Athabasca Oil Sands Corp

ATH-T

TSE:ATH

0.44
0.06 (14.29%)
Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets.
More at Wikipedia

Analysis and Opinions about ATH-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
HOLD
HOLD
November 15, 2019
He thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.
He thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.385
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 11, 2019
The market cap has become too small for a large fund manager to follow anymore. He sold around $0.82 and it continued to sell off much lower. That scared him about the liquidity. He would need to see $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials to be able to generate enough free cash flow to excite him back in. On top of that, their JV in Duvernay will require more capital outlay soon. He would look elsewhere.
The market cap has become too small for a large fund manager to follow anymore. He sold around $0.82 and it continued to sell off much lower. That scared him about the liquidity. He would need to see $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials to be able to generate enough free cash flow to excite him back in. On top of that, their JV in Duvernay will require more capital outlay soon. He would look elsewhere.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.540
Owned
No
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 11, 2019
(A Top Pick Oct 19/18, Down 63%) Unfortunately the market cap has become too small for the big institutional investors to be interested in this. He expects the dividend paying energy stocks would rebound well before this one does.
(A Top Pick Oct 19/18, Down 63%) Unfortunately the market cap has become too small for the big institutional investors to be interested in this. He expects the dividend paying energy stocks would rebound well before this one does.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.540
Owned
No
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 30, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 61%) He sold it and bought Cenovus. There's no demand for micro-caps which ATH sadly has become. Their cash flow goes up the most if WCS differentials stay low. To own this, you must believe in $60 WTI or $15 or less differentials. Also, ATh didn't want to buyback shares, which he disagrees with. It now trades near all-time lows.
(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 61%) He sold it and bought Cenovus. There's no demand for micro-caps which ATH sadly has become. Their cash flow goes up the most if WCS differentials stay low. To own this, you must believe in $60 WTI or $15 or less differentials. Also, ATh didn't want to buyback shares, which he disagrees with. It now trades near all-time lows.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.570
Owned
No
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 19, 2019

(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 58%) A small-cap oil stock, but nobody is buying small-cap oil. They are the most levered to a rising oil price or a compressing WCS oil price differential. Their outlook is good, but the market isn't buying. He sold this and bought Cenovus and Whitecap Resources.

