Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

POT-T

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Analysis and Opinions about POT-T

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Opinion
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COMMENT
COMMENT
December 12, 2017

The merger with Agrium (AGU-T) has been approved. She owns Agrium and likes the merger/acquisition. Just did an Australian acquisition to expand their presence there. Going forward, this is where they are going to focus on a lot of their growth.

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The merger with Agrium (AGU-T) has been approved. She owns Agrium and likes the merger/acquisition. Just did an Australian acquisition to expand their presence there. Going forward, this is where they are going to focus on a lot of their growth.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 30, 2017

They are merging with AGU-T. There will be $500 Million in synergies. It is the bottom of the cycle for crop nutrients. (Analysts’ target: $24.46).

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They are merging with AGU-T. There will be $500 Million in synergies. It is the bottom of the cycle for crop nutrients. (Analysts’ target: $24.46).

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 23, 2017

This has been depressed and in a narrow range during 2016-2017. A lot of people were long in 2013-2015. We are beginning to digest the overhead supply, but he would like to see better price action first. Right now, he is neutral at best.

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This has been depressed and in a narrow range during 2016-2017. A lot of people were long in 2013-2015. We are beginning to digest the overhead supply, but he would like to see better price action first. Right now, he is neutral at best.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 3, 2017

He doesn't cover this, but does cover Agrium (AGU-T). Thinks the combined entity will bear fruit for shareholders. This is a market that is fairly depressed and will probably turn up over the next several years. It gives you the cost cutting that will create some shareholder value.

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He doesn't cover this, but does cover Agrium (AGU-T). Thinks the combined entity will bear fruit for shareholders. This is a market that is fairly depressed and will probably turn up over the next several years. It gives you the cost cutting that will create some shareholder value.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 6, 2017

He is warming up to agriculture a little. With the merger, this will be the “go to” name in the sector. It is a good fit. He is seeing a bit of a bottom in commodity prices. You are not going to get hurt by owning either Potash (POT-T) or Agrium (AGU-T) right now.

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He is warming up to agriculture a little. With the merger, this will be the “go to” name in the sector. It is a good fit. He is seeing a bit of a bottom in commodity prices. You are not going to get hurt by owning either Potash (POT-T) or Agrium (AGU-T) right now.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 5, 2017

This whole industry needs consolidation. They are going through the strong and painful process of consolidation, and it is going to take time. Eventually this should work. He wouldn’t be in a rush to buy this.

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This whole industry needs consolidation. They are going through the strong and painful process of consolidation, and it is going to take time. Eventually this should work. He wouldn’t be in a rush to buy this.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 7, 2017

The acquisition has been delayed. They are picking a new name. They will have to sell some assets. Canadian and Chinese regulatory authorities have approved the acquisition. It will likely close in late Q4 this year. There will be a lack of competition in the potash industry. There is a lot of supply coming on in it.

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The acquisition has been delayed. They are picking a new name. They will have to sell some assets. Canadian and Chinese regulatory authorities have approved the acquisition. It will likely close in late Q4 this year. There will be a lack of competition in the potash industry. There is a lot of supply coming on in it.

HOLD
HOLD
August 31, 2017

POT-T & AGU-T. AGU-T was a buy and hold when he was last on. It has been kind of bouncing around. He has always liked the retail part. Also, it is global. The Texan floods could impact AGU-T with a psychological effect on investors. POT-T is starting to perk up in the US and they signed a Chinese contract. He would not sell out just because of the merger.

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POT-T & AGU-T. AGU-T was a buy and hold when he was last on. It has been kind of bouncing around. He has always liked the retail part. Also, it is global. The Texan floods could impact AGU-T with a psychological effect on investors. POT-T is starting to perk up in the US and they signed a Chinese contract. He would not sell out just because of the merger.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 28, 2017

POT-T and AGU-T amalgamation. Mid-October is the expected merger date. He thinks it is a positive to have them together. These are such big companies that the market has discounted synergies. You will get a lower yield on POT-T after the merger which some may not like. He sees it net sideways from here. He does not like the fertilizer outlook from here. He would rather miss the first 5-10% to see if it trends up.

