Hudson Bay Co.

HBC-T

TSE:HBC

10.99
0.00 (0.00%)
The Hudson's Bay Company, commonly referred to as The Bay, is a Canadian retail business group. A fur trading business for much of its existence, HBC now owns and operates retail stores in Canada, the ...
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Analysis and Opinions about HBC-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 7, 2017

Retailing has changed. The proportion of people buying online is skyrocketing every year. This company has issues with foot traffic into their stores. Oddly enough, the Macy’s deal looks quite interesting. It is an opportunity for this company to acquire a retailer with partners on the real estate side, and it can be structured in a way that they don’t actually pay much for retail operations. He doesn’t know enough about Macy’s to say that it is a retailer that they need to own. He would look elsewhere on the retail side.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
February 7, 2017

Retailing has changed. The proportion of people buying online is skyrocketing every year. This company has issues with foot traffic into their stores. Oddly enough, the Macy’s deal looks quite interesting. It is an opportunity for this company to acquire a retailer with partners on the real estate side, and it can be structured in a way that they don’t actually pay much for retail operations. He doesn’t know enough about Macy’s to say that it is a retailer that they need to own. He would look elsewhere on the retail side.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 31, 2017

He is concerned about the retail sector and the secular trends of increased penetration from e-commerce. The company has somewhat recognized that and are trying to get ahead of the curve, so have spent a lot of money in getting best in class warehousing and distribution logistics. The issue remains on how profitable the retail entity is going to be 3-5 years from now, as e-commerce penetration continues to increase. There is definitely latent real estate value, but how much is a real estate actually worth if the tenant is no longer a going concern or is less of a going concern.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 31, 2017

He is concerned about the retail sector and the secular trends of increased penetration from e-commerce. The company has somewhat recognized that and are trying to get ahead of the curve, so have spent a lot of money in getting best in class warehousing and distribution logistics. The issue remains on how profitable the retail entity is going to be 3-5 years from now, as e-commerce penetration continues to increase. There is definitely latent real estate value, but how much is a real estate actually worth if the tenant is no longer a going concern or is less of a going concern.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 26, 2017

Just bought some for speculative accounts. 4th quarter earnings were not great. You have a business, and then you have another game with real estate. Right now, he would reckon that the shares are trading at about a 40%-45% discount to the real estate value. It is getting to the point were something has to happen. He wouldn’t be surprised if they did some IPOs. This isn’t a long-term Hold, and if you can get a trade out of it, great.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 26, 2017

Just bought some for speculative accounts. 4th quarter earnings were not great. You have a business, and then you have another game with real estate. Right now, he would reckon that the shares are trading at about a 40%-45% discount to the real estate value. It is getting to the point were something has to happen. He wouldn’t be surprised if they did some IPOs. This isn’t a long-term Hold, and if you can get a trade out of it, great.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
January 19, 2017

The stock is trading at about a 40% discount to its value. It has never traded that low. The problem is that the earnings forecasts have collapsed and are falling into negative ground. There is nothing to assign a value to when doing an analysis. The quality has slipped on the balance sheet. We should not lose site of the fact that they have some really interesting real estate holdings. He thinks IFRS accounting would apply a much higher value to their holdings. There could be a lot there from a net worth point of view.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 19, 2017

The stock is trading at about a 40% discount to its value. It has never traded that low. The problem is that the earnings forecasts have collapsed and are falling into negative ground. There is nothing to assign a value to when doing an analysis. The quality has slipped on the balance sheet. We should not lose site of the fact that they have some really interesting real estate holdings. He thinks IFRS accounting would apply a much higher value to their holdings. There could be a lot there from a net worth point of view.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 18, 2017

This has been really disappointing. The real estate value was $24, then $19, and now $17. His company’s target is now $14. These things happen from time to time. If you own 20 stocks, every 10 years one of them is going to face problems like this. When that happens, you have to make 2 decisions. Do you have to get out or is it something you can live with? This company is doing so many things right with their retail, and growing their global operations and with their online. However, they are fighting a huge trend right now, and all department stores are suffering. With these kind of extreme fears, and it’s almost always overdone, there will be a brighter day. This has probably overshot to the downside.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 18, 2017

This has been really disappointing. The real estate value was $24, then $19, and now $17. His company’s target is now $14. These things happen from time to time. If you own 20 stocks, every 10 years one of them is going to face problems like this. When that happens, you have to make 2 decisions. Do you have to get out or is it something you can live with? This company is doing so many things right with their retail, and growing their global operations and with their online. However, they are fighting a huge trend right now, and all department stores are suffering. With these kind of extreme fears, and it’s almost always overdone, there will be a brighter day. This has probably overshot to the downside.

