Amazon.com

AMZN-Q

Two completely different horses. Amazon is more innovative so it could have higher growth, but Microsoft has new upgrades, new contracts and is more stable. He wouldn't own either because FANGS make up about 20% of the index funds, so they will go down more than the others. Would buy half a position and add more depending. On a risk basis, it's too exposed to the overall market.

One of his favourite tech names that well generate a lot of free cash flow into 2021 like Microsoft. They're reinvesting aggressively, pushing into delivery through the Prime program that they're also pushing with success. All tech has come under pressure and there have been allegations of poorly paying their workers; they've raised their minimum wage to $15/hour, but under tough working conditions. Plus, there's regulatory scrutiny over them using data from third-party vendors. But he consider this short-term noise.

AMZN vs MSFT? AMZN is a great company, but he has been out for about 12 months as they are trying to figure out their operating expenses. He will continue to watch it, but there could be some regulatory overhang yet to come -- especially for their web services. MSFT has moved to cloud services, allowing them to seamlessly download software -- a very consistently profitable business -- it makes it almost like a utility.

AMZN vs SHOP? SHOP-T is much more expensive relatively speaking. However, their growth is higher than AMZN-Q. AMZN-Q is probably safer, although it is unclear how they will do in the streaming wars.

A lot of negativity around Amazon isn't specific to Amazon. Rather, the tech companies are coming under scrutiny for anti-trust. He doesn't know how this will play out. He owns Google and MSFT instead, but keep your eye on Amazon, which are so disrupted. Also, their fundamentals keep improving, reinvesting constantly to be disruptive.

Sell Amazon and Apple now? The stock has stagnated the past two years, but it makes more money. Apple keeps investing in near projects, which is a good sign. Hold onto both of them for the long haul. He owns a lot of each.

MSFT vs. Amazon No, they don't compete with each other. Amazon is the best cloud host, but not for small/medium-sized businesses. Instead, MSFT fills this gap very well, at they collect recurring revenue doing this, like a utility. This stabilizes their margins and increases MSFT's growth.

Will the U.S. DOJ break up Amazon and other tech companies? That's a VERY long process. It took 10 years in the case of Microsoft. A complicated process. Is Amazon hurting consumers? No. Consumers are getting cheap goods conveniently. In Amazon's favour, they still make up a small part of the retail landscape. A caveat: a protracted battle against the DOJ could stifle Amazon's growth and distract them from progressing.

Q1 revenue was up 19% year over year, and he models 35% EPS growth. It's multiple is high now at 47x, but but will 26x in 2021. In the next 2-3 years, this continues to go well. Buy this when others fear it.

FANGs? None in the FANG space are good value right now. Amazon has a floor at $1650 and ceiling at $2125 -- with PE ratio of 60. Facebook has given a short term buy signal -- technical support around $187-$189 with 20-25% upside. Nvidia has hit close to full value near $180 -- he might be taking profit on this one soon. Apple had a lousy quarter, but it still beat earnings expectations. He would not touch it here. Google hit resistance the other day -- too expensive as well. Netflix has been up against resistance and unless it can break through he would not touch it. He would only consider Facebook and Amazon as holds or weak buys.