Long Run Exploration

LRE-T

0.00
0.00 (0.00%)
This company is not ACTIVE.

Analysis and Opinions about LRE-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 31, 2016

Any danger of the Chinese deal not going through? There is always some risk when talking about foreign buyers. He doesn’t like facing this kind of a deal risk. There are plenty of opportunities without trying to play the arbitrage, etc.

Any danger of the Chinese deal not going through? There is always some risk when talking about foreign buyers. He doesn’t like facing this kind of a deal risk. There are plenty of opportunities without trying to play the arbitrage, etc.

Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$0.460
Owned
No
WAIT
WAIT
May 27, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Being taken over at not much higher than the current share price. Feels the deal risk is very low and would wait for the deal to finish.

(Market Call Minute.) Being taken over at not much higher than the current share price. Feels the deal risk is very low and would wait for the deal to finish.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.460
Owned
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 22, 2016

(A Top Pick April 6/15. Down 34.46%.) This is subject to a takeover bid from a Chinese operation.

(A Top Pick April 6/15. Down 34.46%.) This is subject to a takeover bid from a Chinese operation.

Josef Schachter
President, Schachter Asset Management
Price
$0.480
Owned
No
SELL
SELL
February 23, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Have a bid from some Chinese investors. The company was going bankrupt were it not for this bid. He would do a happy dance and tender his Stock.

(Market Call Minute.) Have a bid from some Chinese investors. The company was going bankrupt were it not for this bid. He would do a happy dance and tender his Stock.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.390
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 2, 2015

Is one of the most troubled companies in the business right now. It makes sense to upgrade the company right now. The company had an takeover rumour, which doesn't make sense because the stock is going lower. This indicates that the public doesn't believe in the rumour. Doesn't recommend buying based on the rumour.

Is one of the most troubled companies in the business right now. It makes sense to upgrade the company right now. The company had an takeover rumour, which doesn't make sense because the stock is going lower. This indicates that the public doesn't believe in the rumour. Doesn't recommend buying based on the rumour.

Swanzy Quarshie
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$0.410
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 25, 2015

Debt to cash flow is around 6X, which is high. Cut the dividend to zero, which led to a freefall in the stock. If you were an uber bull on oil, this is the type of name that could go up several fold. Personally it is not his strategy because he thinks he can make 50% or more buying more established names. Higher risk than what he would be comfortable with. In his estimation, they are unable to grow oil at anything remotely close to today’s oil prices. High debt, declining production, declining product pricing which is a tricky situation to be in.

Debt to cash flow is around 6X, which is high. Cut the dividend to zero, which led to a freefall in the stock. If you were an uber bull on oil, this is the type of name that could go up several fold. Personally it is not his strategy because he thinks he can make 50% or more buying more established names. Higher risk than what he would be comfortable with. In his estimation, they are unable to grow oil at anything remotely close to today’s oil prices. High debt, declining production, declining product pricing which is a tricky situation to be in.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.345
Owned
Unknown
SELL
SELL
June 12, 2015

She would call this a Sell right now. This is not the right environment now for a company like this. Unfortunately they implemented a dividend when they had too much debt and when commodity prices were in a correction. Dividend was unsustainable so they had to get rid of it.

She would call this a Sell right now. This is not the right environment now for a company like this. Unfortunately they implemented a dividend when they had too much debt and when commodity prices were in a correction. Dividend was unsustainable so they had to get rid of it.

Swanzy Quarshie
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$0.850
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 9, 2015

Doesn’t like this. It is one of those companies that was acquisitive and used a lot of debt. It hasn’t played out well. There are not a lot of buyers out there and they have the ability to be very picky. This one is probably being run by its bankers at this stage.

Doesn’t like this. It is one of those companies that was acquisitive and used a lot of debt. It hasn’t played out well. There are not a lot of buyers out there and they have the ability to be very picky. This one is probably being run by its bankers at this stage.

John O'Connell, CFA
Chairman and CEO, Davis Rea
Price
$0.750
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 8, 2015

Got themselves into a pickle in terms of debt heading into a collapse of crude price. Debt to cash flow is 4.6 times so they are getting up there. Has not owned it in 2 years. If you believe in $70 oil this name could double, but at $65, no. They could potentially sell some assets.