HOLD
HOLD
January 16, 2017

He has been short for about 18 months until the last few days. He does not like to be short stocks that have fallen a lot over a short period of time. There is no question you should hold this stock for yield. They have negative free cash flow, however. They could always sell their real estate, but they warned for the second time. Some major stock holder has exited their position. They have some very valuable assets: Saks, the building, for example. He is waiting to see if they do anything because of their low stock price.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 16, 2017

He has been short for about 18 months until the last few days. He does not like to be short stocks that have fallen a lot over a short period of time. There is no question you should hold this stock for yield. They have negative free cash flow, however. They could always sell their real estate, but they warned for the second time. Some major stock holder has exited their position. They have some very valuable assets: Saks, the building, for example. He is waiting to see if they do anything because of their low stock price.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 12, 2017

Consumer discretionary is not an area he wants to be overweight in. HBC-T had a good run and good pull back. He wonders what the prospects are to generate cash flow, despite Saks and new brands they have aquired. A US consumer is in far better shape than a Canadian consumer. A lot of volume has moved on to on-line purchases. The ability to reinvest and to get people out there is so much more challenging. This is a value trap. Department stores are in a long term cyclical decline.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 12, 2017

Consumer discretionary is not an area he wants to be overweight in. HBC-T had a good run and good pull back. He wonders what the prospects are to generate cash flow, despite Saks and new brands they have aquired. A US consumer is in far better shape than a Canadian consumer. A lot of volume has moved on to on-line purchases. The ability to reinvest and to get people out there is so much more challenging. This is a value trap. Department stores are in a long term cyclical decline.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 12, 2017

This hasn’t been able to get anything going. Valuation looked compelling, but it turned out to be a bit of a value trap. They have fantastic real estate, but if retail sales are going into a secular decline, which seems to be happening because of Amazon (AMZN-Q), what is the real estate actually worth. They’ve loaded up their balance sheet with debt. They have attractive assets, but at what price can they sell those assets at. Wait for a bit of a turnaround or a catalyst.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 12, 2017

This hasn’t been able to get anything going. Valuation looked compelling, but it turned out to be a bit of a value trap. They have fantastic real estate, but if retail sales are going into a secular decline, which seems to be happening because of Amazon (AMZN-Q), what is the real estate actually worth. They’ve loaded up their balance sheet with debt. They have attractive assets, but at what price can they sell those assets at. Wait for a bit of a turnaround or a catalyst.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2017

He doesn’t do his shopping online and he still sees people going to the malls. His data also tells him that. Many of the companies he checks can be brick and mortar, and many of them are still doing very well. This company’s acquisition of Saks Fifth Avenue blew his mind. It hasn’t quite paid off yet. ROC is kind of low, but thinks the management team is pretty aggressive, and can turn it around.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 6, 2017

He doesn’t do his shopping online and he still sees people going to the malls. His data also tells him that. Many of the companies he checks can be brick and mortar, and many of them are still doing very well. This company’s acquisition of Saks Fifth Avenue blew his mind. It hasn’t quite paid off yet. ROC is kind of low, but thinks the management team is pretty aggressive, and can turn it around.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 5, 2017

Pays a small dividend, but not attractive enough for him. A value play if you believe the consolidation of the companies they bought are successful and they are able to spin out their real estate.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 5, 2017

Pays a small dividend, but not attractive enough for him. A value play if you believe the consolidation of the companies they bought are successful and they are able to spin out their real estate.

HOLD
HOLD
January 3, 2017

This looks statistically cheap, but it looks like a value trap. The real estate alone is $25 a share, and yet this trades at $13. The market is essentially saying that the retail side will never make any money and is in fact a negative, and it is unwilling to detach the real estate from the retail. At $13, management will probably not let it linger here, but will probably do something, possibly splitting out some of the real estate.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
January 3, 2017

This looks statistically cheap, but it looks like a value trap. The real estate alone is $25 a share, and yet this trades at $13. The market is essentially saying that the retail side will never make any money and is in fact a negative, and it is unwilling to detach the real estate from the retail. At $13, management will probably not let it linger here, but will probably do something, possibly splitting out some of the real estate.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 30, 2016

Doesn’t really like these kinds of stocks. Retail is very tough. They’ve done a great job with their stores. Amazon (AMZ-Q) is doing a great job of taking away their business. Thinks people own this for the real estate.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 30, 2016

Doesn’t really like these kinds of stocks. Retail is very tough. They’ve done a great job with their stores. Amazon (AMZ-Q) is doing a great job of taking away their business. Thinks people own this for the real estate.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 23, 2016

