings for the S&P will increase 20% and 10% per year in earnings growth after the package.  There is a lot of good news priced into the market today.  There will be a sell-the-news effect when it is signed.  See his blog entry for today.

Unknown
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DON'T BUY

It has been the dramatically underperforming bank of the big six.  Have they really changed?  Is their step into the US too late?  He suggests you look at fundamental research.  If you look at the highs of last April he wonders how much more upside there is on this one than that.  He is underweight Canadian banks.  He would not chase it higher.

banks

It has been the dramatically underperforming bank of the big six.  Have they really changed?  Is their step into the US too late?  He suggests you look at fundamental research.  If you look at the highs of last April he wonders how much more upside there is on this one than that.  He is underweight Canadian banks.  He would not chase it higher.

banks
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DON'T BUY
Global X Uranium ETF(URA-N) 

December 4, 2017

It holds uranium producing companies and has some exposure to the Uranium price.  Technically you would look at the highs from earlier this year.  This might be a similar move.  The most recent low before the breakout is probably the support level.  He’d want to see more upside potential relative to the downside to support, so would not recommend it.

Financial Services

It holds uranium producing companies and has some exposure to the Uranium price.  Technically you would look at the highs from earlier this year.  This might be a similar move.  The most recent low before the breakout is probably the support level.  He’d want to see more upside potential relative to the downside to support, so would not recommend it.

Financial Services
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SELL

He loves ZWB-T and it is a great way to hold the banks.  But he sold out, taking profits, putting it into ZWU-T.  This is a lot more interest rate sensitive.  ZWU-T will outperform in a market correction as utilities are more defensive.

E.T.F.'s

He loves ZWB-T and it is a great way to hold the banks.  But he sold out, taking profits, putting it into ZWU-T.  This is a lot more interest rate sensitive.  ZWU-T will outperform in a market correction as utilities are more defensive.

E.T.F.'s
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BUY

He loves ZWB-T and it is a great way to hold the banks.  But he sold out, taking profits, putting it into ZWU-T.  This is a lot more interest rate sensitive.  ZWU-T will outperform in a market correction as utilities are more defensive.

E.T.F.'s

He loves ZWB-T and it is a great way to hold the banks.  But he sold out, taking profits, putting it into ZWU-T.  This is a lot more interest rate sensitive.  ZWU-T will outperform in a market correction as utilities are more defensive.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

November 27, 2017

Market.  Thursday they expect to have a go on the tax bill, the senate version of it.  They hope to have it completed by Christmas.  Markets are going to be looking at this closely.  Then there should be a sell on news when the president signs it.  Larry does not believe there will not be any new money added to the debt.  There is a shortage of skilled labour in the US.  He does not believe there will be a 5% increase in GDP because of the tax bill, as predicted.  Bitcoin could be reaching a bubble.  There is no intrinsic value.  He believes in electronic currency in the future but he thinks Bitcoin will turn out to be some kind of payment system.

Market.  Thursday they expect to have a go on the tax bill, the senate version of it.  They hope to have it completed by Christmas.  Markets are going to be looking at this closely.  Then there should be a sell on news when the president signs it.  Larry does not believe there will not be any new money added to the debt.  There is a shortage of skilled labour in the US.  He does not believe there will be a 5% increase in GDP because of the tax bill, as predicted.  Bitcoin could be reaching a bubble.  There is no intrinsic value.  He believes in electronic currency in the future but he thinks Bitcoin will turn out to be some kind of payment system.

Unknown
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BUY
General Market Comment 

November 27, 2017

Dividend paying global ETF recommendation.  CYH-T is a currency hedged.  ZWE-T, ZWH-T ZWC are good for covered calls.  HAZ-T is actively managed.

Dividend paying global ETF recommendation.  CYH-T is a currency hedged.  ZWE-T, ZWH-T ZWC are good for covered calls.  HAZ-T is actively managed.

Unknown
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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 27, 2017

Service Companies vs. large Cap Oil and Gas.  In the US there is OIHS-N.  They are companies involved in drilling, rigs and infrastructure.  E&P companies are the ones at risk to the product price.  He likes the pipeline space.  The commodity is going to hang around $50 +/- $10 for some time.  He prefers diversified oil companies like SU-T.

Service Companies vs. large Cap Oil and Gas.  In the US there is OIHS-N.  They are companies involved in drilling, rigs and infrastructure.  E&P companies are the ones at risk to the product price.  He likes the pipeline space.  The commodity is going to hang around $50 +/- $10 for some time.  He prefers diversified oil companies like SU-T.

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General Market Comment 

November 27, 2017

Educational Segment.  Financial Literacy – Robotic Advisors.  Currently, the human advisor has to talk to the client and get to know them.  They propose solutions, implement them and then constantly monitor and adjust strategy.  Robotic advising services bring costs down.  The first step is best done with a human.  You need a trusted goto person.  It is hard to trust something you can’t look in the eyes.  The constant monitoring is best for the computers but explaining complex concepts or guiding the investor through difficult times still requires an advisor.  The advisor industry will be disrupted over the next decade by robot advisors.

Educational Segment.  Financial Literacy – Robotic Advisors.  Currently, the human advisor has to talk to the client and get to know them.  They propose solutions, implement them and then constantly monitor and adjust strategy.  Robotic advising services bring costs down.  The first step is best done with a human.  You need a trusted goto person.  It is hard to trust something you can’t look in the eyes.  The constant monitoring is best for the computers but explaining complex concepts or guiding the investor through difficult times still requires an advisor.  The advisor industry will be disrupted over the next decade by robot advisors.

