MEG Energy Corp

MEG-T

Analysis and Opinions about MEG-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 25, 2019
The highest leverage to both rising oil prices and tighter WCS differentials. He thinks WCS will trade to $17-$20 for the next few years. For every $1 change in oil prices, he thinks their share price will improve by $1. Husky walking away was a great opportunity to buy at a great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.23)
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
January 25, 2019
The highest leverage to both rising oil prices and tighter WCS differentials. He thinks WCS will trade to $17-$20 for the next few years. For every $1 change in oil prices, he thinks their share price will improve by $1. Husky walking away was a great opportunity to buy at a great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.23)
WATCH
WATCH
January 17, 2019
It dropped because Husky dropped their bid for the company. Can MEG make it on its own or are there other potential buyers – he would not hold his breath. It will continue to de-lever and become more attractive in the marketplace. Another potential bidder may not have to be in a hurry to buy it.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
January 17, 2019
It dropped because Husky dropped their bid for the company. Can MEG make it on its own or are there other potential buyers – he would not hold his breath. It will continue to de-lever and become more attractive in the marketplace. Another potential bidder may not have to be in a hurry to buy it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 14, 2019
Taking a counter-cyclical view, Husky is investing upstream. His best guess is that the Husky closes. It's unlikely there'll be a white knight for MEG.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
January 14, 2019
Taking a counter-cyclical view, Husky is investing upstream. His best guess is that the Husky closes. It's unlikely there'll be a white knight for MEG.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 21, 2018
Breaking News The unsolicited offer has been given an exemption by the ASC that avoids having to provide identical consideration to all securities holders. This means MEG will plan to waive its shareholder rights plan, but still plans to reject the offer the Husky. He feels this is an unusual decision by the ASC and MEG, but does not have an opinion on the issues.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
December 21, 2018
Breaking News The unsolicited offer has been given an exemption by the ASC that avoids having to provide identical consideration to all securities holders. This means MEG will plan to waive its shareholder rights plan, but still plans to reject the offer the Husky. He feels this is an unusual decision by the ASC and MEG, but does not have an opinion on the issues.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 14, 2018
Do you like the MEG - HSE merger? He has been a supporter of tightening heavy differentials. He no longer holds MEG-T and regets it -- because it really is a high torque heavy oil company. The street does not think HSE-T will have to increase the bid to buy them. If you hold MEG-T you are essentially holding HSE-T now. He thinks there are better companies to invest in to maximize your exposure to heavy oil improving.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
December 14, 2018
Do you like the MEG - HSE merger? He has been a supporter of tightening heavy differentials. He no longer holds MEG-T and regets it -- because it really is a high torque heavy oil company. The street does not think HSE-T will have to increase the bid to buy them. If you hold MEG-T you are essentially holding HSE-T now. He thinks there are better companies to invest in to maximize your exposure to heavy oil improving.
HOLD
HOLD
December 12, 2018
When the Husky deal was announced he sold their position into this. The energy space is out of favour right now -- especially heavy oils. He would not step in, but would continue to hold if he had it.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
December 12, 2018
When the Husky deal was announced he sold their position into this. The energy space is out of favour right now -- especially heavy oils. He would not step in, but would continue to hold if he had it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 28, 2018
Husky Energy is bidding for this at $11/share and trading at $8.01 today, so if the bid is approved, will a shareholder get that $11/share buying at $8.01? No, because it's not a cash bid, but a hostile one in shares at 0.57 shares of Husky. Meg is tracking Husky down. It's now trading at a 60-cent implied discount to the Husky bid. He expects this deal to go through. Meg is worth about $8.60/share in terms of Husky shares, then you'll end up owning shares of Husky, then you can decide what to do with them (hold or sell). So, you'd buy shares of Meg, short Husky and hope to pick up that 60 cents when the deal closes.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
November 28, 2018
Husky Energy is bidding for this at $11/share and trading at $8.01 today, so if the bid is approved, will a shareholder get that $11/share buying at $8.01? No, because it's not a cash bid, but a hostile one in shares at 0.57 shares of Husky. Meg is tracking Husky down. It's now trading at a 60-cent implied discount to the Husky bid. He expects this deal to go through. Meg is worth about $8.60/share in terms of Husky shares, then you'll end up owning shares of Husky, then you can decide what to do with them (hold or sell). So, you'd buy shares of Meg, short Husky and hope to pick up that 60 cents when the deal closes.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 16, 2018
He sees the deal going through in January. He thinks Husky still needs to increase their bid slightly. Currently MEG is trading at a 4% discount to the bid. It is better risk reward to buy their corporate bonds vs stock, and therefore some have been shorting the stock.
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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
November 16, 2018
He sees the deal going through in January. He thinks Husky still needs to increase their bid slightly. Currently MEG is trading at a 4% discount to the bid. It is better risk reward to buy their corporate bonds vs stock, and therefore some have been shorting the stock.
HOLD
HOLD
October 15, 2018