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POT-T and AGU-T amalgamation. Mid-October is the expected merger date. He thinks it is a positive to have them together. These are such big companies that the market has discounted synergies. You will get a lower yield on POT-T after the merger which some may not like. He sees it net sideways from here. He does not like the fertilizer outlook from here. He would rather miss the first 5-10% to see if it trends up.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 17, 2017

He was worried about the fertilizer outlook a year ago. He preferred AGU-T because they were partly retail. In a merger you have one vehicle, but a mishmash of lower dividend and more cyclicality. He does not feel any urgency to come back to the sector.

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He was worried about the fertilizer outlook a year ago. He preferred AGU-T because they were partly retail. In a merger you have one vehicle, but a mishmash of lower dividend and more cyclicality. He does not feel any urgency to come back to the sector.

BUY
BUY
August 3, 2017

Thinks it has sort of bottomed here and is heading up, with a little more of a bullish outlook. Supply/demand has been a little bit out of whack for a number of years, but thinks things are tightening up. He likes the merger with Agrium (AGU-T).

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Thinks it has sort of bottomed here and is heading up, with a little more of a bullish outlook. Supply/demand has been a little bit out of whack for a number of years, but thinks things are tightening up. He likes the merger with Agrium (AGU-T).

WAIT
WAIT
July 27, 2017

They are awaiting regulatory approvals on a merger with AGU-T. It is premature to make a judgment as to whether the two companies will see a lot of synergies. It is better to be prudent and not put your chips into it at this time. Wait for the consummation.

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They are awaiting regulatory approvals on a merger with AGU-T. It is premature to make a judgment as to whether the two companies will see a lot of synergies. It is better to be prudent and not put your chips into it at this time. Wait for the consummation.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 27, 2017

About a year ago, Agrium (AGU-T) made an offer to merge. The reason they wanted to merge is to be able to get Potash’s nitrogen business merging with Agrium’s retail business and their nutrients, which will give them the ability to get better prices. Those that own the Potash shares are going to get a pretty good deal, because they are getting strong free cash flow from Agrium. Both stocks have struggled this year because nutrient prices are down.

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About a year ago, Agrium (AGU-T) made an offer to merge. The reason they wanted to merge is to be able to get Potash’s nitrogen business merging with Agrium’s retail business and their nutrients, which will give them the ability to get better prices. Those that own the Potash shares are going to get a pretty good deal, because they are getting strong free cash flow from Agrium. Both stocks have struggled this year because nutrient prices are down.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2017

Thinks the time has passed to get into this. As an ex-Agrium shareholder, he was disappointed on hearing of the merger. With the merger, this is going to blend the companies, and thinks they are going to be more potash weighted. Any of the benefits of this merger are already in the 2 stocks.

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Thinks the time has passed to get into this. As an ex-Agrium shareholder, he was disappointed on hearing of the merger. With the merger, this is going to blend the companies, and thinks they are going to be more potash weighted. Any of the benefits of this merger are already in the 2 stocks.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 22, 2017

(A Top Pick June 16/16. Up 5%.) He sold this when he felt the market was overestimating the price people were going to pay for potash.

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(A Top Pick June 16/16. Up 5%.) He sold this when he felt the market was overestimating the price people were going to pay for potash.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 7, 2017

Potash (POT-T) or Agrium (AGU-T)? Had really liked Agrium because of its diversification. Then he saw that they were going to merge with Potash. To him, the merger takes away a lot of the longer-term merits of Agrium, so he took profits. Not sure he would look at either one.

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Potash (POT-T) or Agrium (AGU-T)? Had really liked Agrium because of its diversification. Then he saw that they were going to merge with Potash. To him, the merger takes away a lot of the longer-term merits of Agrium, so he took profits. Not sure he would look at either one.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 24, 2017

Potash is a really hard commodity to look at. It has a cartel type of mentality. Very dependent on foreign buying. There have been a lot of letdowns with this name. He would steer away from this right now.

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Potash is a really hard commodity to look at. It has a cartel type of mentality. Very dependent on foreign buying. There have been a lot of letdowns with this name. He would steer away from this right now.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 12, 2017

Is the merger with Agrium going to be accretive? The fundamentals are poor for fertilizers, and he continues to be bearish on the sector. Potash is lucky to get them to take them over as the potash industry is facing big expansions, even though more potash is being sold globally.

