Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


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General Market Comment 

July 16, 2018

[Berman's Call today was preempted by breaking news.]

[Berman's Call today was preempted by breaking news.]

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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General Market Comment 

July 9, 2018

Market.  BREXIT.  You are seeing a real risk with Boris Johnson stepping down and there could be a confidence vote with Teresa May's government.  As we get into earnings season this is important.  If the markets can't make new highs, it would be a sign of a bigger top forming.  What's going on in Italy will percolate up also.  He thinks the Fed should wait on a rate hike to see what the trade impact will be.  They have made a move to be less transparent.  They keep the market guessing.  The talk on the street is for a dovish rate hike.  They made say that this is the last rate hike for a while. 

Market.  BREXIT.  You are seeing a real risk with Boris Johnson stepping down and there could be a confidence vote with Teresa May's government.  As we get into earnings season this is important.  If the markets can't make new highs, it would be a sign of a bigger top forming.  What's going on in Italy will percolate up also.  He thinks the Fed should wait on a rate hike to see what the trade impact will be.  They have made a move to be less transparent.  They keep the market guessing.  The talk on the street is for a dovish rate hike.  They made say that this is the last rate hike for a while. 

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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

July 9, 2018

Specific info Larry looks for when deciding to buy, hold or sell.  He looks at time frame for ownership.  He looks out 1-6 months and asks, taking risk into account, what is the expectation.  He looks at company specific risks as well as sector risks, which are more often important, depending on the sector.

Specific info Larry looks for when deciding to buy, hold or sell.  He looks at time frame for ownership.  He looks out 1-6 months and asks, taking risk into account, what is the expectation.  He looks at company specific risks as well as sector risks, which are more often important, depending on the sector.

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Larry Berman CF

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General Market Comment 

July 9, 2018

If you hold US assets in an ETF then if the CAD$ falls, you benefit.  ZBK-T is a basket of banks in the US with no currency hedge.  ZUB-T hedges the currency.  If the CAD$ is going to strengthen you want to hold the ZUB-T and move to ZBK-T if you believe the CAD$ will weaken.

If you hold US assets in an ETF then if the CAD$ falls, you benefit.  ZBK-T is a basket of banks in the US with no currency hedge.  ZUB-T hedges the currency.  If the CAD$ is going to strengthen you want to hold the ZUB-T and move to ZBK-T if you believe the CAD$ will weaken.

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Larry Berman CF

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General Market Comment 

July 9, 2018

Educational Segment.  How to assess revenue and earnings outlook.  The market is going put trade issues in the rear view mirror.  Revenue and earnings growth are going to be spectacular this quarter.  He always likes to look at revenue growth as a qualifier to earnings gains.  Buy-backs boost earnings per share.  About 50% of revenues come from foreign companies so US$ currency is a factor.  Energy, Tech and Materials should be the top sectors for revenue growth during FY 2018 as well as Q2/18.  If the markets don't make new highs over the next 2 to 3 months then the tops are in in the markets.

Educational Segment.  How to assess revenue and earnings outlook.  The market is going put trade issues in the rear view mirror.  Revenue and earnings growth are going to be spectacular this quarter.  He always likes to look at revenue growth as a qualifier to earnings gains.  Buy-backs boost earnings per share.  About 50% of revenues come from foreign companies so US$ currency is a factor.  Energy, Tech and Materials should be the top sectors for revenue growth during FY 2018 as well as Q2/18.  If the markets don't make new highs over the next 2 to 3 months then the tops are in in the markets.

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Larry Berman CF

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DON'T BUY

Health care leaders.  They use option strategies to enhance yield.  As broad markets turned down in '15/16, this index fell and now that things have recovered, it has done so but less than the market.  This is a way to play this space.  It is an active strategy and a fine one if you want exposure to healthcare.

E.T.F.'s

Health care leaders.  They use option strategies to enhance yield.  As broad markets turned down in '15/16, this index fell and now that things have recovered, it has done so but less than the market.  This is a way to play this space.  It is an active strategy and a fine one if you want exposure to healthcare.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$8.280
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

SU-T vs. MFC-T.  As interest rates rise, this is better for insurance companies.  This will cease to be the case if the central banks tighten so much that it sparks a recession.  These companies get hit more during economic downturns.  Insurance companies will not do as well this late in the cycle.

insurance

SU-T vs. MFC-T.  As interest rates rise, this is better for insurance companies.  This will cease to be the case if the central banks tighten so much that it sparks a recession.  These companies get hit more during economic downturns.  Insurance companies will not do as well this late in the cycle.

insurance
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$23.680
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

SU-T vs. MFC-T.  As interest rates rise, this is better for insurance companies.  This will cease to be the case if the central banks tighten so much that it sparks a recession.  These companies get hit more during economic downturns.  Insurance companies will not do as well this late in the cycle.

integrated oils

SU-T vs. MFC-T.  As interest rates rise, this is better for insurance companies.  This will cease to be the case if the central banks tighten so much that it sparks a recession.  These companies get hit more during economic downturns.  Insurance companies will not do as well this late in the cycle.

integrated oils
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$54.010
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

He has been reducing it recently because of relative risk in Canada compared to the rest of the world.  This ETF has the best dividend players in Canada.  There is very low risk of cutting, and they are very likely to grow dividends.  They have a covered call overlay to increase yield.  There is also ZDV-T without the covered call strategy and this will give you more growth rather than yield.

