AGF Management (B)

AGF.B-T

TSE:AGF.B

6.43
0.00 (0.00%)
AGF Management Limited is a premier Canadian-based investment management firm serving institutions and individuals around the globe since 1957.
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Analysis and Opinions about AGF.B-T

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Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 14, 2019
Is there any growth in the investment business? AGF's balance sheet is too big for what they earn. Potential write-offs must happen to bring that down. Asset management businesses are being killed. $10.84 is his target price--lots of upside and they can cover their dividend.
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Is there any growth in the investment business? AGF's balance sheet is too big for what they earn. Potential write-offs must happen to bring that down. Asset management businesses are being killed. $10.84 is his target price--lots of upside and they can cover their dividend.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 6, 2018

He has owned it in the past and sold a while ago because the share price dropped. The big issue is that they have a lot of margin pressure facing them. They are struggling against a tide. The share price is cheap but you need to look at where the industry is going.

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He has owned it in the past and sold a while ago because the share price dropped. The big issue is that they have a lot of margin pressure facing them. They are struggling against a tide. The share price is cheap but you need to look at where the industry is going.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 25, 2018

(A Past Top Pick on July 26, 2017, Down 6%) Hasn't done much and has disappointed. Its UK division is worth much more than the market gives it credit for.

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(A Past Top Pick on July 26, 2017, Down 6%) Hasn't done much and has disappointed. Its UK division is worth much more than the market gives it credit for.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 13, 2018

(A Top Pick July 20/17 Down 4%) The gain has evaporated into a slight loss, but he sees this entering into a bullish seasonal cycle so will hold it. The risk-reward is very good right now. There could be take-out rumours soon as the big banks are purchasing such assets.

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(A Top Pick July 20/17 Down 4%) The gain has evaporated into a slight loss, but he sees this entering into a bullish seasonal cycle so will hold it. The risk-reward is very good right now. There could be take-out rumours soon as the big banks are purchasing such assets.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 5, 2018

(Past Top Pick on January 26, 2018, Down 15%) He sold at $7.17. He bought it because it was a turnaround story. Mutual fund companies got hit in February. He lost less than 7% and moved on.

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(Past Top Pick on January 26, 2018, Down 15%) He sold at $7.17. He bought it because it was a turnaround story. Mutual fund companies got hit in February. He lost less than 7% and moved on.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 30, 2018

(A Top Pick July 20/17, Up 0.69%) He still likes it. It has an excellent dividend and it could be a takeout candidate. It will have resistance at $7.25. It has a cup and handle formation with the handle not quite formed. If it gets above $8.60 it will be a screaming buy.

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(A Top Pick July 20/17, Up 0.69%) He still likes it. It has an excellent dividend and it could be a takeout candidate. It will have resistance at $7.25. It has a cup and handle formation with the handle not quite formed. If it gets above $8.60 it will be a screaming buy.

HOLD
HOLD
February 8, 2018

One of Canada’s oldest Mutual Fund companies. 20 billion in retail mutual funds. They got caught within the trap of investors looking for ETFs. They tried to make a shift into the alt space and they had some modest success in the area. They are going to suffer in the short term from a lot of the backlash towards higher fees and underperforming funds. Redemptions seem to have stabilized. Valuation makes sense. Dividend is 4.7% probably safe in the short term.

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One of Canada’s oldest Mutual Fund companies. 20 billion in retail mutual funds. They got caught within the trap of investors looking for ETFs. They tried to make a shift into the alt space and they had some modest success in the area. They are going to suffer in the short term from a lot of the backlash towards higher fees and underperforming funds. Redemptions seem to have stabilized. Valuation makes sense. Dividend is 4.7% probably safe in the short term.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 26, 2018

The last year on this has been a turnaround story. It has pretty good value and pretty good momentum. It went through a tough patch between 2011 and 2016, tougher regulations, tougher competition. They now have new management, and are rebranding their name. They’re going into infrastructure, factor based exchange traded funds and innovative ideas. (Analysts' price target is $8.75.)