It is the subject of a hostile takeover challenge. He thinks you should get the opinion of more under-the-hood kinds of guys. The market is trading above the takeover bid which indicates there is a possible higher bid.

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
October 15, 2018

It is the subject of a hostile takeover challenge. He thinks you should get the opinion of more under-the-hood kinds of guys. The market is trading above the takeover bid which indicates there is a possible higher bid.

WAIT
WAIT
October 10, 2018

Trading slightly above the take-out price (Husky is doing a hostile takeover). Maybe Cenovus will step in. It's difficult to
buy the oil sands given the deep WCS discount. Wait.

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
October 10, 2018

Trading slightly above the take-out price (Husky is doing a hostile takeover). Maybe Cenovus will step in. It's difficult to
buy the oil sands given the deep WCS discount. Wait.

HOLD
HOLD
October 1, 2018

There is a hostile takeover attempt in play. He understands that this thing could trade a lot higher and there may be competing bids coming in. The market senses there are potentially other players that could come in. There is not much that technical analysis can do when M&A comes into play.

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
October 1, 2018

There is a hostile takeover attempt in play. He understands that this thing could trade a lot higher and there may be competing bids coming in. The market senses there are potentially other players that could come in. There is not much that technical analysis can do when M&A comes into play.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 14, 2018

About 1/3 of their production is moving to US Gulf Coast markets, with the help of rail. He expects the heavy differential to narrow towards $20. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.33)

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
September 14, 2018

About 1/3 of their production is moving to US Gulf Coast markets, with the help of rail. He expects the heavy differential to narrow towards $20. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.33)

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 17, 2018

He is focused on WTI reaching over $80 next year and believes the market is over extrapolating the current heavy oil differential weakness too far into the future. The stock has sold off by 30% recently and thinks the NAV is $20 at current oil prices. They have large tax loss pools to draw on in the future. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.39)

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
August 17, 2018

He is focused on WTI reaching over $80 next year and believes the market is over extrapolating the current heavy oil differential weakness too far into the future. The stock has sold off by 30% recently and thinks the NAV is $20 at current oil prices. They have large tax loss pools to draw on in the future. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.39)

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 8, 2018

A lot of consolidation around $6 over the past two years. The rally in April was solid and there is likely some profit taking going on. He is concerned about a potential drop to $7 very easily with a 6% drop today based on lower oil prices. It looks very tricky right now and it looks risky right now. (Analysts’ price target is $11.39)

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)
August 8, 2018

A lot of consolidation around $6 over the past two years. The rally in April was solid and there is likely some profit taking going on. He is concerned about a potential drop to $7 very easily with a 6% drop today based on lower oil prices. It looks very tricky right now and it looks risky right now. (Analysts’ price target is $11.39)

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 20, 2018

He is incredibly bullish on oil. Meg offers the highest leverage in cash flow relative to oil price. They are a 100% pure play heavy oil producer. Meg offers massive leverage. Stock is down 16% this week. Sees over 100% upside if $80 oil. (Analysts’ price target is $11.17)

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He is incredibly bullish on oil. Meg offers the highest leverage in cash flow relative to oil price. They are a 100% pure play heavy oil producer. Meg offers massive leverage. Stock is down 16% this week. Sees over 100% upside if $80 oil. (Analysts’ price target is $11.17)

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