Argonaut Gold

AR-T

Analysis and Opinions about AR-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 17, 2015

(A Top Pick May 30/14. Down 56.22%.) This has the value driver that he focuses the most on, free cash flow from the El Castile and La Colorada mines in Mexico. A significant portion of their value lies in 3 development assets, which were going to get funded out of the free cash flow from Mexico. At the current gold price, their ability to fund those assets is now called into question. Because of this, investors have exited. He sees value here, and if his gold price forecasting comes to pass this company can regain its lost performance.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
June 17, 2015

(A Top Pick May 30/14. Down 56.22%.) This has the value driver that he focuses the most on, free cash flow from the El Castile and La Colorada mines in Mexico. A significant portion of their value lies in 3 development assets, which were going to get funded out of the free cash flow from Mexico. At the current gold price, their ability to fund those assets is now called into question. Because of this, investors have exited. He sees value here, and if his gold price forecasting comes to pass this company can regain its lost performance.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 10, 2015

(Market Call Minute.) Was a Mexican producer primarily, but has a mine in Ontario. He has found better places to be.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
June 10, 2015

(Market Call Minute.) Was a Mexican producer primarily, but has a mine in Ontario. He has found better places to be.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 1, 2015

Its gold mines are all in Mexico. Had a rainy season last fall and missed a quarter, the stock got hit and never really recovered. Hasn’t added to his holdings, but given the small amount of holding and the price that it is at, he has left it. If his outlook for gold got better, he would probably add to it. This has everything you would look for in a gold mine with $700 costs, growing production, cash flow and a good balance sheet.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
June 1, 2015

Its gold mines are all in Mexico. Had a rainy season last fall and missed a quarter, the stock got hit and never really recovered. Hasn’t added to his holdings, but given the small amount of holding and the price that it is at, he has left it. If his outlook for gold got better, he would probably add to it. This has everything you would look for in a gold mine with $700 costs, growing production, cash flow and a good balance sheet.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 21, 2015

Had been buying before Christmas when it dipped on tax loss selling. Just reported a record 4th quarter production. Still cheap at under $3. Given that the outlook in gold has changed so much, you should see NAV’s in the $5.50-$6 range. He thinks the stock is worth $4 in the current environment. They are quite profitable at the current gold price level.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
January 21, 2015

Had been buying before Christmas when it dipped on tax loss selling. Just reported a record 4th quarter production. Still cheap at under $3. Given that the outlook in gold has changed so much, you should see NAV’s in the $5.50-$6 range. He thinks the stock is worth $4 in the current environment. They are quite profitable at the current gold price level.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 12, 2014

With gold prices weak, it is hard for the stocks to do very well. Has been picking away at this one recently when it gets around $4. Production costs are under $700. They have a couple of good quarters coming. The short-term strength in the US$ and the lack of inflation, just doesn’t bode well for a 4-6 week outlook on gold. If you are either a gold bug or have patience, this would be a Buy.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
September 12, 2014

With gold prices weak, it is hard for the stocks to do very well. Has been picking away at this one recently when it gets around $4. Production costs are under $700. They have a couple of good quarters coming. The short-term strength in the US$ and the lack of inflation, just doesn’t bode well for a 4-6 week outlook on gold. If you are either a gold bug or have patience, this would be a Buy.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 21, 2014

Started to buy this again recently. Just reported production, which was about a 7% miss, so the stock has pulled back. Currently trading $0.65 from its NAV. There is production growth coming. This was just a quarter that got pushed into the back half of the year, so they kept guidance the same. Thinks it is easy for this to go to $5 again. This is a seasonally strong period for gold (and silver), so he thinks there is at least a trade in this. Low cost producer at about $700 an ounce.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
July 21, 2014

Started to buy this again recently. Just reported production, which was about a 7% miss, so the stock has pulled back. Currently trading $0.65 from its NAV. There is production growth coming. This was just a quarter that got pushed into the back half of the year, so they kept guidance the same. Thinks it is easy for this to go to $5 again. This is a seasonally strong period for gold (and silver), so he thinks there is at least a trade in this. Low cost producer at about $700 an ounce.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 30, 2014

Midsize gold producer in Mexico. 2 primary assets. Had a bit of recovery issue in one of their mines in the 4th quarter where it was chemically difficult to separate the gold from the ore. This resulted in lower-than-expected production, and lower than expected cash flow. That will change as we go through 2014 towards the back half of the year. Expects to see the mine moving to a better area, and production come back up. Feels the share price slide was unjustified. Fundamental value is north of $4.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
May 30, 2014

Midsize gold producer in Mexico. 2 primary assets. Had a bit of recovery issue in one of their mines in the 4th quarter where it was chemically difficult to separate the gold from the ore. This resulted in lower-than-expected production, and lower than expected cash flow. That will change as we go through 2014 towards the back half of the year. Expects to see the mine moving to a better area, and production come back up. Feels the share price slide was unjustified. Fundamental value is north of $4.

