Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


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General Market Comment 

April 23, 2018

Market.  The 10 year yield in the US is up to 3%.  Friday the anxiety in the US on the rising yield reduced.  There was a lot of coverage of the yield curve last week.  Everyone is concerned.  Long rates are going to go higher here and the curve will steepen out a little but the question is how high before things grind to a halt in the economy.  We are starting to see some light on that.  When the 10 year yield hit 3.05%, that is the key point and from there it moves to north of 5%, but he does not think we will see that.  We are going to be tested here.  He would want to buy into it rather than fear it.  1000 points could come off the S&P during the next recession.

Market.  The 10 year yield in the US is up to 3%.  Friday the anxiety in the US on the rising yield reduced.  There was a lot of coverage of the yield curve last week.  Everyone is concerned.  Long rates are going to go higher here and the curve will steepen out a little but the question is how high before things grind to a halt in the economy.  We are starting to see some light on that.  When the 10 year yield hit 3.05%, that is the key point and from there it moves to north of 5%, but he does not think we will see that.  We are going to be tested here.  He would want to buy into it rather than fear it.  1000 points could come off the S&P during the next recession.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

April 23, 2018

ETF providers have monthly income funds.  They are an ETF of ETFs.  They are focused on yield and higher dividends.  ZMI-T is an example.  It is 61 basis points cost.  It is global and managed by a portfolio manager. 

ETF providers have monthly income funds.  They are an ETF of ETFs.  They are focused on yield and higher dividends.  ZMI-T is an example.  It is 61 basis points cost.  It is global and managed by a portfolio manager. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

April 23, 2018

Educational Segment.  Digital Currency.  In Sweden in the 1660s they were the first to issue paper currency.  They are likely to be the first in the world to issue crypto currencies – a foreign, crypto backed digital currency.  He thinks central banks will control it.  The demand for paper currency went up after the financial crisis.  Crypto currency solves the problem with negative interest rates. 

Educational Segment.  Digital Currency.  In Sweden in the 1660s they were the first to issue paper currency.  They are likely to be the first in the world to issue crypto currencies – a foreign, crypto backed digital currency.  He thinks central banks will control it.  The demand for paper currency went up after the financial crisis.  Crypto currency solves the problem with negative interest rates. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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WEAK BUY

They generate electivity and sell it.  As we move in this direction this company will have a foothold and niche.  It is a capital intensive business and interest rates rising will be a problem.

electrical utilities

They generate electivity and sell it.  As we move in this direction this company will have a foothold and niche.  It is a capital intensive business and interest rates rising will be a problem.

electrical utilities
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$2.800
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BUY
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

April 23, 2018

He would prefer KRE-N but would have no issue with BAC-N as long as the US economy is in decent shape.

banks

He would prefer KRE-N but would have no issue with BAC-N as long as the US economy is in decent shape.

banks
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$30.320
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No

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BUY

IPL-T or ENF–T.  As a long term hold they are okay.  He would prefer that rather than a single company he would like ZWU-T because you get all the pipelines and telecoms and a covered call overly.  You are very diversified within Canada.  North of a 6% yield.  This is nice as a long term hold.

oil/gas

IPL-T or ENF–T.  As a long term hold they are okay.  He would prefer that rather than a single company he would like ZWU-T because you get all the pipelines and telecoms and a covered call overly.  You are very diversified within Canada.  North of a 6% yield.  This is nice as a long term hold.

oil/gas
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$28.730
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No

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COMMENT

HXH-T vs.  HFH-T.  They have low volumes and low assets.  You don’t have to worry about these.  You have the liquidity of the underlying equities in the ETF.  If you are actively trading then you don’t want wide spreads.  Neither of these are global enough for him.

E.T.F.'s

HXH-T vs.  HFH-T.  They have low volumes and low assets.  You don’t have to worry about these.  You have the liquidity of the underlying equities in the ETF.  If you are actively trading then you don’t want wide spreads.  Neither of these are global enough for him.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$30.920
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Unknown

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BUY
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

April 23, 2018

IPL-T or ENF–T.  As a long term hold they are okay.  He would prefer that rather than a single company he would like ZWU-T because you get all the pipelines and telecoms and a covered call overly.  You are very diversified within Canada.  North of a 6% yield.  This is nice as a long term hold.

oil pipelines

IPL-T or ENF–T.  As a long term hold they are okay.  He would prefer that rather than a single company he would like ZWU-T because you get all the pipelines and telecoms and a covered call overly.  You are very diversified within Canada.  North of a 6% yield.  This is nice as a long term hold.

oil pipelines
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$24.140
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No

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BUY

He would prefer KRE-N but would have no issue with BAC-N as long as the US economy is in decent shape.