Got themselves into a pickle in terms of debt heading into a collapse of crude price. Debt to cash flow is 4.6 times so they are getting up there. Has not owned it in 2 years. If you believe in $70 oil this name could double, but at $65, no. They could potentially sell some assets.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.720
Owned
No
HOLD
HOLD
May 8, 2015

At these energy prices and the earnings this company is making, it is very difficult to forecast successfully that it will survive. If he owned it, he would continue to sit on it and cross his fingers.

At these energy prices and the earnings this company is making, it is very difficult to forecast successfully that it will survive. If he owned it, he would continue to sit on it and cross his fingers.

Ross Healy
Chairman, Strategic Analysis Corp
Price
$0.820
Owned
Yes
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 6, 2015

They were caught offside with debt levels at 5 times debt to cash flow. The dividend is cut to zero. Debt and production growth are still concerns. They are challenged, as are most companies. Oil needs to get to $70 (local price) in order for them to growth production and resume the dividend. He believes they will sell assets to reduce debt. It’s not a terminal situation, but he does not buy companies with stressed balance sheets.

They were caught offside with debt levels at 5 times debt to cash flow. The dividend is cut to zero. Debt and production growth are still concerns. They are challenged, as are most companies. Oil needs to get to $70 (local price) in order for them to growth production and resume the dividend. He believes they will sell assets to reduce debt. It’s not a terminal situation, but he does not buy companies with stressed balance sheets.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.740
Owned
Unknown
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 6, 2015

(A Top Pick April 14/14. Down 85.15%.) A lot of dividend type stocks got beat up pretty badly because of debt loads. This company has $600 million of debt. Have done well with hedging and production. Probably doing 32,000 BOE’s a day this year. Believes they can handle their debt. Great cash flow and should do $.80-$1 this year in cash flow. Will generate about $200 million in cash flow, and are only going to spend $100 million, use $100 million to pay down debt and they have asset sales to pay down debt. Stock could go to $3.50 if they resolve the balance sheet issue. Wait for 3 months before buying.

(A Top Pick April 14/14. Down 85.15%.) A lot of dividend type stocks got beat up pretty badly because of debt loads. This company has $600 million of debt. Have done well with hedging and production. Probably doing 32,000 BOE’s a day this year. Believes they can handle their debt. Great cash flow and should do $.80-$1 this year in cash flow. Will generate about $200 million in cash flow, and are only going to spend $100 million, use $100 million to pay down debt and they have asset sales to pay down debt. Stock could go to $3.50 if they resolve the balance sheet issue. Wait for 3 months before buying.

Josef Schachter
President, Schachter Asset Management
Price
$0.740
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 18, 2015

He would be inclined to stay clear of this. It has dropped quite dramatically because of the amount of leverage on its balance sheet.

He would be inclined to stay clear of this. It has dropped quite dramatically because of the amount of leverage on its balance sheet.

Mohsin Bashir
VP Investments, Stone Asset Management
Price
$0.710
Owned
No
HOLD
HOLD
March 17, 2015

From a price to book point of view it is at 20 percent of its book value. This stock is really cheap. The balance sheet is strong. Next year they are looking at a loss of 27 cents. He does not have a comfortable feeling on where the price of oil is going.

From a price to book point of view it is at 20 percent of its book value. This stock is really cheap. The balance sheet is strong. Next year they are looking at a loss of 27 cents. He does not have a comfortable feeling on where the price of oil is going.

Ross Healy
Chairman, Strategic Analysis Corp
Price
$0.690
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 3, 2015

Cut their dividends to zero and trading at a deep discount. Highly leveraged. They were in the process of trying to improve their efficiencies, but unfortunately got caught up in the oil correction. Not a preferred name for him. He would focus on companies with good balance sheets, who cannot only focus on their existing asset base, but take advantage of possible asset acquisitions.

Cut their dividends to zero and trading at a deep discount. Highly leveraged. They were in the process of trying to improve their efficiencies, but unfortunately got caught up in the oil correction. Not a preferred name for him. He would focus on companies with good balance sheets, who cannot only focus on their existing asset base, but take advantage of possible asset acquisitions.

Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$1.050
Owned
No
SELL
SELL
February 12, 2015

Doesn’t think we have seen the end of the downside in commodities yet. Because of this, there is potential downside in the stock. They stopped paying a dividend. They are now left in a situation where they are going to be forced to sell assets to make sure the balance sheet doesn’t get too out of control. Doesn’t think this is the right company to be in, in this environment.