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The last year on this has been a turnaround story. It has pretty good value and pretty good momentum. It went through a tough patch between 2011 and 2016, tougher regulations, tougher competition. They now have new management, and are rebranding their name. They’re going into infrastructure, factor based exchange traded funds and innovative ideas. (Analysts' price target is $8.75.)

HOLD
HOLD
November 16, 2017

It was a turnaround of sorts and had problems over the years. They were losing assets and have turned that around. Once CRA issues are cleared up it should go up. At some point he thinks someone will buy it.

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It was a turnaround of sorts and had problems over the years. They were losing assets and have turned that around. Once CRA issues are cleared up it should go up. At some point he thinks someone will buy it.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 14, 2017

People were worried about their survival. They have survived, but thinks it is not a great industry right now. They are having trouble gaining assets. Fees are still under pressure, which means margins are under pressure. He wouldn’t rush out to buy the stock.

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People were worried about their survival. They have survived, but thinks it is not a great industry right now. They are having trouble gaining assets. Fees are still under pressure, which means margins are under pressure. He wouldn’t rush out to buy the stock.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 26, 2017

This has been having a huge turnaround lately. They brought on a new president who is focused on trying to get the performance more consistent with the underlying funds. That has slowed down the redemptions. Thinks the next step will be where they go from slowing down to where they will actually start to see net inflows. Dividend yield of 4.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $7.)

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This has been having a huge turnaround lately. They brought on a new president who is focused on trying to get the performance more consistent with the underlying funds. That has slowed down the redemptions. Thinks the next step will be where they go from slowing down to where they will actually start to see net inflows. Dividend yield of 4.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $7.)

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 20, 2017

This sort of fits in with his pro-growth theme. Financials are part of that. This one is a bit unique. Chart shows a long downtrend, which it broke through in April. You also got a signal in June for the longer-term. They didn’t execute very well for the last number of years, and were slow to change. Pays a decent dividend. Thinks there are a lot of tailwinds for this company. (Analysts’ price target is $7.)

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This sort of fits in with his pro-growth theme. Financials are part of that. This one is a bit unique. Chart shows a long downtrend, which it broke through in April. You also got a signal in June for the longer-term. They didn’t execute very well for the last number of years, and were slow to change. Pays a decent dividend. Thinks there are a lot of tailwinds for this company. (Analysts’ price target is $7.)

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 13, 2017

* Short*. (Top Pick Jun 10’16, Down 47.16%) There has been more enthusiasm for the asset managers. He thinks the industry as a whole is still going to suffer from the continuing trend.

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* Short*. (Top Pick Jun 10’16, Down 47.16%) There has been more enthusiasm for the asset managers. He thinks the industry as a whole is still going to suffer from the continuing trend.

HOLD
HOLD
April 4, 2017

This is cheap. They are sitting on a lot of assets and earning fees from them. The asset management base has changed in the last 5 years. There has been a tremendous amount of fee compression. It doesn’t own its own distribution. This is probably fairly valued. Has a very high yield which can sometimes be a concern, but is probably safe for the foreseeable future. If looking for a new name, there are probably other areas where he would look.

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This is cheap. They are sitting on a lot of assets and earning fees from them. The asset management base has changed in the last 5 years. There has been a tremendous amount of fee compression. It doesn’t own its own distribution. This is probably fairly valued. Has a very high yield which can sometimes be a concern, but is probably safe for the foreseeable future. If looking for a new name, there are probably other areas where he would look.

SELL
SELL
November 15, 2016

Market Call Minute. There is not a lot of earnings momentum on this, and they have to do a lot internally to get their business model going.

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Market Call Minute. There is not a lot of earnings momentum on this, and they have to do a lot internally to get their business model going.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 14, 2016

The problem is that they just sell mutual funds and are under huge duress right now to be able to do something more than just that. Expects they will come out with a brand of ETF’s. Net outflows are continuing. It is not a good time to be a mutual fund company. When CRM2 regulations come out, people will start to see exactly what they are paying in fees, which are much, much higher than ETF’s. 6.4% dividend yield.