Unknown
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DON'T BUY
Aurora Cannabis(ACB-T) 

November 27, 2017

He does not know the company.  The company is in play.  Cannabis will be maybe 1% of the world when the industry matures.  It is speculative right now.  The competition from the illegal market is going to be high and will suppress price.  The upside is limited in terms of industry demand.  If you are going to play it, play the whole group (HMMJ-T).

He does not know the company.  The company is in play.  Cannabis will be maybe 1% of the world when the industry matures.  It is speculative right now.  The competition from the illegal market is going to be high and will suppress price.  The upside is limited in terms of industry demand.  If you are going to play it, play the whole group (HMMJ-T).

0
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SPECULATIVE BUY
Bombardier Inc (B)(BBD.B-T) 

November 27, 2017

They just sold half the company for a song.  He now classifies it as a speculative company.  The chart suggests it is recovering.  Resistance is at about $4.  Analysts’ targets are all over the map.  Analysts are suggesting on average about 10% higher a year out. 

transportation equip & components

They just sold half the company for a song.  He now classifies it as a speculative company.  The chart suggests it is recovering.  Resistance is at about $4.  Analysts’ targets are all over the map.  Analysts are suggesting on average about 10% higher a year out. 

transportation equip & components
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COMMENT

A global tactical strategy.  It is not unlike what he tries to do for clients.  It is asset allocation in an ETF form.  It has been out for a couple of weeks so we don’t know how it is going to do.  There is manager risk.  He does like the idea of the strategy, however.

E.T.F.'s

A global tactical strategy.  It is not unlike what he tries to do for clients.  It is asset allocation in an ETF form.  It has been out for a couple of weeks so we don’t know how it is going to do.  There is manager risk.  He does like the idea of the strategy, however.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

November 20, 2017

[Today's show was pre-empted by BNN's coverage of the Nabraska vote on Keystone XL Pipeline.]

[Today's show was pre-empted by BNN's coverage of the Nabraska vote on Keystone XL Pipeline.]

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

November 13, 2017

Market.  GE-N announced a dividend cut.  It is not the company it was years ago.  It was like IBM 25 years ago when they reengineered it.  There will be tax loss selling to come and the dividend cut is probably not the first to come.  At some point it will probably be a bargain.  They won’t rebuild the dividend any time soon.  If this goes down to $15 then you are back to an attractive dividend.  We are starting to have to deal with BREXIT.  It will be disruptive.  All trade deals being broken by Trump will be so also.  The US is being very disruptive and this will be a negative for the world.  Tax reforms in the US:  It will be difficult to reconcile the state vs. federal taxs.  It will be a disappointing bill that will give you a sell-the-news affect.

Market.  GE-N announced a dividend cut.  It is not the company it was years ago.  It was like IBM 25 years ago when they reengineered it.  There will be tax loss selling to come and the dividend cut is probably not the first to come.  At some point it will probably be a bargain.  They won’t rebuild the dividend any time soon.  If this goes down to $15 then you are back to an attractive dividend.  We are starting to have to deal with BREXIT.  It will be disruptive.  All trade deals being broken by Trump will be so also.  The US is being very disruptive and this will be a negative for the world.  Tax reforms in the US:  It will be difficult to reconcile the state vs. federal taxs.  It will be a disappointing bill that will give you a sell-the-news affect.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

November 13, 2017

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin: He thinks it is speculative.  It is a crypto currency.  It is money:  a store of value, a unit of account and a medium of exchange (the definition of money).  The intrinsic value of Bitcoin is nothing.  It is more likely to be zero than anything else.  GBTC-N is a fund that trades in Bitcoin as the underlying asset.  From a risk perspective, it is the highest risk category you could imagine.  GBTC-N trades at a 49% premium to the underlying currency.  Expect volatile ups and down.  He is negative on the outlook.  It could keep going up for years but it is a speculative vehicle and you should leave it alone unless you are a big risk taker as you are not owning the underlying technology.  It has no underlying value.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin: He thinks it is speculative.  It is a crypto currency.  It is money:  a store of value, a unit of account and a medium of exchange (the definition of money).  The intrinsic value of Bitcoin is nothing.  It is more likely to be zero than anything else.  GBTC-N is a fund that trades in Bitcoin as the underlying asset.  From a risk perspective, it is the highest risk category you could imagine.  GBTC-N trades at a 49% premium to the underlying currency.  Expect volatile ups and down.  He is negative on the outlook.  It could keep going up for years but it is a speculative vehicle and you should leave it alone unless you are a big risk taker as you are not owning the underlying technology.  It has no underlying value.

Unknown
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WEAK BUY

He loves covered call strategies.  They are very active managers and he thinks they do a very good job of it.  The last few years have been an up market in the healthcare market.  XLV-N is the broad US healthcare market.  You have a much better return with HHL-T because of the dividend as well.  It is a good way to hold healthcare late in the cycle.

E.T.F.'s

He loves covered call strategies.  They are very active managers and he thinks they do a very good job of it.  The last few years have been an up market in the healthcare market.  XLV-N is the broad US healthcare market.  You have a much better return with HHL-T because of the dividend as well.  It is a good way to hold healthcare late in the cycle.

E.T.F.'s
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COMMENT

It is trading at double the NAV.  He does not know enough about it to say why it is trading at such a premium.  It has all the banks and US financials.  He thinks there is something wrong here.  He would want to do some homework on it.

