Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
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General Market Comment 

February 12, 2018

Market.  Last week was quite challenging.  One of the tests for are we over sold enough for the bottom is the McClelland Oscillator.  We had two lows last year and one this year and they have historically marked bottoms.  We tested the 200 day moving average on Friday and a couple of times it held very nicely.  We have to make higher highs in the future.  If we don’t take out the highs from January over the next couple of months it means the bears are in control.  We can trade the market on the rally.

Market.  Last week was quite challenging.  One of the tests for are we over sold enough for the bottom is the McClelland Oscillator.  We had two lows last year and one this year and they have historically marked bottoms.  We tested the 200 day moving average on Friday and a couple of times it held very nicely.  We have to make higher highs in the future.  If we don’t take out the highs from January over the next couple of months it means the bears are in control.  We can trade the market on the rally.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

February 12, 2018

Balance.  Bonds and stocks have sold off at the same time recently.  Equities have much more volatility than bonds so you need both to reduce overall risk.  How much of each depends on your needs and your tolerance of risks.  Equities may continue to be soft while bonds may rally. 

Balance.  Bonds and stocks have sold off at the same time recently.  Equities have much more volatility than bonds so you need both to reduce overall risk.  How much of each depends on your needs and your tolerance of risks.  Equities may continue to be soft while bonds may rally. 

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 12, 2018

He likes actively managed strategies in the preferreds.  They can go to reset preferreds or to fixed preferreds if there are risks depending on what he thinks interest rates are going to do.

He likes actively managed strategies in the preferreds.  They can go to reset preferreds or to fixed preferreds if there are risks depending on what he thinks interest rates are going to do.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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BUY on WEAKNESS
General Market Comment 

February 12, 2018

Real Return ETF or Rate Rest Preferreds?  Reset prefereds are a good way to play the rising rate environment.  He would be buying these into dips. 

Real Return ETF or Rate Rest Preferreds?  Reset prefereds are a good way to play the rising rate environment.  He would be buying these into dips. 

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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General Market Comment 

February 12, 2018

Educational Segment.  Last week was quit challenging.  The average correction is 5% or more.  It was 13% last week.  We are seeing an oversold condition on the broad market and a bottom.  We tested the 200 day moving average.  It is typically a good buying opportunity when it happens in a rising market.  If we get above the interim high it will go up but if we don’t take out the highs of last month the bears will win out.  He thinks you can trade the market on a rally.

Educational Segment.  Last week was quit challenging.  The average correction is 5% or more.  It was 13% last week.  We are seeing an oversold condition on the broad market and a bottom.  We tested the 200 day moving average.  It is typically a good buying opportunity when it happens in a rising market.  If we get above the interim high it will go up but if we don’t take out the highs of last month the bears will win out.  He thinks you can trade the market on a rally.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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BUY

It is fine but why not go to a diversified source of dividends.  ZWC-T is a basket of the best of the dividends plus a covered call overlay.  You could also go for a foreign ETF but dividends are taxable.

oil/gas

It is fine but why not go to a diversified source of dividends.  ZWC-T is a basket of the best of the dividends plus a covered call overlay.  You could also go for a foreign ETF but dividends are taxable.

oil/gas
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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COMMENT

It is a straight pass-through of distributions.  When an ETF has a fixed distribution that is higher than what is in it, then you are getting some of your own capital in your distribution and the ETF provider could alter it. 

E.T.F.'s

It is a straight pass-through of distributions.  When an ETF has a fixed distribution that is higher than what is in it, then you are getting some of your own capital in your distribution and the ETF provider could alter it. 

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Franco-Nevada Corp.(FNV-T) 

February 12, 2018

If you are bullish on a late cycle it is probably okay to buy on this on a pullback.  He does not like late cycle inflationary plays.  You could buy it for a bounce over the next couple of months, however.  It will not do well if we go into a recession. 

precious metals

If you are bullish on a late cycle it is probably okay to buy on this on a pullback.  He does not like late cycle inflationary plays.  You could buy it for a bounce over the next couple of months, however.  It will not do well if we go into a recession. 

precious metals
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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COMMENT

There are companies with less systemic risk and more global diversification.  They are a bit more sleep-at-night.  The stocks are more interest rate sensitive.  He would be shifting into lower volatility.  Once the market falls 20-25% you should move to full beta exposure.

