Exchange Income

EIF-T

Analysis and Opinions about EIF-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 10, 2020

A US company like EIF-T, and is it like Cargojet? No, not like Cargojet, and he can't compare EIF to an US company. But a Canadian comparable is Onex, a holding company that owns industrials and several small airlines that served remote regions (i.e. northern Quebec). All airlines are struggling now, but these remote areas still depend on airlines flying there. Onex also owns light industrials, like one they bought in the US recently. Well-managed and a roll-up story. Are astute acquirers. Also pays a juicy dividend.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
September 10, 2020

A US company like EIF-T, and is it like Cargojet? No, not like Cargojet, and he can't compare EIF to an US company. But a Canadian comparable is Onex, a holding company that owns industrials and several small airlines that served remote regions (i.e. northern Quebec). All airlines are struggling now, but these remote areas still depend on airlines flying there. Onex also owns light industrials, like one they bought in the US recently. Well-managed and a roll-up story. Are astute acquirers. Also pays a juicy dividend.

HOLD
HOLD
September 2, 2020
Overall, pretty good company, not well known. Mid-cap, so it will get beat up when there's volatility. Resilient business. Dividend is safe. No need to sell.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
September 2, 2020
Overall, pretty good company, not well known. Mid-cap, so it will get beat up when there's volatility. Resilient business. Dividend is safe. No need to sell.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 17, 2020
Take the money and run. Heavily levered company. 80% of their business is in airlines. You can but this cheaper for the coming 3-6 months. Trades at a high PE. A risky stock, but will be fine if/when we get a vaccine and people return to flying. Look at this in 6 months.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
August 17, 2020
Take the money and run. Heavily levered company. 80% of their business is in airlines. You can but this cheaper for the coming 3-6 months. Trades at a high PE. A risky stock, but will be fine if/when we get a vaccine and people return to flying. Look at this in 6 months.
BUY
BUY
August 4, 2020
They own air carriers and industrial businesses. The former is challenged, but the latter will weather this recession much better. They just announced a big acquisition of a company that installs glass in high-rises. They acquire well. The dividend is safe.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
August 4, 2020
They own air carriers and industrial businesses. The former is challenged, but the latter will weather this recession much better. They just announced a big acquisition of a company that installs glass in high-rises. They acquire well. The dividend is safe.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 29, 2020
The businesses under the same umbrella does not have much synergistic benefits. We do not know the real value of the underlying businesses. The true underlying payout ratio must be reviewed. He is unsure if there is sufficient cashflow to maintain these high dividends.
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The businesses under the same umbrella does not have much synergistic benefits. We do not know the real value of the underlying businesses. The true underlying payout ratio must be reviewed. He is unsure if there is sufficient cashflow to maintain these high dividends.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
June 12, 2020
It is 80% aviation and 20% manufacturing. It is small cap and very volatile. You need to see a strong balance sheet -- theirs is 5 times debt-to-EBITDA. If this was a "V" shaped recovery, it would be a fine play. The dividend payout is 122% of cash flow. Don't let this be the core of your portfolio.
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It is 80% aviation and 20% manufacturing. It is small cap and very volatile. You need to see a strong balance sheet -- theirs is 5 times debt-to-EBITDA. If this was a "V" shaped recovery, it would be a fine play. The dividend payout is 122% of cash flow. Don't let this be the core of your portfolio.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 29, 2020
(A Top Pick May 17/19, Down 26%) There are concerns about the airline portion of their business. He no longer owns this as it triggered his stop-loss. The market is concerned about the longevity of their dividend given the yield. Analysts have been cutting the earnings outlook as well. Yield 9%
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(A Top Pick May 17/19, Down 26%) There are concerns about the airline portion of their business. He no longer owns this as it triggered his stop-loss. The market is concerned about the longevity of their dividend given the yield. Analysts have been cutting the earnings outlook as well. Yield 9%
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 21, 2020
(A Top Pick Jun 17/19, Down 33%) They got lumped into the airline business. 75-80% of their business is related to aviation. He thinks it was given a bit of a bad knock. Their dividend is very sustainable. Their flights have to take place, such as cargo into the deep north. He likes management and thinks this business will come back very quickly.
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(A Top Pick Jun 17/19, Down 33%) They got lumped into the airline business. 75-80% of their business is related to aviation. He thinks it was given a bit of a bad knock. Their dividend is very sustainable. Their flights have to take place, such as cargo into the deep north. He likes management and thinks this business will come back very quickly.
HOLD
HOLD
February 20, 2020
Diversified business. Trust structure, so debt is higher than normal. Good at acquiring. Payout ratio is 60-70%. Dividend growth will be more moderate next couple of years. Yield is 5%.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
February 20, 2020
