MEG Energy Corp

MEG-T

TSE:MEG

9.14
0.49 (5.66%)
MEG Energy is a pure play Canadian oil sands producer engaged in exploration in Northern Alberta. All of its oil reserves are more than 1,000 feet below the surface and so they depend on steam-assisted ...
More at Wikipedia

Analysis and Opinions about MEG-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 3, 2020
They have a very good hedge book -- 55% hedged at $59 WTI. When oil prices recover back to normal it will become one of the top takeout targets. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $3.98)
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They have a very good hedge book -- 55% hedged at $59 WTI. When oil prices recover back to normal it will become one of the top takeout targets. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $3.98)
Eric Nuttall
Price
$2.100
Owned
Yes
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 6, 2020
(A Top Pick Apr 26/19, Down 4%) They are 70% hedged at $60 WTI for the first half of the year -- this may be helping them hold their value relative to peers right now. They still generate $250 million of excess cash flow at $47 oil prices. They have 30 plus years of reserves and are trading at 80% reserve blow down values.
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(A Top Pick Apr 26/19, Down 4%) They are 70% hedged at $60 WTI for the first half of the year -- this may be helping them hold their value relative to peers right now. They still generate $250 million of excess cash flow at $47 oil prices. They have 30 plus years of reserves and are trading at 80% reserve blow down values.
Eric Nuttall
Price
$6.040
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 6, 2020
It has 68 years of reserves and are 70% hedged for the first half of this year at $60 oil prices. They have many billions in tax losses that could be very valuable to a large international player. He thinks it could trade back up to $9 with normalized oil prices towards $60. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $8.49)
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It has 68 years of reserves and are 70% hedged for the first half of this year at $60 oil prices. They have many billions in tax losses that could be very valuable to a large international player. He thinks it could trade back up to $9 with normalized oil prices towards $60. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $8.49)
Eric Nuttall
Price
$6.040
Owned
Yes
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 12, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 33%) There has been a massive buyer in the market for this stock. He sold out in December and just re-bought at around current price levels. It has direct exposure to heavy oil price strengthening. Crude by rail rates are increasing and is allowing heavy oil inventory to begin dropping. They are using their free cash flow to pay down debt rapidly. They have 68 years of production inventory. He thinks they will become a take out target by a large oil player soon. The stock price could go to $9-$10.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
February 12, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 33%) There has been a massive buyer in the market for this stock. He sold out in December and just re-bought at around current price levels. It has direct exposure to heavy oil price strengthening. Crude by rail rates are increasing and is allowing heavy oil inventory to begin dropping. They are using their free cash flow to pay down debt rapidly. They have 68 years of production inventory. He thinks they will become a take out target by a large oil player soon. The stock price could go to $9-$10.
Eric Nuttall
Price
$6.590
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
They are the number one target in Canada for M&A. There are a list of potential acquires where it makes a lot of sense. They have enormous tax pools. It is trading at a 29% free cash flow yield. They are over levered. He sees a 25% upside from here.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
December 19, 2019
They are the number one target in Canada for M&A. There are a list of potential acquires where it makes a lot of sense. They have enormous tax pools. It is trading at a 29% free cash flow yield. They are over levered. He sees a 25% upside from here.
Eric Nuttall
Price
$7.070
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 15, 2019
Cenovus or MEG? He likes MEG for the prospect of M&A. They have great tax pools and is deeply discounted. CVE provides exposure to heavy oil production and Alberta monetizing their rail position. He would prefer MEG, because of its relative valuation. Both have a good investment case.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
November 15, 2019
Cenovus or MEG? He likes MEG for the prospect of M&A. They have great tax pools and is deeply discounted. CVE provides exposure to heavy oil production and Alberta monetizing their rail position. He would prefer MEG, because of its relative valuation. Both have a good investment case.
Eric Nuttall
Price
$5.340
Owned
_N/A
BUY
BUY
October 11, 2019

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
October 11, 2019

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

Eric Nuttall
Price
$5.280
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 11, 2019

A takeout target? MEG-T is not his largest holding as they have more leverage than he is comfortable with. Their low cost structure and 65 years of production life, he sees them being able to de-leverage themselves back to 2 times cash flow over the next two years. The company will generate over 20% free cash yield at $55 WTI prices and $17.50 heavy oil differential. This makes them the #1 M&A target in Canada -- maybe CVE-T.

