Paul Harris, CFA

Numbers in the US weren't as bad as the market's implying, but they were higher than expected. It was easy bringing inflation down from 8-9% to what it is today, since the supply bottlenecks from Covid have dissipated. 

But the big issue is that the last 1% is going to be difficult because it's due to housing, rent, and services. Much harder to bring down. Market predictions for rate cuts keep going down. Rates should probably stay where they are for some time.

Weird time for the Fed. They have meetings in June, July, September, and November 6-7. November is the US election, so no rate cuts that day. Very short timeframe in which to bring down rates. The 2% inflation target was chosen many years ago by central banks. That was the line in the sand, and they have to stick to it or it will diminish their credibility. 

One more thing. Historical average on rates is around 4%. Rates are not outrageously high; yes, on the short end, but they'll come down over time. Normalization of rates is important for people who are risk-averse, they can put money in GICs today at 5%. They went up the risk curve, into things they shouldn't have been in, and that hurt the average investor. Normalization is healthy for the economy in the long run.

A lot of companies have to raise prices, like the food industry, because they're just not making any money otherwise. There was a long period of time when they couldn't raise prices at all. Those companies may not be gouging, but that's where people feel it the most, so politics has to get involved.

Met expectations, but poor guidance. AI will change how it thinks about its business, but will take a while. Key issue is how to monetize it? At a critical point in incorporating AI. Buy here, as it's shown to execute very well. Regulatory veto, which is hurting all big tech, prevented a favourable acquisition.

One of the better companies in the gold area. Started growing its copper business. Good balance sheet, nice dividend. Companies themselves have to contend with rising expenses. Under pressure to increase production, it's easier to make an acquisition. Geopolitical risk. 

If you like gold, so easy to buy as an ETF and that would be better. 

Good management, executes incredibly well. Shareholder-friendly moves. Ability to make acquisitions in tough times. Oil can creep up from here. Look for a pullback, or buy 1/2 a position now and the rest later. Very stable. Yield close to 4%.

Cybersecurity has become such an important area. Governments around the world are looking as it. Huge investments in coming years at government and corporate levels. Strong secular growth. Need has increased because, since Covid, people no longer work in just one spot.

He owns CHKP instead.

Cybersecurity has become such an important area. Governments around the world are looking as it. Huge investments in coming years at government and corporate levels. Strong secular growth. Need has increased because, since Covid, people no longer work in just one spot.

Will always trade at a discount, as it's a holding company. Difficult environment for some of its businesses. Nice dividend. Will continue to do well. 

Banks in the short term, as they're more interest-rate sensitive. Insurance companies have longer-term liabilities, on which they hedge exposure to interest rates. Lower rates help general asset markets, which insurance companies invest in. Going into financials in a declining interest rate environment is probably what you want to do.

Private equity, has done well. IPO market has been really tough, and higher rates have limited leverage. Good business, good yield. Buys cheap assets, grows them, then sells. Risk is that now many more competitors for assets, so they might overpay to seal a deal.

Depends on price of oil. Why buy foreign? Great oil companies in Canada like CNQ and SU, which do very well. Difficult environment in the face of renewables. Buying back shares, reducing debt, increasing dividend.

Not expensive, trades below book. Nice dividend yield. Very strong wealth management and investment banking. One of the best retail franchises. Well capitalized to increase dividend or buy back shares. Commercial real estate remains a question for all banks, but mainly the regional ones. Though if one segment of banking falls, they all do.

Tough time. Issues on US side with compliance. Transition period, some restructuring needed. First Horizons deal fell apart. Well capitalized. Needs to cut cost structure (layoffs), but it's hard to do.

Hurt in Covid, now doing better and this will continue. Global growth in exchanging cash for plastic and in small business use. Great company. Tons of free cash. Works hard to be on leading edge of technology so it's not overtaken.

Livestock has come back since Covid plus, as people become wealthier, they eat more protein. Pet side is going like gangbusters. Lots of products in pipeline. Incredible run during Covid, now taking a break. Will continue to do well.