Harley Davidson

HOG-N

NYSE:HOG

35.76
0.25 (0.70%)
Harley-Davidson, Inc., or Harley, is an American motorcycle manufacturer, founded in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in 1903.
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Analysis and Opinions about HOG-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 14, 2016

She likes this. It has had its hiccup’s here and there. They continue to expand and they try new areas. They have put a lot of effort into trying to develop a motorcycle for city use. Motorcycles are going to stay popular, and this one is best of breed. You can’t really go wrong with this.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
October 14, 2016

She likes this. It has had its hiccup’s here and there. They continue to expand and they try new areas. They have put a lot of effort into trying to develop a motorcycle for city use. Motorcycles are going to stay popular, and this one is best of breed. You can’t really go wrong with this.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 30, 2016

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 16.7%.) Sold his holdings in June. Recreational vehicle sales tend to be very highly correlated with employment and household formation, which have both been strong. What really affected them was the US$, as they derive about 25% of their sales from outside of the US, but manufacture everything in the US.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
March 30, 2016

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 16.7%.) Sold his holdings in June. Recreational vehicle sales tend to be very highly correlated with employment and household formation, which have both been strong. What really affected them was the US$, as they derive about 25% of their sales from outside of the US, but manufacture everything in the US.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 9, 2016

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 36.3%.) Got out last July. The issue is not their North American business, but the strength of the US$ and their international exposure, which accounts for about 30% of sales.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
February 9, 2016

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 36.3%.) Got out last July. The issue is not their North American business, but the strength of the US$ and their international exposure, which accounts for about 30% of sales.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 21, 2015

It is interesting and it is an iconic brand. It is cyclical. It has a couple of head winds right now: the currency (US$ appreciation) and there is a demographic trend which is favouring the cheaper smaller bikes. However, they are not in a growth market and are competing for market share with Indian Motorcycle. Feels that there are better places to be.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
August 21, 2015

It is interesting and it is an iconic brand. It is cyclical. It has a couple of head winds right now: the currency (US$ appreciation) and there is a demographic trend which is favouring the cheaper smaller bikes. However, they are not in a growth market and are competing for market share with Indian Motorcycle. Feels that there are better places to be.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 14, 2015

This is a consumer discretionary type of item. You don’t have to have it, it is pure luxury. 70% of revenue comes from the US. The challenge is that the next generation is not as keen on buying a Harley as the previous generation. They need to go through some sort of transformation in terms of creating products that will appeal to the next generation. The stock has done quite well since 2009, and thinks a lot of that was the rebound from the meltdown in the 2008 crisis. He feels there is some downside potential for this company.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
August 14, 2015

This is a consumer discretionary type of item. You don’t have to have it, it is pure luxury. 70% of revenue comes from the US. The challenge is that the next generation is not as keen on buying a Harley as the previous generation. They need to go through some sort of transformation in terms of creating products that will appeal to the next generation. The stock has done quite well since 2009, and thinks a lot of that was the rebound from the meltdown in the 2008 crisis. He feels there is some downside potential for this company.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 19, 2015

Likes it because the valuation is a lot more compelling than it has been. The stock came under pressure with concerns of a higher US weighted dollar. He thinks the concerns are overblown. It is consumer spending and household formation in the US that will drive it. The entry point is very attractive.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
March 19, 2015

Likes it because the valuation is a lot more compelling than it has been. The stock came under pressure with concerns of a higher US weighted dollar. He thinks the concerns are overblown. It is consumer spending and household formation in the US that will drive it. The entry point is very attractive.

WAIT
WAIT
January 19, 2015

Has not been doing that well. Longer term the trend is upwards. It should do well from February to May of each year. Technicals are currently mixed.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
January 19, 2015

Has not been doing that well. Longer term the trend is upwards. It should do well from February to May of each year. Technicals are currently mixed.

BUY
BUY
December 31, 2014

16 times earnings, 1.8% dividend. 70% of sales from US. US sales are highly correlated to the housing market. The stock pulled back a bit because housing growth was flat. They will face some issues with the strong US dollar. They rationalized their expenses, getting rid of some of the workforce. You will do well with it longer term.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
December 31, 2014

16 times earnings, 1.8% dividend. 70% of sales from US. US sales are highly correlated to the housing market. The stock pulled back a bit because housing growth was flat. They will face some issues with the strong US dollar. They rationalized their expenses, getting rid of some of the workforce. You will do well with it longer term.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 16, 2013

(Market Call Minute.) A very discretionary space and she is not interested.

