First Quantum Minerals

FM-T

TSE:FM

12.65
0.92 (7.84%)
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. is a Canadian based mining and metals company whose principal activities include mineral exploration, development and mining. Its main product is copper, which accounts for 80% of revenues. as of 2016.
More at Wikipedia

Analysis and Opinions about FM-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 8, 2019
A risky stock that’s driven him nuts. He bought it around $10.96. It’s finally breaking out. Copper stocks could do well although his exit price is around $11 which could move up depending on how it performs. (Analysts’ price target is $15.47)
Show full opinionHide full opinion
A risky stock that’s driven him nuts. He bought it around $10.96. It’s finally breaking out. Copper stocks could do well although his exit price is around $11 which could move up depending on how it performs. (Analysts’ price target is $15.47)
WAIT
WAIT
October 3, 2019
November - March is best holding period. Still a ways out. Trend of lower lows and lower highs. Wait for selling exhaustion. We're not there yet.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
November - March is best holding period. Still a ways out. Trend of lower lows and lower highs. Wait for selling exhaustion. We're not there yet.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 1, 2019
Depends on China, and whether that economy goes back up. He owns Hudbay Minerals instead, it's a safer geography and a bit better balance sheet.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Depends on China, and whether that economy goes back up. He owns Hudbay Minerals instead, it's a safer geography and a bit better balance sheet.
WATCH
WATCH
January 31, 2019
It is similar to TECK.B-T. It is on his watch list. It has 25-30% upside this year. If he wants to get more exposure to emerging markets, this is one he will buy.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
It is similar to TECK.B-T. It is on his watch list. It has 25-30% upside this year. If he wants to get more exposure to emerging markets, this is one he will buy.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 17, 2018

They've put their troubles behind them. Can't predict their near future, but in a year or two there could be a tailwind for commodity prices. They are getting earnings from some of their earnings now which is reducing their debt.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

They've put their troubles behind them. Can't predict their near future, but in a year or two there could be a tailwind for commodity prices. They are getting earnings from some of their earnings now which is reducing their debt.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 17, 2018

SHORT (A Top Pick Jun 28/17, Down 42%) It's been a wild ride. It has come off more recently. The thesis has not changed on this stock. It has terrible valuation with virtually no return on equity. It missed on the most recent quarter. It is not cheap and a highly volatile stock.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
First Quantum Minerals (FM-T)
September 17, 2018

SHORT (A Top Pick Jun 28/17, Down 42%) It's been a wild ride. It has come off more recently. The thesis has not changed on this stock. It has terrible valuation with virtually no return on equity. It missed on the most recent quarter. It is not cheap and a highly volatile stock.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 25, 2017

An exceptionally volatile stock. It produces copper in dangerous parts of the world. Lots of companies are having problems these days with governments, not getting good enough deals. You have to be really careful. This is going to track the Chinese stock market pretty carefully. The company is well-run. Has a lot of debt. If you are going to invest in stocks like this, make sure it is the appropriate amount in your portfolio and don’t own too much.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

An exceptionally volatile stock. It produces copper in dangerous parts of the world. Lots of companies are having problems these days with governments, not getting good enough deals. You have to be really careful. This is going to track the Chinese stock market pretty carefully. The company is well-run. Has a lot of debt. If you are going to invest in stocks like this, make sure it is the appropriate amount in your portfolio and don’t own too much.

BUY
BUY
July 18, 2017

First Quantum (FM-T) or Hudbay (HBM-T)? He tries to only focus in areas of the market that are strong technically and fundamentally. Also, he always looks for new groups of leadership to emerge. In the last few weeks, despite the fact that commodities in general have been spotty, the metals group has started to perform better. Globally, things are getting better economically, but in addition, the US$ has really taken a tumble. When that happens, it tends to be good for emerging markets and good for commodity prices. The 3 metal stocks that stand out would be Hudbay, First Quantum, and Lundin (LUN-T). All 3 look very attractive. He would be OK with all 3.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

