Tamarack Valley Energy

TVE-T

Analysis and Opinions about TVE-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 14, 2015

(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 31.16%.) Broke down from a technical standpoint and he sold his holdings at probably around $5.35.

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(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 31.16%.) Broke down from a technical standpoint and he sold his holdings at probably around $5.35.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 7, 2015

Another example of a business that has continued to surpass the market’s expectations. Had 11 quarters in a row where they beat the estimates on the street. Made an acquisition earlier in the year that was financed higher than today’s stock price. Low operational costs. Little to no debt. Well financed acquisition at Wilson Creek in September set the stage for continued growth.

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Another example of a business that has continued to surpass the market’s expectations. Had 11 quarters in a row where they beat the estimates on the street. Made an acquisition earlier in the year that was financed higher than today’s stock price. Low operational costs. Little to no debt. Well financed acquisition at Wilson Creek in September set the stage for continued growth.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 10, 2014

(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 34.11%.) Still has a lot of respect for management. They are still executing the way he thought they would. The price of oil really started to go against them and capital flows moved out of the stock. It broke down from a technical standpoint, so he sold his holdings. He continues to like it and is still on his radar screen. They are seeing some significant cost reductions happening in their facilities, but also in their drilling costs, which will bring down their production costs. This means that their netbacks, even with the price of oil dropping, are still going to remain fairly high. There is also a pretty good chance that they might sell some of their facilities to give them extra capital, as opposed to having to go to the market.

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(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 34.11%.) Still has a lot of respect for management. They are still executing the way he thought they would. The price of oil really started to go against them and capital flows moved out of the stock. It broke down from a technical standpoint, so he sold his holdings. He continues to like it and is still on his radar screen. They are seeing some significant cost reductions happening in their facilities, but also in their drilling costs, which will bring down their production costs. This means that their netbacks, even with the price of oil dropping, are still going to remain fairly high. There is also a pretty good chance that they might sell some of their facilities to give them extra capital, as opposed to having to go to the market.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 19, 2014

(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 0.46%.) Sold his holdings in the $5.20 region. Story hasn't really changed much, it's just the dynamics of the industry and that the wind was starting to go in their face, and not at their backs. Great management and great production and are continuing to grow their base. If there was a correction in the price of oil, he would certainly go back into this again.

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(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 0.46%.) Sold his holdings in the $5.20 region. Story hasn't really changed much, it's just the dynamics of the industry and that the wind was starting to go in their face, and not at their backs. Great management and great production and are continuing to grow their base. If there was a correction in the price of oil, he would certainly go back into this again.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 3, 2014

(Top Pick Oct 23/13, Up 71.59%) Very seasoned management. They did some good acquisitions. You just don’t get this kind of growth curve.

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(Top Pick Oct 23/13, Up 71.59%) Very seasoned management. They did some good acquisitions. You just don’t get this kind of growth curve.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 24, 2014

Recently did a financing just above $7. The whole energy sector has really been beaten up, especially in the last 2 weeks. It’s not just a specific company, but seems to be more of a flow of funds out of the sector. Likes this one. They continue to execute on their plan. Just made a small acquisition and continue to build up their properties. Will probably see higher productions from them. Expect that they will eventually be taken out down the road. Probably cheaper than some of its peers.

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Recently did a financing just above $7. The whole energy sector has really been beaten up, especially in the last 2 weeks. It’s not just a specific company, but seems to be more of a flow of funds out of the sector. Likes this one. They continue to execute on their plan. Just made a small acquisition and continue to build up their properties. Will probably see higher productions from them. Expect that they will eventually be taken out down the road. Probably cheaper than some of its peers.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2014

(Market Call Minute.) Likes this one. Management continues to do a great job.

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(Market Call Minute.) Likes this one. Management continues to do a great job.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 28, 2014

The day is gone when they are drilling to try and find a huge 5000 barrel a day well. This is now a manufacturing process. They drill a well and it comes online at 60-80 barrels. After a while it declines down to something like 40-50 barrels a day, and then stays fairly steady. They then try to enhance that production through water, polymer or some kind of enhancement. Have some interesting projects where they are doing a farm-in with Taga North, which allows them to participate in Taga’s property which they’ve bought. They are doing longer segments now on the horizontal so that they only have to pay for a 1 mile segment, not the 2-mile segment that they actually achieved.

