Hudson Bay Co.

HBC-T

TSE:HBC

10.99
0.00 (0.00%)
The Hudson's Bay Company, commonly referred to as The Bay, is a Canadian retail business group. A fur trading business for much of its existence, HBC now owns and operates retail stores in Canada, the ...
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Analysis and Opinions about HBC-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 5, 2015

(A Top Pick Sept 19/14. Up 31.74%.) Thinks there is a lot left in this. It is misunderstood and people are afraid of it. Has 50% earnings per share growth. Thinks this is a play on the strength of the US consumer. More than half of their business comes from the US, so you have the currency tailwind.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
November 5, 2015

(A Top Pick Sept 19/14. Up 31.74%.) Thinks there is a lot left in this. It is misunderstood and people are afraid of it. Has 50% earnings per share growth. Thinks this is a play on the strength of the US consumer. More than half of their business comes from the US, so you have the currency tailwind.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 3, 2015

Likes both the real estate and the retail side. Richard Baker has transformed the company completely. Has taken it into the US. You are getting better International exposure. It is also a better operator where you are getting the synergies from the operations and are coming in more quickly than expected. Rather than doing a REIT or something with a lower valuation, he is doing a lot of joint ventures directly with outside institutional players. There is probably $40 a share of asset value. Dividend yield of 0.88%.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
November 3, 2015

Likes both the real estate and the retail side. Richard Baker has transformed the company completely. Has taken it into the US. You are getting better International exposure. It is also a better operator where you are getting the synergies from the operations and are coming in more quickly than expected. Rather than doing a REIT or something with a lower valuation, he is doing a lot of joint ventures directly with outside institutional players. There is probably $40 a share of asset value. Dividend yield of 0.88%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 23, 2015

This has become strictly real estate. It is going to be volatile and he doesn’t own it because of that. He would rather own a REIT rather than through a retail company. Trading at 27X estimated earnings which is pretty darn high.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
October 23, 2015

This has become strictly real estate. It is going to be volatile and he doesn’t own it because of that. He would rather own a REIT rather than through a retail company. Trading at 27X estimated earnings which is pretty darn high.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 9, 2015

He is looking at retail AND real estate in this name. The retail assets are effectively free, based on valuation. They have been very strong in putting together US operations. Their cost structure has improved. They moved into Germany and improved costs there. You are getting cheap assets on the dollar. Domestic retail is fine and they are picking up a little market share.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
October 9, 2015

He is looking at retail AND real estate in this name. The retail assets are effectively free, based on valuation. They have been very strong in putting together US operations. Their cost structure has improved. They moved into Germany and improved costs there. You are getting cheap assets on the dollar. Domestic retail is fine and they are picking up a little market share.

BUY
BUY
October 2, 2015

They are buying more stores, partnered with REI.UN and SPG-N in the US. They announced a cost cutting plan recently. They have a much high growth rate than other department stores. He has been buying it and it was a Top Pick last year.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
October 2, 2015

They are buying more stores, partnered with REI.UN and SPG-N in the US. They announced a cost cutting plan recently. They have a much high growth rate than other department stores. He has been buying it and it was a Top Pick last year.

BUY
BUY
September 30, 2015

The chart looks like it has been hit by a car. Support is coming in where resistance used to be. It should go back to the old highs. It looks okay from a technical point of view.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 30, 2015

The chart looks like it has been hit by a car. Support is coming in where resistance used to be. It should go back to the old highs. It looks okay from a technical point of view.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 29, 2015

They cut a number of jobs today, mostly in Saks/Fifth Avenue. It has a lot of moving parts. It is retail and real estate. The shares are trading at a 40% discount to what he thinks the shares are worth. They have not announced the debt financing for their German acquisition. There should be expanding margins going forwards.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 29, 2015

They cut a number of jobs today, mostly in Saks/Fifth Avenue. It has a lot of moving parts. It is retail and real estate. The shares are trading at a 40% discount to what he thinks the shares are worth. They have not announced the debt financing for their German acquisition. There should be expanding margins going forwards.