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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
August 16, 2013

(Market Call Minute.) A very discretionary space and she is not interested.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 17, 2010
From a charting perspective, this looks interesting. Fell down to the 200 day moving average and it is important to see if it falls below. From a quantitative perspective, the forward price earnings ratio is 21X earnings and the annualized growth forecast is 9% so it doesn't add up for him. There are a host of names that look like they have much higher growth potential.
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From a charting perspective, this looks interesting. Fell down to the 200 day moving average and it is important to see if it falls below. From a quantitative perspective, the forward price earnings ratio is 21X earnings and the annualized growth forecast is 9% so it doesn't add up for him. There are a host of names that look like they have much higher growth potential.
SELL
SELL
May 5, 2010
European crisis probably won't help, but this is mainly a domestic company. The ultimate discretionary product. Ahead of its earnings.
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European crisis probably won't help, but this is mainly a domestic company. The ultimate discretionary product. Ahead of its earnings.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 10, 2010
Entrance into the Indian market will be a benefit but there are a lot of things going wrong for this company. Sales are down. Demographics are not working in their favour.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
March 10, 2010
Entrance into the Indian market will be a benefit but there are a lot of things going wrong for this company. Sales are down. Demographics are not working in their favour.
SELL
SELL
March 30, 2009
Has been a very well managed company. Great products that consumers want. Discretionary spending is currently weak. Demographically it is the older people buying and with possible pension weaknesses sales could be down. Also, their finance division is not in the best shape.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
March 30, 2009
Has been a very well managed company. Great products that consumers want. Discretionary spending is currently weak. Demographically it is the older people buying and with possible pension weaknesses sales could be down. Also, their finance division is not in the best shape.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 2, 2006
He has a model price of $51.57 which is a 10% negative differential.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
August 2, 2006
He has a model price of $51.57 which is a 10% negative differential.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
April 28, 2005
Model price is $48.62, so it's close to being fully valued. Trades around current price, so could be an OK gamble.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
April 28, 2005
Model price is $48.62, so it's close to being fully valued. Trades around current price, so could be an OK gamble.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2005
Outlook on the automotive sector right now is that it is really bad news. Also expects it to get an awful lot worse. Not an automotive stock, but it is in the transportation sector. Expect its sales and earnings will get hurt along with all the auto companies.
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Outlook on the automotive sector right now is that it is really bad news. Also expects it to get an awful lot worse. Not an automotive stock, but it is in the transportation sector. Expect its sales and earnings will get hurt along with all the auto companies.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 17, 2004
Selling at about 18 X 2005's estimated earnings and growing at about 15%.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
December 17, 2004
Selling at about 18 X 2005's estimated earnings and growing at about 15%.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 11, 2004
Top Short Has some inventory problems. Will not meet their sales growth goals thinking their brand equity will make up for valuations. Consumer discretionary funds are going downhill.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
August 11, 2004
Top Short Has some inventory problems. Will not meet their sales growth goals thinking their brand equity will make up for valuations. Consumer discretionary funds are going downhill.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 30, 2004
Not price or recession sensitive. A global brand.
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Not price or recession sensitive. A global brand.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 15, 2004
18 consecutive years of record revenue and earnings. Has grown its earnings at 20% plus over the last 10 years each year except for one. Trades at 20/25 X.
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18 consecutive years of record revenue and earnings. Has grown its earnings at 20% plus over the last 10 years each year except for one. Trades at 20/25 X.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 9, 2004
Has dropped from a 30 multiple to a 25. Earnings will be better than expected.
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Has dropped from a 30 multiple to a 25. Earnings will be better than expected.
BUY
BUY
October 3, 2003
There has been a lot of hoopla over the 100th anniversary. Have probably built their inventory more then what was required. Long-term, they have a tremendous franchise.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
October 3, 2003
There has been a lot of hoopla over the 100th anniversary. Have probably built their inventory more then what was required. Long-term, they have a tremendous franchise.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 4, 2003
Top Short US consumers in high debt.
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Top Short US consumers in high debt.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 8, 2002
Has been flat to sideways. Could test its low at $35. Don't expect much upside.
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Has been flat to sideways. Could test its low at $35. Don't expect much upside.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 18, 2001
Beat their numbers. Great growth. 2002 will be good, but 2003 will be even better.
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Beat their numbers. Great growth. 2002 will be good, but 2003 will be even better.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 12, 2001
Not sure they can continue getting the trade protection from Japanese imports. Also market slowdown affects sales.
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Harley Davidson (HOG-N)
April 12, 2001
Not sure they can continue getting the trade protection from Japanese imports. Also market slowdown affects sales.
Showing 1 to 26 of 26 entries
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