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The problem is that they just sell mutual funds and are under huge duress right now to be able to do something more than just that. Expects they will come out with a brand of ETF’s. Net outflows are continuing. It is not a good time to be a mutual fund company. When CRM2 regulations come out, people will start to see exactly what they are paying in fees, which are much, much higher than ETF’s. 6.4% dividend yield.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 6, 2016

Has a negative view on this and had it as a Top Short in June. His concern is largely with CRM2 regulations that take place on July 15, that will have a strong impact on companies such as this.

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Has a negative view on this and had it as a Top Short in June. His concern is largely with CRM2 regulations that take place on July 15, that will have a strong impact on companies such as this.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 10, 2016

*SHORT* With the new disclosure rules coming into play on July 15, it is really going to hurt the mutual fund companies. There has been pressure on mutual fund fees and that is going to accelerate once the disclosure rules come into play. Also, ETF’s are going to continue taking market share away from mutual fund companies. Dividend yield of 6.25%.

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*SHORT* With the new disclosure rules coming into play on July 15, it is really going to hurt the mutual fund companies. There has been pressure on mutual fund fees and that is going to accelerate once the disclosure rules come into play. Also, ETF’s are going to continue taking market share away from mutual fund companies. Dividend yield of 6.25%.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 6, 2016

This is a no go. It is in structural decline. Fees are far too high considering the competition. Turnarounds seldom turn. It is not an investment he is comfortable with. No analysts have a buy recommendation.

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This is a no go. It is in structural decline. Fees are far too high considering the competition. Turnarounds seldom turn. It is not an investment he is comfortable with. No analysts have a buy recommendation.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 14, 2016

Doesn’t like dual class shares. Anyone who is in the mutual fund business has a real problem with ETF’s. You can basically duplicate diversification in a portfolio, pick your spots, and decide you will run with that. This wasn’t really available when mutual funds became popular. He would use ETF’s instead.

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Doesn’t like dual class shares. Anyone who is in the mutual fund business has a real problem with ETF’s. You can basically duplicate diversification in a portfolio, pick your spots, and decide you will run with that. This wasn’t really available when mutual funds became popular. He would use ETF’s instead.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 15, 2015

Chart looks like a ski slope. They are going down because they are losing market share, mainly to ETF’s. Currently this is in a bit of a consolidation phase. Financials generally do well from January 23 into mid April.

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Chart looks like a ski slope. They are going down because they are losing market share, mainly to ETF’s. Currently this is in a bit of a consolidation phase. Financials generally do well from January 23 into mid April.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 11, 2015

This is a classic value trap. A lot of the asset managers are doing very, very poorly. You just don’t want to get caught up in this, because assets can continually decline. ETF’s are attracting so many assets now. There is a lot of fat in the organization. He would choose CI Financial (CIX-T) instead.

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This is a classic value trap. A lot of the asset managers are doing very, very poorly. You just don’t want to get caught up in this, because assets can continually decline. ETF’s are attracting so many assets now. There is a lot of fat in the organization. He would choose CI Financial (CIX-T) instead.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 9, 2015

You shouldn’t be buying this. Has a big dividend yield and trading at 10X earnings. They face a lot of issues including dual share structure. Have also had a declining revenue base over the last little while. They are suffering from poor performance with high cost funds in a world where investment advisors will have to list how much they make on each fund through MERs.

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You shouldn’t be buying this. Has a big dividend yield and trading at 10X earnings. They face a lot of issues including dual share structure. Have also had a declining revenue base over the last little while. They are suffering from poor performance with high cost funds in a world where investment advisors will have to list how much they make on each fund through MERs.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 8, 2015

They cut their dividend once. It is safe now. They continue to suffer redemptions. He would prefer a bank with a mutual fund business than to own a mutual fund company. They have grown big enough that they can suffer through. New regulations will make it a very challenging business.