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Is the merger with Agrium going to be accretive? The fundamentals are poor for fertilizers, and he continues to be bearish on the sector. Potash is lucky to get them to take them over as the potash industry is facing big expansions, even though more potash is being sold globally.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 1, 2017

(A Top Pick June 16/16. Up 11%.) He sold this as he expected potash prices to continue to fall because of overcapacity. Doesn’t expect the growth in potash prices that the company was expecting.

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(A Top Pick June 16/16. Up 11%.) He sold this as he expected potash prices to continue to fall because of overcapacity. Doesn’t expect the growth in potash prices that the company was expecting.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 13, 2017

(A Top Pick, May 5/16. Up 11%.) Sold his holdings because he felt they weren’t executing well. Also, felt that potash prices had to come down a lot more because of the overcapacity.

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(A Top Pick, May 5/16. Up 11%.) Sold his holdings because he felt they weren’t executing well. Also, felt that potash prices had to come down a lot more because of the overcapacity.

HOLD
HOLD
March 24, 2017

They cut the dividend in the last year and a half. If you own a little bit, you hold it. Fertilizer is going to be tough. Close your eyes and just hold it. You will be fine. Buy it with write puts at $21.

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They cut the dividend in the last year and a half. If you own a little bit, you hold it. Fertilizer is going to be tough. Close your eyes and just hold it. You will be fine. Buy it with write puts at $21.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 20, 2017

Potash is an industrial material. You do not want to be invested in industrial material stocks when there is excess capacity. This has plagued the potash market for years. You have time before investing in this one. The dividend has been cut. Dividend yield of 2.3%.

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Potash is an industrial material. You do not want to be invested in industrial material stocks when there is excess capacity. This has plagued the potash market for years. You have time before investing in this one. The dividend has been cut. Dividend yield of 2.3%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2017

Historically, fertilizer stocks have a period of seasonal strength from around October, through to the end of the year. He is not expecting to see much movement to the upside at this time of year. There has been some good news in the last couple of weeks, where it looks like European competition is becoming less competitive, which will be a positive for this company and fertilizer stocks in general. There are better opportunities elsewhere.

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Historically, fertilizer stocks have a period of seasonal strength from around October, through to the end of the year. He is not expecting to see much movement to the upside at this time of year. There has been some good news in the last couple of weeks, where it looks like European competition is becoming less competitive, which will be a positive for this company and fertilizer stocks in general. There are better opportunities elsewhere.

HOLD
HOLD
March 13, 2017

A cyclical company, and is at a cyclical low right now in terms of their ROC. You don’t buy a company when its ROC is at a low, unless you think it is at a bottom. According to his 20-year history, this is at the absolute lowest point. If so, it should be able to go higher, and using normalized returns, is actually worth a little bit more. Thinks you can get the low to mid $20s out of this. Dividend yield of 2.3%.

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A cyclical company, and is at a cyclical low right now in terms of their ROC. You don’t buy a company when its ROC is at a low, unless you think it is at a bottom. According to his 20-year history, this is at the absolute lowest point. If so, it should be able to go higher, and using normalized returns, is actually worth a little bit more. Thinks you can get the low to mid $20s out of this. Dividend yield of 2.3%.

SELL
SELL
March 7, 2017

Not a bad company, it just that you have a market that is oversupplied. You have had supplier discipline going out the window over the last number of years. A good company and there will be a time when you want to have a good position in this, but now is not the time.

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Not a bad company, it just that you have a market that is oversupplied. You have had supplier discipline going out the window over the last number of years. A good company and there will be a time when you want to have a good position in this, but now is not the time.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 3, 2017

In the process of moving into Agrium (AGU-T). He was always relatively negative this company, but always very positive on Agrium. With the combination of the 2, you will end up owning both, which is okay. If this sold off, he would be stepping back in. It’s a good, long term growth sector.

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In the process of moving into Agrium (AGU-T). He was always relatively negative this company, but always very positive on Agrium. With the combination of the 2, you will end up owning both, which is okay. If this sold off, he would be stepping back in. It’s a good, long term growth sector.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 24, 2017

He would consider this as either a Hold or a Sell. The underlying commodity price seems to have stabilized. The stock has dropped over the past couple of years. Profitability has been down. They’ve had a few disappointments. This is one you could own for the longer-term, but right now there is uncertainty as to where the commodity price is going to go.

