Opinions by Don Vialoux | StockChase
1917
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2004

TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM

http://www.horizonsetfs.com/

1917
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2004

TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM

http://www.horizonsetfs.com/


Opinions by Don Vialoux


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General Market Comment 

November 28, 2017

Market. The great thing about NA equity markets is that between mid-October through until the 1st week in January, the markets go higher. People are in a good mood and are in a buying mood. We are getting close to the end of the year when people are buying all kinds of things, which causes equity markets to move higher. Traditional sectors that move highest during this time are economically sensitive sectors like materials, industrials, technology and consumer discretionary, and have led the market once again, particularly on the technology side. FAANG stocks are what have really driven the market higher. The market is overbought, so what do you do now? You have another 6 weeks until the end of the period of strength is up. Hang in there, but realize we are getting close to the end. There is a whole group of stocks which have not done well this year. Tax loss selling is having a big impact, because things like metals, oils and oil service stocks are way down, relative to where they where at the beginning of the year. A classic year for tax loss selling pressures. That will probably continue for another 2 weeks and then the tax loss selling pressures come off. These are the ones that traditionally move higher between the middle of December through until spring. Be patient now when markets are going higher, but also be patient on buying because tax loss selling pressures are still there, and will be for the next 2-3 weeks.

Market. The great thing about NA equity markets is that between mid-October through until the 1st week in January, the markets go higher. People are in a good mood and are in a buying mood. We are getting close to the end of the year when people are buying all kinds of things, which causes equity markets to move higher. Traditional sectors that move highest during this time are economically sensitive sectors like materials, industrials, technology and consumer discretionary, and have led the market once again, particularly on the technology side. FAANG stocks are what have really driven the market higher. The market is overbought, so what do you do now? You have another 6 weeks until the end of the period of strength is up. Hang in there, but realize we are getting close to the end. There is a whole group of stocks which have not done well this year. Tax loss selling is having a big impact, because things like metals, oils and oil service stocks are way down, relative to where they where at the beginning of the year. A classic year for tax loss selling pressures. That will probably continue for another 2 weeks and then the tax loss selling pressures come off. These are the ones that traditionally move higher between the middle of December through until spring. Be patient now when markets are going higher, but also be patient on buying because tax loss selling pressures are still there, and will be for the next 2-3 weeks.

Unknown
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 28, 2017

Banking ETF? We’ve reached the end of the period of seasonal strength for Canada’s bank stocks. That is normally the end of November, and that’s the time when you want to look elsewhere. The US side is very different. Their period of seasonal strength is from about the beginning of December through until about April.

Banking ETF? We’ve reached the end of the period of seasonal strength for Canada’s bank stocks. That is normally the end of November, and that’s the time when you want to look elsewhere. The US side is very different. Their period of seasonal strength is from about the beginning of December through until about April.

Unknown
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Air Canada(AC-T) 

November 28, 2017

This does very this time of year, when people are doing a lot of flying. Technically, the chart shows this is in a long-term upward trend, recently came down from a high and formed support at around $22. It has resistance at around the $27 level. It has a period of seasonal strength through to the end of December, so stick with it for now.

Transportation

This does very this time of year, when people are doing a lot of flying. Technically, the chart shows this is in a long-term upward trend, recently came down from a high and formed support at around $22. It has resistance at around the $27 level. It has a period of seasonal strength through to the end of December, so stick with it for now.

Transportation
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$24.160
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
HOLD
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

November 28, 2017

Technically it has had a huge gain and just went to an all-time high. There is no indication of it even reaching a peak. Seasonally, stocks like this usually do very well from about mid-October through to the end of the year.

specialty stores

Technically it has had a huge gain and just went to an all-time high. There is no indication of it even reaching a peak. Seasonally, stocks like this usually do very well from about mid-October through to the end of the year.

specialty stores
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$1193.600
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WAIT
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

November 28, 2017

Seasonally this usually does very well in the summer. Technically it is in a trading range, and there is no indication it is about to move above or below that trading range. If it moved above $63.50, that would be very bullish. Below $57 would be quite bearish.

telephone utilities

Seasonally this usually does very well in the summer. Technically it is in a trading range, and there is no indication it is about to move above or below that trading range. If it moved above $63.50, that would be very bullish. Below $57 would be quite bearish.

telephone utilities
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$62.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WAIT
Baytex Energy Corp(BTE-T) 

November 28, 2017

Oil stocks have a very strong seasonality from about mid- January until approximately May of each year. This has not reached its period of seasonal strength yet. It’s drifting lower. You want to see the stock form a base pattern between now and January, which will be the tip that the stock will break out of its downward trend and start to move on the upside.

oil/gas

Oil stocks have a very strong seasonality from about mid- January until approximately May of each year. This has not reached its period of seasonal strength yet. It’s drifting lower. You want to see the stock form a base pattern between now and January, which will be the tip that the stock will break out of its downward trend and start to move on the upside.

oil/gas
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$3.890
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
B2Gold Corp.(BTO-T) 

November 28, 2017

Seasonally, this has a history of bottoming around the 2nd week in December, and moving higher through into March. Every year we get the PDAC conference in Toronto around the beginning of March. A lot of gold guys come in giving lots of good news, and gold stocks have a tendency to peak right around the time of the conference. The chart shows this has already formed a base and triangle pattern. A move above the triangle pattern will tell you that the period of seasonal strength has once again come into force. We are not there yet, but it will probably show up in the next 2 weeks.