(A Top Pick Dec 7/15. Down 37.02%.) He is holding this basically for the real estate value. The retail operations seemed to have done all right, and he thinks there is further growth ahead.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 23, 2016

(A Top Pick Dec 7/15. Down 37.02%.) He is holding this basically for the real estate value. The retail operations seemed to have done all right, and he thinks there is further growth ahead.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 23, 2016

If you take a normal REIT value for department store REITs, and apply it to their real estate operations, you’ll probably get a value north of $20, maybe $25 a share. You are paying less than nothing for the retail operation. He likes what they have done with the Bay since 2007. They bought Saks, turning it around. Thinks Galeria Kaufhof is going to be a stronger operation. Even moving Bay stores into a place like Belgian was a smart idea. Trading at a huge, huge discount to its NAV. Dividend yield of 1.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $20.75.)

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 23, 2016

If you take a normal REIT value for department store REITs, and apply it to their real estate operations, you’ll probably get a value north of $20, maybe $25 a share. You are paying less than nothing for the retail operation. He likes what they have done with the Bay since 2007. They bought Saks, turning it around. Thinks Galeria Kaufhof is going to be a stronger operation. Even moving Bay stores into a place like Belgian was a smart idea. Trading at a huge, huge discount to its NAV. Dividend yield of 1.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $20.75.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2016

This looks cheap and has come down a long way. What he is trying to get a fix on is how much real estate do they really own. Is there any underlying value in there, to back up what he sees as a weak and very competitive and very margin expansion resistance retail world. They are caught on the side of being bricks and mortar, at a time when Internet is really taking away a lot of market share.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 21, 2016

This looks cheap and has come down a long way. What he is trying to get a fix on is how much real estate do they really own. Is there any underlying value in there, to back up what he sees as a weak and very competitive and very margin expansion resistance retail world. They are caught on the side of being bricks and mortar, at a time when Internet is really taking away a lot of market share.

SELL
SELL
December 20, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) This is not a name he would buy for his clients. Sales are nowhere to be seen. The real estate may be worth a lot more, but at the end of the day, it doesn’t seem to want to unlock it.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 20, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) This is not a name he would buy for his clients. Sales are nowhere to be seen. The real estate may be worth a lot more, but at the end of the day, it doesn’t seem to want to unlock it.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 8, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Good real estate, but not so good retail. He would stay away.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 8, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Good real estate, but not so good retail. He would stay away.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 1, 2016

Can they compete with Nordstrom (JWN-N)? It falls on Nordstrom to prove that they can compete. Hudson’s Bay has had a sharp earnings fall off, and the stock remains quite a bit above its FMV. He would not be invested in this company.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 1, 2016

Can they compete with Nordstrom (JWN-N)? It falls on Nordstrom to prove that they can compete. Hudson’s Bay has had a sharp earnings fall off, and the stock remains quite a bit above its FMV. He would not be invested in this company.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 1, 2016

A cheap stock and they are doing everything they can. Have made a lot of acquisitions and now owns Saks. They’ve expanded in the US. They are trying to focus on the higher end consumer, as opposed to being stuck in the middle and facing competition from the Walmart’s etc. A very, very difficult business and is obviously in secular decline.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
December 1, 2016

A cheap stock and they are doing everything they can. Have made a lot of acquisitions and now owns Saks. They’ve expanded in the US. They are trying to focus on the higher end consumer, as opposed to being stuck in the middle and facing competition from the Walmart’s etc. A very, very difficult business and is obviously in secular decline.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 28, 2016

The company is excellent, but it is a retailer. It had a big bump a couple of years ago, largely on the fact that it was seen as a very savvy real estate play. This has gone down over the last little while. It is going to be harder to see the pull-through from Saks in Canada. It is very, very hard in a bricks and mortar business, although this is one of the better operators out there. He would avoid this right now.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
November 28, 2016

The company is excellent, but it is a retailer. It had a big bump a couple of years ago, largely on the fact that it was seen as a very savvy real estate play. This has gone down over the last little while. It is going to be harder to see the pull-through from Saks in Canada. It is very, very hard in a bricks and mortar business, although this is one of the better operators out there. He would avoid this right now.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 24, 2016

Has been surprised at how successful this company has been in being able to grow, make acquisitions such as Saks as well as European acquisitions. This, to him, adds risk to the situation, the further away you get from home. Also, the retail sector is always a pretty precarious place to be, because of Amazon (AMZ-Q) and the like.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
November 24, 2016

Has been surprised at how successful this company has been in being able to grow, make acquisitions such as Saks as well as European acquisitions. This, to him, adds risk to the situation, the further away you get from home. Also, the retail sector is always a pretty precarious place to be, because of Amazon (AMZ-Q) and the like.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 16, 2016

