Nova Chemicals Corp.

NCX-T

0.00
0.00 (0.00%)
This company is not ACTIVE.

Analysis and Opinions about NCX-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
SELL
SELL
February 25, 2009
Represented unbelievable value but had near-term risk of default. If you own, you have a risk that the buyer walks. He would take the money is there are a lot of other opportunities.
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Represented unbelievable value but had near-term risk of default. If you own, you have a risk that the buyer walks. He would take the money is there are a lot of other opportunities.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 13, 2009
One of the giants of ethylene production. Very cyclical. Big debt and low pricing problems. Thinks it should be looked at as it may be a fabulous buy for the next cycle.
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One of the giants of ethylene production. Very cyclical. Big debt and low pricing problems. Thinks it should be looked at as it may be a fabulous buy for the next cycle.
HOLD
HOLD
February 3, 2009
Market is very fearful right now that the company is going to go bankrupt. As a big debt load and chemical prices, specifically ethylene, have collapsed. There are strong rumours that the Alberta government might step in. Wouldn't panic and Sell. The prudent thing to do would be to take half off the table.
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Market is very fearful right now that the company is going to go bankrupt. As a big debt load and chemical prices, specifically ethylene, have collapsed. There are strong rumours that the Alberta government might step in. Wouldn't panic and Sell. The prudent thing to do would be to take half off the table.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 6, 2009
A frustrating name. Essentially 2 businesses with polyethylene being good but styrenics has never really paid off. We prefer others.
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A frustrating name. Essentially 2 businesses with polyethylene being good but styrenics has never really paid off. We prefer others.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 30, 2008
Gets tarred with an industrial chemical company. When investors are looking for liquidity they sell anything. Should respond on the upside as the market gets going. Costs are coming down because of lower oil prices.
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Gets tarred with an industrial chemical company. When investors are looking for liquidity they sell anything. Should respond on the upside as the market gets going. Costs are coming down because of lower oil prices.
WAIT
WAIT
October 3, 2008
This is dependant on the commodity cycle. It has more to go on the downside.
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This is dependant on the commodity cycle. It has more to go on the downside.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 9, 2008
Chemical stocks have suffered dramatically along with all things related to commodities. Selling pressure in this one may be over. From a risk/reward perspective you have to pay a lot of attention. When chemical prices turn, they turn with a vengeance.
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Chemical stocks have suffered dramatically along with all things related to commodities. Selling pressure in this one may be over. From a risk/reward perspective you have to pay a lot of attention. When chemical prices turn, they turn with a vengeance.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2008
200 day moving average is currently falling. Broke below it in October of 2007. Not yet ready.
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200 day moving average is currently falling. Broke below it in October of 2007. Not yet ready.
BUY
BUY
June 13, 2008
Compared to their competition they have some sweetheart deals in Alberta for their raw material, mostly natural gas. Looks like it has bottomed for now and the yield is OK.
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Compared to their competition they have some sweetheart deals in Alberta for their raw material, mostly natural gas. Looks like it has bottomed for now and the yield is OK.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2008
(Market Call Minute.) Likes the story very much.
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(Market Call Minute.) Likes the story very much.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 21, 2008
Has been a real disappointment. There has been fabulous performance from virtually every basic material stock in the TSX while this one has lost people money over the last several years. There is a lot more by you than what the share price shows. Could possibly be a takeover at some point.
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Has been a real disappointment. There has been fabulous performance from virtually every basic material stock in the TSX while this one has lost people money over the last several years. There is a lot more by you than what the share price shows. Could possibly be a takeover at some point.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 3, 2008
Has come under a lot of pressure recently. A very difficult business to time properly because of petroleum prices moving around. At this price, it's a name that he would have a look at. He has been thinking about buying it himself. Very volatile. If you own and it got up to the $35/$36 area he would be a seller.