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
October 11, 2019

A takeout target? MEG-T is not his largest holding as they have more leverage than he is comfortable with. Their low cost structure and 65 years of production life, he sees them being able to de-leverage themselves back to 2 times cash flow over the next two years. The company will generate over 20% free cash yield at $55 WTI prices and $17.50 heavy oil differential. This makes them the #1 M&A target in Canada -- maybe CVE-T.

Eric Nuttall
Price
$5.280
Owned
Yes
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 30, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 32%) Trading at a 40% or almost $600 million yearly of free cash flow yield. But debt to cash flow is 4x. They know that, so they're paying down debt. He projects that to be 2x in 2.5 years. At that time, they can pay a generous dividend or privatize.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
August 30, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 32%) Trading at a 40% or almost $600 million yearly of free cash flow yield. But debt to cash flow is 4x. They know that, so they're paying down debt. He projects that to be 2x in 2.5 years. At that time, they can pay a generous dividend or privatize.
Eric Nuttall
Price
$5.080
Owned
Unknown
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 30, 2019
(See his other comments this day.) Trading at near 40% free cash flow yield. They have 68 years of production. They're paying down debt with their hefty cash flow. They can privatize down the road. (Analysts’ price target is $7.57)
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
August 30, 2019
(See his other comments this day.) Trading at near 40% free cash flow yield. They have 68 years of production. They're paying down debt with their hefty cash flow. They can privatize down the road. (Analysts’ price target is $7.57)
Eric Nuttall
Price
$5.080
Owned
Yes
WAIT
WAIT
August 26, 2019
The debt is high (95% of equity) but they are working through it. He likes the company. It will react if we get $70 oil. It could be a 10 bagger! People have to take a long term nature on these things. He would take a look at it in October. (Analysts’ price target is $7.63)
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
August 26, 2019
The debt is high (95% of equity) but they are working through it. He likes the company. It will react if we get $70 oil. It could be a 10 bagger! People have to take a long term nature on these things. He would take a look at it in October. (Analysts’ price target is $7.63)
Josef Schachter
Price
$4.440
Owned
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 19, 2019
(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 40%) They need to pay down debt. They trade at a 37% free cash flow yield. It's the biggest name in his fund. Their biggest knock is their balance sheet, 4x debt-to-cash flow. They should NOT be buying back stocks, but instead pay down debt. He expects them to arrive at an industry level of 2-2.5x cash-to-debt flow in two years, and by then could pay a 35% dividend or privatize three years after that point. A high-quality name. Through pipelines and rails, next year they can ship 66% of their oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. He expects a killer quarter coming up.
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(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 40%) They need to pay down debt. They trade at a 37% free cash flow yield. It's the biggest name in his fund. Their biggest knock is their balance sheet, 4x debt-to-cash flow. They should NOT be buying back stocks, but instead pay down debt. He expects them to arrive at an industry level of 2-2.5x cash-to-debt flow in two years, and by then could pay a 35% dividend or privatize three years after that point. A high-quality name. Through pipelines and rails, next year they can ship 66% of their oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. He expects a killer quarter coming up.
Eric Nuttall
Price
$5.290
Owned
Yes
WAIT
WAIT
May 24, 2019
A fall in WTI prices has not helped. The debt is very high, but have paid down a large amount. He is doing more research to see what is the appropriate debt level they should have. He will wait.
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A fall in WTI prices has not helped. The debt is very high, but have paid down a large amount. He is doing more research to see what is the appropriate debt level they should have. He will wait.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 26, 2019
They simply have the highest beta to rising oil prices. By next year, two-thirds of their production goes directly to the US Gulf Coast and getting preferential pricing. They are trading at a 31% yield on free cash-flow. Great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.34)
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
April 26, 2019
They simply have the highest beta to rising oil prices. By next year, two-thirds of their production goes directly to the US Gulf Coast and getting preferential pricing. They are trading at a 31% yield on free cash-flow. Great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.34)
Eric Nuttall
Price
$6.050
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
April 15, 2019
He's trimmed his energy holdings to 5%, but is now buying back because energy is coming back. MEG is his top choice here and bought some last week. MEG is the most undervalued Canadian energy stock. Oil though can be volatile.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
April 15, 2019
He's trimmed his energy holdings to 5%, but is now buying back because energy is coming back. MEG is his top choice here and bought some last week. MEG is the most undervalued Canadian energy stock. Oil though can be volatile.
Michael Decter
Price
$6.140
Owned
Yes
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