First Quantum (FM-T) or Hudbay (HBM-T)? He tries to only focus in areas of the market that are strong technically and fundamentally. Also, he always looks for new groups of leadership to emerge. In the last few weeks, despite the fact that commodities in general have been spotty, the metals group has started to perform better. Globally, things are getting better economically, but in addition, the US$ has really taken a tumble. When that happens, it tends to be good for emerging markets and good for commodity prices. The 3 metal stocks that stand out would be Hudbay, First Quantum, and Lundin (LUN-T). All 3 look very attractive. He would be OK with all 3.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 5, 2017

A good Short? The short answer is yes, and the long answer is yes, but he would advise against doing it. To do it, he would put a Long against it such as Lundin Mining (LUN-T) or Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T). They have an awful lot of debt and are very concentrated in Zambia. There are execution risks on a very large mine they are building in Panama. With a lot of debt attached, this is a very tough place to be.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

A good Short? The short answer is yes, and the long answer is yes, but he would advise against doing it. To do it, he would put a Long against it such as Lundin Mining (LUN-T) or Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T). They have an awful lot of debt and are very concentrated in Zambia. There are execution risks on a very large mine they are building in Panama. With a lot of debt attached, this is a very tough place to be.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 28, 2017

*SHORT* This is in line with his concern that the cyclical value may have peaked and may not be recovering in this cycle. Despite having a really good run from July to the election, this has really trended down. Their problem is that they have always had a lot of debt. Expensive on an earnings basis, trading at 43X trailing. A really low ROE. Highly volatile. (Analysts’ price target is $17.63.)

Show full opinionHide full opinion

*SHORT* This is in line with his concern that the cyclical value may have peaked and may not be recovering in this cycle. Despite having a really good run from July to the election, this has really trended down. Their problem is that they have always had a lot of debt. Expensive on an earnings basis, trading at 43X trailing. A really low ROE. Highly volatile. (Analysts’ price target is $17.63.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 15, 2017

Copper had moved up earlier in the year and kind of went sideways for a while. This is the levered one. It is the jurisdiction that is the problem for anyone that is nervous. However, what you get is the best liquidity and the best leverage. If you really like copper, and can stomach the risks, then this one should move. He prefers Hudbay (HBM-T).

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Copper had moved up earlier in the year and kind of went sideways for a while. This is the levered one. It is the jurisdiction that is the problem for anyone that is nervous. However, what you get is the best liquidity and the best leverage. If you really like copper, and can stomach the risks, then this one should move. He prefers Hudbay (HBM-T).

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 12, 2017

Thinks copper will do very well 3 or 4 years out, but it depends on your patience and willingness to endure some short-term pain with regards to their balance sheet, which is still stretched.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Thinks copper will do very well 3 or 4 years out, but it depends on your patience and willingness to endure some short-term pain with regards to their balance sheet, which is still stretched.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 7, 2017

Their Cobre copper project in the Panama will make this company one of the largest copper miners in the world. They have to get through the construction. They have debt on the balance sheet, which makes things a little precarious. He would probably stay on the sidelines.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Their Cobre copper project in the Panama will make this company one of the largest copper miners in the world. They have to get through the construction. They have debt on the balance sheet, which makes things a little precarious. He would probably stay on the sidelines.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 9, 2017

He is not short this one anymore. He thinks it is fully priced, however. They have quite a bit of debt and are building an asset in Panama. There is political risk in Zambia.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

He is not short this one anymore. He thinks it is fully priced, however. They have quite a bit of debt and are building an asset in Panama. There is political risk in Zambia.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2016

Base metals, primarily in countries that he wouldn’t necessarily take vacations in. Higher risk environments, but from that you get higher returns. He prefers more stable jurisdictions. The company has decent assets that are generating cash flow. Also, they got $1 billion in cash on a recent deal which gives them some flexibility.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Base metals, primarily in countries that he wouldn’t necessarily take vacations in. Higher risk environments, but from that you get higher returns. He prefers more stable jurisdictions. The company has decent assets that are generating cash flow. Also, they got $1 billion in cash on a recent deal which gives them some flexibility.