Diversified business. Trust structure, so debt is higher than normal. Good at acquiring. Payout ratio is 60-70%. Dividend growth will be more moderate next couple of years. Yield is 5%.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 3, 2020
Entry point? The long-term uptrend remains intact. Wait to enter at $42; he expects a pullback to come soon given the coronavirus. He likes EIF.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
February 3, 2020
Entry point? The long-term uptrend remains intact. Wait to enter at $42; he expects a pullback to come soon given the coronavirus. He likes EIF.
BUY
BUY
January 27, 2020
Good chart with a breakout around $42 and it's coming back to test that.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
January 27, 2020
Good chart with a breakout around $42 and it's coming back to test that.
BUY
BUY
January 21, 2020
Strong upward chart in 2019 with a clear base around $36 will provide momentum.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
January 21, 2020
Strong upward chart in 2019 with a clear base around $36 will provide momentum.
HOLD
HOLD
January 17, 2020
He holds this for the yield. It has good price momentum and the valuation is still reasonable. Debt is a little strained. The payout ratio is 96%. A hold here. Yield 5.2%
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
January 17, 2020
He holds this for the yield. It has good price momentum and the valuation is still reasonable. Debt is a little strained. The payout ratio is 96%. A hold here. Yield 5.2%
BUY
BUY
January 2, 2020
It did extremely well last year. It was subject to short sellers and negativity at the beginning of the year. They feature airlines that fly into northern communities. He trimmed his position as the stock went up. He is still holding it and the dividend is about 5.5-6%. It should be quite attractive to the average investor.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
January 2, 2020
It did extremely well last year. It was subject to short sellers and negativity at the beginning of the year. They feature airlines that fly into northern communities. He trimmed his position as the stock went up. He is still holding it and the dividend is about 5.5-6%. It should be quite attractive to the average investor.
BUY
BUY
December 9, 2019
It's a cheap stock, have grown EBITDA by 10-15% and pays a 5.5% dividend. A solid stock that executes well and has cash on the balance sheet. He's watching this.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
December 9, 2019
It's a cheap stock, have grown EBITDA by 10-15% and pays a 5.5% dividend. A solid stock that executes well and has cash on the balance sheet. He's watching this.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 18, 2019
Strong uptrend this year. But wait until the correction he expects in the coming weeks before entering. If you hold, you can take a few profits now. Could pullback to around $41-42. even lower; its past two pullbacks were sharp and choppy.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
November 18, 2019
Strong uptrend this year. But wait until the correction he expects in the coming weeks before entering. If you hold, you can take a few profits now. Could pullback to around $41-42. even lower; its past two pullbacks were sharp and choppy.
BUY
BUY
November 8, 2019
A good looking stock that’s breaking out into new territory. They have good volume and they had a big move today. It’s entered a consolidation range and it is looking very positive.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
November 8, 2019
A good looking stock that’s breaking out into new territory. They have good volume and they had a big move today. It’s entered a consolidation range and it is looking very positive.
HOLD
HOLD
November 1, 2019
He owns this. It is good value, has good price momentum and does not have high price volatility. The only knock is that they still have a fair amount of debt. The yield is good, but the payout ratio is close to 100% so there is not a lot of wiggle room. It trades at 16 times earnings. Yield 5.8%
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
November 1, 2019
He owns this. It is good value, has good price momentum and does not have high price volatility. The only knock is that they still have a fair amount of debt. The yield is good, but the payout ratio is close to 100% so there is not a lot of wiggle room. It trades at 16 times earnings. Yield 5.8%
BUY
BUY
October 21, 2019
It is a diversified company that grows through acquisition. The dividend is covered with 29% of cash flow. Earnings should grow 15% this year. He thinks in the coming 3 months the stock price will be driven higher.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
October 21, 2019
It is a diversified company that grows through acquisition. The dividend is covered with 29% of cash flow. Earnings should grow 15% this year. He thinks in the coming 3 months the stock price will be driven higher.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
October 18, 2019
A nice up trend since January 2019 that has hit resistance around $42. Good support at $38 and then $36.50 (200 day moving average). If you own it, hold it. Buying is probably okay here. Yield 6%
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
October 18, 2019
A nice up trend since January 2019 that has hit resistance around $42. Good support at $38 and then $36.50 (200 day moving average). If you own it, hold it. Buying is probably okay here. Yield 6%
BUY
BUY
October 10, 2019
He owns it in an income-seeking fund. Income generator, plus great total return performer. 20% compound annual rate of return since inception. Like a mini-BAM or mini-Onex. Very acquisitive. Good earnings grower and dividend grower. Regional airlines and light manufacturing. Very good management. Yield is 6%.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
October 10, 2019
He owns it in an income-seeking fund. Income generator, plus great total return performer. 20% compound annual rate of return since inception. Like a mini-BAM or mini-Onex. Very acquisitive. Good earnings grower and dividend grower. Regional airlines and light manufacturing. Very good management. Yield is 6%.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 10, 2019

