AbitibiBowater Inc.

ABH-T

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0.00 (0.00%)
This company is not ACTIVE.

Analysis and Opinions about ABH-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 12, 2009
He owns but thinks he may have made a huge error in holding it. Highly speculative. Huge debt load. Have some debt they have to deal with by the end of this month.
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He owns but thinks he may have made a huge error in holding it. Highly speculative. Huge debt load. Have some debt they have to deal with by the end of this month.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 22, 2008
Huge debt. A lottery ticket. Not for the faint of heart.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
December 22, 2008
Huge debt. A lottery ticket. Not for the faint of heart.
HOLD
HOLD
September 15, 2008
Had averaged down on this one and he was wrong. Would not Buy, as their loss is just too big. He has it as a Hold. Losing $250 million a quarter.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
September 15, 2008
Had averaged down on this one and he was wrong. Would not Buy, as their loss is just too big. He has it as a Hold. Losing $250 million a quarter.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 11, 2008
He has been short this stock on and off since he started his fund. Although he is not short at this moment, it is still in the short camp. Earnings continue to go down because newsprint demand is going down. The slowing economy further accelerates its decline. Strong Cdn$ increases their cost structure.
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He has been short this stock on and off since he started his fund. Although he is not short at this moment, it is still in the short camp. Earnings continue to go down because newsprint demand is going down. The slowing economy further accelerates its decline. Strong Cdn$ increases their cost structure.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 6, 2008
Now closing Canadian plants because of high costs and keeping US plants. Forest products industry has been much more disciplined about bringing on new capacity and closing low capacity. Stock price has been abysmal and some smart investors have been buying lots. If you believe that every commodity will have its day in the sun, wait for it to start moving.
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Now closing Canadian plants because of high costs and keeping US plants. Forest products industry has been much more disciplined about bringing on new capacity and closing low capacity. Stock price has been abysmal and some smart investors have been buying lots. If you believe that every commodity will have its day in the sun, wait for it to start moving.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 10, 2008
All newsprint players have been decimated, specifically those in Canada whose costs are in Cdn$’s. Has BV of about $25 with a terrible balance sheet. If a company can pay its banks when the commodities are low they have massive leverage when commodities improve. Newsprint inventory is down 25%, largest decline in 30 years. It could earn $8 a share and at $17, in 4 years you could be paying 2X earnings. Needs to do more work, but it fascinates him.
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All newsprint players have been decimated, specifically those in Canada whose costs are in Cdn$’s. Has BV of about $25 with a terrible balance sheet. If a company can pay its banks when the commodities are low they have massive leverage when commodities improve. Newsprint inventory is down 25%, largest decline in 30 years. It could earn $8 a share and at $17, in 4 years you could be paying 2X earnings. Needs to do more work, but it fascinates him.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 3, 2007
Trying to turn a corner. Recently announced some closings and cost cutting. The synergies on the merger are starting to build up. Hard to say if it is time to buy the stock yet because the environment is so bad.
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Trying to turn a corner. Recently announced some closings and cost cutting. The synergies on the merger are starting to build up. Hard to say if it is time to buy the stock yet because the environment is so bad.
SELL
SELL
November 20, 2007
All the newspaper companies are hitting 52-week lows and are getting killed by Google. Amalgamation of Abitibi and Bowater were 2 very weak businesses. His model price is $4.31US. Looks like they might lose a mean estimate of $5 for 07 and another $5 for Dec 08..
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
November 20, 2007
All the newspaper companies are hitting 52-week lows and are getting killed by Google. Amalgamation of Abitibi and Bowater were 2 very weak businesses. His model price is $4.31US. Looks like they might lose a mean estimate of $5 for 07 and another $5 for Dec 08..
HOLD
HOLD
October 18, 2007
Owns and has "got our brains blown out" Just moved it from a buy to a hold.
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Owns and has "got our brains blown out" Just moved it from a buy to a hold.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 14, 2007
Looking for the continued merger with Bowater (BOW-N). Stock has been hit hard lately. There will be synergies of about $250 million, but he doesn't like the outlook for the commodities. Not a fan of the sector.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
September 14, 2007
Looking for the continued merger with Bowater (BOW-N). Stock has been hit hard lately. There will be synergies of about $250 million, but he doesn't like the outlook for the commodities. Not a fan of the sector.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 30, 2007
In a bad industry. Demand for newsprint is generally in decline. Global competition is strong. They are about to merge with Bowater (BOW-N), which will give them almost 50% share of the newsprint business. This merger is the only opportunity they have to
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In a bad industry. Demand for newsprint is generally in decline. Global competition is strong. They are about to merge with Bowater (BOW-N), which will give them almost 50% share of the newsprint business. This merger is the only opportunity they have to
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 29, 2007
Would avoid this stock at these levels. Have extremely high debt. Outlook for newsprint is not good and consumption has been declining in North America on a regular basis. Cdn$ is definitely hurting them.