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Has come under a lot of pressure recently. A very difficult business to time properly because of petroleum prices moving around. At this price, it's a name that he would have a look at. He has been thinking about buying it himself. Very volatile. If you own and it got up to the $35/$36 area he would be a seller.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 25, 2008
They use natural gas to make ethylene for producing plastics. They have sold off because all of their products are economically sensitive. Trading at 8X earnings, which is low. If you believe there is going to be a recession, you do not want to own a deep cyclical company such as this.
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They use natural gas to make ethylene for producing plastics. They have sold off because all of their products are economically sensitive. Trading at 8X earnings, which is low. If you believe there is going to be a recession, you do not want to own a deep cyclical company such as this.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 6, 2007
Being impacted a lot by the strong Cdn$. Feedstock and energy prices going forward will be a big worry for them. There is a fairly tight styrene market, but have not been able to pass the increased prices on. An extremely hard company to read.
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Being impacted a lot by the strong Cdn$. Feedstock and energy prices going forward will be a big worry for them. There is a fairly tight styrene market, but have not been able to pass the increased prices on. An extremely hard company to read.
HOLD
HOLD
August 31, 2007
You have to think about the feed stock prices on this. Has some good cost advantages based on their location in Alberta. Earned $2.05 in 06 and is estimated to earn $2.10-$2.15 over the next couple of years.
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You have to think about the feed stock prices on this. Has some good cost advantages based on their location in Alberta. Earned $2.05 in 06 and is estimated to earn $2.10-$2.15 over the next couple of years.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 20, 2007
(A Top Pick Sept 15/06. Down 4%.) Still likes. Surprised it had dropped as far as it did. Thinks it will be okay.
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(A Top Pick Sept 15/06. Down 4%.) Still likes. Surprised it had dropped as far as it did. Thinks it will be okay.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 30, 2007
Seems to be stuck in a trading range and could see a downtrend to its lower support level. Would wait and you may be able to get it a little bit cheaper, hopefully $32-$33 range .
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Seems to be stuck in a trading range and could see a downtrend to its lower support level. Would wait and you may be able to get it a little bit cheaper, hopefully $32-$33 range .
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 29, 2007
(A Top Pick Feb 2/06. Down 13.3%.) Reviewed it after it had fallen about 10% and concluded that assumptions about expanding margins on the ethylene side where wrong. Sold his holdings.
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(A Top Pick Feb 2/06. Down 13.3%.) Reviewed it after it had fallen about 10% and concluded that assumptions about expanding margins on the ethylene side where wrong. Sold his holdings.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 20, 2006
(A Top Pick Sept 15/06. Down 13.4%.) In a sector he would like to be in next year as he is nervous about the market. Likes industrial. Input costs are going down.
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(A Top Pick Sept 15/06. Down 13.4%.) In a sector he would like to be in next year as he is nervous about the market. Likes industrial. Input costs are going down.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 12, 2006
Balance sheet got so over levered so this affected their dividend. Earnings are extremely volatile. Very thin margins. Downside risk.
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Balance sheet got so over levered so this affected their dividend. Earnings are extremely volatile. Very thin margins. Downside risk.
BUY
BUY
October 30, 2006
As an advantage with cheap gas, but had some operational problems at its plants. Good price and you could see some decent upside from this point.
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As an advantage with cheap gas, but had some operational problems at its plants. Good price and you could see some decent upside from this point.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 25, 2006
Trying to fix itself. Chemicals are having a hard time getting any credibility right now.
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Trying to fix itself. Chemicals are having a hard time getting any credibility right now.
SELL
SELL
October 23, 2006
Doesn't like them very much. Being buoyed by cheap natural gas for the moment, but with the slow growth in the US for chemicals, not a good place to be.
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Doesn't like them very much. Being buoyed by cheap natural gas for the moment, but with the slow growth in the US for chemicals, not a good place to be.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 15, 2006
The A, B, C correction is over. We are now into deep support. Doesn't think it will go lower.
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Nova Chemicals Corp. (NCX-T)
September 15, 2006
The A, B, C correction is over. We are now into deep support. Doesn't think it will go lower.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 18, 2006
If you needed to be in this section, this would be better than Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T) but this is not as strong recommendation.