REAL ESTATE

It is trading at double the NAV.  He does not know enough about it to say why it is trading at such a premium.  It has all the banks and US financials.  He thinks there is something wrong here.  He would want to do some homework on it.

REAL ESTATE
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT
SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY-N) 

November 13, 2017

SPY-N vs. ZSP-T.  They should be identical except ZSP-T trades in Toronto but has exposure to the US$.  If the US$ gets stronger it should help the ETF.  SPY-N has underperformed dramatically because it is in US$.  They would be identical if you converted the dollars.  There is foreign tax withholdings of about 30 basis points on SPY-N.  ZSP-T gives you a foreign tax withholding also but you get a tax credit.

E.T.F.'s

SPY-N vs. ZSP-T.  They should be identical except ZSP-T trades in Toronto but has exposure to the US$.  If the US$ gets stronger it should help the ETF.  SPY-N has underperformed dramatically because it is in US$.  They would be identical if you converted the dollars.  There is foreign tax withholdings of about 30 basis points on SPY-N.  ZSP-T gives you a foreign tax withholding also but you get a tax credit.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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SELL
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

November 13, 2017

Analysts are looking for some upside.  He would hit the sell button.  He has no direct exposure to the Canadian banks.  He thinks we’ll come back to the $62 level.  Wait on the sidelines for a correction within the next year.  There is nothing wrong with TD-T specifically.

banks

Analysts are looking for some upside.  He would hit the sell button.  He has no direct exposure to the Canadian banks.  He thinks we’ll come back to the $62 level.  Wait on the sidelines for a correction within the next year.  There is nothing wrong with TD-T specifically.

banks
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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WEAK BUY
Verizon Communications(VZ-N) 

November 13, 2017

Analysts generally have it as a hold.  Telecom is cheap to him.  They have been underperforming for almost a year.  IYZ-N reflects the telecom sector and he has been buying it.  He likes it here and is in an accumulation here.  He prefers the ETF to one company.  He does not know if VZ-N will be a winner over the boarder sector.

telephone utilities

Analysts generally have it as a hold.  Telecom is cheap to him.  They have been underperforming for almost a year.  IYZ-N reflects the telecom sector and he has been buying it.  He likes it here and is in an accumulation here.  He prefers the ETF to one company.  He does not know if VZ-N will be a winner over the boarder sector.

telephone utilities
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COMMENT
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF(ZSP-T) 

November 13, 2017

SPY-N vs. ZSP-T.  They should be identical except ZSP-T trades in Toronto but has exposure to the US$.  If the US$ gets stronger it should help the ETF.  SPY-N has underperformed dramatically because it is in US$.  They would be identical if you converted the dollars.  There is foreign tax withholdings of about 30 basis points on SPY-N.  ZSP-T gives you a foreign tax withholding also but you get a tax credit.

E.T.F.'s

SPY-N vs. ZSP-T.  They should be identical except ZSP-T trades in Toronto but has exposure to the US$.  If the US$ gets stronger it should help the ETF.  SPY-N has underperformed dramatically because it is in US$.  They would be identical if you converted the dollars.  There is foreign tax withholdings of about 30 basis points on SPY-N.  ZSP-T gives you a foreign tax withholding also but you get a tax credit.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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General Market Comment 

November 6, 2017

Market.  If you look at the big names in The Paradise Papers, it is like a year ago when a similar list of offshore account holders was released.  It should not be surprising to anyone that people with lots of money look to minimize tax burden.  When the government starts taking more than 50% in total tax, it is not ‘fair’ anymore and it tells you governments are not efficient and take more than they should.  This does not mean much to the markets but the governments are going to have to dodge this one.  The issues in Saudi Arabia will have implications for those doing business in that part of the world.  If you look at the ETF KSA-N it trades into Saudi Arabia, it is unchanged although there was volatility over the weekend.  In 3 to 5 years he feels oil will still be anchored to $50 so he would sell oil.

Market.  If you look at the big names in The Paradise Papers, it is like a year ago when a similar list of offshore account holders was released.  It should not be surprising to anyone that people with lots of money look to minimize tax burden.  When the government starts taking more than 50% in total tax, it is not ‘fair’ anymore and it tells you governments are not efficient and take more than they should.  This does not mean much to the markets but the governments are going to have to dodge this one.  The issues in Saudi Arabia will have implications for those doing business in that part of the world.  If you look at the ETF KSA-N it trades into Saudi Arabia, it is unchanged although there was volatility over the weekend.  In 3 to 5 years he feels oil will still be anchored to $50 so he would sell oil.

Unknown
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BUY
General Market Comment 

November 6, 2017

ETFs started in the early ‘90s.  It is rare where the ETF provider is creating an index.  Big name indexes bring you a way to do long term holdings.  Actively managed ETFs bring you lower costs.  Larry is biased toward ETFs for good reasons.

ETFs started in the early ‘90s.  It is rare where the ETF provider is creating an index.  Big name indexes bring you a way to do long term holdings.  Actively managed ETFs bring you lower costs.  Larry is biased toward ETFs for good reasons.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

November 6, 2017

WTI vs. Brent.  The quality of oil has changed.  Alaska oil is at $63 and WTI is $55.  You have delivery costs higher with some sources of oil than others.  Since about 2010 since the US started fracking, supply went up and so domestic supply increase in the US force prices down in Europe.

