Booking Holdings Inc.

(A Top Pick September 19, 2017. Up 2%). This is one of the most successful companies on the exchange. There are some issues for the company, coming out of its advertising. They are trying to remedy that to get higher margin growth. He thinks the company has a good future.

Booking.com has become the core of the growth of this company. Their main target area is Europe. They have 1.5 million signed up lodgings and book a million bookings a day. (Analysts’ target: $2504.70).

He's long owned this and enjoyed phenomenal success. Booking has 475,000 relationships with hotels worldwide and continues to grow. A strong company.

Owns this name. If it gets above 2,000 it would “vanquish the enemy”. Pattern indicates that it should move higher. Interesting business model. Good name.

Trades at a decent valuation. Only about 35% of travel bookings are done online. People still use travel agents. This is a great emerging market story, because as per capital income rises in emerging markets, you are going to see travel spending increasing significantly.

(A Top Pick Dec 20/16. Up 18%.) Thinks this company can still grow 15% a year for the next few years. It continues to dominate online travel, especially in Europe where it has the most hotel properties of any of its competitors.

Took a pretty severe haircut. This is a high beta stock, which reacts pretty meaningfully both up and down. They said that although they had outperformed and beaten the current quarter’s earning and revenue estimates, the 4^th quarter will not be as strong as what the street was anticipating. They are changing their advertising model slightly. They’ll make $73-$74 per share in 2017, so we are talking $.50 on $74. Next year they will make in the mid-$80 range in EPS. They are growing gross bookings in the mid-20% year-over-year. A very, very well-run company. Online searches travel is still a nascent business. There is a long runway for them.

He really likes Internet retail. This stock pulled back twice to the 150-day moving average this summer. A great business and a good way to participate.

Thinks online travel booking, which is only 25% of the market in Asia right now, is going to be huge, and this company is only one of 2 huge players in the industry right now. It is going to make a lot of money going forward. The stock is down about 10% from where it was and has a wonderful growth profile ahead of it. (Analysts’ price target is $2,100.)

Got a little weak. In early August, it made a new high and then came back down. It has a moving average at around $1735, which would be a base. It would probably line up with the bottoms of the last several months. If buying for new clients today, he would not take a full position. He would rather pay a little more, and wait for it surge to around $1940 to get a full position. A well-run company that is well followed on the street.

This has been one of the best performing stocks in the NYSE’s history. Had owned this about 15 years ago at $19, but the multiple is lower today than it was then. They will make somewhere in the neighbourhood of $78 a share in earnings this year, and may even touch $90 a share next year. They’ve been very acquisitive over their lifespan. (Analysts’ price target is $2,100.)

The PE is 38 times earnings and 22 times forward earnings. The optimal time to buy is September 25^th with a sell date of April 30^th. It should return 23.92% according to seasonal averages. This year it had a gap lower. It had a parabolic rise this year and so you expect that to alleviate. $1728 would be the ideal point to pick it up at.

He likes the space. Online travel has double digit growth and secular trends are good. Valuation has probably got a little stretched. Taking a bit of a hit today as their guidance was a little squishy compared to what people were hoping for. They did beat estimates. This is in a space which is really over-loved, a flag for caution. A well-run company. There will be some volatility.

(A Top Pick June 24/16. Up 60.39%.) This has done an amazing job. It is a poster child for what a network affect is. They have the best hotel listings, they get the most customers, and because they have the most customers booking, they get more hotel listings. The runway for this company is still significant.

A good example of a stock that will benefit from a lot of technology trends of more and more people doing things online. 30% of travel bookings are done online right now, still a relatively low number. The industry is dominated by 2 players, Priceline and Expedia. The estimated P/E of 42X is way too high. Next year’s estimates are closer to 21X, and if you strip out cash, it is actually below 20X. They are going to be able to grow through acquisition, which they’ve done a good job of. (Analysts’ price target is $2040.)

He has 2 different Stop methods, and he is really close to the Trailing Stop. He uses $1791 and $1773, and this is really close to that. The chart shows a nice long upward trend developing.

(A Top Pick March 23/16. Up 44%.) Has been involved with for a long time. Their holding of Booking.Com has been a major home run for them. It was involved in hotel reservations, especially European operations, where there are not a lot of chains, but single owner proprietor hotels, which need exposure.

(Top Pick June 24/16, Up 43%) It’s a very volatile name. It has the best on-line booking platform in the world. They generate great margins. It is growing 20% a year and trading at 20 times earnings, ex cash.

(Top Pick Jan 5/16, Up 36.19%) It has a healthy market share in the travel industry worldwide.

This company has such a huge runway of opportunity. Only 35% of all travel bookings are done online, and the rest are done through travel agents. This company makes most of its money, not in North America, but in Europe and Asia. It only has a 10% market share of online bookings. A fast growing company, 15%-20% revenue growth, and trading at a reasonable valuation. A stock that could benefit from a repatriation of capital, as it has over $10 billion of cash offshore. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $1733.74.)

(A Top Pick Nov 27/15. Up 20.77%.) An online travel company. Their biggest property is Booking.com. They have thousands of properties, many of them in Europe which, isn’t as populated by hotel chains as North America is. They are going to earn high $60 EPS this year, and are going to skip the $70 next year, as the consensus is $80 EPS for 2017.