He met the company last year. Similar to DIV-T, comprised of many businesses, and you buy this for the dividend. There are some good businesses here, but valuing those companies can be difficult. Good for dividend investors.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
September 10, 2019

He met the company last year. Similar to DIV-T, comprised of many businesses, and you buy this for the dividend. There are some good businesses here, but valuing those companies can be difficult. Good for dividend investors.

BUY
BUY
August 23, 2019
A regional jet carrier, with different sub-businesses. An income play. They had difficulty covering repair and maintenance cost. Recently moved out of the pattern. Thinks that it can go up to $45. Possible capital appreciation and dividend play for longterm investors.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
August 23, 2019
A regional jet carrier, with different sub-businesses. An income play. They had difficulty covering repair and maintenance cost. Recently moved out of the pattern. Thinks that it can go up to $45. Possible capital appreciation and dividend play for longterm investors.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 14, 2019
They just bumped their dividend by 4%. Has a 54% payout ratio. He models 12% EPS growth. It's cheap at 10.6x. He likes it. However, their balance sheet is 3.4x net debt to EBITDA. And it's a small name so vulnerable to market swings.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
August 14, 2019
They just bumped their dividend by 4%. Has a 54% payout ratio. He models 12% EPS growth. It's cheap at 10.6x. He likes it. However, their balance sheet is 3.4x net debt to EBITDA. And it's a small name so vulnerable to market swings.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
July 30, 2019
He was buying this around $28. They own airlines that fly into the First Nations lands. It is very well run. If it dipped into $35 he would buy more. It has a nice dividend with good growth.
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He was buying this around $28. They own airlines that fly into the First Nations lands. It is very well run. If it dipped into $35 he would buy more. It has a nice dividend with good growth.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 5, 2019
Doesn't know this well. It had a big jump in late-February and has been rising since. This will be insensitive to interest rate moves. It's had a wild wild since 2016. Pays a dividend over 5%, but be careful buying a stock only for a dividend, because the stock price can be volatile.
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Doesn't know this well. It had a big jump in late-February and has been rising since. This will be insensitive to interest rate moves. It's had a wild wild since 2016. Pays a dividend over 5%, but be careful buying a stock only for a dividend, because the stock price can be volatile.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 17, 2019

They're an aggregator with holdings such as aerospace and manufacturing. They've grown their topline over the last 5 years at 30% annually and bottom line 22% annually. He likes the managers. They're set up to make another big acquisition. (Analysts’ price target is $44.09)

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They're an aggregator with holdings such as aerospace and manufacturing. They've grown their topline over the last 5 years at 30% annually and bottom line 22% annually. He likes the managers. They're set up to make another big acquisition. (Analysts’ price target is $44.09)