WTI vs. Brent.  The quality of oil has changed.  Alaska oil is at $63 and WTI is $55.  You have delivery costs higher with some sources of oil than others.  Since about 2010 since the US started fracking, supply went up and so domestic supply increase in the US force prices down in Europe.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

November 6, 2017

Educational Segment.  Volume on ETFs.  Consider ZEB-T which is high volume.  The underlying stocks each trade way more volume and especially the value.  ZJN-T is low volume, about 3k shares a day.  The top volume stocks in its holdings trade at quite large volumes in comparison.  If an ETF provider creates a unit, it is priced according to what it costs them to go out and buy all the stocks within it.  This concept is not well understood by the investing public.

Educational Segment.  Volume on ETFs.  Consider ZEB-T which is high volume.  The underlying stocks each trade way more volume and especially the value.  ZJN-T is low volume, about 3k shares a day.  The top volume stocks in its holdings trade at quite large volumes in comparison.  If an ETF provider creates a unit, it is priced according to what it costs them to go out and buy all the stocks within it.  This concept is not well understood by the investing public.

Unknown
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HOLD
Arc Resources Ltd(ARX-T) 

November 6, 2017

Natural Gas.  He does not have big exposure to the natural gas space.  He thinks it will be an increasingly important way going forward to replace coal.  There are huge, huge supplies.  It will probably range trade for years.  He does not see a huge upside.  He would hold now but if over the winter we get a cold spell and it shoots up gas prices, then it would be a time to liquidate.  Oil will trade at a discount to the North American market due to a lack of pipeline capacity.

oil/gas

Natural Gas.  He does not have big exposure to the natural gas space.  He thinks it will be an increasingly important way going forward to replace coal.  There are huge, huge supplies.  It will probably range trade for years.  He does not see a huge upside.  He would hold now but if over the winter we get a cold spell and it shoots up gas prices, then it would be a time to liquidate.  Oil will trade at a discount to the North American market due to a lack of pipeline capacity.

oil/gas
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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WEAK BUY

It is an income trust, a revenue trust.  It is a stream of revenue, not profit.  It is not exposed to costs or a jump up in taxes.  He sees no evidence of distribution cuts.  They seem to raise them once a year and pay them once a month.  You have to look at the underlying franchise.  Are hamburger sales going to continue?  He is at a loss because he does not go to these kinds of restaurants.  A downtrend has broken.  You may buy this for stability and distribution.  As long as it is in a diversified portfolio.  You need to decide if consumptions of these kinds of meals are increasing or not.

investment companies/funds

It is an income trust, a revenue trust.  It is a stream of revenue, not profit.  It is not exposed to costs or a jump up in taxes.  He sees no evidence of distribution cuts.  They seem to raise them once a year and pay them once a month.  You have to look at the underlying franchise.  Are hamburger sales going to continue?  He is at a loss because he does not go to these kinds of restaurants.  A downtrend has broken.  You may buy this for stability and distribution.  As long as it is in a diversified portfolio.  You need to decide if consumptions of these kinds of meals are increasing or not.

investment companies/funds
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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BUY

Europe, high dividends, CAD$ hedged.  Don’t look for another 22% return, however.  He gets some downside protection and a yield of about 5%.

E.T.F.'s

Europe, high dividends, CAD$ hedged.  Don’t look for another 22% return, however.  He gets some downside protection and a yield of about 5%.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

October 30, 2017

Market.  New highs but the TSX has been lagging world markets for a considerable time.  We are heavily weighted in banks and energy.  The banks bounced back and we had some GDP growth.  Curbing the growth in housing is going to be a huge problem.  Oil will stay at $50 for 5 years so there is not a lot of optimism for growth.  It looks like in the US we are going to get a vote on the tax bill in mid-January.  This will not solve any of the problems the US economy has.  AMZN-Q is destructive.  The stock has been the best stock for the last 15 years (38% over the last 15 years).  They lost almost a billion dollars in their core retail operation.  They are only great at disrupting so where is this going to go.  As a value investor he does not get the story.

Market.  New highs but the TSX has been lagging world markets for a considerable time.  We are heavily weighted in banks and energy.  The banks bounced back and we had some GDP growth.  Curbing the growth in housing is going to be a huge problem.  Oil will stay at $50 for 5 years so there is not a lot of optimism for growth.  It looks like in the US we are going to get a vote on the tax bill in mid-January.  This will not solve any of the problems the US economy has.  AMZN-Q is destructive.  The stock has been the best stock for the last 15 years (38% over the last 15 years).  They lost almost a billion dollars in their core retail operation.  They are only great at disrupting so where is this going to go.  As a value investor he does not get the story.

Unknown
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SPECULATIVE BUY
General Market Comment 

October 30, 2017

Uranium as a contrarian Investment.  It has been a value trap for many years.  Look at URA-N.  It does look like there is a longer term bottom forming.  He likes it.  This is a speculative area he would be okay having a percent in.  He does not have any right now.  We are getting close to this.

Uranium as a contrarian Investment.  It has been a value trap for many years.  Look at URA-N.  It does look like there is a longer term bottom forming.  He likes it.  This is a speculative area he would be okay having a percent in.  He does not have any right now.  We are getting close to this.

Unknown
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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

October 30, 2017

Energy.  He does not like the energy sector.  He likes what they are doing for fracking over the next 5 years but he is not company specific.

Energy.  He does not like the energy sector.  He likes what they are doing for fracking over the next 5 years but he is not company specific.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

October 30, 2017

Gold.  He thought we could get to $1300 where he is a seller and he is a buyer at $1100.  He is adding to his exposures at $1250.  It is in a trading range.  He does not see it breaking for the next year. 