(A Top Pick Nov 3/15. Down 35.3%.) Had bought this because it is a pretty massive discount to the real estate value. Still thinks there is probably $30 of value in the company when you combine the retail and real estate. The expansion into Germany looks like it is doing well.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
November 16, 2016

(A Top Pick Nov 3/15. Down 35.3%.) Had bought this because it is a pretty massive discount to the real estate value. Still thinks there is probably $30 of value in the company when you combine the retail and real estate. The expansion into Germany looks like it is doing well.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 13, 2016

This just seems to have disappointment baked in. It goes up and it goes down, but at the end of the day, if you are a trader you can make money. A lot of people buy on-line now. Not a fan.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
October 13, 2016

This just seems to have disappointment baked in. It goes up and it goes down, but at the end of the day, if you are a trader you can make money. A lot of people buy on-line now. Not a fan.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 12, 2016

(Top Pick Oct 9/15, Down 31.49%) He thinks there is easily $20 worth of real estate per share in the company. But it is priced so you get the real estate effectively for free. What they did with Saks and others are all great ideas. They are better retailers than they get credit for. He is staying with it.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
October 12, 2016

(Top Pick Oct 9/15, Down 31.49%) He thinks there is easily $20 worth of real estate per share in the company. But it is priced so you get the real estate effectively for free. What they did with Saks and others are all great ideas. They are better retailers than they get credit for. He is staying with it.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 5, 2016

Canadian Department stores have massive competition from specialty retailers and the Internet. This company is being as competitive as anyone in the big department store space, but are still vulnerable to specialty stores in the Internet. (See Top Picks.)

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
October 5, 2016

Canadian Department stores have massive competition from specialty retailers and the Internet. This company is being as competitive as anyone in the big department store space, but are still vulnerable to specialty stores in the Internet. (See Top Picks.)

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 23, 2016

(A Top Pick Nov 5/15. Down 22.92%.) Chose this for its real estate upside, because it was becoming a global retailer developing a very good online presence and the low Cdn$ as most of their operations are outside of Canada. A tough company to value, because there are so many different moving parts. He believes they are doing all the right things and that patience will be rewarded.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
September 23, 2016

(A Top Pick Nov 5/15. Down 22.92%.) Chose this for its real estate upside, because it was becoming a global retailer developing a very good online presence and the low Cdn$ as most of their operations are outside of Canada. A tough company to value, because there are so many different moving parts. He believes they are doing all the right things and that patience will be rewarded.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 23, 2016

(A Top Pick July 29/15. Down 30.49%.) A disappointment for him. Has been out of this for a while. Had been optimistic about the push into Germany, but things in Europe fell apart very quickly. He loves their business model in buying an asset, taking the real estate, and spending it off in JVs. That makes a lot of sense. However, when you have retail sales declining globally, along with the US$ pressure, that started him questioning what the properties were worth.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
August 23, 2016

(A Top Pick July 29/15. Down 30.49%.) A disappointment for him. Has been out of this for a while. Had been optimistic about the push into Germany, but things in Europe fell apart very quickly. He loves their business model in buying an asset, taking the real estate, and spending it off in JVs. That makes a lot of sense. However, when you have retail sales declining globally, along with the US$ pressure, that started him questioning what the properties were worth.

SELL
SELL
August 11, 2016

(Market Call Minute) The earnings and fair market value are dropping.

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Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)
August 11, 2016

(Market Call Minute) The earnings and fair market value are dropping.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2016

This company can’t get out of its own way. Department stores have been weak over the past year. Although this company has done pretty well in Canada, and has done well in Germany, their US operations have not been good. It has been very tough to value year-over-year. His sum of the parts valuation is $26.05, and he thinks this number is probably conservative. Excellent management. If you are patient, he thinks you will be rewarded.

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This company can’t get out of its own way. Department stores have been weak over the past year. Although this company has done pretty well in Canada, and has done well in Germany, their US operations have not been good. It has been very tough to value year-over-year. His sum of the parts valuation is $26.05, and he thinks this number is probably conservative. Excellent management. If you are patient, he thinks you will be rewarded.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 26, 2016

This stock has an overhead supply of stock ownership, that seems to be in the high teens, so the upside for the stock is limited. Retail is a tough spot, especially with online sales. It is a very nebulous environment, and is a tough going for the old world, old fashion business.

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This stock has an overhead supply of stock ownership, that seems to be in the high teens, so the upside for the stock is limited. Retail is a tough spot, especially with online sales. It is a very nebulous environment, and is a tough going for the old world, old fashion business.

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