Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
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General Market Comment 

June 18, 2018

Market.  The Vienna OPEC Meeting:  They could decide to add a million to a million and a half barrels of oil production but they moved it down to a third of that.  OPEC has not been able to NOT CHEAT for a long period of time so he things they can't refrain from 'opening the spigots'.  There has not been a huge investment in oil here for the last few years.  He looks at the forward market.  If we are going to $100 [as another guest predicted] then why is the futures market anchored at $50.  He thinks Trump will make trade wars a little bit worse before making it better.  The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to NAFTA which will perpetuate into next year at this point. 

Market.  The Vienna OPEC Meeting:  They could decide to add a million to a million and a half barrels of oil production but they moved it down to a third of that.  OPEC has not been able to NOT CHEAT for a long period of time so he things they can't refrain from 'opening the spigots'.  There has not been a huge investment in oil here for the last few years.  He looks at the forward market.  If we are going to $100 [as another guest predicted] then why is the futures market anchored at $50.  He thinks Trump will make trade wars a little bit worse before making it better.  The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to NAFTA which will perpetuate into next year at this point. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

June 18, 2018

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin.  It is not sustainable because of the energy consumption.  There are 4 thousand crypto currencies.  Half of a percent of all the electricity in the world today is consumed in making crypto currency.  He thinks eventually governments will control all digital currencies as they can more easily track transactions to tax them.  In the end he feels Bitcoin is worth nothing although it's energy cost is a couple of thousand.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin.  It is not sustainable because of the energy consumption.  There are 4 thousand crypto currencies.  Half of a percent of all the electricity in the world today is consumed in making crypto currency.  He thinks eventually governments will control all digital currencies as they can more easily track transactions to tax them.  In the end he feels Bitcoin is worth nothing although it's energy cost is a couple of thousand.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

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General Market Comment 

June 18, 2018

Interest Rates.  He would recommend a target rate bond fund.  You are diversified across corporate and other bonds.

Interest Rates.  He would recommend a target rate bond fund.  You are diversified across corporate and other bonds.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

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COMMENT
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

June 18, 2018

If you want to replace it, he would look at ZWU-T because it gives you all the Telco's.  It gives you a couple in the US as well as pipelines and utilities.  He is not looking for a lot more downside.  It pays north of 6%.

telephone utilities

If you want to replace it, he would look at ZWU-T because it gives you all the Telco's.  It gives you a couple in the US as well as pipelines and utilities.  He is not looking for a lot more downside.  It pays north of 6%.

telephone utilities
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$54.030
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WATCH

He does not look at the balance sheet, nor does he do single securities.  The 12 months analyst target suggests 10-15% upside on this stock.  At a minimum it has stopped going down. 

Transportation & Environmental Services

He does not look at the balance sheet, nor does he do single securities.  The 12 months analyst target suggests 10-15% upside on this stock.  At a minimum it has stopped going down. 

Transportation & Environmental Services
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$7.300
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N/A

Correction with the trade war.  How to hedge investments at this time.  This is way too difficult to answer in 30 seconds.

indexes

Correction with the trade war.  How to hedge investments at this time.  This is way too difficult to answer in 30 seconds.

indexes
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$12.310
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BUY

ZWH-T & ZPW-T are a defensive strategy but what is the favourite go to strategy for the S&P 500.  VTI-N is the ETF that echoes this strategy. 

E.T.F.'s

ZWH-T & ZPW-T are a defensive strategy but what is the favourite go to strategy for the S&P 500.  VTI-N is the ETF that echoes this strategy. 

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$143.990
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WATCH
Westjet Airlines(WJA-T) 

June 18, 2018

His long term view is very negative on the airline industry.  This industry has had the highest level of bankruptcies.  It is not a great industry to invest in but you could trade it.  He is a trader of airlines.  They did better recently by adjusting for energy prices, but he does not see a bottom in the industry.

Transportation

His long term view is very negative on the airline industry.  This industry has had the highest level of bankruptcies.  It is not a great industry to invest in but you could trade it.  He is a trader of airlines.  They did better recently by adjusting for energy prices, but he does not see a bottom in the industry.

Transportation
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$19.320
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COMMENT

BCE-T Replacment:  If you want to replace it, he would look at ZWU-T because it gives you all the Telco's.  It gives you a couple in the US as well as pipelines and utilities.  He is not looking for a lot more downside.  It pays north of 6%.

E.T.F.'s

BCE-T Replacment:  If you want to replace it, he would look at ZWU-T because it gives you all the Telco's.  It gives you a couple in the US as well as pipelines and utilities.  He is not looking for a lot more downside.  It pays north of 6%.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$12.560
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General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Market.  There has been no shortage of commentary on the G7 summit this morning.  Regarding Trump's comments.  Things have to get worse before they get better.  It is not a good thing.  But ultimately it could lead to better trade deals.  It seems this is what the market is pricing in.  Trump thinks he needs to come out ahead on the trade deals.  Attention is now on North Korea.  This could play out for years and years.  The ECB actions will be more important than those of the Fed.  The ECB has purchased $3.5 billion of Italian bonds in the last three years.