Gold.  He thought we could get to $1300 where he is a seller and he is a buyer at $1100.  He is adding to his exposures at $1250.  It is in a trading range.  He does not see it breaking for the next year. 

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

October 30, 2017

Educational Segment.  The Canadian Dollar.  It has been on a roller coaster ride this year.  The 2 year spread between US and Canadian is the highest correlation to the Canadian dollar.  Our bonds usually yield more than the US.  But back in 2015 that changed.  Short term this is a negative factor.  In the futures market, speculators in the Canadian dollar shorted this year but now are net long.  That potentially has some downside for the dollar.

Educational Segment.  The Canadian Dollar.  It has been on a roller coaster ride this year.  The 2 year spread between US and Canadian is the highest correlation to the Canadian dollar.  Our bonds usually yield more than the US.  But back in 2015 that changed.  Short term this is a negative factor.  In the futures market, speculators in the Canadian dollar shorted this year but now are net long.  That potentially has some downside for the dollar.

Unknown
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DON'T BUY
Aphria Inc(APH-T) 

October 30, 2017

He prefers to play the broad space rather than figure out who wins the race.  He prefers the HMMJ-T ETF.  We are close to a market high so he thinks the market risk is high.  The next broader market correction will pull this one back.  He would keep your powder dry.  In a 10% allocation to speculation he would put 1% in Marijuana.  Maybe 3 or 4 if you are really speculative.  He would prefer speculating more in AI.

agriculture

He prefers to play the broad space rather than figure out who wins the race.  He prefers the HMMJ-T ETF.  We are close to a market high so he thinks the market risk is high.  The next broader market correction will pull this one back.  He would keep your powder dry.  In a 10% allocation to speculation he would put 1% in Marijuana.  Maybe 3 or 4 if you are really speculative.  He would prefer speculating more in AI.

agriculture
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PARTIAL SELL

Preferreds and dividend payers.  It is a great holding bu concentrated in the sector.  It is at all time highs.  He is reducing his exposure to the financial sector now.  If it goes higher he would reduce more.

E.T.F.'s

Preferreds and dividend payers.  It is a great holding bu concentrated in the sector.  It is at all time highs.  He is reducing his exposure to the financial sector now.  If it goes higher he would reduce more.

E.T.F.'s
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DON'T BUY

A double leverage natural gas ETF.  He would not hold for the long term.  Go for HNY-T as you lose 3-5% per month based on losses in the nature of the futures contracts in the leveraged ETF.  He also likes the Junior Natural Gas ETF ZJN-T for longer term.

E.T.F.'s

A double leverage natural gas ETF.  He would not hold for the long term.  Go for HNY-T as you lose 3-5% per month based on losses in the nature of the futures contracts in the leveraged ETF.  He also likes the Junior Natural Gas ETF ZJN-T for longer term.

E.T.F.'s
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WATCH

There is froth in the sector and he would wait for a 20% minimum pullback before nibbling at these companies.  We should get a correction and you should buy the correction.

E.T.F.'s

There is froth in the sector and he would wait for a 20% minimum pullback before nibbling at these companies.  We should get a correction and you should buy the correction.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

October 23, 2017

Market.  He expects a big week in earnings.  FNG-N has all the FANG stocks that are reporting this week.  You had a pretty big run up and then some weakness.  His gut feel is that we should get a bit of a sell-the-news action.  He likes the idea of diversification and this is a very niche ETF.  He feels the FED will continue to step on the breaks and try to raise interest rates.  The ECB is doing the same thing.  It will be a challenge over the next year.  It is the beginning of the unwind for them.  He does not have a strong feeling to sell Europe at present, though.

Market.  He expects a big week in earnings.  FNG-N has all the FANG stocks that are reporting this week.  You had a pretty big run up and then some weakness.  His gut feel is that we should get a bit of a sell-the-news action.  He likes the idea of diversification and this is a very niche ETF.  He feels the FED will continue to step on the breaks and try to raise interest rates.  The ECB is doing the same thing.  It will be a challenge over the next year.  It is the beginning of the unwind for them.  He does not have a strong feeling to sell Europe at present, though.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

October 23, 2017

The long term implication of an inverted yield curve.  Prior to every recession we ever had we saw an inverted yield curve.  It forecasts a recession well out from the present.  We should get a bounce short term in the curve but longer term we should get an inversion.

The long term implication of an inverted yield curve.  Prior to every recession we ever had we saw an inverted yield curve.  It forecasts a recession well out from the present.  We should get a bounce short term in the curve but longer term we should get an inversion.

Unknown
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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

October 23, 2017

Sleep at night portfolios (mutual finds Larry manages for BMO).  Some combination of the three will fit most people’s portfolios.  The global dividend fund is suitable for most people.  The global balanced fund is currently yielding about 4%.  All three manage risk when it comes up.

Sleep at night portfolios (mutual finds Larry manages for BMO).  Some combination of the three will fit most people’s portfolios.  The global dividend fund is suitable for most people.  The global balanced fund is currently yielding about 4%.  All three manage risk when it comes up.

Unknown
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N/A
General Market Comment 

October 23, 2017

Educational Segment.  Seasonality.  The seasonal pattern has not worked this year (Sell in May and Go Away).  There was no market correction in Sept./Oct.  Since we did not get a correction you might say we will not get much of a seasonal impact for the rest of the year.  He looked into history and over 30 years in years where we did not get that seasonal correction, the market just continued up and the seasonality in November December is even stronger, although sometimes the correction is just later in the year.  Seasonality is just one factor to incorporate into your investing decisions.