BUY
BUY
September 10, 2015

This could be an interesting play going forward. It popped mostly on real estate news. They made an acquisition that extended their operations into Europe.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 10, 2015

This could be an interesting play going forward. It popped mostly on real estate news. They made an acquisition that extended their operations into Europe.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 10, 2015

This has been doing a lot of very exciting things. They have Saks and some very interesting real estate plays, which makes it interesting in the short term. However, there are much better names to be buying.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 10, 2015

This has been doing a lot of very exciting things. They have Saks and some very interesting real estate plays, which makes it interesting in the short term. However, there are much better names to be buying.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 8, 2015

(He Shorts this one.) This has poor valuation and low ROE. His view is that the price has been supported by the possibility of them doing a REIT spin out of their real estate assets. Expensive on a PE basis. Trading at 13X EBITDA.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 8, 2015

(He Shorts this one.) This has poor valuation and low ROE. His view is that the price has been supported by the possibility of them doing a REIT spin out of their real estate assets. Expensive on a PE basis. Trading at 13X EBITDA.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 3, 2015

(A Top Pick Nov 6/14. Up 15.84%.) His primary reason for this was its real estate assets. But people shouldn’t take away from the fact that they actually have made a lot of progress in the retail side. They turned around the Canadian operations significantly. Their US and German businesses are pretty good. Thinks there is a lot of upside yet.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 3, 2015

(A Top Pick Nov 6/14. Up 15.84%.) His primary reason for this was its real estate assets. But people shouldn’t take away from the fact that they actually have made a lot of progress in the retail side. They turned around the Canadian operations significantly. Their US and German businesses are pretty good. Thinks there is a lot of upside yet.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2015

Thinks there is still more upside on this. The story has played out better than he had expected. It has always been about surfacing the value of their real estate. Richard Baker has a tremendous eye for value in real estate and a very clever way of thinking about surfacing that value. The stock works its way through the $30s-$40 two years out would be a reasonable level.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
August 5, 2015

Thinks there is still more upside on this. The story has played out better than he had expected. It has always been about surfacing the value of their real estate. Richard Baker has a tremendous eye for value in real estate and a very clever way of thinking about surfacing that value. The stock works its way through the $30s-$40 two years out would be a reasonable level.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 29, 2015

Doing great things to their stores, and it is increasing sales. Thinks the situation in Germany is very similar to what they had in Toronto. A few flagship stores with great property values that they have spun into a joint venture that they are really going to fix up and hopefully turn around sales. Also, have online strategies that they are going to focus on. Really the value is in the real estate. He calculates the NAV of around $35, and it is trading at a 25% discount to that. Yield of 0.75%.

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Doing great things to their stores, and it is increasing sales. Thinks the situation in Germany is very similar to what they had in Toronto. A few flagship stores with great property values that they have spun into a joint venture that they are really going to fix up and hopefully turn around sales. Also, have online strategies that they are going to focus on. Really the value is in the real estate. He calculates the NAV of around $35, and it is trading at a 25% discount to that. Yield of 0.75%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 22, 2015

They acquired a German company, and then sold off the real estate for basically the purchase price. He thinks management has been brilliant. They are now introducing some of the Saks stores into the Hudson Bay as well. It ranks in the 1st quartile of his Safety/Value strategy.

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They acquired a German company, and then sold off the real estate for basically the purchase price. He thinks management has been brilliant. They are now introducing some of the Saks stores into the Hudson Bay as well. It ranks in the 1st quartile of his Safety/Value strategy.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 30, 2015

This is flying high on its retail sales. Richard Baker is an extremely clever property/retail store man in the US. Has remade this company as a flagship of a new kind, which has just bought into Germany in competition with an Austriatn buyer. Dividend yield of 0.72%.

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This is flying high on its retail sales. Richard Baker is an extremely clever property/retail store man in the US. Has remade this company as a flagship of a new kind, which has just bought into Germany in competition with an Austriatn buyer. Dividend yield of 0.72%.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 12, 2015

(A Top Pick July 22/14. Up 41.45%.) His thesis was that you are buying a retailer’s operations with improvement and reinvesting in the business. Always felt there was a lot of value in their real estate and that they were going to do something with it. They are looking at a department store in Germany that also has a big real estate holding. Something to keep an eye on for the future.