BUY
BUY
May 2, 2014

This is his only gold holding and is only a 1% holding in clients’ portfolios. Lost a court case recently on one of their Mexican mines. Still thinks they are going to get it, but it is a 6-9 month delay. That impacted the stock a little. Not hugely positive on gold, but wants to have a little bit of insurance. There is a fair amount of production growth coming over the next 3-4 years at costs of around $700 an ounce. That is still attractive.

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This is his only gold holding and is only a 1% holding in clients’ portfolios. Lost a court case recently on one of their Mexican mines. Still thinks they are going to get it, but it is a 6-9 month delay. That impacted the stock a little. Not hugely positive on gold, but wants to have a little bit of insurance. There is a fair amount of production growth coming over the next 3-4 years at costs of around $700 an ounce. That is still attractive.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 21, 2014

Gold is an industry he does not like. You are always battling two huge forces you can’t predict.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
April 21, 2014

Gold is an industry he does not like. You are always battling two huge forces you can’t predict.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 25, 2014

Q4 results came in reasonably good although there are a couple of questions that he still has. Cash costs came in lower, but they burned quite a bit of cash in the quarter. Their $125 million cash in the last quarter has been reduced to $80 million. There are some payments to Silver Standard (SSO-T) for assets they bought. Finds it expensive.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
March 25, 2014

Q4 results came in reasonably good although there are a couple of questions that he still has. Cash costs came in lower, but they burned quite a bit of cash in the quarter. Their $125 million cash in the last quarter has been reduced to $80 million. There are some payments to Silver Standard (SSO-T) for assets they bought. Finds it expensive.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 12, 2014

His only gold holding. Has lagged ever so slightly. Still one of the few ones that is going to have free cash flow down to $1000. It may never get that low. You want production growth and free cash flow at lower prices and this company has that. Had a tiny stumble at one of the mines in Mexico, which caused the 4th quarter to be under by $.02-$.03. It is getting fixed and he thinks the next quarter coming out will be good. Still buying.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
March 12, 2014

His only gold holding. Has lagged ever so slightly. Still one of the few ones that is going to have free cash flow down to $1000. It may never get that low. You want production growth and free cash flow at lower prices and this company has that. Had a tiny stumble at one of the mines in Mexico, which caused the 4th quarter to be under by $.02-$.03. It is getting fixed and he thinks the next quarter coming out will be good. Still buying.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 3, 2014

Likes it. Has an asset in Mexico and acquired a few over time and finally one in Ontario. They have free cash flow that will fund growth over time. 2014 guidance was lowered, but is reflected in the share price. Under $5 he would look to add. They have top tier management.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
February 3, 2014

Likes it. Has an asset in Mexico and acquired a few over time and finally one in Ontario. They have free cash flow that will fund growth over time. 2014 guidance was lowered, but is reflected in the share price. Under $5 he would look to add. They have top tier management.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
January 7, 2014

He has very little gold. These guys are really good operators. These guys have costs around $700 per oz. This is one of 4 companies in North America that has costs under $1000. Growth coming from production. Not a bad entry point if you want it for a little bit of insurance.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
January 7, 2014

He has very little gold. These guys are really good operators. These guys have costs around $700 per oz. This is one of 4 companies in North America that has costs under $1000. Growth coming from production. Not a bad entry point if you want it for a little bit of insurance.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 18, 2013

Problem is with the commodity, not the stock.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
October 18, 2013

Problem is with the commodity, not the stock.

SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
September 16, 2013

Has always been on a list of very good companies. No cash flow problem. This is a go to name. This would be a great time to buy it except that seasonality has run out. He would look for a bounce to take profits.

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Argonaut Gold (AR-T)
September 16, 2013

Has always been on a list of very good companies. No cash flow problem. This is a go to name. This would be a great time to buy it except that seasonality has run out. He would look for a bounce to take profits.

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