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Would avoid this stock at these levels. Have extremely high debt. Outlook for newsprint is not good and consumption has been declining in North America on a regular basis. Cdn$ is definitely hurting them.
HOLD
HOLD
August 20, 2007
This has had a huge corrective period since last February, so it might be into a bottom here. The MACD is showing a little bit of positive divergence at its low. Don't put new money in, but Hold.
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This has had a huge corrective period since last February, so it might be into a bottom here. The MACD is showing a little bit of positive divergence at its low. Don't put new money in, but Hold.
SELL
SELL
July 24, 2007
Trying to merge with Bowater (BOW-N), but both companies have operating losses.
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Trying to merge with Bowater (BOW-N), but both companies have operating losses.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 25, 2007
Too much debt. Hard to understand how the company operates going forward.
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Too much debt. Hard to understand how the company operates going forward.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 31, 2007
Pulp and Paper is a really beaten up sector, and you should be able to buy the bonds, but they aren't paying high enough esp with the Canadian dollar so high. Pulp and Paper is profitable in Brazil, just not here.
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Pulp and Paper is a really beaten up sector, and you should be able to buy the bonds, but they aren't paying high enough esp with the Canadian dollar so high. Pulp and Paper is profitable in Brazil, just not here.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 18, 2007
Merging with Bowater (BOW-N). Both companies are having a lot of problems and losing money. Merger will do well. It's possible they could go bankrupt, but he is content to continue holding.
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Merging with Bowater (BOW-N). Both companies are having a lot of problems and losing money. Merger will do well. It's possible they could go bankrupt, but he is content to continue holding.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 20, 2007
(A Top Pick Sept 14/06. Up 10%.) Merging with Bowater. It's going to be a long and complicated haul. Still likes.
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(A Top Pick Sept 14/06. Up 10%.) Merging with Bowater. It's going to be a long and complicated haul. Still likes.
BUY
BUY
April 19, 2007
Will be a much stronger company with the merger. There will be adjustments. Has a ways to go before all approvals are in place. Sector is way out of favour, which is why he likes it.
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Will be a much stronger company with the merger. There will be adjustments. Has a ways to go before all approvals are in place. Sector is way out of favour, which is why he likes it.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 13, 2007
Everything is going their way right now, but there is too much risk. Has an enormous amount of debt.
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Everything is going their way right now, but there is too much risk. Has an enormous amount of debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 29, 2007
Merging with Bowater (BOW-N). Tough industry and to survive, they have to get bigger in order to get costs down. We'll have big revenues and potential synergies of about $250 million. Doesn't like the sector.
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Merging with Bowater (BOW-N). Tough industry and to survive, they have to get bigger in order to get costs down. We'll have big revenues and potential synergies of about $250 million. Doesn't like the sector.
SELL
SELL
January 31, 2007
Has had a nice little pop here. Would take the money and run. #1, you've had a tremendous move in a very short period of time, #2 the two companies are going to have to face antitrust issues and #3 newsprint is a lousy business..
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Has had a nice little pop here. Would take the money and run. #1, you've had a tremendous move in a very short period of time, #2 the two companies are going to have to face antitrust issues and #3 newsprint is a lousy business..
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 29, 2007
Proposing to integrate with Bowater (BOW-N). Has been struggling for a long time and has had a heavy debt burden. This may result in a stronger company going forward.
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Proposing to integrate with Bowater (BOW-N). Has been struggling for a long time and has had a heavy debt burden. This may result in a stronger company going forward.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 19, 2007
Very tough industry requiring a lot of capital expenditure for development of plants. Paper/forest industry was a disaster last year. Facing a lot of pressure.
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Very tough industry requiring a lot of capital expenditure for development of plants. Paper/forest industry was a disaster last year. Facing a lot of pressure.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 17, 2007
Made a lower low in December than what it had in August. Looks like it is forming a base. Will it take out the high? If it does, there could be a structure of a bottom forming. There is a possible set up for a technical trade.