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(A Top Pick July 22/14. Up 41.45%.) His thesis was that you are buying a retailer’s operations with improvement and reinvesting in the business. Always felt there was a lot of value in their real estate and that they were going to do something with it. They are looking at a department store in Germany that also has a big real estate holding. Something to keep an eye on for the future.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 11, 2015

(Market Call Minute) It hit one of his technical resistance points. It does not look interesting to him.

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(Market Call Minute) It hit one of his technical resistance points. It does not look interesting to him.

WAIT
WAIT
June 5, 2015

The uptrend from mid-2014 has been broken this year. He easily sees higher highs and higher lows. Chart shows a former low being taken out, so this looks a little dangerous. He would probably let this play out to see if it could find some support before buying.

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The uptrend from mid-2014 has been broken this year. He easily sees higher highs and higher lows. Chart shows a former low being taken out, so this looks a little dangerous. He would probably let this play out to see if it could find some support before buying.

SELL
SELL
June 2, 2015

This is a company that is always going through some interesting transitions. The Canadian retail sector is going through some very tough times, as our economy is somewhat sluggish. That is the largest driver for this company. He doesn’t see a lot of upside in the near future and it might be a time to say goodbye.

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This is a company that is always going through some interesting transitions. The Canadian retail sector is going through some very tough times, as our economy is somewhat sluggish. That is the largest driver for this company. He doesn’t see a lot of upside in the near future and it might be a time to say goodbye.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2015

This has gone through quite a few permutations for the last few years. It doesn’t have a well defined seasonal trend. Technically it has been an upward trend since mid-2014, but seems to be peaking out from the middle of April, and is now starting to move to the downside. It could come down to its previous support level of around $21.

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This has gone through quite a few permutations for the last few years. It doesn’t have a well defined seasonal trend. Technically it has been an upward trend since mid-2014, but seems to be peaking out from the middle of April, and is now starting to move to the downside. It could come down to its previous support level of around $21.

BUY
BUY
April 23, 2015

Thinks it is on the 5th inning stretch. Has a $36 target on it and it is going to get there. They are gaining strength in retail and on line, margins are improving. 63% of their earnings come from the US, so they have that FX tailwind. They are plugged into a better consumer in the US with better oil prices. He sees 22% dividend growth and 46% earnings per share growth over the next couple of years.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
April 23, 2015

Thinks it is on the 5th inning stretch. Has a $36 target on it and it is going to get there. They are gaining strength in retail and on line, margins are improving. 63% of their earnings come from the US, so they have that FX tailwind. They are plugged into a better consumer in the US with better oil prices. He sees 22% dividend growth and 46% earnings per share growth over the next couple of years.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 25, 2015

They have tremendous real estate in every city across the country. You add to that what Saks had and he feels it is a tremendously undervalued company. It is run by someone who is a real estate guy who is really good at surfacing value from real estate.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
March 25, 2015

They have tremendous real estate in every city across the country. You add to that what Saks had and he feels it is a tremendously undervalued company. It is run by someone who is a real estate guy who is really good at surfacing value from real estate.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 2, 2015

A retail company, but have been making all their money by monetizing their real estate. She prefers their US properties. Good real estate name. There is more upside.

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A retail company, but have been making all their money by monetizing their real estate. She prefers their US properties. Good real estate name. There is more upside.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 30, 2015

One reason he likes this is the real estate play, but the big reason is that 63% of their business mix comes from the US. He thinks you will benefit from a stronger US consumer and lower oil. They report in Cdn$, so are going to benefit from the US dollar exposure. Have been doing well in Q3 on their top line growth, bottom line growth and margins. Yield of 0.85%.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 30, 2015

One reason he likes this is the real estate play, but the big reason is that 63% of their business mix comes from the US. He thinks you will benefit from a stronger US consumer and lower oil. They report in Cdn$, so are going to benefit from the US dollar exposure. Have been doing well in Q3 on their top line growth, bottom line growth and margins. Yield of 0.85%.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 7, 2015

This did extremely well over the last year. Had quite a remarkable turnaround in terms of managing to get their sales up. Relative to a lot of other major retailers, their sales per square foot are still quite a bit less. The profitability of the company is something that concerns him. A lot of people have bought in on the momentum on the turnaround. They have more sales, but he is not sure that the margin that those sales are generating will have proportionately greater profits. Multiples are high currently.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 7, 2015

This did extremely well over the last year. Had quite a remarkable turnaround in terms of managing to get their sales up. Relative to a lot of other major retailers, their sales per square foot are still quite a bit less. The profitability of the company is something that concerns him. A lot of people have bought in on the momentum on the turnaround. They have more sales, but he is not sure that the margin that those sales are generating will have proportionately greater profits. Multiples are high currently.

