AuRico Gold Inc

AUQ-T

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Analysis and Opinions about AUQ-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 17, 2015

In the midst of merging with Alamos Gold (AGI-T). It has been a troubled mine developer and a good example of why he doesn’t invest in mine developers. The balance sheet just deteriorates and they had to cut their dividend. Alamos brings a strong balance sheet and the ability to take Young-Davidson mine over the finish line and fully develop it. They will continue to drain cash out of the company as that asset ramps up. Doesn’t see a whole lot of free cash flow coming out of the company in 2016-2017, which is the main reason he is not there.

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In the midst of merging with Alamos Gold (AGI-T). It has been a troubled mine developer and a good example of why he doesn’t invest in mine developers. The balance sheet just deteriorates and they had to cut their dividend. Alamos brings a strong balance sheet and the ability to take Young-Davidson mine over the finish line and fully develop it. They will continue to drain cash out of the company as that asset ramps up. Doesn’t see a whole lot of free cash flow coming out of the company in 2016-2017, which is the main reason he is not there.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 12, 2014

(See comments under Gold.) The only problem he has with this is that it may be a sector laggard. He would prefer gold stocks that are out performers in the sector. He wouldn’t add to this one, but would pick another stock instead.

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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
August 12, 2014

(See comments under Gold.) The only problem he has with this is that it may be a sector laggard. He would prefer gold stocks that are out performers in the sector. He wouldn’t add to this one, but would pick another stock instead.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2014

One of the most impressive underground mines he has ever been to. Have haulage systems, automation, which is incredible. Was skeptical last year they would be able to get tonnage up to their target. They have beaten all their target levels. Doing a really good job. Underground reserve grade is about 2.7 grams per ton, which for an open pit would be spectacular, so this is one of the lower grades for an underground mine.

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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
August 5, 2014

One of the most impressive underground mines he has ever been to. Have haulage systems, automation, which is incredible. Was skeptical last year they would be able to get tonnage up to their target. They have beaten all their target levels. Doing a really good job. Underground reserve grade is about 2.7 grams per ton, which for an open pit would be spectacular, so this is one of the lower grades for an underground mine.

WATCH
WATCH
March 25, 2014

Paid a lot of money in terms of dividends when they sold one of their Mexican projects recently. Their marquee asset is now the Young-Davidson mine and is one of the best underground mines that he has seen developed in the last decade. He is a bit cautious on the grade which is about 2.74 g per ton, which is fairly low grade for an underground mine. Wants to watch how they ramp up production before getting back in. When a mistake is made or there is a problem, high grades will cover mistakes whereas low grades margins are already potentially tight.

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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
March 25, 2014

Paid a lot of money in terms of dividends when they sold one of their Mexican projects recently. Their marquee asset is now the Young-Davidson mine and is one of the best underground mines that he has seen developed in the last decade. He is a bit cautious on the grade which is about 2.74 g per ton, which is fairly low grade for an underground mine. Wants to watch how they ramp up production before getting back in. When a mistake is made or there is a problem, high grades will cover mistakes whereas low grades margins are already potentially tight.

BUY
BUY
March 3, 2014

Gold is a trade right now. Likes this one and would recommend it, although these are not cheap any more.

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Gold is a trade right now. Likes this one and would recommend it, although these are not cheap any more.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 3, 2014

Predominantly in Ontario. Have a Mexican asset. A lot of the cash flow has to get re-invested to ramp up project in Ontario. He has bought it on weakness in the past.

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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
February 3, 2014

Predominantly in Ontario. Have a Mexican asset. A lot of the cash flow has to get re-invested to ramp up project in Ontario. He has bought it on weakness in the past.

WATCH
WATCH
June 10, 2013

Have done a pretty good job. Instituted a dividend. Mining from underground and testing new equipment over the next 6 months. He prefers to keep a watch at this time. Buy below $3.50

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Have done a pretty good job. Instituted a dividend. Mining from underground and testing new equipment over the next 6 months. He prefers to keep a watch at this time. Buy below $3.50

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 7, 2013

Likes the range of assets.

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Likes the range of assets.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 5, 2013

Likes this but doesn’t own. Sees many, many names in the gold space that are cheaper.

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Likes this but doesn’t own. Sees many, many names in the gold space that are cheaper.

BUY
BUY
December 28, 2012

Had been Short this because he thought they were going to have a capital shortfall in the summer. However, they were able to sell an asset so the stock had a nice rebound. Looks pretty attractive here.

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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
December 28, 2012

Had been Short this because he thought they were going to have a capital shortfall in the summer. However, they were able to sell an asset so the stock had a nice rebound. Looks pretty attractive here.

HOLD
HOLD
October 9, 2012

(Market Call Minute.) Have recently had a few production issues. Valuation is fair.