Educational Segment.  Seasonality.  The seasonal pattern has not worked this year (Sell in May and Go Away).  There was no market correction in Sept./Oct.  Since we did not get a correction you might say we will not get much of a seasonal impact for the rest of the year.  He looked into history and over 30 years in years where we did not get that seasonal correction, the market just continued up and the seasonality in November December is even stronger, although sometimes the correction is just later in the year.  Seasonality is just one factor to incorporate into your investing decisions.

Unknown
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COMMENT

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.

E.T.F.'s

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.

E.T.F.'s

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.

E.T.F.'s

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.

E.T.F.'s

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT

The .U units are in US$ and not a lot of people are using them.  Its liquidity is that of the underlying securities.  The market maker creates more units as required.  There is no need to worry about liquidity just because the ETF is thinly traded.

E.T.F.'s

The .U units are in US$ and not a lot of people are using them.  Its liquidity is that of the underlying securities.  The market maker creates more units as required.  There is no need to worry about liquidity just because the ETF is thinly traded.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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$14.000
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N/A
General Market Comment 

October 16, 2017

Market.  US earnings are starting on a so-so footing.  The banks started off and given the low volatility of the market, trading volumes were lower than expected.  Revenue growth year over year was not as great as expected so markets were soft.  Banks’ profitability is based on the yield curve and so he does not get excited about the rising interest rate environment because the yield curve is getting flattened.  If you add three more rate hikes, by Q3, we get an inverted yield curve and that predicts recession in 2019.  He does not want to chase markets higher.  Defense is called for.  We are in the worse seasonal period of the year and yet markets have gone higher.  Mid to end of October is historically the worst part of this.  He is waiting for today’s unveiling of the new income tax changes in Canada.

Market.  US earnings are starting on a so-so footing.  The banks started off and given the low volatility of the market, trading volumes were lower than expected.  Revenue growth year over year was not as great as expected so markets were soft.  Banks’ profitability is based on the yield curve and so he does not get excited about the rising interest rate environment because the yield curve is getting flattened.  If you add three more rate hikes, by Q3, we get an inverted yield curve and that predicts recession in 2019.  He does not want to chase markets higher.  Defense is called for.  We are in the worse seasonal period of the year and yet markets have gone higher.  Mid to end of October is historically the worst part of this.  He is waiting for today’s unveiling of the new income tax changes in Canada.

Unknown
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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

October 16, 2017

Currency.  If people sell the dollar, where is the other side of that trade?  The Canadian dollar is not big enough for the sale of US dollars.  The Euro can’t be because the Euro will break up soon.  The Japanese Yen is a possibility and he does not think we will see a flight to Chinese Yuan.  Don’t worry about the dollar.  It is not going anywhere any time soon.

Currency.  If people sell the dollar, where is the other side of that trade?  The Canadian dollar is not big enough for the sale of US dollars.  The Euro can’t be because the Euro will break up soon.  The Japanese Yen is a possibility and he does not think we will see a flight to Chinese Yuan.  Don’t worry about the dollar.  It is not going anywhere any time soon.

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General Market Comment 

October 16, 2017

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 

Unknown
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BUY

It is a very good strategy.  They don’t own the stocks but buy a derivate (futures based swap contract) so you don’t get a tax withholding.  This is an advantage in taxable accounts.  It’s only been out a short while.  It is a very good product for people focusing on tax efficiency.

E.T.F.'s

It is a very good strategy.  They don’t own the stocks but buy a derivate (futures based swap contract) so you don’t get a tax withholding.  This is an advantage in taxable accounts.  It’s only been out a short while.  It is a very good product for people focusing on tax efficiency.

E.T.F.'s
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WEAK BUY
Mastercard Inc.(MA-N) 

October 16, 2017

When the consumer is at risk, such as in an economic slowdown, it is this one that underperforms.  When the economy performs well and credit is building it does well.  He is cautious right now.  He thinks it is extended and is late cycle.  This is a payment processor and not a lender.  Non-payment risk goes to the underlying financial institutions.

other services

When the consumer is at risk, such as in an economic slowdown, it is this one that underperforms.  When the economy performs well and credit is building it does well.  He is cautious right now.  He thinks it is extended and is late cycle.  This is a payment processor and not a lender.  Non-payment risk goes to the underlying financial institutions.

other services
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HOLD
Maple Leaf Foods(MFI-T) 

October 16, 2017

There is some short term resistance.  There is nothing wrong technically.  He would be concerned if we took out the lows from the last couple of months.  The long term trend line looks good.  He is not concerned right now.

food processing

There is some short term resistance.  There is nothing wrong technically.  He would be concerned if we took out the lows from the last couple of months.  The long term trend line looks good.  He is not concerned right now.

food processing
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DON'T BUY
Precision Drilling(PD-T) 

October 16, 2017

The energy sector is challenged.  He has owned this one on and off over the years.  When there is potential growth in drilling this is a go to stock.  It seems the lack of pipelines out of Canada will be a problem.  This stock will probably not have a material rally.  If we have a regime change in 2019 and there is more openness to pipelines we get a change.

oil/gas field services

The energy sector is challenged.  He has owned this one on and off over the years.  When there is potential growth in drilling this is a go to stock.  It seems the lack of pipelines out of Canada will be a problem.  This stock will probably not have a material rally.  If we have a regime change in 2019 and there is more openness to pipelines we get a change.

oil/gas field services
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WATCH

The broad Canadian bond market.  The interest rate risk on the broader market is at 7 which mean if we see a 100 basis point increase in interest rates, you will lose about 7% in terms of capital.  It is not time to step in yet.  If interest rates went up 25 basis points then it would be time to move in.  Don’t extend duration until interest rates go up a little but.