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He would consider this as either a Hold or a Sell. The underlying commodity price seems to have stabilized. The stock has dropped over the past couple of years. Profitability has been down. They’ve had a few disappointments. This is one you could own for the longer-term, but right now there is uncertainty as to where the commodity price is going to go.

HOLD
HOLD
February 3, 2017

This has not been his favourite for a long time. He has preferred Agrium (AGU-T). Nothing will be better for Potash than Agrium taking over. The merger is good for Potash shareholders.

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This has not been his favourite for a long time. He has preferred Agrium (AGU-T). Nothing will be better for Potash than Agrium taking over. The merger is good for Potash shareholders.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 2, 2017

Supply has not come off in the market. Capacity has to come off to get the commodity rolling. He is not looking at it, preferring the base metals. POT-T has low cost and infinite resources.

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Supply has not come off in the market. Capacity has to come off to get the commodity rolling. He is not looking at it, preferring the base metals. POT-T has low cost and infinite resources.

WAIT
WAIT
January 20, 2017

There is a lot of supply of potash. Demand is not very robust, so he is not very enthusiastic about the commodity. The merger with Agrium (AGU-T) will create a much bigger company, with a decent distribution arm. It will also give them nitrogen. Demand for most of the farm chemical input is not that strong.

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There is a lot of supply of potash. Demand is not very robust, so he is not very enthusiastic about the commodity. The merger with Agrium (AGU-T) will create a much bigger company, with a decent distribution arm. It will also give them nitrogen. Demand for most of the farm chemical input is not that strong.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 19, 2017

(Market Call Minute) We still need a rise in potash prices. It remains a little on the expensive side even combined with AGU-T.

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(Market Call Minute) We still need a rise in potash prices. It remains a little on the expensive side even combined with AGU-T.

WATCH
WATCH
January 5, 2017

It is going to merge with Agrium. He wants to see the balance sheet before making a decision. There are cheaper stocks to buy. His model price is $25.72.

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It is going to merge with Agrium. He wants to see the balance sheet before making a decision. There are cheaper stocks to buy. His model price is $25.72.

HOLD
HOLD
January 3, 2017

Agrium (AGU-T) & Potash (POT-T)? If you hold these already, they are probably good holds. He doesn’t own either. Had thought the outlook for fertilizer was going to be a little weak, so going into a weak cycle for a couple of years they’ll have a tough time. Had always liked the retail side on Agrium, but that is now going to be diluted. He would consider this a Hold from here.

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Agrium (AGU-T) & Potash (POT-T)? If you hold these already, they are probably good holds. He doesn’t own either. Had thought the outlook for fertilizer was going to be a little weak, so going into a weak cycle for a couple of years they’ll have a tough time. Had always liked the retail side on Agrium, but that is now going to be diluted. He would consider this a Hold from here.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 28, 2016

This space has been pretty difficult for the last 3-4 years. Seasonally, it has a strong period that kicks in, in January. You want to see this hold its current line, but look to take profits by the end of January, when the seasonality ends. Then we get into the quite soft February-May period.

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This space has been pretty difficult for the last 3-4 years. Seasonally, it has a strong period that kicks in, in January. You want to see this hold its current line, but look to take profits by the end of January, when the seasonality ends. Then we get into the quite soft February-May period.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
December 13, 2016

Agrium and Potash have gone through a pretty good basing period, and technically have broken out. You could probably own either one. He prefers Agrium, which gives a broader base. Ultimately, they are going to trade in line with each other. They have both pulled back recently, giving you an entry point. You don’t want to be overly focused in this group.

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Agrium and Potash have gone through a pretty good basing period, and technically have broken out. You could probably own either one. He prefers Agrium, which gives a broader base. Ultimately, they are going to trade in line with each other. They have both pulled back recently, giving you an entry point. You don’t want to be overly focused in this group.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 12, 2016

AGU-T vs. POT-T. If you want exposure to the AG space, there are other possibilities. These are commodity related stocks. AGU-T has more retail. They are trying to tie the knot. It looks like a good marriage, but AGU-T holders probably don’t need more commodity exposure. He prefers others.

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