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They cut their dividend once. It is safe now. They continue to suffer redemptions. He would prefer a bank with a mutual fund business than to own a mutual fund company. They have grown big enough that they can suffer through. New regulations will make it a very challenging business.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 30, 2015

They have not been the leader in their field. They are in a down trend since the end of 2013. It does not seem like there is anywhere to stop.

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AGF Management (B) (AGF.B-T)
September 30, 2015

They have not been the leader in their field. They are in a down trend since the end of 2013. It does not seem like there is anywhere to stop.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 14, 2015

They rely on third party advisors. It means your performance has to be very good, which it has not been in recent years. Rev Can is doing a review of some of their tax filings and this should weigh on the stock price for a while.

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AGF Management (B) (AGF.B-T)
September 14, 2015

They rely on third party advisors. It means your performance has to be very good, which it has not been in recent years. Rev Can is doing a review of some of their tax filings and this should weigh on the stock price for a while.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 13, 2015

Can this return to a $12 stock? It is going to be tough. They had a big war chest after they sold off their trust division, and spent all that money on stock buybacks at significantly higher prices than the current price. They continue to pay out a dividend which is not really sustainable. The performance of the mutual funds has been challenged and investors are moving away from them. This is an area that you don’t need to be exposed to.

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Can this return to a $12 stock? It is going to be tough. They had a big war chest after they sold off their trust division, and spent all that money on stock buybacks at significantly higher prices than the current price. They continue to pay out a dividend which is not really sustainable. The performance of the mutual funds has been challenged and investors are moving away from them. This is an area that you don’t need to be exposed to.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 2, 2015

Looking at all the asset managers, this is the one that he is least optimistic about their prospects. These have come under a lot of scrutiny and pressure. In order to improve performance, the company has taken on additional expenses, so you are seeing the revenue decline and expenses go up. It is very likely that their AEM continues to shrink.

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Looking at all the asset managers, this is the one that he is least optimistic about their prospects. These have come under a lot of scrutiny and pressure. In order to improve performance, the company has taken on additional expenses, so you are seeing the revenue decline and expenses go up. It is very likely that their AEM continues to shrink.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 18, 2015

(Top Pick May 5/14, Down 41.47%) He felt it would be turned around, but in the spring he realized the loss of assets under management had caused a cut in the dividend and so he got out.

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(Top Pick May 5/14, Down 41.47%) He felt it would be turned around, but in the spring he realized the loss of assets under management had caused a cut in the dividend and so he got out.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 26, 2015

Money management, overall, is a growth business, but not so much for this company. They have had terrible performance. They’ve lost assets and money managers. This is a nepotism company.

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Money management, overall, is a growth business, but not so much for this company. They have had terrible performance. They’ve lost assets and money managers. This is a nepotism company.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 27, 2015

(Top Pick May 5/14, Down 34.25%) He got out. He had thought they could turn the AGF assets around. There are fairly large gross outflows from the mutual funds. They had to cut the dividend. It’s dead money for now.

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(Top Pick May 5/14, Down 34.25%) He got out. He had thought they could turn the AGF assets around. There are fairly large gross outflows from the mutual funds. They had to cut the dividend. It’s dead money for now.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 10, 2015

He tends not to like investing in companies where there is one family that is in control, because sometimes all the right business decisions don’t get made. This is a company that has struggled over the last few years, even more than other independent fund companies. Prefers CI Financial (CIX-T).

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He tends not to like investing in companies where there is one family that is in control, because sometimes all the right business decisions don’t get made. This is a company that has struggled over the last few years, even more than other independent fund companies. Prefers CI Financial (CIX-T).

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 28, 2015

Not in complete financial distress, but have spent their cash reserves buying back stock over time. Their performance in the mutual fund business has been challenged and they have been losing assets. The revenue base has been going down, which impinges on their ability to pay out financing, so have been building up a little debt. They are going to be challenged because there are new regulations coming, where investment advisors are going to have to disclose all the fees that customers are paying. People are going to start to see how much money they pay into mutual funds. This will put pressure on sales or on fees. Either would be a negative for the company.

