Sienna Senior Living Inc

SIA-T

Analysis and Opinions about SIA-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
December 17, 2013

Government sponsored long term care. Will continue to look after our aging. Expanding business into retirement homes and other ways of caring for our older demographic. Selling at $11.50 and buying at $11.

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Government sponsored long term care. Will continue to look after our aging. Expanding business into retirement homes and other ways of caring for our older demographic. Selling at $11.50 and buying at $11.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 15, 2013

Their numbers just came out and their compound annual growth rate for the next 2 years would be about 15% each year. There is probably more upside from these levels. Buy on a little bit of a pull back.

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Their numbers just came out and their compound annual growth rate for the next 2 years would be about 15% each year. There is probably more upside from these levels. Buy on a little bit of a pull back.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 13, 2013

Has always been a fan of this one. With the 2nd quarter results, he did reduce from overweight. Has a great yield from an income that is basically supported by the provincial government. They do have issues that they are working through and there will be more noise on the stock, which will create volatility. They have to refinance a very large bond that is coming due in 2015. If you have too much, you could trim on strength. Dividend is very safe.

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Has always been a fan of this one. With the 2nd quarter results, he did reduce from overweight. Has a great yield from an income that is basically supported by the provincial government. They do have issues that they are working through and there will be more noise on the stock, which will create volatility. They have to refinance a very large bond that is coming due in 2015. If you have too much, you could trim on strength. Dividend is very safe.

BUY
BUY
September 24, 2013

Dropped 20% in mid-August. The stock actually held in while the rest of the market was collapsing, which gave it tremendous outperformance. However, earnings have surprised to the negative. Have 6 retirement homes and the rest are long-term care, government contract. At this level, it offers a very attractive yield. 8.7% yield.

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Dropped 20% in mid-August. The stock actually held in while the rest of the market was collapsing, which gave it tremendous outperformance. However, earnings have surprised to the negative. Have 6 retirement homes and the rest are long-term care, government contract. At this level, it offers a very attractive yield. 8.7% yield.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 7, 2013

This company is going to have to spend a lot of CapX for upgrading existing properties. Also, they are going into the retirement home business, which is a lot more competitive. There are better choices out there.

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This company is going to have to spend a lot of CapX for upgrading existing properties. Also, they are going into the retirement home business, which is a lot more competitive. There are better choices out there.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 2, 2013

Leisure World (LW-T) or Chartwell (CSH.UN-T)? Doesn’t own because it is long-term care and long-term care has next to no growth in the cash flow stream. Assets are in Ontario and BC. Have to do a significant amount of redevelopment in roughly half their portfolio in the next few years, which is all CapX with no general upside. Have to redevelop these assets to an A or B quality standard.

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Leisure World (LW-T) or Chartwell (CSH.UN-T)? Doesn’t own because it is long-term care and long-term care has next to no growth in the cash flow stream. Assets are in Ontario and BC. Have to do a significant amount of redevelopment in roughly half their portfolio in the next few years, which is all CapX with no general upside. Have to redevelop these assets to an A or B quality standard.

HOLD
HOLD
July 31, 2013

Trading Leisureworld (LW-T) for RioCan (REI.UN-T)? An interesting trade as you are looking at 2 very different sectors. Riocan will give you a little bit more volatility. He really likes Leisureworld, one of his favourites. Long-term care for seniors. You have a backstop for leases as the government is paying for those homes. You have opportunity to grow cash flow on the other side of the business. Very high yield with a low payout. 7.5% yield.

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Trading Leisureworld (LW-T) for RioCan (REI.UN-T)? An interesting trade as you are looking at 2 very different sectors. Riocan will give you a little bit more volatility. He really likes Leisureworld, one of his favourites. Long-term care for seniors. You have a backstop for leases as the government is paying for those homes. You have opportunity to grow cash flow on the other side of the business. Very high yield with a low payout. 7.5% yield.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 29, 2013

Their specialty care acquisition that they just did looks accretive. 7% dividend yield looks safe. Payout ratio of about 86%. A compelling valuation. Trades at about 10X. The one fly in the ointment is that it has very sluggish growth of only about 2% in the next couple of years. He would put money into Chartwell (CSH.UN –T) over this one.

