Athabasca Oil Sands Corp

ATH-T

TSE:ATH

0.45
0.00 (0.00%)
Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets.
More at Wikipedia

Analysis and Opinions about ATH-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 10, 2015

The issue is the oil sands projects where they struck a deal with the Chinese. This is an area of sensitivity with the NDP government. Executives think the #1 target will be the oil sands because of its long life and the revenue they could generate. The other area of concern is their other major play, the Duvernay lands. Although it is highly prospective, it requires a lot more work and is very expensive. In this pricing environment they don’t have the cash flow to finance it effectively.

The issue is the oil sands projects where they struck a deal with the Chinese. This is an area of sensitivity with the NDP government. Executives think the #1 target will be the oil sands because of its long life and the revenue they could generate. The other area of concern is their other major play, the Duvernay lands. Although it is highly prospective, it requires a lot more work and is very expensive. In this pricing environment they don’t have the cash flow to finance it effectively.

Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$2.110
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 1, 2015

They have a good asset and have monetized part of it. With the capital spending you need in the sector there is no need to just buy it and wait for something to happen.

They have a good asset and have monetized part of it. With the capital spending you need in the sector there is no need to just buy it and wait for something to happen.

Peter Hodson
CEO & Head of Research, 5i Research Inc.
Price
$2.180
Owned
Unknown
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
May 27, 2015

The deal they did with the Chinese group has now been concluded and the cash is in the bank. They have access to $1 billion of funding. The question now is what do they do next. Thinks it is a pretty good speculative buy currently.

The deal they did with the Chinese group has now been concluded and the cash is in the bank. They have access to $1 billion of funding. The question now is what do they do next. Thinks it is a pretty good speculative buy currently.

Bill Bonner
President & Portfolio Manager, Brickburn Asset Management Inc
Price
$2.150
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 22, 2015

Oil sands are the most at risk on future pricing. He has never been a fan of this. You have to be careful getting into a long-term project that takes a long time to bring to market, and if the pricing of the product, at some point, may come under pressure. We are in that spot right now

Oil sands are the most at risk on future pricing. He has never been a fan of this. You have to be careful getting into a long-term project that takes a long time to bring to market, and if the pricing of the product, at some point, may come under pressure. We are in that spot right now

David Cockfield
Managing Director, Northland Wealth Management
Price
$2.160
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 15, 2015

This is quite interesting. It has been decimated in the decline of oil. It went public at $18. This has a solid asset for a longer-term investor. If you like oil sands, you could buy this. Don’t trade it; just own it for the next cycle.

This is quite interesting. It has been decimated in the decline of oil. It went public at $18. This has a solid asset for a longer-term investor. If you like oil sands, you could buy this. Don’t trade it; just own it for the next cycle.

Peter Hodson
CEO & Head of Research, 5i Research Inc.
Price
$2.450
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 8, 2015

This is a bull market stock in the sense that they have 2 major projects. One is Hangingstone, an oil sands project, and the other is Duvernay acreage. Both are higher cost projects. He thinks you need $80-$90 oil for the Duvernay to be feasible, and at $65-$70 you could probably look at Hangingstone, so there is no need to own it currently.

This is a bull market stock in the sense that they have 2 major projects. One is Hangingstone, an oil sands project, and the other is Duvernay acreage. Both are higher cost projects. He thinks you need $80-$90 oil for the Duvernay to be feasible, and at $65-$70 you could probably look at Hangingstone, so there is no need to own it currently.

Robert Lauzon
Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital Corporation
Price
$2.120
Owned
No
WATCH
WATCH
April 2, 2015

This has become a bit of a show me story. They need to deliver some operational consistency. Have brought in new management and are trying to get the story going again. Producing about 6000 barrels a day of light oil. Have finally gotten most of the proceeds of their Put option from the Chinese. Feels the model is self financing until at least 2016.

This has become a bit of a show me story. They need to deliver some operational consistency. Have brought in new management and are trying to get the story going again. Producing about 6000 barrels a day of light oil. Have finally gotten most of the proceeds of their Put option from the Chinese. Feels the model is self financing until at least 2016.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$2.150
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 25, 2015

Has been a tragic story even before the oil price went down. They have relatively high cost plays. It looks like a stranded asset. He would prefer a producing asset that could pay you a dividend.

Has been a tragic story even before the oil price went down. They have relatively high cost plays. It looks like a stranded asset. He would prefer a producing asset that could pay you a dividend.

John Wilson
CEO; Co-CIO & Sr Portfolio Manager, Sprott Asset Management
Price
$2.120
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 3, 2015

This is one of those companies that really got squeezed by the commodity fall. Unfortunately gas prices have worked against them in the Duvernay, where they are still in the process of improving cost efficiencies to make it truly economic and generate rates of returns that should be north of 25%-30%. Their other major asset, which is just steaming up and wrapping up, is their Hangingstone heavy oil project. The 2 things that you probably don’t want to own in a $50 oil and $2.50 gas environment, is an early stage, capital intensive gas project and a heavy oil project.