(A Top Pick Nov 2/15. Up 4.65%.) One of the hallmarks of a good market is that leadership should broaden to new groups. One of the groups that was noticeably absent from the market was consumer discretionary. Early in the fall, the travel and leisure group started to lift. This is a dominant company in the travel business. He would buy this today.

One of the most successful companies on the exchange. It has done extremely well through the years, and continues to do so. An online travel company, and owns booking.com, open table, Kayak. Very, very successful and high growth. Gross bookings rise anywhere from 25% to 30% year-over-year on a quarterly basis. He is looking for about $67 a share in earnings this year, and probably at $80 for next year.

This is getting absolutely decimated today. They get 75% of their revenues from Europe. Their biggest entity is Booking.Com, a wonderful, wonderful company and benefits from the network affect. They have the most hotels and they are smart operators. A beautiful balance sheet that generates gobs of free cash. Unbelievable margins. Anything exposed to Europe right now is getting his head handed to it, but this is a wonderful buying opportunity.

He chose this because of what happened in Belgium in the last couple of days. This always trades off on these terrorists’ events. It is a fact that people will continue to travel, and this company will continue to do well. Trading at about 19X this year and about 18X next year. They have layered on internet options such as Booking.com, OpenTable for dinner reservations, Kayak for flights.

$912 model price, 13% above fair value, but we had two negative transits (two EBV levels), which are sell signals. If it drops below $719, put the full position on there.

80% of returns come from getting to the right market and getting to the sectors within that market that benefits from whatever the secular shift is that is taking place. If our base belief is that the consumer is the ultimate winner, and that the consumer will spend money on experiences, then travel and leisure is a group you want to have a look at. If he had to pick one company in this area, he would probably choose Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL-N), which has been remarkably resilient. Priceline has basically been correcting and consolidating over the last 14-16 months. The stock has pulled back and is into support, and is in the right group. Look for a reversal, but he doesn’t have a problem with this. You want to see revisions on earnings start to move higher.

People want experienced now, not objects. This one has a PE of 15. The 4-digit price scares some people. He thinks it will get to $100 profit per share in the next 3 years. Huge margin business with 70% gross margins.

There are a few Internet retailers that have been doing extremely well, and this is one of them. This is one of those companies that is very top of mind from, originally an obscure new industry, and nailed it. Have done extremely well. They have the branding right, the marketing right and the customer approach right. Trading a little bit rich now for their growth that is on the horizon, so it feels a little bit frothy, but fundamentally there is nothing wrong.

His model price is $936. If the US market got ugly later on, this would be on his list.

Has admired the company tremendously. They are very innovative. This is an example of how technology is transforming whole industries. People that don’t transform in this highly innovative environment are really going to struggle. This is a high multiple stock and has been growing very well. Has totally disrupted the travel industry. He worries that companies like Facebook (FB-Q), Apple (AAPL-Q) and Google (GOOG-Q) are going to increasingly be able to move into these kinds of things, particularly Facebook. Airbnb is also dramatically changing how the travel business works.

A high beta stock, which means it moves the market, so is relatively volatile. If you stay with it long term, it does very well. This is in the Internet space, but in the Internet travel space. They own Booking.com, Kayak and Open Table. Growing gross bookings in the high 20%. This is an opportunity because with the unfortunate events in Paris and terrorism on everybody’s mind, the fear is that travel will be a little more subdued. However, historically, drivers have a great propensity to take on greater risk to get what we want.

This is a funny one. A stock with a big share price which makes people think it is overvalued, but it actually scores really well on valuation. ROE is particularly strong at 30%. It is high in terms of value on PE to EBITDA, but there is no net debt. Has had strong price momentum, even with the recent volatility. They have been a consolidator for their business. From a price line this is one that you can hold here.

The chart, from early 2014 to now, is beginning to look like a cup. A cup is identified by having lower lows followed by higher lows. It looks like it tried to break out, but failed. As a technical person he wouldn’t buy this until it definitively broke the handle, somewhere around $1300. The formation is encouraging, but it is not yet ready to Buy.

This is probably a falling knife at this point. They came out with great earnings, weak guidance, so the stock fell. Not only was the guidance tepid, but anything trouble related is getting hit hard. Give it a few days at least. Overall it is a good company and probably something you can wade back into.

(A Top Pick Nov 3/14. Up 22.61%.) They are going to report on the 9^th and he thinks it will be a good report, especially based on what some of their peers are doing. Expects they will report somewhere around $57 a share for the year. Next year it will probably push $70.

The consumer is strengthening due to low oil prices and the first thing they are doing is spending more money on travel. Online is taking a larger and larger share of the revenue. This one has a dominant position in Europe. It has a growing piece of a pie in a growing market.

(Top Pick Sept. 11/14, Up 8.70%) 70% of revenues are from outside of the US, so it surprises him that it is up.

An online site for booking travel and they have hundreds of thousands of relationships with hotels globally. Last quarter they grew international bookings at 29% year-over-year. It is still growing extremely robustly. Currently trading at about 18X this year’s earnings. He is expecting $65 of earnings per share this year.