E.T.F.'s

There are companies with less systemic risk and more global diversification.  They are a bit more sleep-at-night.  The stocks are more interest rate sensitive.  He would be shifting into lower volatility.  Once the market falls 20-25% you should move to full beta exposure.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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BUY

6.49% yield.  You aren’t getting your own money back.  It is dividends plus covered call exposure.

E.T.F.'s

6.49% yield.  You aren’t getting your own money back.  It is dividends plus covered call exposure.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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BUY

You get 6-7% return.  It holds European dividend stocks with a covered call strategy.  The risk is market risk but you can feel fairly safe with this one.  He bought last week during the weakness.

E.T.F.'s

You get 6-7% return.  It holds European dividend stocks with a covered call strategy.  The risk is market risk but you can feel fairly safe with this one.  He bought last week during the weakness.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$20.910
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N/A
General Market Comment 

January 29, 2018

Market.  NAFTA:  He believes they are at 50 out of 2000 pages of the agreement in negotiations.  There may be two more meetings by April.  If they haven’t moved ahead by July 1, when the Mexican elections take place, then he thinks Trump will be giving them 6 months notice to get the deal done and it may be a little bit worse for Canada and Mexico.  He expects Trump in his next state of the union address to stay on script.  This could be a surprise to the markets.  US earnings look very, very good, both from a sales and a bottom line perspective.  The question is how much of this is priced into the markets.

Market.  NAFTA:  He believes they are at 50 out of 2000 pages of the agreement in negotiations.  There may be two more meetings by April.  If they haven’t moved ahead by July 1, when the Mexican elections take place, then he thinks Trump will be giving them 6 months notice to get the deal done and it may be a little bit worse for Canada and Mexico.  He expects Trump in his next state of the union address to stay on script.  This could be a surprise to the markets.  US earnings look very, very good, both from a sales and a bottom line perspective.  The question is how much of this is priced into the markets.

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

January 29, 2018

Canadian REIT Recommendation.  Regardless of which one you use, we are at the high end of valuation in REITs.  He thinks the Canadian sector will start to sell off with rising rates, but the US REIT sector is just starting to become interesting.

Canadian REIT Recommendation.  Regardless of which one you use, we are at the high end of valuation in REITs.  He thinks the Canadian sector will start to sell off with rising rates, but the US REIT sector is just starting to become interesting.

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General Market Comment 

January 29, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Bond Market and Interest Rates.  Bond gurus over the last couple of weeks have come out and said that the bull market for interest rates is over.  It has been 38 years now.  One reason is technology as it advances and reduces the cost of everything.  Society is aging and last year people took more money out of social security than money was put, into it for the first time.  But he does not believe the end of the bond bull market is coming.  He thinks the yield curve will invert by the second half of the year for North America.  This does not support 24 times trailing earnings.  Typically we eventually get a 25-50% correction.

Educational Segment.  The Bond Market and Interest Rates.  Bond gurus over the last couple of weeks have come out and said that the bull market for interest rates is over.  It has been 38 years now.  One reason is technology as it advances and reduces the cost of everything.  Society is aging and last year people took more money out of social security than money was put, into it for the first time.  But he does not believe the end of the bond bull market is coming.  He thinks the yield curve will invert by the second half of the year for North America.  This does not support 24 times trailing earnings.  Typically we eventually get a 25-50% correction.

Unknown
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HOLD

BANK-T vs. ZUB-T.  Exposure to US or International banks.  The yield curve is telling us we are headed toward a recession 6 to 18 months out.  The yield curve is flattening so banks’ net interest margins will not improve.  He does not want to chase them here.

E.T.F.'s

BANK-T vs. ZUB-T.  Exposure to US or International banks.  The yield curve is telling us we are headed toward a recession 6 to 18 months out.  The yield curve is flattening so banks’ net interest margins will not improve.  He does not want to chase them here.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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