This is one of those companies that really got squeezed by the commodity fall. Unfortunately gas prices have worked against them in the Duvernay, where they are still in the process of improving cost efficiencies to make it truly economic and generate rates of returns that should be north of 25%-30%. Their other major asset, which is just steaming up and wrapping up, is their Hangingstone heavy oil project. The 2 things that you probably don’t want to own in a $50 oil and $2.50 gas environment, is an early stage, capital intensive gas project and a heavy oil project.

Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$2.170
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 30, 2015

Doesn’t know what the lows were in 2008, but that could be a reasonable projection as to where it would end up. Watch for some complex action, up and down, up and down, for a little while. That tells you a base is being put in. Trend on this has been lower lows and lower highs. When that stops happening and there is a progression of sideways activity, that is a sign that the downtrend is over.

Doesn’t know what the lows were in 2008, but that could be a reasonable projection as to where it would end up. Watch for some complex action, up and down, up and down, for a little while. That tells you a base is being put in. Trend on this has been lower lows and lower highs. When that stops happening and there is a progression of sideways activity, that is a sign that the downtrend is over.

Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management
Price
$1.860
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 7, 2015

Has undergone some interesting transitions. One is a Put option on their Dover property, which brought in a new player and gave them a bunch of cash. 12 months ago he would have been really skeptical about the payment of that Put. They got half, so that is behind them now. There is more coming by the end of August. One thing they have to pay attention to is their thermal projects. Because of low oil prices, all the heavier oil SAGD mining operation projects are under scrutiny. What are costs versus what you are going to sell your oil for? They will have to be diligent to prove to the world that thermal projects are economic at a price. Their light oil projects are pretty good. He would be favourably inclined towards this company.

Has undergone some interesting transitions. One is a Put option on their Dover property, which brought in a new player and gave them a bunch of cash. 12 months ago he would have been really skeptical about the payment of that Put. They got half, so that is behind them now. There is more coming by the end of August. One thing they have to pay attention to is their thermal projects. Because of low oil prices, all the heavier oil SAGD mining operation projects are under scrutiny. What are costs versus what you are going to sell your oil for? They will have to be diligent to prove to the world that thermal projects are economic at a price. Their light oil projects are pretty good. He would be favourably inclined towards this company.

Bill Bonner
President & Portfolio Manager, Brickburn Asset Management Inc
Price
$2.240
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 23, 2014

Sold their Dover play for $1.2 billion and their debt load is $770 million. They don’t have huge revenues, so they have a lot of troubles, but at the same time, they have some cash to play with. When you are buying these companies that have these debt loads, you have to remember that maybe you can lose everything.

Sold their Dover play for $1.2 billion and their debt load is $770 million. They don’t have huge revenues, so they have a lot of troubles, but at the same time, they have some cash to play with. When you are buying these companies that have these debt loads, you have to remember that maybe you can lose everything.

Benj Gallander
President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter
Price
$2.650
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 2, 2014

He would have thought this would have held up better, because it got the payment from the Chinese and so it has about $2 as share in cash, which is the opposite of some of the others. Doesn’t pay a dividend, has a lot of cash and has a good balance sheet. But it is also kind of a prospective company that needs to spend some money to bring production on stream. This will not be the 1st stock to move, by far. Wait for oil prices to come up and other seniors to move first.

He would have thought this would have held up better, because it got the payment from the Chinese and so it has about $2 as share in cash, which is the opposite of some of the others. Doesn’t pay a dividend, has a lot of cash and has a good balance sheet. But it is also kind of a prospective company that needs to spend some money to bring production on stream. This will not be the 1st stock to move, by far. Wait for oil prices to come up and other seniors to move first.

Bruce Campbell (1)
President, Campbell and Lee InvMngmnt
Price
$2.430
Owned
No
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
December 1, 2014

The mad money category if you can stand extreme volatility. They are becoming remarkably interesting to a value investor. He can see the temptation to get in, but would want a company that is less volatile and has a sustainable dividend.

The mad money category if you can stand extreme volatility. They are becoming remarkably interesting to a value investor. He can see the temptation to get in, but would want a company that is less volatile and has a sustainable dividend.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$2.540
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 21, 2014

Chart is a very ugly picture, but at $3 it gives the company a market capitalization of $1.2 billion. This is basically what Petro China paid them. He likes what they have in their Duvernay assets and the growth they have in Hangingstone. If oil prices slipped down to $60-$65 a barrel, there is going to be risk to the whole energy sector, but their balance sheet is in very good shape.

Chart is a very ugly picture, but at $3 it gives the company a market capitalization of $1.2 billion. This is basically what Petro China paid them. He likes what they have in their Duvernay assets and the growth they have in Hangingstone. If oil prices slipped down to $60-$65 a barrel, there is going to be risk to the whole energy sector, but their balance sheet is in very good shape.

John Zechner
Chairman, J. Zechner & Assoc
Price
$3.200
Owned
Yes
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