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 10, 2019
They were once the victim of a short seller report and they came out unharmed. Companies that acquire a lot like they do tend to blow up but they have done smart acquisitions, and maintained and increased their dividend. It would be nice to see more insider buying.
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They were once the victim of a short seller report and they came out unharmed. Companies that acquire a lot like they do tend to blow up but they have done smart acquisitions, and maintained and increased their dividend. It would be nice to see more insider buying.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 17, 2019
They focus on aerospace services. Payout ratio of 30%. ROE 16%. He expects 11% growth in earnings. He sees a 30% upside potential. Yield 6.1% (Analysts’ price target is $44.09)
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They focus on aerospace services. Payout ratio of 30%. ROE 16%. He expects 11% growth in earnings. He sees a 30% upside potential. Yield 6.1% (Analysts’ price target is $44.09)
BUY
BUY
February 21, 2019
He likes this name. They are modeling 20% EPS growth, 10% FCF growth. Pays a nice dividend easy for them to pay. Payout ratio of 60%. The only negative is that their balance sheet is a little too levered. The name doesn't get the respect it deserves. he think it is going higher.
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
February 21, 2019
He likes this name. They are modeling 20% EPS growth, 10% FCF growth. Pays a nice dividend easy for them to pay. Payout ratio of 60%. The only negative is that their balance sheet is a little too levered. The name doesn't get the respect it deserves. he think it is going higher.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 15, 2019
(A Top Pick Mar 21/18, Down 7%) He thinks it will continue to grow through acquisition. It is a potential buy again. The payout ratio is 35%. Yield 7.5%
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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
February 15, 2019
(A Top Pick Mar 21/18, Down 7%) He thinks it will continue to grow through acquisition. It is a potential buy again. The payout ratio is 35%. Yield 7.5%
BUY
BUY
October 26, 2018

Just made a recent acqusition that's doing well. 78% payout ratio. 7% dividend is fine this year. Sees 20% EPS growth. 11x earnings, lower than 14x 4-year average. He likes it. It's held up really well when other industrials are getting killed. The one problem though is their net debt-to-EBITDA which is 3x. This is trending in the right direction.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
October 26, 2018

Just made a recent acqusition that's doing well. 78% payout ratio. 7% dividend is fine this year. Sees 20% EPS growth. 11x earnings, lower than 14x 4-year average. He likes it. It's held up really well when other industrials are getting killed. The one problem though is their net debt-to-EBITDA which is 3x. This is trending in the right direction.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 25, 2018

(A top pick October 25/17, up 2%) The dividend yield is the driver of this name. Seems to have a hard time breaking the $35 resistance level, but if it does break through, he sees it going to $42.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
October 25, 2018

(A top pick October 25/17, up 2%) The dividend yield is the driver of this name. Seems to have a hard time breaking the $35 resistance level, but if it does break through, he sees it going to $42.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
September 28, 2018

Payout ratio is 78%, pretty safe. Modelling 20% EPS growth. Recent acquisition is performing well. Pretty cheap. Have had higher labour costs. Two things to watch: 1) very whippy, as it’s a small cap, 2) balance sheet, if we’re going into a recession. If we don’t have a recession for a while, you can do quite well. (Analysts’ price target is around $34.)

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
September 28, 2018

Payout ratio is 78%, pretty safe. Modelling 20% EPS growth. Recent acquisition is performing well. Pretty cheap. Have had higher labour costs. Two things to watch: 1) very whippy, as it’s a small cap, 2) balance sheet, if we’re going into a recession. If we don’t have a recession for a while, you can do quite well. (Analysts’ price target is around $34.)

HOLD
HOLD
September 20, 2018

It operates in the aerospace and manufacturing segments. It is dominant in rural parts of Canada. They make commercial and industrial tanks and pressure washing system. They were the target of short selling a while ago so the company bought back shares and increased the dividend. They have dealt with the issue quite well. The dividend is still a high payout ratio, however. Hang on to this one.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
September 20, 2018

It operates in the aerospace and manufacturing segments. It is dominant in rural parts of Canada. They make commercial and industrial tanks and pressure washing system. They were the target of short selling a while ago so the company bought back shares and increased the dividend. They have dealt with the issue quite well. The dividend is still a high payout ratio, however. Hang on to this one.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 9, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 25/17, Up 11%) High dividend paying company. An income play. It is osculating between $30-$35.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
August 9, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 25/17, Up 11%) High dividend paying company. An income play. It is osculating between $30-$35.

