NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA-Q)

Difficult to determine direction of stock price. Very high quality company, but valuation is high. Chip demand is very high - A.I. demand not slowing down. Does not own stock at this time. Challenge is to determine position of company in 1-2 years (technology changing very quick). 

In two years we think the AI momentum will continue to fuel NVDA. In particular, we think AI spend should continue over this timeframe and NVDA should keep growing at a high rate. In five years, it is of course hard to predict: NVDA will likely continue to grow but the semiconductor industry is cyclical so from a demand perspective there could be a bit of a slowdown. When a company's growth 'decelerates' the stock can take a big hit. Over this timeframe it will depend how NVDA innovates as a company, as well as how the industry evolves. We would expect a higher price over two and five years, skewed though towards two. 
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Shares are correcting, though the company is fundamentally strong. The next report in May will be crucial with more pressure than ever to deliver earnings. Algo funds focus only on share price, so when it moves down like today, those algos accelerate selling.

It's the only company outside Super Micro that's delivering on AI. Also, MSFT. Their May 22 report will be crucial.

Expects a strong report on May 22. It's in correction territory now. But he finds their new partnerships encouraging. 

Likes it. Pundits are calling it the most important stock in the world. Certainly contributes the most to the day-to-day variability in the S&P 500. Makes outsized moves, trading volumes, headlines. It's all about driving innovation in AI race. Undisputed leader. Must-own. Comfortable owning here.

Had a tremendous run, so he took the position size down a little while ago because it got too large. It's one you have to own as a proxy for building the power to build the models for machine learning. A generation ahead of anyone else in chip architecture and software. Expensive, but growing rapidly, deserves the move higher that it's had. Prefers it to AMD.

AMD is a bit of a show-me story. 

He owns lots and just trims his position. Yes other companies could copy its products but at 30 to 40X earnings it is not priced too high. If it reaches $1000 they would be better off to split it. It is a 2 to 3 year hold.

Has held position for over a year. Strength continues in stock. #1 in portfolio. Excellent technology with strong demand. Trend heading in the correct direction. Bringing up other tech stocks in market with it. 

He added more shares after the CEO spoke at a conference. Not a large position and he's still holding significant cash.

It broke $925 and he targets $1,000.

Both are leaders in chips and their packaging. CEOs are cousins, must be something in the water :)  Recently sold AMD, it had a rollover, so looks more attractive. 

NVDA is still fairly evenly priced. 12-month price target of $970. If you ever get the chance, pick up south of $850, and certainly toward $800 would be a great spot. He's much more skewed to this than to AMD.

The top of the Magnificent 7. They announced last night new chips and will move into software. The issue with NVDA is that it's priced for perfection, like doubling earnings this and next year. If something happens (though he doubts it), the stock will tumble. If they deliver, they will have to exceed expectations. Also, it is facing competition as peers work to catch up.