MEG Energy Corp

MEG-T

Analysis and Opinions about MEG-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 19, 2019
(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 40%) They need to pay down debt. They trade at a 37% free cash flow yield. It's the biggest name in his fund. Their biggest knock is their balance sheet, 4x debt-to-cash flow. They should NOT be buying back stocks, but instead pay down debt. He expects them to arrive at an industry level of 2-2.5x cash-to-debt flow in two years, and by then could pay a 35% dividend or privatize three years after that point. A high-quality name. Through pipelines and rails, next year they can ship 66% of their oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. He expects a killer quarter coming up.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 40%) They need to pay down debt. They trade at a 37% free cash flow yield. It's the biggest name in his fund. Their biggest knock is their balance sheet, 4x debt-to-cash flow. They should NOT be buying back stocks, but instead pay down debt. He expects them to arrive at an industry level of 2-2.5x cash-to-debt flow in two years, and by then could pay a 35% dividend or privatize three years after that point. A high-quality name. Through pipelines and rails, next year they can ship 66% of their oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. He expects a killer quarter coming up.
WAIT
WAIT
May 24, 2019
A fall in WTI prices has not helped. The debt is very high, but have paid down a large amount. He is doing more research to see what is the appropriate debt level they should have. He will wait.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
A fall in WTI prices has not helped. The debt is very high, but have paid down a large amount. He is doing more research to see what is the appropriate debt level they should have. He will wait.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 26, 2019
They simply have the highest beta to rising oil prices. By next year, two-thirds of their production goes directly to the US Gulf Coast and getting preferential pricing. They are trading at a 31% yield on free cash-flow. Great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.34)
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
April 26, 2019
They simply have the highest beta to rising oil prices. By next year, two-thirds of their production goes directly to the US Gulf Coast and getting preferential pricing. They are trading at a 31% yield on free cash-flow. Great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.34)
BUY
BUY
April 15, 2019
He's trimmed his energy holdings to 5%, but is now buying back because energy is coming back. MEG is his top choice here and bought some last week. MEG is the most undervalued Canadian energy stock. Oil though can be volatile.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
April 15, 2019
He's trimmed his energy holdings to 5%, but is now buying back because energy is coming back. MEG is his top choice here and bought some last week. MEG is the most undervalued Canadian energy stock. Oil though can be volatile.
BUY
BUY
March 11, 2019
All oil stocks have had a nice bounce-back. The risk behind crude is over and upside is coming. He'd buy this and oil stocks.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
March 11, 2019
All oil stocks have had a nice bounce-back. The risk behind crude is over and upside is coming. He'd buy this and oil stocks.
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2019
MEG was down on release of Q4 results. It gives exposure to heavy oil in Alberta. They can keep production cap and generate $527M in free cashflow based on $60 oil next year. If they chose to buyback stock, they could purchase 36% of their shares outstanding in 1 year. They are focusing on delevering the company. They can service their current debt and thinks they may be better off to buyback shares. Extremely undervalued.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG was down on release of Q4 results. It gives exposure to heavy oil in Alberta. They can keep production cap and generate $527M in free cashflow based on $60 oil next year. If they chose to buyback stock, they could purchase 36% of their shares outstanding in 1 year. They are focusing on delevering the company. They can service their current debt and thinks they may be better off to buyback shares. Extremely undervalued.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 8, 2019
The street is not appreciating how much cash flow this company is generating. The balance sheet at $55 oil or higher is absolutely not an issue. Yield = 0.0% (Analysts’ price target is $7.78)
Show full opinionHide full opinion
The street is not appreciating how much cash flow this company is generating. The balance sheet at $55 oil or higher is absolutely not an issue. Yield = 0.0% (Analysts’ price target is $7.78)
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 25, 2019
What happened with Husky? He has to be vague. HSE-T stepping away from its tender of MEG-T was not about Alberta curtailment risk. It was not about the lack of pipeline progress. Rumours suggest 60% of the shares were tendered. So it makes him think it was something too sensitive to be officially released. Perhaps there could have been an outside entity or government that would not allow Husky to purchase MEG. That is as far has he is going. MEG has been a huge winner for the production curtailment as the WCS differentials have tightened.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
January 25, 2019
What happened with Husky? He has to be vague. HSE-T stepping away from its tender of MEG-T was not about Alberta curtailment risk. It was not about the lack of pipeline progress. Rumours suggest 60% of the shares were tendered. So it makes him think it was something too sensitive to be officially released. Perhaps there could have been an outside entity or government that would not allow Husky to purchase MEG. That is as far has he is going. MEG has been a huge winner for the production curtailment as the WCS differentials have tightened.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 25, 2019