E.T.F.'s

The broad Canadian bond market.  The interest rate risk on the broader market is at 7 which mean if we see a 100 basis point increase in interest rates, you will lose about 7% in terms of capital.  It is not time to step in yet.  If interest rates went up 25 basis points then it would be time to move in.  Don’t extend duration until interest rates go up a little but.

E.T.F.'s
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BUY on WEAKNESS

Laddered preferreds.  They do well in rising interest rate environments.  Fundamentally it is not cheap here.  He got a lot a year ago.  He does not like the relative value here.  He would buy into weakness on a pull pack.  That could happen in December.

E.T.F.'s

Laddered preferreds.  They do well in rising interest rate environments.  Fundamentally it is not cheap here.  He got a lot a year ago.  He does not like the relative value here.  He would buy into weakness on a pull pack.  That could happen in December.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

October 2, 2017

Market.  Market expectations on tax reform were for nothing getting done.  Now it looks like they will put all their weight in getting a tax package done.  Whatever they get done should be disappointing and we should get a sell-the-news reaction.  Over the last three months earnings revisions have gone down on the S&P.  Canadian tax changes will mean nothing to markets initially but over the long term it may discourage the Canadian entrepreneur.  The government of Spain may fall as a region tries to separate but markets are not reacting.

Market.  Market expectations on tax reform were for nothing getting done.  Now it looks like they will put all their weight in getting a tax package done.  Whatever they get done should be disappointing and we should get a sell-the-news reaction.  Over the last three months earnings revisions have gone down on the S&P.  Canadian tax changes will mean nothing to markets initially but over the long term it may discourage the Canadian entrepreneur.  The government of Spain may fall as a region tries to separate but markets are not reacting.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

October 2, 2017

CAD$.  On the rate hike front, the BOC is more likely to match the US Fed.  He would not look for an October move -- December maybe.  In the next 6 months the CAD$ will go from 79 to 83 cents.  Below 80 cents he wants to be hedged.  He is fully hedged today.

CAD$.  On the rate hike front, the BOC is more likely to match the US Fed.  He would not look for an October move -- December maybe.  In the next 6 months the CAD$ will go from 79 to 83 cents.  Below 80 cents he wants to be hedged.  He is fully hedged today.

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General Market Comment 

October 2, 2017

Bitcoin.  Governments don’t control it.  He believes we are moving to electronic-only currencies globally.  He does not think governments will allow alternative currencies with unlimited amounts in circulation.  Electronic currency gets rid of the gray economy.  GBTC-N is a speculative instrument. 

Bitcoin.  Governments don’t control it.  He believes we are moving to electronic-only currencies globally.  He does not think governments will allow alternative currencies with unlimited amounts in circulation.  Electronic currency gets rid of the gray economy.  GBTC-N is a speculative instrument. 

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General Market Comment 

October 2, 2017

He has been cautious for a year and a half.  There are defensive things you can do.  He runs portfolios with half the risk of the general market using covered call strategies, for example.  Make sure you are globally diversified.  Don’t sit in cash and wait for a pullback.  It may be 2019 before we get a pullback. 

He has been cautious for a year and a half.  There are defensive things you can do.  He runs portfolios with half the risk of the general market using covered call strategies, for example.  Make sure you are globally diversified.  Don’t sit in cash and wait for a pullback.  It may be 2019 before we get a pullback. 

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General Market Comment 

October 2, 2017

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  4. The Independent.  A lot of behavioral learning has been incorporated into the body of knowledge.  The independent is a BNN watcher, reads the paper and is interested in being involved in the investing.  These investors are susceptible to a self attribution bias – they take credit if it works and blame the other guy if it doesn’t.  It causes portfolios to be concentrated.  They should focus on diversification. 

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  4. The Independent.  A lot of behavioral learning has been incorporated into the body of knowledge.  The independent is a BNN watcher, reads the paper and is interested in being involved in the investing.  These investors are susceptible to a self attribution bias – they take credit if it works and blame the other guy if it doesn’t.  It causes portfolios to be concentrated.  They should focus on diversification. 

Unknown
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BUY on WEAKNESS

MRU-T will sell some of their 10% holding in ATD.B-T in an orderly way.  The stock price leveled out over the last couple of years.  He would like it if it pulled back a little.  The forward looking PE is 17, a little high.  He would not buy it today while this M&A is going on.

food stores

MRU-T will sell some of their 10% holding in ATD.B-T in an orderly way.  The stock price leveled out over the last couple of years.  He would like it if it pulled back a little.  The forward looking PE is 17, a little high.  He would not buy it today while this M&A is going on.

food stores
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HOLD
Husky Energy(HSE-T) 

October 2, 2017

Oil is probably $50 plus or minus $10 for some time.  HSE-T over the last year peaked when oil was in the mid-$50s.  It is priced for $50 oil at present.  We are in the middle of its trading range.  He has been lightening up a little on oil recently.

oil/gas

Oil is probably $50 plus or minus $10 for some time.  HSE-T over the last year peaked when oil was in the mid-$50s.  It is priced for $50 oil at present.  We are in the middle of its trading range.  He has been lightening up a little on oil recently.

oil/gas
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COMMENT

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.