BUY
BUY
November 28, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) You want to be in materials, and this is one of the leaders.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(Market Call Minute.) You want to be in materials, and this is one of the leaders.

BUY
BUY
November 10, 2016

It has risen to the forefront to be a go to. They are global. Their primary exposure is to copper and is a leveraged way to play a recovery in copper. Keep in mind it is leveraged so it will go the other way just as far if copper drops.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

It has risen to the forefront to be a go to. They are global. Their primary exposure is to copper and is a leveraged way to play a recovery in copper. Keep in mind it is leveraged so it will go the other way just as far if copper drops.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 15, 2016

He is short the stock. He would suggest the fundamentals of the copper market are bearish. They have a leveraged balance sheet. It is expensive here.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
First Quantum Minerals (FM-T)
September 15, 2016

He is short the stock. He would suggest the fundamentals of the copper market are bearish. They have a leveraged balance sheet. It is expensive here.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 23, 2016

First Quantum (FM-T) or Teck Resources (TCK.B-T)? His view is definitely more constructive on Teck.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

First Quantum (FM-T) or Teck Resources (TCK.B-T)? His view is definitely more constructive on Teck.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 18, 2016

One of the best silver plays out there. We are seeing a little bit of short term weakness. It is pretty over extended, although it could stay there. It was a pretty big move since the beginning of the year, breaking a long down trend. The challenge is how do you leap into this one. You can get a pretty significant swing in these names. If it does not hold at $19 it could go to the mid teens. Pick your best spot and go from there.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

One of the best silver plays out there. We are seeing a little bit of short term weakness. It is pretty over extended, although it could stay there. It was a pretty big move since the beginning of the year, breaking a long down trend. The challenge is how do you leap into this one. You can get a pretty significant swing in these names. If it does not hold at $19 it could go to the mid teens. Pick your best spot and go from there.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 27, 2016

Ranks fairly well in his process, both from a fundamental and a technical basis. This is a result of 2 factors. One has been a rising price in commodities. Also, it got beaten up so badly in 2015, that people who were under-exposed to the sector are really clambering to try to get in.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Ranks fairly well in his process, both from a fundamental and a technical basis. This is a result of 2 factors. One has been a rising price in commodities. Also, it got beaten up so badly in 2015, that people who were under-exposed to the sector are really clambering to try to get in.

HOLD
HOLD
July 11, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) This would be a hold based on reflation and China coming back.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(Market Call Minute.) This would be a hold based on reflation and China coming back.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 5, 2016

A very, very leveraged bet on copper prices in problematic jurisdictions, namely Zambia. This has an excess of debt load, negative all in sustaining costs, in that they are losing money for every pound of copper they produce. Not the sort of name he would want to own. He doesn’t have a bullish outlook on copper, and he is Short this company.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

A very, very leveraged bet on copper prices in problematic jurisdictions, namely Zambia. This has an excess of debt load, negative all in sustaining costs, in that they are losing money for every pound of copper they produce. Not the sort of name he would want to own. He doesn’t have a bullish outlook on copper, and he is Short this company.

HOLD
HOLD
June 30, 2016

This whole complex is very volatile. The stock has formed a nice base. In its sector, it is a pretty volatile stock. It would be interesting if it could get above the $10 mark, because then it could move up to $15.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

This whole complex is very volatile. The stock has formed a nice base. In its sector, it is a pretty volatile stock. It would be interesting if it could get above the $10 mark, because then it could move up to $15.