HOLD
HOLD
August 9, 2018

Collection of companies, aviation and others, where he thinks there’s huge value. In it for the long haul. It’s a hold at this level, but only because they already own a lot.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
August 9, 2018

Collection of companies, aviation and others, where he thinks there’s huge value. In it for the long haul. It’s a hold at this level, but only because they already own a lot.

BUY
BUY
May 18, 2018

It ranks in the top 10% of his dividend model. It had an earnings surprise earlier this month, and is expected to grow 15% this year with a 13 P/E. He likes it. ROE is 15%.

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It ranks in the top 10% of his dividend model. It had an earnings surprise earlier this month, and is expected to grow 15% this year with a 13 P/E. He likes it. ROE is 15%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 8, 2018

This company has had a hard time with aggressive short sellers. They have responded with insider buying and by raising the dividend. This is a conglomerate. They have some good businesses, but he always gets nervous with companies that acquire other businesses. He’s not nervous about the short sellers, thinks they’ve been proven wrong. The yield is quite generous, over 7%, but this is a hard company to analyze because it has so many moving parts.

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This company has had a hard time with aggressive short sellers. They have responded with insider buying and by raising the dividend. This is a conglomerate. They have some good businesses, but he always gets nervous with companies that acquire other businesses. He’s not nervous about the short sellers, thinks they’ve been proven wrong. The yield is quite generous, over 7%, but this is a hard company to analyze because it has so many moving parts.

BUY
BUY
May 3, 2018

This name really moves around. This company has some issues with respects as to what is classified as maintenance and capex. Some short sellers have drawn attention to that. It is a small cap. The balance sheet is not perfect. But it has a P/E of 10. 57% payout ratio and a nice dividend yield. You can have this name for a taxable account.

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This name really moves around. This company has some issues with respects as to what is classified as maintenance and capex. Some short sellers have drawn attention to that. It is a small cap. The balance sheet is not perfect. But it has a P/E of 10. 57% payout ratio and a nice dividend yield. You can have this name for a taxable account.

BUY
BUY
March 29, 2018

It is a small cap. The balance sheet is not bad. There are a lot of dividends in Canada that are a lot higher than they should be (5-7%) but he feels we have an all clear on this one. He models 17% earnings growth. Last quarter they beat estimates by 10% and boosted the divided. It is a good buy here.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
March 29, 2018

It is a small cap. The balance sheet is not bad. There are a lot of dividends in Canada that are a lot higher than they should be (5-7%) but he feels we have an all clear on this one. He models 17% earnings growth. Last quarter they beat estimates by 10% and boosted the divided. It is a good buy here.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 28, 2018

There is an aviation and manufacturing division within this company. As a conglomerate it usually trades at a discount. There was a short selling investor who had issues with some of their acquisitions in the past. Some lower margin leasing activity in the aviation division may also be creating some uncertainty with investors.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
March 28, 2018

There is an aviation and manufacturing division within this company. As a conglomerate it usually trades at a discount. There was a short selling investor who had issues with some of their acquisitions in the past. Some lower margin leasing activity in the aviation division may also be creating some uncertainty with investors.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 21, 2018

This company grows by acquisition with an aviation business in Northern Canada and in the manufacturing sector. A high yield with only a 34% payout ratio and an ROE of 14.9%. Yield 6.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $45.20 )

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
March 21, 2018

This company grows by acquisition with an aviation business in Northern Canada and in the manufacturing sector. A high yield with only a 34% payout ratio and an ROE of 14.9%. Yield 6.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $45.20 )

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
March 9, 2018

As a proud Manitoban, he likes this company. It has mostly government contracted aviation deals. It is trading at a discount to its historical multiple, but the problem is they keep spending their money. They need a couple years to consolidate capital. They could face future competition in their Northern Canadian market space. The yield is about 6%. It is not a bad buy here at the current price weakness.

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As a proud Manitoban, he likes this company. It has mostly government contracted aviation deals. It is trading at a discount to its historical multiple, but the problem is they keep spending their money. They need a couple years to consolidate capital. They could face future competition in their Northern Canadian market space. The yield is about 6%. It is not a bad buy here at the current price weakness.