E.T.F.'s

He would prefer KRE-N but would have no issue with BAC-N as long as the US economy is in decent shape.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$61.720
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BUY

IPL-T or ENF–T.  As a long term hold they are okay.  He would prefer that rather than a single company he would like ZWU-T because you get all the pipelines and telecoms and a covered call overly.  You are very diversified within Canada.  North of a 6% yield.  This is nice as a long term hold.

E.T.F.'s

IPL-T or ENF–T.  As a long term hold they are okay.  He would prefer that rather than a single company he would like ZWU-T because you get all the pipelines and telecoms and a covered call overly.  You are very diversified within Canada.  North of a 6% yield.  This is nice as a long term hold.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$12.550
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Yes

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N/A
General Market Comment 

April 16, 2018

Market.  Retail sales increased more than expected and is the first gain in 4 months.  There was a big build up in the US late last year as well as a huge draw down in savings.  Tax cuts in Q1 seem to be going to paying down some debt and boosting the savings rate, rather than stimulating the economy, so we are looking at a weak Q1.  XLY-N is more and more dominated by AMSZ-Q, who are going through challenges from the President.  The real metric with banks is the net interest rate margin.  The yield curve has continued to flatten dramatically in the last couple of months and this is not good for banks.  We will see what other sectors say this earnings season.

Market.  Retail sales increased more than expected and is the first gain in 4 months.  There was a big build up in the US late last year as well as a huge draw down in savings.  Tax cuts in Q1 seem to be going to paying down some debt and boosting the savings rate, rather than stimulating the economy, so we are looking at a weak Q1.  XLY-N is more and more dominated by AMSZ-Q, who are going through challenges from the President.  The real metric with banks is the net interest rate margin.  The yield curve has continued to flatten dramatically in the last couple of months and this is not good for banks.  We will see what other sectors say this earnings season.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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N/A
General Market Comment 

April 16, 2018

TFSA.  This is where you should speculate.  You have after tax money going in and the compounding rate of growth is never going to be taxed.  He would focus on growth rather than dividends and more conservative investments.

TFSA.  This is where you should speculate.  You have after tax money going in and the compounding rate of growth is never going to be taxed.  He would focus on growth rather than dividends and more conservative investments.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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N/A
General Market Comment 

April 16, 2018

Educational Segment.  The yield curve.  The bond market is probably our best predictor of economic conditions to come.  Short term rates are coming up because the Fed controls the short term part of the yield curve.  They expect to raise rates more.  They are unwinding the size of their balance sheet and should increase longer term rates, but in recent weeks we have seen more pressure on the front end of the curve but the economic data is coming in weaker and the yield curve is flattening.  The yield curve inverts about 6 months before a recession.  As the Fed raises interest rates even more then we can expect the economy to slow.  We can buy into the dips at present, however.

Educational Segment.  The yield curve.  The bond market is probably our best predictor of economic conditions to come.  Short term rates are coming up because the Fed controls the short term part of the yield curve.  They expect to raise rates more.  They are unwinding the size of their balance sheet and should increase longer term rates, but in recent weeks we have seen more pressure on the front end of the curve but the economic data is coming in weaker and the yield curve is flattening.  The yield curve inverts about 6 months before a recession.  As the Fed raises interest rates even more then we can expect the economy to slow.  We can buy into the dips at present, however.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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DON'T BUY
Bank of Montreal(BMO-T) 

April 16, 2018

TD-T vs. BMO-T.  Canadian banks have been underperforming the US.  There are still some challenges here in Canada, such as less interest rate increases.  The changes in real estate laws are still working through the market place.  He would underweight Canadian banks.

banks

TD-T vs. BMO-T.  Canadian banks have been underperforming the US.  There are still some challenges here in Canada, such as less interest rate increases.  The changes in real estate laws are still working through the market place.  He would underweight Canadian banks.

banks
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$95.170
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No

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SELL ON STRENGTH

The rail sector is very, very cyclical.  If industrials are doing well, then the rails should be doing well.  He thinks 2019/20 is when the next recession hits and the rails will do badly then.  He would avoid the rails a bit.

Transportation

The rail sector is very, very cyclical.  If industrials are doing well, then the rails should be doing well.  He thinks 2019/20 is when the next recession hits and the rails will do badly then.  He would avoid the rails a bit.

Transportation
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$94.740
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Unknown

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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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