Athabasca Oil Sands Corp

ATH-T

TSE:ATH

0.18
0.00 (0.00%)
Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets.
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Analysis and Opinions about ATH-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 14, 2016

To him, this has always been one of those stocks that is an “over the horizon” situation. Although he is moderately optimistic about the oil sector, the oil sands have a new future ahead of them. $50 oil is pretty skinny for the oil sands, and a lot of projects are probably going to go by the boards.

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To him, this has always been one of those stocks that is an “over the horizon” situation. Although he is moderately optimistic about the oil sector, the oil sands have a new future ahead of them. $50 oil is pretty skinny for the oil sands, and a lot of projects are probably going to go by the boards.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 10, 2016

Since 2015, this has been in a very gentle downtrend. He wouldn’t buy this until it breaks out of that pattern and starts to show some actual new highs and new lows to the upside.

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Since 2015, this has been in a very gentle downtrend. He wouldn’t buy this until it breaks out of that pattern and starts to show some actual new highs and new lows to the upside.

HOLD
HOLD
March 1, 2016

Has a $475 million deal pending with Murphy Oil (MUR-N) that is supposed to close this month. This is pretty much reflected in the stock price. It gives them a lot of cash in their books. The capital commitment to the project is huge. At this stage, the issue is more the price of oil. At $35 oil, the project doesn’t make economic sense to develop. If there was a $60+ oil, then it would be better.

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Has a $475 million deal pending with Murphy Oil (MUR-N) that is supposed to close this month. This is pretty much reflected in the stock price. It gives them a lot of cash in their books. The capital commitment to the project is huge. At this stage, the issue is more the price of oil. At $35 oil, the project doesn’t make economic sense to develop. If there was a $60+ oil, then it would be better.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 16, 2016

Murphy Oil (MUR-N) threw $400 million into the Duvernay plays for this company. Also, Athabasca sold off some of their oil sands assets giving them $700 million in paper. They still have a large debt position, but have liquid assets to offset it, so are pretty close to being debt free. These are big growing assets. However, oil sands producers are high cost producers, so if oil prices were to stay at $30, they would have a lot of problems. This one seems like a reasonable shot, but not without risk.

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Murphy Oil (MUR-N) threw $400 million into the Duvernay plays for this company. Also, Athabasca sold off some of their oil sands assets giving them $700 million in paper. They still have a large debt position, but have liquid assets to offset it, so are pretty close to being debt free. These are big growing assets. However, oil sands producers are high cost producers, so if oil prices were to stay at $30, they would have a lot of problems. This one seems like a reasonable shot, but not without risk.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 4, 2015

Has avoided this stock. Has always considered it to be an over the horizon stock, i.e., the earnings were way out there somewhere. Oil sands have really taken a hit.

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Has avoided this stock. Has always considered it to be an over the horizon stock, i.e., the earnings were way out there somewhere. Oil sands have really taken a hit.

SELL
SELL
December 2, 2015

(Market Call Minute.) There are a few challenges for the company. They are in the Duvernay which is a gas play and there is not enough cash flow for this company.

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(Market Call Minute.) There are a few challenges for the company. They are in the Duvernay which is a gas play and there is not enough cash flow for this company.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 19, 2015

There is evidence that oil is possibly putting in a base. This could possibly happen on the stock, but it is way too early in the game to make that prediction. He would want to see a definitive move off the base that it is forming before he got anywhere near excited.

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There is evidence that oil is possibly putting in a base. This could possibly happen on the stock, but it is way too early in the game to make that prediction. He would want to see a definitive move off the base that it is forming before he got anywhere near excited.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 28, 2015

In the last 48 hours, everything has been ripped through and getting so beaten up that he is trying to find what could come out of this. This is probably not where you want to go first. They have big construction. There is no real clarity on it. It still comes up with some question marks.

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In the last 48 hours, everything has been ripped through and getting so beaten up that he is trying to find what could come out of this. This is probably not where you want to go first. They have big construction. There is no real clarity on it. It still comes up with some question marks.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 12, 2015

This is one where her own opinion is improving, but she is not quite there yet. Just started their Hangingstone SAGD project, which would give them some nice sustainable cash flow if there is some nice production growth from it. Has huge opportunities, but is pretty cash flow poor. With the SAGD, that will help little, but she needs to see some execution on that front. Have a lot of cash on the books because of what they got from China, but it is going to be spent to prove up the Duvernay.

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This is one where her own opinion is improving, but she is not quite there yet. Just started their Hangingstone SAGD project, which would give them some nice sustainable cash flow if there is some nice production growth from it. Has huge opportunities, but is pretty cash flow poor. With the SAGD, that will help little, but she needs to see some execution on that front. Have a lot of cash on the books because of what they got from China, but it is going to be spent to prove up the Duvernay.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 10, 2015

The issue is the oil sands projects where they struck a deal with the Chinese. This is an area of sensitivity with the NDP government. Executives think the #1 target will be the oil sands because of its long life and the revenue they could generate. The other area of concern is their other major play, the Duvernay lands. Although it is highly prospective, it requires a lot more work and is very expensive. In this pricing environment they don’t have the cash flow to finance it effectively.

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The issue is the oil sands projects where they struck a deal with the Chinese. This is an area of sensitivity with the NDP government. Executives think the #1 target will be the oil sands because of its long life and the revenue they could generate. The other area of concern is their other major play, the Duvernay lands. Although it is highly prospective, it requires a lot more work and is very expensive. In this pricing environment they don’t have the cash flow to finance it effectively.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 1, 2015

They have a good asset and have monetized part of it. With the capital spending you need in the sector there is no need to just buy it and wait for something to happen.

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They have a good asset and have monetized part of it. With the capital spending you need in the sector there is no need to just buy it and wait for something to happen.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
May 27, 2015

The deal they did with the Chinese group has now been concluded and the cash is in the bank. They have access to $1 billion of funding. The question now is what do they do next. Thinks it is a pretty good speculative buy currently.

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The deal they did with the Chinese group has now been concluded and the cash is in the bank. They have access to $1 billion of funding. The question now is what do they do next. Thinks it is a pretty good speculative buy currently.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 22, 2015

Oil sands are the most at risk on future pricing. He has never been a fan of this. You have to be careful getting into a long-term project that takes a long time to bring to market, and if the pricing of the product, at some point, may come under pressure. We are in that spot right now

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Oil sands are the most at risk on future pricing. He has never been a fan of this. You have to be careful getting into a long-term project that takes a long time to bring to market, and if the pricing of the product, at some point, may come under pressure. We are in that spot right now

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 15, 2015

This is quite interesting. It has been decimated in the decline of oil. It went public at $18. This has a solid asset for a longer-term investor. If you like oil sands, you could buy this. Don’t trade it; just own it for the next cycle.

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This is quite interesting. It has been decimated in the decline of oil. It went public at $18. This has a solid asset for a longer-term investor. If you like oil sands, you could buy this. Don’t trade it; just own it for the next cycle.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 8, 2015

This is a bull market stock in the sense that they have 2 major projects. One is Hangingstone, an oil sands project, and the other is Duvernay acreage. Both are higher cost projects. He thinks you need $80-$90 oil for the Duvernay to be feasible, and at $65-$70 you could probably look at Hangingstone, so there is no need to own it currently.

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This is a bull market stock in the sense that they have 2 major projects. One is Hangingstone, an oil sands project, and the other is Duvernay acreage. Both are higher cost projects. He thinks you need $80-$90 oil for the Duvernay to be feasible, and at $65-$70 you could probably look at Hangingstone, so there is no need to own it currently.

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