Doesn’t think we have seen the end of the downside in commodities yet. Because of this, there is potential downside in the stock. They stopped paying a dividend. They are now left in a situation where they are going to be forced to sell assets to make sure the balance sheet doesn’t get too out of control. Doesn’t think this is the right company to be in, in this environment.

Swanzy Quarshie
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$1.150
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 20, 2015

This is 55% gas. Roughly 20% hedged at $93 this year. Dividend is not safe.

This is 55% gas. Roughly 20% hedged at $93 this year. Dividend is not safe.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.250
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 5, 2015

Trading at a massive discount to book value. BV is at about $5.25. FMV has come down a lot, but he still calculates the FMV at about $4. If there was any kind of a rebound in the price of oil, which he expects will be in 2015, it could be quite astounding.

Trading at a massive discount to book value. BV is at about $5.25. FMV has come down a lot, but he still calculates the FMV at about $4. If there was any kind of a rebound in the price of oil, which he expects will be in 2015, it could be quite astounding.

Ross Healy
Chairman, Strategic Analysis Corp
Price
$1.460
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 11, 2014

Not one he is watching because it has too much debt. It is on red flag zone. Focus on companies with a strong balance sheet.

Not one he is watching because it has too much debt. It is on red flag zone. Focus on companies with a strong balance sheet.

Teal Linde
Portfolio Manager & Publisher, Linde Equity Report, Linde Equity Report
Price
$1.270
Owned
Unknown
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
December 1, 2014

A parent company of the guest is a very large shareholder. People are concerned since it is trading at a 19% yield. They may have to realign their divined and cap X programs. Prefers others that can profit at $70 oil. If you think we get a rally in 2015 they may do well from here.

A parent company of the guest is a very large shareholder. People are concerned since it is trading at a 19% yield. They may have to realign their divined and cap X programs. Prefers others that can profit at $70 oil. If you think we get a rally in 2015 they may do well from here.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.790
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 19, 2014

Extremely high dividend yield of 14%-15%. The company has to do something if the model is not sustainable at these prices. Balance sheets get destroyed and may be having to sell things to pay down debt. If they stopped paying the dividend, he would probably look at this company. They are trapped in this game of having a free lunch in the energy business. His guess is that they are going to sell assets to try to stay sustainable.

Extremely high dividend yield of 14%-15%. The company has to do something if the model is not sustainable at these prices. Balance sheets get destroyed and may be having to sell things to pay down debt. If they stopped paying the dividend, he would probably look at this company. They are trapped in this game of having a free lunch in the energy business. His guess is that they are going to sell assets to try to stay sustainable.

John O'Connell, CFA
Chairman and CEO, Davis Rea
Price
$2.730
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 12, 2014

Took a position about 6 months ago. Showed up really strong on his models as having a good valuation and momentum. Energy stocks in Canada are under pressure and have no momentum to them. Doesn't expect there will be a quick change to this. There is a possibility this could have difficulty in sustaining its dividend, especially if energy prices continued to be under pressure.

Took a position about 6 months ago. Showed up really strong on his models as having a good valuation and momentum. Energy stocks in Canada are under pressure and have no momentum to them. Doesn't expect there will be a quick change to this. There is a possibility this could have difficulty in sustaining its dividend, especially if energy prices continued to be under pressure.

Brendan Caldwell
President, Caldwell Securities
Price
$2.980
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 6, 2014

Although he doesn't own this, his company has contemplated making flow-through investments in it in the last year. A relatively simple story to understand. They’re Peace River, Arch, Montney, Redwater and Viking. They pay a dividend. The yield on the company is fairly high, which is probably reflective of some scepticism that they can maintain a dividend. All the body language he has seen from the company is that they would rather throttle back on CapX then do anything to their dividend. He thinks the dividend is relatively safe, although he can think of safer yielding plays.

Although he doesn't own this, his company has contemplated making flow-through investments in it in the last year. A relatively simple story to understand. They’re Peace River, Arch, Montney, Redwater and Viking. They pay a dividend. The yield on the company is fairly high, which is probably reflective of some scepticism that they can maintain a dividend. All the body language he has seen from the company is that they would rather throttle back on CapX then do anything to their dividend. He thinks the dividend is relatively safe, although he can think of safer yielding plays.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$2.860
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 5, 2014

Owns a small amount in some of his portfolios. A balance between oil and gas. High dividend, north of 15%, and he doesn't think it is sustainable. Stock is down significantly. Lower growth rates in some of the other dividend payers.