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Not in complete financial distress, but have spent their cash reserves buying back stock over time. Their performance in the mutual fund business has been challenged and they have been losing assets. The revenue base has been going down, which impinges on their ability to pay out financing, so have been building up a little debt. They are going to be challenged because there are new regulations coming, where investment advisors are going to have to disclose all the fees that customers are paying. People are going to start to see how much money they pay into mutual funds. This will put pressure on sales or on fees. Either would be a negative for the company.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 26, 2015

They had a dividend cut. It is very interesting here. Down another 75 cents would be worth looking.

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They had a dividend cut. It is very interesting here. Down another 75 cents would be worth looking.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 21, 2015

People hold this for the dividend. The company seems to have a long-term difficulty in gathering assets, keeping them and growing the business. There are better places to put your money.

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People hold this for the dividend. The company seems to have a long-term difficulty in gathering assets, keeping them and growing the business. There are better places to put your money.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 5, 2015

Chart shows a steady slip of BV, so value is not coming in, but is going out. However, at $8, it is on pretty strong technical support. At this juncture, given their earnings forecasts for the next 12 months of $0.69, the FMV is quite a bit higher. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a bounce in the company at this juncture. Despite the long-term, the short term looks very interesting.

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Chart shows a steady slip of BV, so value is not coming in, but is going out. However, at $8, it is on pretty strong technical support. At this juncture, given their earnings forecasts for the next 12 months of $0.69, the FMV is quite a bit higher. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a bounce in the company at this juncture. Despite the long-term, the short term looks very interesting.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 16, 2014

Cut their dividend by about 70%, which was a big surprise; because that was the only thing investors seemed to have with this company. If you own, you are left with a company that is in decline, its assets (net sales) he believes are in decline. Fundamentals and price trends have not been attractive to him. He would not be interested in buying this.

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Cut their dividend by about 70%, which was a big surprise; because that was the only thing investors seemed to have with this company. If you own, you are left with a company that is in decline, its assets (net sales) he believes are in decline. Fundamentals and price trends have not been attractive to him. He would not be interested in buying this.

WAIT
WAIT
December 9, 2014

Thinks this has been entrenched management. Have always been independent and have always had a belief that they could sustain the dividend. The pressure of the TSX coming down affecting Assets under Management (AUM) made them realize they weren’t earning their dividend and they have to do something about it. Manufacturer of mutual funds, which effectively is what they are, isn’t that proprietary anymore. The sweet spot in this business is actually dealing with the customer. Give it about a month. At 5.5X EBITDA, it is pretty cheap.

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Thinks this has been entrenched management. Have always been independent and have always had a belief that they could sustain the dividend. The pressure of the TSX coming down affecting Assets under Management (AUM) made them realize they weren’t earning their dividend and they have to do something about it. Manufacturer of mutual funds, which effectively is what they are, isn’t that proprietary anymore. The sweet spot in this business is actually dealing with the customer. Give it about a month. At 5.5X EBITDA, it is pretty cheap.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 9, 2014

Cut their dividend by 70%, which was a real surprise. Has a lot of cash on the balance sheet to fund the dividend for a number of years.

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Cut their dividend by 70%, which was a real surprise. Has a lot of cash on the balance sheet to fund the dividend for a number of years.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 2, 2014

Has been in an asset decline for a few years now and losing some business on the institutional side. Retail side is not growing either. Highly Canadian equity, which has hurt them in a relative sense in the last couple of years. Dividend has been double-digit for a couple of years and he thought they would have cut by now. The thing to watch is “assets under management”. If it continues to fall, they are going to have to cut.

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Has been in an asset decline for a few years now and losing some business on the institutional side. Retail side is not growing either. Highly Canadian equity, which has hurt them in a relative sense in the last couple of years. Dividend has been double-digit for a couple of years and he thought they would have cut by now. The thing to watch is “assets under management”. If it continues to fall, they are going to have to cut.