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Their specialty care acquisition that they just did looks accretive. 7% dividend yield looks safe. Payout ratio of about 86%. A compelling valuation. Trades at about 10X. The one fly in the ointment is that it has very sluggish growth of only about 2% in the next couple of years. He would put money into Chartwell (CSH.UN –T) over this one.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 2, 2013

Likes that 90% of assets are nursing homes in Ontario. Demographic play. Better funding after the last formulary adjustment. Numbers are good, nice chart and it is a defensive asset. Traded out because it was at an expensive price point.

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Likes that 90% of assets are nursing homes in Ontario. Demographic play. Better funding after the last formulary adjustment. Numbers are good, nice chart and it is a defensive asset. Traded out because it was at an expensive price point.

SELL
SELL
June 14, 2013

(Market Call Minute) Is cutting back but relatively high payout ratio and limited room for capital appreciation.

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(Market Call Minute) Is cutting back but relatively high payout ratio and limited room for capital appreciation.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 4, 2013

Right now the market is starved for yield and supporting almost any acquisition that REITs are doing. Occupancy rates are great, cap rates are low and interest rates are low. Business is good. Until you get an uptick in interest rates, the company should be okay.

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Right now the market is starved for yield and supporting almost any acquisition that REITs are doing. Occupancy rates are great, cap rates are low and interest rates are low. Business is good. Until you get an uptick in interest rates, the company should be okay.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
April 1, 2013

7% yield. He sold about 6 months ago. Great managers. You don’t have to deal with the US assets. It is all Ontario based nursing and retirement homes. Dividend is safe and conservative. He got out because of valuation. There is nothing wrong with it. There will be a significant amount of CAP-X to keep it up to date. They rely on provincial support.

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7% yield. He sold about 6 months ago. Great managers. You don’t have to deal with the US assets. It is all Ontario based nursing and retirement homes. Dividend is safe and conservative. He got out because of valuation. There is nothing wrong with it. There will be a significant amount of CAP-X to keep it up to date. They rely on provincial support.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 28, 2013

(A Top Pick March 21/12. Up 15.38%.) When it hit his target, he sold his holdings. Good company. Feels the upside is much more limited on real estate at this time.

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(A Top Pick March 21/12. Up 15.38%.) When it hit his target, he sold his holdings. Good company. Feels the upside is much more limited on real estate at this time.

BUY
BUY
January 30, 2013

Seniors long term care facilities. Has done a very good job of managing, in what can be a difficult business because, surprisingly, there has been increased capacity. Feels 7% yield is safe. Expects management will be able to pull a little bit more yield out of the business and increase the dividend marginally over the next couple of years.

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Seniors long term care facilities. Has done a very good job of managing, in what can be a difficult business because, surprisingly, there has been increased capacity. Feels 7% yield is safe. Expects management will be able to pull a little bit more yield out of the business and increase the dividend marginally over the next couple of years.

BUY
BUY
November 6, 2012

Have very strong earnings momentum. Earnings were up 24% in Q2 year-over-year. Have good growth drivers in acquisitions. Higher government funding. Have strength in long-term care. Trades at a discount to Chartwell (CSH.UN-T) but has a narrow concentration in Ontario so it should be there. (At a discount?) About 98% occupancy last quarter. Balance sheet looks okay and the payout ratio is fine at about 69%. Try to buy at a little bit under $12.

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Have very strong earnings momentum. Earnings were up 24% in Q2 year-over-year. Have good growth drivers in acquisitions. Higher government funding. Have strength in long-term care. Trades at a discount to Chartwell (CSH.UN-T) but has a narrow concentration in Ontario so it should be there. (At a discount?) About 98% occupancy last quarter. Balance sheet looks okay and the payout ratio is fine at about 69%. Try to buy at a little bit under $12.

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