SELL
SELL
December 10, 2014

He has been amazed at the pop this stock has had. From a fundamental perspective, he has a lot of concerns about the company. They are basically just levering the balance sheet up. For those who have been in this for the last 6 months, good for you. You have made some good money. If he owned, he would Sell it here. This is a company with not great fundamentals. It is just re-setting of the pieces of the puzzle to make it look like it is more valuable than it was 6 months ago.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 10, 2014

He has been amazed at the pop this stock has had. From a fundamental perspective, he has a lot of concerns about the company. They are basically just levering the balance sheet up. For those who have been in this for the last 6 months, good for you. You have made some good money. If he owned, he would Sell it here. This is a company with not great fundamentals. It is just re-setting of the pieces of the puzzle to make it look like it is more valuable than it was 6 months ago.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 9, 2014

Has benefited really well from a low growth environment. All retailers have done really well in a falling Cdn$ environment, which typically doesn’t happen. This company, (because of real estate assets and by turning into a REIT), is going up, but is not worth $24 in his opinion. He would not be in this.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 9, 2014

Has benefited really well from a low growth environment. All retailers have done really well in a falling Cdn$ environment, which typically doesn’t happen. This company, (because of real estate assets and by turning into a REIT), is going up, but is not worth $24 in his opinion. He would not be in this.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 6, 2014

Thinks they will spin some of the real estate out into a REIT and may sell the best properties directly, leasing them back. The retail operation is only trading at 4 times. The retail operations are actually improving. The outlook is pretty good. There are some catalysts coming in the next 6-12 months with what they will do with these real estate assets.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
November 6, 2014

Thinks they will spin some of the real estate out into a REIT and may sell the best properties directly, leasing them back. The retail operation is only trading at 4 times. The retail operations are actually improving. The outlook is pretty good. There are some catalysts coming in the next 6-12 months with what they will do with these real estate assets.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 19, 2014

Sees this as a way for Canadian investors to benefit from improving US retail. 63% of their business mix is now levered to the US through Saks, Lord & Taylor and Off Fifth. He is modelling 43% revenue growth from merger synergies and higher margins over the next couple of years. The kicker here is that management has said they are going to do something with their real estate between now and next spring. There is a good chance of a growing retailer that is trading at a good level on a PEG ratio basis along with the real estate upside.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 19, 2014

Sees this as a way for Canadian investors to benefit from improving US retail. 63% of their business mix is now levered to the US through Saks, Lord & Taylor and Off Fifth. He is modelling 43% revenue growth from merger synergies and higher margins over the next couple of years. The kicker here is that management has said they are going to do something with their real estate between now and next spring. There is a good chance of a growing retailer that is trading at a good level on a PEG ratio basis along with the real estate upside.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 17, 2014

Continues to be a very interesting situation. With the backing of a pension fund, they bought Saks. So far that story has been about financial engineering and unlocking value that was there and about the REIT spin out that is probably coming at the end of this year or early next year. If you hold it through the REIT spin out, what do you do? If you continue to hold, you have to be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that this is going to be a good retail, it was a very bold, ambitious plan to unroll Saks out into the Canadian marketplace. She expects this will be successful.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 17, 2014

Continues to be a very interesting situation. With the backing of a pension fund, they bought Saks. So far that story has been about financial engineering and unlocking value that was there and about the REIT spin out that is probably coming at the end of this year or early next year. If you hold it through the REIT spin out, what do you do? If you continue to hold, you have to be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that this is going to be a good retail, it was a very bold, ambitious plan to unroll Saks out into the Canadian marketplace. She expects this will be successful.

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