BUY
BUY
December 6, 2017

Regional planes and aftermarket parts distribution. He likes the business. It’s been under pressure from a Short seller making comments about using debt to pay the dividend. He is not convinced. They’ve been fairly active doing acquisitions, and he looks at the debt as being for acquisitions. Trading at a reasonable valuation at about 16X, and pays a great dividend of almost 6%. He is buying for new clients.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
December 6, 2017

Regional planes and aftermarket parts distribution. He likes the business. It’s been under pressure from a Short seller making comments about using debt to pay the dividend. He is not convinced. They’ve been fairly active doing acquisitions, and he looks at the debt as being for acquisitions. Trading at a reasonable valuation at about 16X, and pays a great dividend of almost 6%. He is buying for new clients.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 16, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) There are Short reports out there, and he is trying to get his head around as to whether the Shorts have nailed this or not. There are some concerning signals. He would hold off on this.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
November 16, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) There are Short reports out there, and he is trying to get his head around as to whether the Shorts have nailed this or not. There are some concerning signals. He would hold off on this.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 25, 2017

This has gotten beaten up over the last 6-12 months. A short seller report came out questioning what they need to spend on some of the CapX on their airlines, as well as if dividends are sustainable. The company came out with good earnings which solidified their dividends. The stock rebounded up to around $34-$35, but has now come back down to around the $30 mark for no rhyme or reason. (Analysts’ price target is $42.)

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
October 25, 2017

This has gotten beaten up over the last 6-12 months. A short seller report came out questioning what they need to spend on some of the CapX on their airlines, as well as if dividends are sustainable. The company came out with good earnings which solidified their dividends. The stock rebounded up to around $34-$35, but has now come back down to around the $30 mark for no rhyme or reason. (Analysts’ price target is $42.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 28, 2017

A kind of illiquid stock that moves around a lot. There is a Short Seller piece out there that says they are not going to have enough free cash to meet their dividend. CapX has been elevated. Thinks the Short Sellers are wrong and that they are going to grow their earnings by 12% over the next couple of years compounded annually. He models a payout ratio of 96% for 2017 next year. Thinks you will get a good combination of dividend and upside from here. Dividend yield of 6%+.

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Exchange Income (EIF-T)
September 28, 2017

A kind of illiquid stock that moves around a lot. There is a Short Seller piece out there that says they are not going to have enough free cash to meet their dividend. CapX has been elevated. Thinks the Short Sellers are wrong and that they are going to grow their earnings by 12% over the next couple of years compounded annually. He models a payout ratio of 96% for 2017 next year. Thinks you will get a good combination of dividend and upside from here. Dividend yield of 6%+.

BUY
BUY
July 24, 2017

It is still a buy. It is a really good company back to 2005. They have almost always had 10% or more return on capital.

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It is still a buy. It is a really good company back to 2005. They have almost always had 10% or more return on capital.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 6, 2017

This had a Short report issued on it. The Short thesis is not new at all, as it has been on and off for the last few years. Primarily it has to do with the sustainability of dividends. Doesn’t think the Short thesis is solid. The company’s argument that a lot of capital expenditure has been for growth, rather than maintaining its operations, makes a lot of sense. The real question is, are you comfortable with the underlying business mix being essentially a specialty regional airline with some older planes, but make them last by completely overhauling them. There is also the acquisition of Region 1 taking older airplanes and selling them for parts. You have to be comfortable with the cyclicality and how well they manage it. If you are, this is a bargain.

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This had a Short report issued on it. The Short thesis is not new at all, as it has been on and off for the last few years. Primarily it has to do with the sustainability of dividends. Doesn’t think the Short thesis is solid. The company’s argument that a lot of capital expenditure has been for growth, rather than maintaining its operations, makes a lot of sense. The real question is, are you comfortable with the underlying business mix being essentially a specialty regional airline with some older planes, but make them last by completely overhauling them. There is also the acquisition of Region 1 taking older airplanes and selling them for parts. You have to be comfortable with the cyclicality and how well they manage it. If you are, this is a bargain.

HOLD
HOLD
June 16, 2017

Missed on Q1 operational challenges in aerospace. They increased costs on a fleet overhaul, as well as having some bad weather. Even without some of these challenges, they would have missed by 5%. Management is still modelling 12% EPS. The stock is pretty illiquid. Trading below its five-year average.

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