Golds

Seasonally, this has a history of bottoming around the 2nd week in December, and moving higher through into March. Every year we get the PDAC conference in Toronto around the beginning of March. A lot of gold guys come in giving lots of good news, and gold stocks have a tendency to peak right around the time of the conference. The chart shows this has already formed a base and triangle pattern. A move above the triangle pattern will tell you that the period of seasonal strength has once again come into force. We are not there yet, but it will probably show up in the next 2 weeks.

Golds
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$3.340
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
CASH(CASH) 

November 28, 2017

(A Top Pick Aug 4/17.) Although you don’t want to put new money into the market right now, there is an opportunity in a couple of weeks, where sectors have sold off because of tax loss selling. There will be opportunities to buy.

N/A

(A Top Pick Aug 4/17.) Although you don’t want to put new money into the market right now, there is an opportunity in a couple of weeks, where sectors have sold off because of tax loss selling. There will be opportunities to buy.

N/A
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$0.010
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
TOP PICK
CASH(CASH) 

November 28, 2017

Be very careful in the next couple of weeks. There’s a lot of tax loss selling pressures happening right now. This will provide the buying opportunity in sectors that have been overly depressed, things like oil services, energy, precious metals.

N/A

Be very careful in the next couple of weeks. There’s a lot of tax loss selling pressures happening right now. This will provide the buying opportunity in sectors that have been overly depressed, things like oil services, energy, precious metals.

N/A
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$0.010
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
HOLD
Cameco Corporation(CCO-T) 

November 28, 2017

The long-term trend has been down until recently, when the stock went from around $10.50 to almost $12. The company reduced the amount of yearly production and the price of uranium in the last 2 weeks has gone up 15%. Seasonality is positive from about November through until May. Technicals have changed dramatically during the last 3 weeks. If you own, stick with it or buy on weakness.

integrated mines

The long-term trend has been down until recently, when the stock went from around $10.50 to almost $12. The company reduced the amount of yearly production and the price of uranium in the last 2 weeks has gone up 15%. Seasonality is positive from about November through until May. Technicals have changed dramatically during the last 3 weeks. If you own, stick with it or buy on weakness.

integrated mines
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$11.570
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
WAIT

The chart is not looking good. Technically it is in a downward trend. What makes it intriguing is that seasonality starts turning positive around the 2nd week in December, and this moves higher as we get early into the new year. The stock is under attack right now from tax loss selling. Watch for opportunities for it to come under a bit of pressure for a buying opportunity, probably within the next 2 to-3 weeks, after forming a nice little base.

entertainment services

The chart is not looking good. Technically it is in a downward trend. What makes it intriguing is that seasonality starts turning positive around the 2nd week in December, and this moves higher as we get early into the new year. The stock is under attack right now from tax loss selling. Watch for opportunities for it to come under a bit of pressure for a buying opportunity, probably within the next 2 to-3 weeks, after forming a nice little base.

entertainment services
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$11.560
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
EnerCare Inc(ECI-T) 

November 28, 2017

He can’t do a reading on the seasonal play, but technically it has had a long-term upward trend. This has been in a trading range for about 8 months. If it moved above the trading range at about $18.50, that would be quite positive, but if it broke below around $17, that would be considered a start of a downward trend.

Consumer Products

He can’t do a reading on the seasonal play, but technically it has had a long-term upward trend. This has been in a trading range for about 8 months. If it moved above the trading range at about $18.50, that would be quite positive, but if it broke below around $17, that would be considered a start of a downward trend.

Consumer Products
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$19.750
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

November 28, 2017

This normally does very well from approximately the middle of January until approximately May of each year. Technically the stock is not looking good. It is in a distinct downward trend. There will probably be some support at around $40. Watch this between now and January, when typically the stock has a nice little upside move.

oil/gas pipelines

This normally does very well from approximately the middle of January until approximately May of each year. Technically the stock is not looking good. It is in a distinct downward trend. There will probably be some support at around $40. Watch this between now and January, when typically the stock has a nice little upside move.

oil/gas pipelines
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$46.460
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
HOLD
CGI Group (A)(GIB.A-T) 

November 28, 2017

Period of seasonal strength is from about mid-October until about the end of January. Technically it has a long-term upward trend. It’s just reached an all-time high.

consulting

Period of seasonal strength is from about mid-October until about the end of January. Technically it has a long-term upward trend. It’s just reached an all-time high.

consulting
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$68.730
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
WATCH
Gilead Sciences Inc.(GILD-Q) 

November 28, 2017

Technically, this has been having a difficult time in the last little while. It has a period of seasonal strength from about mid-December to around April of each year. We are not in the period of seasonal strength yet. It is forming a base pattern. Technically, if it gets above $78 level, that would be a confirmation of the bottoming pattern and that the security is going into its period of seasonal strength.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical

Technically, this has been having a difficult time in the last little while. It has a period of seasonal strength from about mid-December to around April of each year. We are not in the period of seasonal strength yet. It is forming a base pattern. Technically, if it gets above $78 level, that would be a confirmation of the bottoming pattern and that the security is going into its period of seasonal strength.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$72.590
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
Showing 1 to 15 of 1,917 entries
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4 Comments

stevedandy

December 31st 2012 at 10:24am

Love Don Vialoux's analysis of seasonal strength or weakness in regards to stock sectors. The patterns of seasonality that he points out are so interesting.

BeauRegard

January 21st 2015 at 10:58am

Excellent point you make. Excellent stock to own.

Rob B

June 24th 2015 at 1:52pm

If you like palm reading you'll like Don. I think most of the seasonality stuff he makes up as he goes along. His analysis is on seasonality, even he admits has lots of exceptions. Can't figure how he lasted in the industry so long.

BeauRegard

July 7th 2015 at 10:09am

Rob B
He has a kindly face...???
;>)


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