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The day is gone when they are drilling to try and find a huge 5000 barrel a day well. This is now a manufacturing process. They drill a well and it comes online at 60-80 barrels. After a while it declines down to something like 40-50 barrels a day, and then stays fairly steady. They then try to enhance that production through water, polymer or some kind of enhancement. Have some interesting projects where they are doing a farm-in with Taga North, which allows them to participate in Taga’s property which they’ve bought. They are doing longer segments now on the horizontal so that they only have to pay for a 1 mile segment, not the 2-mile segment that they actually achieved.

BUY
BUY
May 21, 2014

Reporting early June, so we should get an update on some of their well results. Good management. Recently hit $6, which he considered as undervalued, compared to its peer group. You will get 20% per share growth in production and cash flow this year. Great entry point.

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Reporting early June, so we should get an update on some of their well results. Good management. Recently hit $6, which he considered as undervalued, compared to its peer group. You will get 20% per share growth in production and cash flow this year. Great entry point.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 14, 2014

60% oil and liquids. Canada. This company keeps outperforming his targets.

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60% oil and liquids. Canada. This company keeps outperforming his targets.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 15, 2014

Screens very well on his earnings based approach. Management team came from Apache Canada where they grew production from under 20,000 barrels a day production to 100,000 in less than 7 years. They are applying the same discipline to this company. Currently there is a huge discrepancy between Haves and Have-Nots in the Canadian oil patch. The people who have access to capital can get into and drill undeveloped properties and this company falls into that category. Just made an acquisition.

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Screens very well on his earnings based approach. Management team came from Apache Canada where they grew production from under 20,000 barrels a day production to 100,000 in less than 7 years. They are applying the same discipline to this company. Currently there is a huge discrepancy between Haves and Have-Nots in the Canadian oil patch. The people who have access to capital can get into and drill undeveloped properties and this company falls into that category. Just made an acquisition.

BUY
BUY
January 8, 2014

Very fast growing company that has done very well with acquisitions. More importantly, they have enhanced the value of the acquisitions. Drilling results are quite good. Spending a lot of time in the Viking formation. High rates of return and drilling costs are relatively modest.

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Very fast growing company that has done very well with acquisitions. More importantly, they have enhanced the value of the acquisitions. Drilling results are quite good. Spending a lot of time in the Viking formation. High rates of return and drilling costs are relatively modest.

HOLD
HOLD
November 15, 2013

Likes the company. They’ve made some acquisitions and are moving more and more towards liquids. Have done very, very well. Probably doing about 3200-3300 BOEs a day. NAV at the end of last year was $4.28 so it still has room to go. Low-cost operator. He has a $5 target.

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Likes the company. They’ve made some acquisitions and are moving more and more towards liquids. Have done very, very well. Probably doing about 3200-3300 BOEs a day. NAV at the end of last year was $4.28 so it still has room to go. Low-cost operator. He has a $5 target.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 23, 2013

Recently acquired Sure Energy, which is a great acquisition. Very confident operators. What really lies in front of them is the Viking opportunity and the Cardium opportunity. They have something like almost 400 locations on these 2 assets. Trades at a discount to its peers, which is not justified.

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Recently acquired Sure Energy, which is a great acquisition. Very confident operators. What really lies in front of them is the Viking opportunity and the Cardium opportunity. They have something like almost 400 locations on these 2 assets. Trades at a discount to its peers, which is not justified.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 21, 2013

Doing almost 60% of their production liquids from 2 areas. Did 290,000 BOE’s in the 2nd quarter and he thinks the cash flow will be over $1 this year. BV for Q1 was $286 and the NAV is over $4. He has a $5 target on this.

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Doing almost 60% of their production liquids from 2 areas. Did 290,000 BOE’s in the 2nd quarter and he thinks the cash flow will be over $1 this year. BV for Q1 was $286 and the NAV is over $4. He has a $5 target on this.

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