Owns a small amount in some of his portfolios. A balance between oil and gas. High dividend, north of 15%, and he doesn't think it is sustainable. Stock is down significantly. Lower growth rates in some of the other dividend payers.

Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$2.950
Owned
Yes
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
October 23, 2014

Had previously recommended this, but was basing it on $96 oil with a very reasonable debt (?) to cash flow at 1.5, and this was a very cheap stock. Now with present oil prices, you're going to have a payout ratio of about 143%, which is average, but still higher. Debt to cash flow isn't too bad of about 2.4 versus 3 for the group. For somebody who doesn't mind taking on a little bit of risk, it is probably fine here.

Had previously recommended this, but was basing it on $96 oil with a very reasonable debt (?) to cash flow at 1.5, and this was a very cheap stock. Now with present oil prices, you're going to have a payout ratio of about 143%, which is average, but still higher. Debt to cash flow isn't too bad of about 2.4 versus 3 for the group. For somebody who doesn't mind taking on a little bit of risk, it is probably fine here.

Greg Newman
Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Management
Price
$3.600
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 17, 2014

120% payout ratio. They could dial back Cap-X spending. The price of oil would have to stay back for a couple of years in order to cause a dividend cut.

120% payout ratio. They could dial back Cap-X spending. The price of oil would have to stay back for a couple of years in order to cause a dividend cut.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$3.570
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 15, 2014

People have to understand that a 12% yield on an oil/gas stock is not necessarily a big fat yield. If it were a much more stable company, that would be a no-brainer. In oil/gas, you should never go above 8% on the smaller companies. A slight change in their commodity can really make a big difference in the cash flow, and therefore their dividend. Watch the payout ratio and watch the debt. If you are comfortable with those 2 things and oil prices, then you are probably okay.

People have to understand that a 12% yield on an oil/gas stock is not necessarily a big fat yield. If it were a much more stable company, that would be a no-brainer. In oil/gas, you should never go above 8% on the smaller companies. A slight change in their commodity can really make a big difference in the cash flow, and therefore their dividend. Watch the payout ratio and watch the debt. If you are comfortable with those 2 things and oil prices, then you are probably okay.

Fabrice Taylor
Publisher, The President's Club Newsletter
Price
$3.350
Owned
Unknown
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
September 26, 2014

He used to be bullish on Nat Gas, but not crude. He now thinks Nat Gas has run its course. It has gone nowhere since 2010. It is a trader. You accumulate at support and sell at the top of the range. It is not a long term investment. You might accumulate it here.

Long Run Exploration (LRE-T)
September 26, 2014

He used to be bullish on Nat Gas, but not crude. He now thinks Nat Gas has run its course. It has gone nowhere since 2010. It is a trader. You accumulate at support and sell at the top of the range. It is not a long term investment. You might accumulate it here.

Bill Carrigan
Technical Analyst, Getting Technical Info Service
Price
$4.520
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 19, 2014

Thinks the dividend is safe. Total payout ratio that comes in for 2014 is under 100%. Sees them growing their cash flow at about 15% in the next couple of years. Debt to cash flow isn’t bad for a small company. This is levered to falling oil prices, but it is pretty liquid. Would Buy if you are a risk tolerant investor.

Long Run Exploration (LRE-T)
September 19, 2014

Thinks the dividend is safe. Total payout ratio that comes in for 2014 is under 100%. Sees them growing their cash flow at about 15% in the next couple of years. Debt to cash flow isn’t bad for a small company. This is levered to falling oil prices, but it is pretty liquid. Would Buy if you are a risk tolerant investor.

Greg Newman
Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Management
Price
$4.600
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 29, 2014

Doesn’t follow this one intimately, but it ranks 199, top one third of his database. Recent earnings were down 70% year-over-year. The coming quarter is supposed to snap back 36%. Looks like a reasonable opportunity with a two-year timeframe.

Doesn’t follow this one intimately, but it ranks 199, top one third of his database. Recent earnings were down 70% year-over-year. The coming quarter is supposed to snap back 36%. Looks like a reasonable opportunity with a two-year timeframe.

Robert McWhirter
President, Selective Asset Management
Price
$5.270
Owned
Unknown
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