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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
October 9, 2012

(Market Call Minute.) Have recently had a few production issues. Valuation is fair.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 26, 2012
Have a very nice operation in their Young Davidson mine that is just in the phase of commissioning. It just hit a 52-week low because of weakness on their Ocompo Mexican mine as well as the departure of their CEO because of medical reasons. Cheap, but not his favourite.
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Have a very nice operation in their Young Davidson mine that is just in the phase of commissioning. It just hit a 52-week low because of weakness on their Ocompo Mexican mine as well as the departure of their CEO because of medical reasons. Cheap, but not his favourite.
BUY
BUY
March 30, 2012
Mexican gold player. Recently acquired Northgate Minerals. Looking to optimize both their Mexican and Canadian assets, which could double their production. Good company. Stock is very cheap right now and should move up very nicely.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
March 30, 2012
Mexican gold player. Recently acquired Northgate Minerals. Looking to optimize both their Mexican and Canadian assets, which could double their production. Good company. Stock is very cheap right now and should move up very nicely.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 29, 2011
He has a target price of $10 so feels it is fully valued. He is neutral on this one. With this one, you mainly get the rise in the price of the commodity. There are others that look better.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
April 29, 2011
He has a target price of $10 so feels it is fully valued. He is neutral on this one. With this one, you mainly get the rise in the price of the commodity. There are others that look better.
BUY
BUY
April 1, 2011
One of the gold socks where he thinks the money is going to go to. Expect it will work higher.
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One of the gold socks where he thinks the money is going to go to. Expect it will work higher.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 24, 2010
(A Top Pick Nov 5/09. Down 31%.) Sold his holdings when it broke below its 200 day moving average.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
November 24, 2010
(A Top Pick Nov 5/09. Down 31%.) Sold his holdings when it broke below its 200 day moving average.
BUY
BUY
August 19, 2010
Chart shows a 5-wave pullback, which is now completed and has support at $5.30. In a sector that is favourable. Once it gets above its current level it should work higher.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
August 19, 2010
Chart shows a 5-wave pullback, which is now completed and has support at $5.30. In a sector that is favourable. Once it gets above its current level it should work higher.
HOLD
HOLD
July 29, 2010
Has come off quite dramatically and he has been looking at it. Has a strike at one mine as well as some operational difficulties. Didn't achieve objectives in the last couple of quarters. Open pit has a 5-year life and then they'll have to go underground. A “show me” story.
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Has come off quite dramatically and he has been looking at it. Has a strike at one mine as well as some operational difficulties. Didn't achieve objectives in the last couple of quarters. Open pit has a 5-year life and then they'll have to go underground. A “show me” story.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 5, 2010
There are better resource bases out there that you could invest in.
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There are better resource bases out there that you could invest in.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
June 22, 2010
Had a labour issue a couple of weeks ago. Have a descent sized gold deposit. Some bad luck as far as operations. Ha some doubts about their ability to manage these issues. He would start looking around a digging if it were at the right price.
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Had a labour issue a couple of weeks ago. Have a descent sized gold deposit. Some bad luck as far as operations. Ha some doubts about their ability to manage these issues. He would start looking around a digging if it were at the right price.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 17, 2010
Gold. Just fired a lot of people in a mine in Mexico and the stock fell 9%. Gold prices have been hitting all-time highs versus the producers. Would rather own the commodity.
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Gold. Just fired a lot of people in a mine in Mexico and the stock fell 9%. Gold prices have been hitting all-time highs versus the producers. Would rather own the commodity.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 18, 2010
(Top Pick Nov 5/09) Should have got out when it broke the trend line. $7 is an important support level.
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(Top Pick Nov 5/09) Should have got out when it broke the trend line. $7 is an important support level.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 30, 2010
Has not been a good performer over the years with a lot of misses on their production. Costs have been going up quite a bit too. There are so many other great gold stories out there. At some point in time, he will Short this one.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
April 30, 2010
Has not been a good performer over the years with a lot of misses on their production. Costs have been going up quite a bit too. There are so many other great gold stories out there. At some point in time, he will Short this one.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 8, 2010
Have had a lot of revisions downwards by analysts in terms of its forward earnings. Below the 50 and 200 day moving averages.
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Have had a lot of revisions downwards by analysts in terms of its forward earnings. Below the 50 and 200 day moving averages.
HOLD
HOLD
April 5, 2010
Has positive cash flow, in turnaround mode, revenues have gone up, good turnaround candidate. He would not sell it if he owned it.
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Has positive cash flow, in turnaround mode, revenues have gone up, good turnaround candidate. He would not sell it if he owned it.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 11, 2010
Have had a tough time getting their mine working. Veins are not hanging together as they would like and there is a lot more dilution in the open pit portion of it. Having trouble with high-grade getting mixed in with low.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