(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 58%) A small-cap oil stock, but nobody is buying small-cap oil. They are the most levered to a rising oil price or a compressing WCS oil price differential. Their outlook is good, but the market isn't buying. He sold this and bought Cenovus and Whitecap Resources.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.720
Owned
No
WATCH
WATCH
July 17, 2019
He does not currently own this. They have a billion dollar joint venture to explore the Duvernay and a similar venture with Statoil and also in thermal development. This may be creating some angst with investors. He is watching this to see how this develops, but is not ready to step in yet.
He does not currently own this. They have a billion dollar joint venture to explore the Duvernay and a similar venture with Statoil and also in thermal development. This may be creating some angst with investors. He is watching this to see how this develops, but is not ready to step in yet.
Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$0.740
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 26, 2019
ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.010
Owned
_N/A
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2019
If you believe in $60 oil or higher, this offers the highest leverage of any name. If you believe in $55 or lower, you do not want to own this. This company is very sensitive to oil price and oil differential. Negative cash flow at $55 oil and positive cash flow at $60 oil. If Line 3 does come on next year, and oil by rail ramps up, and if get positive resolution to Keystone or trans mountain, this could be a double or triple.
If you believe in $60 oil or higher, this offers the highest leverage of any name. If you believe in $55 or lower, you do not want to own this. This company is very sensitive to oil price and oil differential. Negative cash flow at $55 oil and positive cash flow at $60 oil. If Line 3 does come on next year, and oil by rail ramps up, and if get positive resolution to Keystone or trans mountain, this could be a double or triple.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.850
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 25, 2019
He thinks WCS will stabilize at $17 discount to WTI for the next few years. If you see Line 3 being completed this year and rail filling the gap, this company offers a tremendous leverage to tightening WCS. Their debt levels have been cut sharply. At $55 WTI, this company generates massive cash flow. At $80 WTI and $20 WCS discount, his target is $4.13 for the stock price. At $70 it is $2.67 per share. You can see the leverage.
He thinks WCS will stabilize at $17 discount to WTI for the next few years. If you see Line 3 being completed this year and rail filling the gap, this company offers a tremendous leverage to tightening WCS. Their debt levels have been cut sharply. At $55 WTI, this company generates massive cash flow. At $80 WTI and $20 WCS discount, his target is $4.13 for the stock price. At $70 it is $2.67 per share. You can see the leverage.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.980
Owned
Unknown
BUY
BUY
December 14, 2018
When MEG-T is gone, ATH-T will be the highest levered company to tightening heavy differentials. They trade on 11 times cash flow and that can fall to 4.5 times with a tighter heavy differential. He sees heavy differentials at $20. He sees a target of $2.67 in share price. He is the second largest shareholder in this company. (Analysts’ price target is $2.16)
When MEG-T is gone, ATH-T will be the highest levered company to tightening heavy differentials. They trade on 11 times cash flow and that can fall to 4.5 times with a tighter heavy differential. He sees heavy differentials at $20. He sees a target of $2.67 in share price. He is the second largest shareholder in this company. (Analysts’ price target is $2.16)
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.060
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
November 16, 2018
He likes the long term prospects. He thinks he is the largest shareholder of this company. It is a small cap name, but should be able to monetize some midstream assets very soon which will reduce debt. He thinks this could be a multi bagger. It is one of his higher beta names.
He likes the long term prospects. He thinks he is the largest shareholder of this company. It is a small cap name, but should be able to monetize some midstream assets very soon which will reduce debt. He thinks this could be a multi bagger. It is one of his higher beta names.
Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.070
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 19, 2018

With MEG potentially taken out, this may the only significant opportunity to maximize the torque of heavy of oil differentials tightening. He expects the valuation to rise by 50%-100% on oil prices between $70-$80 per barrel.

With MEG potentially taken out, this may the only significant opportunity to maximize the torque of heavy of oil differentials tightening. He expects the valuation to rise by 50%-100% on oil prices between $70-$80 per barrel.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.520
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
September 14, 2018

This holds the type of exposure to oil he likes best as he is very bullish on oil prices going forward. With the Canadian energy sector at the point that everyone hates it, now is the time to buy. They are going to monetize their midstream assets that are high in demand, which will allow them to pay down almost all their debt. If you run an $80 WTI price, he sees this trading in the mid-$4 range.

This holds the type of exposure to oil he likes best as he is very bullish on oil prices going forward. With the Canadian energy sector at the point that everyone hates it, now is the time to buy. They are going to monetize their midstream assets that are high in demand, which will allow them to pay down almost all their debt. If you run an $80 WTI price, he sees this trading in the mid-$4 range.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.380
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 17, 2018

He hopes they will be able to monetize their midstream assets in the near future for $300 million, which would almost eliminate their debt. This is a good play for tightening heavy oil differentials and higher WTI – which he sees over $80 next year. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.44)

He hopes they will be able to monetize their midstream assets in the near future for $300 million, which would almost eliminate their debt. This is a good play for tightening heavy oil differentials and higher WTI – which he sees over $80 next year. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.44)

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.500
Owned
Yes
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 10, 2018

A heavy oil producer that has a lot of leverage on the balance sheet. It trades a relative cheap multiple, but he does not like the exposure to heavy oil. It is a speculative name in his mind that lacks the growth parameters they look for.

A heavy oil producer that has a lot of leverage on the balance sheet. It trades a relative cheap multiple, but he does not like the exposure to heavy oil. It is a speculative name in his mind that lacks the growth parameters they look for.