E.T.F.'s

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.

E.T.F.'s
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WAIT

Equal weighted Canadian bank covered call strategy.  Banks should settle into a trading range over the next couple of years so buy low and sell high.  Wait until it pulls back.  You could trim your position right now.

E.T.F.'s

Equal weighted Canadian bank covered call strategy.  Banks should settle into a trading range over the next couple of years so buy low and sell high.  Wait until it pulls back.  You could trim your position right now.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.

E.T.F.'s

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.

E.T.F.'s
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General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

Markets.  Trump was not focused on North Korea over the weekend in Tweets.  But North Korea is suggesting that previous tweets were a declaration of war.  Markets have dropped slightly.  At some point the market wakes up.  In Germany, Merkel was re-elected but with fewer votes.  The Euro has dropped.  Governing in Germany is going to me more difficult.  Eventually the European project starts to break apart.  The risk factor is there.  Unwinding of countries’ balance sheets is another market risk present.  Caution should prevail in the markets right now.

Markets.  Trump was not focused on North Korea over the weekend in Tweets.  But North Korea is suggesting that previous tweets were a declaration of war.  Markets have dropped slightly.  At some point the market wakes up.  In Germany, Merkel was re-elected but with fewer votes.  The Euro has dropped.  Governing in Germany is going to me more difficult.  Eventually the European project starts to break apart.  The risk factor is there.  Unwinding of countries’ balance sheets is another market risk present.  Caution should prevail in the markets right now.

Unknown
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WATCH
General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

Lithium ETF Recommendation.  LIT-N has had a great run up and is tremendously over bought.  He would wait for a pull back into the low $30s before buying.

Lithium ETF Recommendation.  LIT-N has had a great run up and is tremendously over bought.  He would wait for a pull back into the low $30s before buying.

Unknown
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BUY
General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

Fang Stocks ETF Recommendation.  FNG-N.  See his educational segment today.  When we go into ‘Risk Off’ you will see a lot of profit taking happening.

Fang Stocks ETF Recommendation.  FNG-N.  See his educational segment today.  When we go into ‘Risk Off’ you will see a lot of profit taking happening.

Unknown
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BUY
General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

Sleep At Night Portfolio.  He nick-named the portfolios he began running for BMO-T about 4 years ago.  He still believes in these very much. 

Sleep At Night Portfolio.  He nick-named the portfolios he began running for BMO-T about 4 years ago.  He still believes in these very much. 

Unknown
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WATCH
General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

ETF in AI Category.  BOTZ-N and ROBO-N.  They have had a phenomenal run up and are probably over done a bit at this point.  Japan has a significant weight.  It will be an investment theme for decades to come.

ETF in AI Category.  BOTZ-N and ROBO-N.  They have had a phenomenal run up and are probably over done a bit at this point.  Japan has a significant weight.  It will be an investment theme for decades to come.

Unknown
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N/A
General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  3. The Follower.  Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’.  Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification.  They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias.  They won’t make a lot of their own decisions.  The FANG stocks have a lot of these.

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  3. The Follower.  Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’.  Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification.  They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias.  They won’t make a lot of their own decisions.  The FANG stocks have a lot of these.

Unknown
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WATCH

A laddered bond portfolio.  He likes it.  Each ETF provider’s version has had bad performance over the last few months because short term yields are seen as rising.  The risk is if the BOC is more aggressively tightening.  You want to wait until after the next announcement when there may be another pull back and then perhaps get in.

E.T.F.'s

A laddered bond portfolio.  He likes it.  Each ETF provider’s version has had bad performance over the last few months because short term yields are seen as rising.  The risk is if the BOC is more aggressively tightening.  You want to wait until after the next announcement when there may be another pull back and then perhaps get in.

E.T.F.'s
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WATCH
Imperial Oil(IMO-T) 

September 25, 2017

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.

integrated oils

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.

integrated oils
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DON'T BUY
Exxon Mobil(XOM-N) 

September 25, 2017

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.

integrated oils

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.

integrated oils
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$80.980
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BUY
BMO US Put Write ETF.(ZPW-T) 

September 25, 2017

Writes put options across many sectors.  The decline over the summer was all currency.  You might want to go to ZPH-T if the dollar gets down to a $0.80 dollar.  It has not had the down move of ZPW-T.

E.T.F.'s

Writes put options across many sectors.  The decline over the summer was all currency.  You might want to go to ZPH-T if the dollar gets down to a $0.80 dollar.  It has not had the down move of ZPW-T.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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HOLD

The decline over the summer was all currency.  If North Korea escalates, the US$ could shoot up and then you would get an increase in the ETF.

The decline over the summer was all currency.  If North Korea escalates, the US$ could shoot up and then you would get an increase in the ETF.

0
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$19.700
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Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

September 18, 2017

Markets.  Everyone is wanting to buy into dips but the markets keeps grinding higher.  He does not think the valuations are attractive however.  Quantitative tightening could be negative for markets.  It is huge to the markets that Trump brings tax reform.  Perhaps we will get a ‘sell the news’ impact. 

Markets.  Everyone is wanting to buy into dips but the markets keeps grinding higher.  He does not think the valuations are attractive however.  Quantitative tightening could be negative for markets.  It is huge to the markets that Trump brings tax reform.  Perhaps we will get a ‘sell the news’ impact. 

Unknown
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$0.020
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_N/A

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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 5:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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