March 11, 2010
Have had a tough time getting their mine working. Veins are not hanging together as they would like and there is a lot more dilution in the open pit portion of it. Having trouble with high-grade getting mixed in with low.
BUY
BUY
February 4, 2010
Gold/Silver. Looks very attractive. Very good earnings. If gold starts moving up, some of the companies will leverage up and do better than the price of gold bullion itself.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
February 4, 2010
Gold/Silver. Looks very attractive. Very good earnings. If gold starts moving up, some of the companies will leverage up and do better than the price of gold bullion itself.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 5, 2009
Gold is tremendous and the stock made a “true” inverse head and shoulders and is now breaking through the neckline. Could easily be $15-$17.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
November 5, 2009
Gold is tremendous and the stock made a “true” inverse head and shoulders and is now breaking through the neckline. Could easily be $15-$17.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
June 17, 2009
Impressive new management. After years of going sideways they are finally moving their project forward. Good production profile. Good valuation. Stock could weaken off here.
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Impressive new management. After years of going sideways they are finally moving their project forward. Good production profile. Good valuation. Stock could weaken off here.
BUY
BUY
April 24, 2009
(Market Call Minute) New Management
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
April 24, 2009
(Market Call Minute) New Management
BUY
BUY
May 20, 2008
Had lots of operational problems, so dropped down to the $6 level. They do have gold. New management, formerly out of Barrick (ABX-T) has confidence in the mine.
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Had lots of operational problems, so dropped down to the $6 level. They do have gold. New management, formerly out of Barrick (ABX-T) has confidence in the mine.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2008
Long-term chart shows an under performer when compared to other golds. With an under performer in a sector, you should reduce or wait until it outperforms. Seems to be a lot of support around the $8.00 mark and the short-term chart shows a falling wedge, a bullish indicator. It breaks out of this wedge that is a very good sign.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
January 9, 2008
Long-term chart shows an under performer when compared to other golds. With an under performer in a sector, you should reduce or wait until it outperforms. Seems to be a lot of support around the $8.00 mark and the short-term chart shows a falling wedge, a bullish indicator. It breaks out of this wedge that is a very good sign.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 26, 2007
(Market Call Minute.) A dog. Raise $100 million and are down to $1 million. The mine is just not working.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
November 26, 2007
(Market Call Minute.) A dog. Raise $100 million and are down to $1 million. The mine is just not working.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 14, 2007
(Market Call Minute) Would avoid this stock. Have had escalating production problems.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
November 14, 2007
(Market Call Minute) Would avoid this stock. Have had escalating production problems.
SELL
SELL
September 6, 2007
Good new management team. Their project is somewhat challenged. They are dealing with an open pit mine that is exhausted and are planning on extending the underground, which will be expensive. Would look elsewhere.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
September 6, 2007
Good new management team. Their project is somewhat challenged. They are dealing with an open pit mine that is exhausted and are planning on extending the underground, which will be expensive. Would look elsewhere.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 10, 2007
Mexican operations are still having difficulty. Operating costs were very high and production levels were very low. New CEO will be trying to turn the company around.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
August 10, 2007
Mexican operations are still having difficulty. Operating costs were very high and production levels were very low. New CEO will be trying to turn the company around.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 12, 2007
Production level and cash flows were below targets in the last quarter. Having some teething problems with some of their new operations. Wait to see if they can sort out some of their operations when they bring production on stream.
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Production level and cash flows were below targets in the last quarter. Having some teething problems with some of their new operations. Wait to see if they can sort out some of their operations when they bring production on stream.
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2007
A wonderful situation in Mexico. Stock price has performed very well. Represents less risk now, but with a higher pricing in silver/gold it should continue to appreciate.
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A wonderful situation in Mexico. Stock price has performed very well. Represents less risk now, but with a higher pricing in silver/gold it should continue to appreciate.
BUY
BUY
November 22, 2006
In the “ yawn” category. Potentially heading for a 300,000-ounce production in Mexico. Could be a takeout. Be patient.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
November 22, 2006
In the “ yawn” category. Potentially heading for a 300,000-ounce production in Mexico. Could be a takeout. Be patient.
BUY
BUY
October 30, 2006
A good play on the base metals.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
October 30, 2006
A good play on the base metals.
BUY
BUY
February 15, 2006
Likes the deposit. Production is just under 160,000 ounces of gold a year expecting to go up to 208,000 as well as 5.7 million ounces of silver. Low cash cost. Thinks the deposit still has a lot of room to grow. Under valued company.
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AuRico Gold Inc (AUQ-T)
February 15, 2006
Likes the deposit. Production is just under 160,000 ounces of gold a year expecting to go up to 208,000 as well as 5.7 million ounces of silver. Low cash cost. Thinks the deposit still has a lot of room to grow. Under valued company.