The highest leverage to both rising oil prices and tighter WCS differentials. He thinks WCS will trade to $17-$20 for the next few years. For every $1 change in oil prices, he thinks their share price will improve by $1. Husky walking away was a great opportunity to buy at a great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.23)
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
January 25, 2019
The highest leverage to both rising oil prices and tighter WCS differentials. He thinks WCS will trade to $17-$20 for the next few years. For every $1 change in oil prices, he thinks their share price will improve by $1. Husky walking away was a great opportunity to buy at a great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.23)
WATCH
WATCH
January 17, 2019
It dropped because Husky dropped their bid for the company. Can MEG make it on its own or are there other potential buyers – he would not hold his breath. It will continue to de-lever and become more attractive in the marketplace. Another potential bidder may not have to be in a hurry to buy it.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
January 17, 2019
It dropped because Husky dropped their bid for the company. Can MEG make it on its own or are there other potential buyers – he would not hold his breath. It will continue to de-lever and become more attractive in the marketplace. Another potential bidder may not have to be in a hurry to buy it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 14, 2019
Taking a counter-cyclical view, Husky is investing upstream. His best guess is that the Husky closes. It's unlikely there'll be a white knight for MEG.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
January 14, 2019
Taking a counter-cyclical view, Husky is investing upstream. His best guess is that the Husky closes. It's unlikely there'll be a white knight for MEG.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2018
Breaking News The unsolicited offer has been given an exemption by the ASC that avoids having to provide identical consideration to all securities holders. This means MEG will plan to waive its shareholder rights plan, but still plans to reject the offer the Husky. He feels this is an unusual decision by the ASC and MEG, but does not have an opinion on the issues.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
December 21, 2018
Breaking News The unsolicited offer has been given an exemption by the ASC that avoids having to provide identical consideration to all securities holders. This means MEG will plan to waive its shareholder rights plan, but still plans to reject the offer the Husky. He feels this is an unusual decision by the ASC and MEG, but does not have an opinion on the issues.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2018
Do you like the MEG - HSE merger? He has been a supporter of tightening heavy differentials. He no longer holds MEG-T and regets it -- because it really is a high torque heavy oil company. The street does not think HSE-T will have to increase the bid to buy them. If you hold MEG-T you are essentially holding HSE-T now. He thinks there are better companies to invest in to maximize your exposure to heavy oil improving.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
December 14, 2018
Do you like the MEG - HSE merger? He has been a supporter of tightening heavy differentials. He no longer holds MEG-T and regets it -- because it really is a high torque heavy oil company. The street does not think HSE-T will have to increase the bid to buy them. If you hold MEG-T you are essentially holding HSE-T now. He thinks there are better companies to invest in to maximize your exposure to heavy oil improving.
HOLD
HOLD
December 12, 2018
When the Husky deal was announced he sold their position into this. The energy space is out of favour right now -- especially heavy oils. He would not step in, but would continue to hold if he had it.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
December 12, 2018
When the Husky deal was announced he sold their position into this. The energy space is out of favour right now -- especially heavy oils. He would not step in, but would continue to hold if he had it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 28, 2018
Husky Energy is bidding for this at $11/share and trading at $8.01 today, so if the bid is approved, will a shareholder get that $11/share buying at $8.01? No, because it's not a cash bid, but a hostile one in shares at 0.57 shares of Husky. Meg is tracking Husky down. It's now trading at a 60-cent implied discount to the Husky bid. He expects this deal to go through. Meg is worth about $8.60/share in terms of Husky shares, then you'll end up owning shares of Husky, then you can decide what to do with them (hold or sell). So, you'd buy shares of Meg, short Husky and hope to pick up that 60 cents when the deal closes.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
November 28, 2018
Husky Energy is bidding for this at $11/share and trading at $8.01 today, so if the bid is approved, will a shareholder get that $11/share buying at $8.01? No, because it's not a cash bid, but a hostile one in shares at 0.57 shares of Husky. Meg is tracking Husky down. It's now trading at a 60-cent implied discount to the Husky bid. He expects this deal to go through. Meg is worth about $8.60/share in terms of Husky shares, then you'll end up owning shares of Husky, then you can decide what to do with them (hold or sell). So, you'd buy shares of Meg, short Husky and hope to pick up that 60 cents when the deal closes.
Showing 16 to 30 of 73 entries