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If you needed to be in this section, this would be better than Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T) but this is not as strong recommendation.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 10, 2006
Their input is natural gas and you would think with the lower prices it would be better for them, but margins got squeezed on the downside. This is a cyclical company that you would start to worry about.
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Their input is natural gas and you would think with the lower prices it would be better for them, but margins got squeezed on the downside. This is a cyclical company that you would start to worry about.
HOLD
HOLD
July 18, 2006
He bought this on the prospects that ethylene and polyethylene prices would increase however, buyers have hesitated in building inventory. He is hoping for a bit of a recovery.
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He bought this on the prospects that ethylene and polyethylene prices would increase however, buyers have hesitated in building inventory. He is hoping for a bit of a recovery.
WATCH
WATCH
June 19, 2006
His model price is $39 and has dropped as earnings estimates have come down. As a positive differential of 26%. Looks interesting, but the fundamental value is eroding with the earnings.
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His model price is $39 and has dropped as earnings estimates have come down. As a positive differential of 26%. Looks interesting, but the fundamental value is eroding with the earnings.
SELL
SELL
June 7, 2006
Thinks we are heading to a point in the cycle where there is downward pressure. US analysts downgraded the chemicals in the US. Feedstock costs are rising.
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Thinks we are heading to a point in the cycle where there is downward pressure. US analysts downgraded the chemicals in the US. Feedstock costs are rising.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 6, 2006
A cyclical company. If you believe that the US is heading into slower times, now is not the time to be in a cyclical chemical company.
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A cyclical company. If you believe that the US is heading into slower times, now is not the time to be in a cyclical chemical company.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 25, 2006
Affected by natural gas which is their biggest input, as well as the price of plastic in the aftermarket. Should be making lots of money right now, as natural gas prices are relatively low. This has a commodity type of risk which you have to be aware of.
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Affected by natural gas which is their biggest input, as well as the price of plastic in the aftermarket. Should be making lots of money right now, as natural gas prices are relatively low. This has a commodity type of risk which you have to be aware of.
BUY
BUY
May 2, 2006
This is commodity sensitive and has been hurt by rising costs. It is right on the long-term support level. It is probably not a bad place to be. Do not let it make a 52-week low.
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This is commodity sensitive and has been hurt by rising costs. It is right on the long-term support level. It is probably not a bad place to be. Do not let it make a 52-week low.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 18, 2006
If natural gas heads back up towards $12/14, the question is how fast can they pass on their costs. Probably not fast enough. On the other hand, if they global boom continues, demand will increase and they have the ability to meet that demand. An unfavourable risk.
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If natural gas heads back up towards $12/14, the question is how fast can they pass on their costs. Probably not fast enough. On the other hand, if they global boom continues, demand will increase and they have the ability to meet that demand. An unfavourable risk.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 5, 2006
A pure play on commodities. You have to be careful. Chart it has pulled back but looking at the long-term chart, is back to its previous lows.
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A pure play on commodities. You have to be careful. Chart it has pulled back but looking at the long-term chart, is back to its previous lows.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 29, 2006
He feels it has to go to $29.60 and would be a big buyer there. Earnings estimates have been coming down and his model price has been coming down although it is still at $45.21. You could buy a small position at this price.
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He feels it has to go to $29.60 and would be a big buyer there. Earnings estimates have been coming down and his model price has been coming down although it is still at $45.21. You could buy a small position at this price.
SELL
SELL
March 28, 2006
It has just broken down through a pattern of lows which has been playing out through the last year. Likes chemical companies, but you don't want to own this one.
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It has just broken down through a pattern of lows which has been playing out through the last year. Likes chemical companies, but you don't want to own this one.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 23, 2006
(A Top Pick Dec 7/05. Down 22%.) Has been a disappointment. Ethylene prices have been firm but buyers have been balking at paying these prices. The company is going to eventually make good money and he is looking for it to recover. This is a good entry point.
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(A Top Pick Dec 7/05. Down 22%.) Has been a disappointment. Ethylene prices have been firm but buyers have been balking at paying these prices. The company is going to eventually make good money and he is looking for it to recover. This is a good entry point.