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Made a lower low in December than what it had in August. Looks like it is forming a base. Will it take out the high? If it does, there could be a structure of a bottom forming. There is a possible set up for a technical trade.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 28, 2006
Owns the bonds rather than the stocks. Recovery could take longer than you think. Really cheap. It is the one the turn-around investors will start buying because it is the biggest and most liquid.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
December 28, 2006
Owns the bonds rather than the stocks. Recovery could take longer than you think. Really cheap. It is the one the turn-around investors will start buying because it is the biggest and most liquid.
SELL
SELL
December 27, 2006
Forest products is still a difficult place to be. Housing is slowing down. Newsprint is not great.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
December 27, 2006
Forest products is still a difficult place to be. Housing is slowing down. Newsprint is not great.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 22, 2006
The paper market (forestry) is where you should find the bear market (deals) right now. However, the paper market keeps grinding down. Got hit with the rising Canadian dollar, higher electricity costs, etc. which makes him nervous. He can’t see visibility a few years out.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
December 22, 2006
The paper market (forestry) is where you should find the bear market (deals) right now. However, the paper market keeps grinding down. Got hit with the rising Canadian dollar, higher electricity costs, etc. which makes him nervous. He can’t see visibility a few years out.
BUY
BUY
November 27, 2006
Started looking at this. Has a market cap of about $1.2 billion. Have power assets that are generating 544 megawatts which would be worth around $1 billion.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
November 27, 2006
Started looking at this. Has a market cap of about $1.2 billion. Have power assets that are generating 544 megawatts which would be worth around $1 billion.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 23, 2006
A bit of a teaser. Trading at an exceptionally low price. Struggling, but has terrific assets. Canadian dollar is coming down. Speculative. An alternative might be Canfor (CFP-T).
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
November 23, 2006
A bit of a teaser. Trading at an exceptionally low price. Struggling, but has terrific assets. Canadian dollar is coming down. Speculative. An alternative might be Canfor (CFP-T).
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 14, 2006
Crushing debt load. Products are priced in US $’s while it’s costs are in Canadian.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
November 14, 2006
Crushing debt load. Products are priced in US $’s while it’s costs are in Canadian.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
November 2, 2006
Levered to the Cdn$ which has recently lost a lot of bullish momentum. Nice base has formed. It has continually made new bases through the years and then failed. From a trading perspective, if it makes a new low, you’ll have to Stop out. If Cdn$ stabilizes it should be able to get near its October’s highs. Treat as a trade.
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Levered to the Cdn$ which has recently lost a lot of bullish momentum. Nice base has formed. It has continually made new bases through the years and then failed. From a trading perspective, if it makes a new low, you’ll have to Stop out. If Cdn$ stabilizes it should be able to get near its October’s highs. Treat as a trade.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 16, 2006
With the cutbacks in employment in eastern Canada, and the closure of some mills the industry will return to profitability. This would be in 2008 and beyond. That is too far out for him.
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With the cutbacks in employment in eastern Canada, and the closure of some mills the industry will return to profitability. This would be in 2008 and beyond. That is too far out for him.
BUY
BUY
October 6, 2006
Company has problems. Management has overcompensated. Still has a big debt load. If the softwood deal goes through, they’ll be able to pay off some debt. If itt starts to come back, there will be a lot of buyers. Could be some tax loss selling shortly.
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Company has problems. Management has overcompensated. Still has a big debt load. If the softwood deal goes through, they’ll be able to pay off some debt. If itt starts to come back, there will be a lot of buyers. Could be some tax loss selling shortly.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 26, 2006
Doesn't like the pulp and paper industry as there is lots of overcapacity in this sector. Stay away from this stock.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
September 26, 2006
Doesn't like the pulp and paper industry as there is lots of overcapacity in this sector. Stay away from this stock.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 15, 2006
If it is at its 52-week low, there has to be a volume increase on the first up tick and slightly less on the second. Do not add to position on a 52-week low.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
September 15, 2006
If it is at its 52-week low, there has to be a volume increase on the first up tick and slightly less on the second. Do not add to position on a 52-week low.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 14, 2006
This will be one of the survivors in the forest industry. Has been crippled by the tariffs in the US. Will be happy to sit with this one. Have cut down their debt and closed some of their factories. Could be a Buy in tax loss season.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
September 14, 2006
This will be one of the survivors in the forest industry. Has been crippled by the tariffs in the US. Will be happy to sit with this one. Have cut down their debt and closed some of their factories. Could be a Buy in tax loss season.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 13, 2006
Have had a very difficult time and have not been able to make any money. The strong Cdn$ has hurt them. Paper/pulp have been a difficult place to be. Estimates continue to be lower.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
September 13, 2006
Have had a very difficult time and have not been able to make any money. The strong Cdn$ has hurt them. Paper/pulp have been a difficult place to be. Estimates continue to be lower.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 6, 2006
Has been short this stock because the company is losing market share every year and the Cnd$ is strengthening. Also, Brazil can grow trees a lot faster than Canada. Will short again on any bounce.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
September 6, 2006
Has been short this stock because the company is losing market share every year and the Cnd$ is strengthening. Also, Brazil can grow trees a lot faster than Canada. Will short again on any bounce.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 22, 2006
Has huge leverage. Balance sheet is very skewed towards lots of debt. Too speculative.