E.T.F.'s

He has been reducing it recently because of relative risk in Canada compared to the rest of the world.  This ETF has the best dividend players in Canada.  There is very low risk of cutting, and they are very likely to grow dividends.  They have a covered call overlay to increase yield.  There is also ZDV-T without the covered call strategy and this will give you more growth rather than yield.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$19.740
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

It is interest rate sensitive.  He likes it and uses it.  It has a distribution north of 6% but the valuation has gone down.  It is a diversified exposure to interest sensitive sectors. 

E.T.F.'s

It is interest rate sensitive.  He likes it and uses it.  It has a distribution north of 6% but the valuation has gone down.  It is a diversified exposure to interest sensitive sectors. 

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$12.830
Owned Owned
Yes

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General Market Comment 

June 25, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Best Market Return Indicator.  The percentage of three asset classes that are part of the household assets.  The value of your real estate, value of your portfolio and all liabilities.  When everyone is in and have a high percentage of their household assets invested in markets, usually for the next 10 years, it is just less than 4% annualized.  We are in a period now where a high percentage of household assets are in the market.  This indicator has a 91% correlation to returns.  This indicates we are late in the cycle.

Educational Segment.  The Best Market Return Indicator.  The percentage of three asset classes that are part of the household assets.  The value of your real estate, value of your portfolio and all liabilities.  When everyone is in and have a high percentage of their household assets invested in markets, usually for the next 10 years, it is just less than 4% annualized.  We are in a period now where a high percentage of household assets are in the market.  This indicator has a 91% correlation to returns.  This indicates we are late in the cycle.

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Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

June 25, 2018

Market.  Over the last couple of weeks we saw trade, trades, trade and today we are down.  We are sitting in the DOW right at the 200 day.  We have not had a close below the 200 day since 2016.  If it closes below there then we will test the 200 day on the S&P and if we break that we look at the lows from April and May to test out the downside.  In Germany there has been pressure within Merkel's party.  If things come apart in Italy it does not look like Germany will write a cheque for it.  The more pressure we have on the US dollar, the more pressure we will have on the financial markets.  Mid-2019 is where he thinks the recession will come.  The market peaks about 8-9 months before a recession is labeled.  By that time the markets are down 29% on average.  The market peak should be early next year.

Market.  Over the last couple of weeks we saw trade, trades, trade and today we are down.  We are sitting in the DOW right at the 200 day.  We have not had a close below the 200 day since 2016.  If it closes below there then we will test the 200 day on the S&P and if we break that we look at the lows from April and May to test out the downside.  In Germany there has been pressure within Merkel's party.  If things come apart in Italy it does not look like Germany will write a cheque for it.  The more pressure we have on the US dollar, the more pressure we will have on the financial markets.  Mid-2019 is where he thinks the recession will come.  The market peaks about 8-9 months before a recession is labeled.  By that time the markets are down 29% on average.  The market peak should be early next year.

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General Market Comment 

June 25, 2018

Vanguard double taxation of some ETFs.  There is a withholding tax for an ETF wrapped within another ETF that also has withholding tax.  He suggests calling Vanguard to discuss it.

Vanguard double taxation of some ETFs.  There is a withholding tax for an ETF wrapped within another ETF that also has withholding tax.  He suggests calling Vanguard to discuss it.

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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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PARTIAL BUY
General Market Comment 

June 25, 2018

Gold and Gold Equities.  It offers a different path of return.  It offers no yield.  He added to gold recently.  He sees a trading range for 6 months. 

Gold and Gold Equities.  It offers a different path of return.  It offers no yield.  He added to gold recently.  He sees a trading range for 6 months. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$0.020
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Yes

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WAIT

He likes convertible bonds.  A company issues it so they don’t have to pay too much yield on the bond by issuing it into the regular market.  You get upside potential with a convertible bond.  He likes it from time to time but not in a rising rate environment.

E.T.F.'s

He likes convertible bonds.  A company issues it so they don’t have to pay too much yield on the bond by issuing it into the regular market.  You get upside potential with a convertible bond.  He likes it from time to time but not in a rising rate environment.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$9.820
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Unknown

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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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