Market.  There has been no shortage of commentary on the G7 summit this morning.  Regarding Trump's comments.  Things have to get worse before they get better.  It is not a good thing.  But ultimately it could lead to better trade deals.  It seems this is what the market is pricing in.  Trump thinks he needs to come out ahead on the trade deals.  Attention is now on North Korea.  This could play out for years and years.  The ECB actions will be more important than those of the Fed.  The ECB has purchased $3.5 billion of Italian bonds in the last three years.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Withholding tax if US ETFs held in an RRIF.  Yes, there is a withholding tax and there is not a whole lot we can do about it.  You need a W8BEN form signed and there might be some tax relief in some cases.

Withholding tax if US ETFs held in an RRIF.  Yes, there is a withholding tax and there is not a whole lot we can do about it.  You need a W8BEN form signed and there might be some tax relief in some cases.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Canada's debt to GDP ratio.  At the federal level it is around 33%.  You have to add in the provincial debt.  As a whole it is around 95% debt to GDP.  The US is over a hundred as is Europe.  Japan is far beyond that.  When the level of debt is the same size as the output of the world, it is like hitting the breaks on growth.  Debt globally is choking and interest rates can't go up much because debt servicing would be astronomical.  We are in a 1 to 3 % growth world.

Canada's debt to GDP ratio.  At the federal level it is around 33%.  You have to add in the provincial debt.  As a whole it is around 95% debt to GDP.  The US is over a hundred as is Europe.  Japan is far beyond that.  When the level of debt is the same size as the output of the world, it is like hitting the breaks on growth.  Debt globally is choking and interest rates can't go up much because debt servicing would be astronomical.  We are in a 1 to 3 % growth world.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Recession in 2019/20?  The yield curve is the best predictor of a recession.  It is inverted within a year of the recession.  The yield curve in question is the 3 year relative to the 10 year.  There is a 10% or less chance of a recession next year.  Equity markets peak about 8-9 months before a recession.  Longer bonds should make you money as the market prices in recession risk.

Recession in 2019/20?  The yield curve is the best predictor of a recession.  It is inverted within a year of the recession.  The yield curve in question is the 3 year relative to the 10 year.  There is a 10% or less chance of a recession next year.  Equity markets peak about 8-9 months before a recession.  Longer bonds should make you money as the market prices in recession risk.

Unknown
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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Russia.  RSX, an ETF, is the main index in Russia.  There are other, broader ETFs that include Russia.  You may want to look at it if oil under performs.

Russia.  RSX, an ETF, is the main index in Russia.  There are other, broader ETFs that include Russia.  You may want to look at it if oil under performs.

Unknown
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General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Educational Segment.  Bond Supply and Unwinding Quantitative Easing.  Part of the equity market anxiety earlier this year was related to volatility.  Inflation pressures are still building.  The Fed is unwinding the balance sheet and the ECB may announce they are doing the same thing later this week.  There is a VIX for everything.  He showed a chart of the VIX on 10 year bonds.  It has been declining for a number of years since 2010.  He thinks we will see bond volatility spike up again but not to the '08/'09 levels.  It will cause anxiety in the equity markets, however.  If we see equity markets weaken after 1 pm today then the supply of bonds will be a problem.  The ECB is probably not going to put net new supply into the market until 2020 but the question is who is going buy the Italian bonds.  He thinks it will be a big problem at some point.  The markets are underplaying the risks.  Corporate balance sheets everywhere are not in good shape.  S&P companies have never been more leveraged compared to revenues before.  There is probably going to be stresses in fixed income and equities as well, and at the same time.  It is not as simple as going into a balanced fund.

Educational Segment.  Bond Supply and Unwinding Quantitative Easing.  Part of the equity market anxiety earlier this year was related to volatility.  Inflation pressures are still building.  The Fed is unwinding the balance sheet and the ECB may announce they are doing the same thing later this week.  There is a VIX for everything.  He showed a chart of the VIX on 10 year bonds.  It has been declining for a number of years since 2010.  He thinks we will see bond volatility spike up again but not to the '08/'09 levels.  It will cause anxiety in the equity markets, however.  If we see equity markets weaken after 1 pm today then the supply of bonds will be a problem.  The ECB is probably not going to put net new supply into the market until 2020 but the question is who is going buy the Italian bonds.  He thinks it will be a big problem at some point.  The markets are underplaying the risks.  Corporate balance sheets everywhere are not in good shape.  S&P companies have never been more leveraged compared to revenues before.  There is probably going to be stresses in fixed income and equities as well, and at the same time.  It is not as simple as going into a balanced fund.

Unknown
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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