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Has huge leverage. Balance sheet is very skewed towards lots of debt. Too speculative.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 18, 2006
A number of names in this area look like they are troughing on profitability. It looks like ROE can't get any worse right now. Still exposed to the risk of a higher Canadian$.
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A number of names in this area look like they are troughing on profitability. It looks like ROE can't get any worse right now. Still exposed to the risk of a higher Canadian$.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 27, 2006
Just cut their dividends which should have been done a long time ago. In a tough market. Internet advertising has been growing like crazy.
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Just cut their dividends which should have been done a long time ago. In a tough market. Internet advertising has been growing like crazy.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 13, 2006
Not a fan of the forest product industry. Still has a black cloud over the industry.
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Not a fan of the forest product industry. Still has a black cloud over the industry.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 5, 2006
Internet picks away at newsprint and the economy is going to get slower, not quicker.
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Internet picks away at newsprint and the economy is going to get slower, not quicker.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 27, 2006
He only wants stocks that are going higher in a strong market. This is a weak market and this is one of the weakest stocks. It couldn't get going even when the resource stocks where moving. Expect it will continue to see declining revenue going forward.
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He only wants stocks that are going higher in a strong market. This is a weak market and this is one of the weakest stocks. It couldn't get going even when the resource stocks where moving. Expect it will continue to see declining revenue going forward.
SELL
SELL
June 13, 2006
In a tough business. Newspaper business or lumber in eastern Canada has not been a good place to be. Very highly leveraged.
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In a tough business. Newspaper business or lumber in eastern Canada has not been a good place to be. Very highly leveraged.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 25, 2006
News print statistics showed newsprint usage was down 8%. Newsprint has been very badly affected by the currency.
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News print statistics showed newsprint usage was down 8%. Newsprint has been very badly affected by the currency.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 2, 2006
Dead company walking. They have had a rough ride and he doesn't see it changing anytime soon. The pulp business is a lousy business in the paper business is just as bad.
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Dead company walking. They have had a rough ride and he doesn't see it changing anytime soon. The pulp business is a lousy business in the paper business is just as bad.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 28, 2006
This company has been in such a negative spiral for many years. The news print producers have been shutting down capacity so they are starting to see a recovery in some margins. Not an exciting growth story.
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This company has been in such a negative spiral for many years. The news print producers have been shutting down capacity so they are starting to see a recovery in some margins. Not an exciting growth story.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 1, 2006
The newsprint business is in tough shape and he doesn't think it's coming back. Advertising is going on the Internet. Perhaps the new government will make progress on the softwood lumber dispute.
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The newsprint business is in tough shape and he doesn't think it's coming back. Advertising is going on the Internet. Perhaps the new government will make progress on the softwood lumber dispute.
SELL
SELL
January 18, 2006
Would avoid this one completely. They are a mess and have been for a long time. They do not generate enough free cash flow to cover any of their capital expenditures. Their credit rating is junk status. Dividend was cut.
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Would avoid this one completely. They are a mess and have been for a long time. They do not generate enough free cash flow to cover any of their capital expenditures. Their credit rating is junk status. Dividend was cut.
BUY
BUY
December 20, 2005
Just bought this one. There has been so much capacity reduction that newsprint is now tight. A price increase just went through. Producers are running at about 95% capacity now. They get killed by the US dollar, but their debt is also in US dollars.
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AbitibiBowater Inc. (ABH-T)
December 20, 2005