BUY
BUY
May 31, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Good leverage to zinc. Sees the refinancing on the debt as being a positive catalyst.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(Market Call Minute.) Good leverage to zinc. Sees the refinancing on the debt as being a positive catalyst.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 16, 2016

The timing of their acquisition is not good and burdened them with a lot of debt. They need a higher copper price to get a good return.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

The timing of their acquisition is not good and burdened them with a lot of debt. They need a higher copper price to get a good return.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 13, 2016

From a fundamental standpoint, this doesn’t rank super well in his process, but from a price momentum standpoint he is starting to see it turn a little.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

From a fundamental standpoint, this doesn’t rank super well in his process, but from a price momentum standpoint he is starting to see it turn a little.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 5, 2016

This is a space that is down and out, and is really impacted in the short term by its relationship to the US$. Chart shows a little rounding bottom and he expects resistance at around the $5 level.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

This is a space that is down and out, and is really impacted in the short term by its relationship to the US$. Chart shows a little rounding bottom and he expects resistance at around the $5 level.

SELL
SELL
January 19, 2016

The mining sector is under pressure. There is a demand problem from Asia and we have too much supply. This stock has been selling off for a year, and the sector has been selling off for longer than that. Before this problem is done there are going to be bankruptcies and restructurings, and you are really fighting the tide. He would pick an exit price.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

The mining sector is under pressure. There is a demand problem from Asia and we have too much supply. This stock has been selling off for a year, and the sector has been selling off for longer than that. Before this problem is done there are going to be bankruptcies and restructurings, and you are really fighting the tide. He would pick an exit price.

HOLD
HOLD
December 21, 2015

It is back to the crisis low. It is a victim of tax loss selling this year and then next month you will get a bounce.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

It is back to the crisis low. It is a victim of tax loss selling this year and then next month you will get a bounce.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 18, 2015

Materials in general have been a brutal place to be. It broke the old 4-5 years of support level. Right now the picture is ugly for materials in general and for this stock particularly. The trend is down for copper, and he doesn’t have much faith in materials at this time. There might be some short-term upside where you could get out of it.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Materials in general have been a brutal place to be. It broke the old 4-5 years of support level. Right now the picture is ugly for materials in general and for this stock particularly. The trend is down for copper, and he doesn’t have much faith in materials at this time. There might be some short-term upside where you could get out of it.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 27, 2015

Most of its assets are in Africa and more risky type economies. As an investor, he goes to the safer places first, and then later in the cycle moves to the riskier places.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Most of its assets are in Africa and more risky type economies. As an investor, he goes to the safer places first, and then later in the cycle moves to the riskier places.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 16, 2015

Building out some big projects. More of a pure copper play than Tech Resources (TCK.B-T). Smaller and a little bit more stretched in the balance sheet. This is a name he has Shorted on many occasions. Commodities have been abysmal. Copper hit recent lows in the last couple of days.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Building out some big projects. More of a pure copper play than Tech Resources (TCK.B-T). Smaller and a little bit more stretched in the balance sheet. This is a name he has Shorted on many occasions. Commodities have been abysmal. Copper hit recent lows in the last couple of days.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 12, 2015

2 things you have to consider, very soft copper prices and a balance sheet that is stretched with debt. First-class assets with a great management team. It could be 1.5-2 years before copper prices change. The company has to deal with soft copper prices in the face of an aggressive balance sheet for the next 18-24 months.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

2 things you have to consider, very soft copper prices and a balance sheet that is stretched with debt. First-class assets with a great management team. It could be 1.5-2 years before copper prices change. The company has to deal with soft copper prices in the face of an aggressive balance sheet for the next 18-24 months.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 9, 2015

As long as China is slowing, the case for base metals like copper is not good. You are not seeing any strong evidence of a bottom. It is a tough call. You could trade it on a trading rally, but it is not time to invest in it.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

As long as China is slowing, the case for base metals like copper is not good. You are not seeing any strong evidence of a bottom. It is a tough call. You could trade it on a trading rally, but it is not time to invest in it.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 6, 2015

Has very little in the mining side. You have to let the commodity side turn a bit. If you are in this and are thinking of averaging down, you could start to pick away. If you don’t own, give it a bit of room to show you that it is going to go up.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Has very little in the mining side. You have to let the commodity side turn a bit. If you are in this and are thinking of averaging down, you could start to pick away. If you don’t own, give it a bit of room to show you that it is going to go up.