Mike Archibald
Associate Portfolio Manager, AGF Investments
Price
$1.540
Owned
No
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 20, 2018

They are the number two in Canada. Should be able to monetize some assets and should be debt free. The name is trading at just over 2 times EBITA. At $70 oil, he sees a 102% upside. At $80 oil, he sees an upside of 172%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.41)

They are the number two in Canada. Should be able to monetize some assets and should be debt free. The name is trading at just over 2 times EBITA. At $70 oil, he sees a 102% upside. At $80 oil, he sees an upside of 172%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.41)

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.790
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 15, 2018

Pay attention to producers, and how they’re going to respond to the price of oil. Look at the big producers, the Suncors of the world. They’re going to lead the commodities. Athabasca was up $0.01, when oil was down. Expect Athabasca to get its legs underneath it and start to push ahead. The resistance level is important. Looks pretty good, but prefers Parex, Kelt, and Enerplus.

Pay attention to producers, and how they’re going to respond to the price of oil. Look at the big producers, the Suncors of the world. They’re going to lead the commodities. Athabasca was up $0.01, when oil was down. Expect Athabasca to get its legs underneath it and start to push ahead. The resistance level is important. Looks pretty good, but prefers Parex, Kelt, and Enerplus.

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI
Chief Portfolio Manager & Founder, Castlemoore Inc.
Price
$1.670
Owned
No
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 11, 2018

They have higher operating costs due to oil sands. He has not sold any when it recently peaked. We have exhausted sellers recently. They could be debt free by end of year. (Analysts’ target: $2.25).

They have higher operating costs due to oil sands. He has not sold any when it recently peaked. We have exhausted sellers recently. They could be debt free by end of year. (Analysts’ target: $2.25).

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.740
Owned
Yes
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 14, 2018

He's simply not buying Athabasca (or CPG-T) [to answer a client whose question involves an inside joke].

He's simply not buying Athabasca (or CPG-T) [to answer a client whose question involves an inside joke].

Richard Croft
President, R.N. Croft Financial Group Inc.
Price
$1.920
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 10, 2018

He likes the move it has done recently on good volume but if you look at the longer term, it is not there yet.

He likes the move it has done recently on good volume but if you look at the longer term, it is not there yet.

Elliott Fishman
Director of U.S. and international equity trading, Trading Services Group, Scotia Wealth
Price
$1.860
Owned
No
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 4, 2018

His go to name for when WTI returns to $80 next year. Even at today’s high stock price, this could still go to $5 per share. They have reduced their leverage and could become debt-free in the near future. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.85 )

His go to name for when WTI returns to $80 next year. Even at today’s high stock price, this could still go to $5 per share. They have reduced their leverage and could become debt-free in the near future. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.85 )

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.670
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 17, 2018

There is a concern that they have too much debt. However, they have been reducing it and are now down to 275 million debt, which is about 2x cash flow. They could be debt free in the next 3-to-4 months because they are going to be monetizing some of their infrastructure assets. This offers the highest leverage to a change in oil price. This is where money will flow when there is a change in sentiment. They have 55% exposure to light oil, a long reserve life, with a clean balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is 1.70$)

There is a concern that they have too much debt. However, they have been reducing it and are now down to 275 million debt, which is about 2x cash flow. They could be debt free in the next 3-to-4 months because they are going to be monetizing some of their infrastructure assets. This offers the highest leverage to a change in oil price. This is where money will flow when there is a change in sentiment. They have 55% exposure to light oil, a long reserve life, with a clean balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is 1.70$)

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.430
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 8, 2018

The company hit the marketplace with a flurry of deals 10 years ago. For the most part, hey executed on those deals. More like a macro call on oil.

The company hit the marketplace with a flurry of deals 10 years ago. For the most part, hey executed on those deals. More like a macro call on oil.

Gerard Ferguson
CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management
Price
$1.020
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 5, 2018

He would be concerned, not because of the oil price, but because of oil differentials. Historically the “heavy oil” differential was about $15. This company is not integrated, so doesn't have refinery capabilities, so are exposed to a raw bitumen price. Canada is out of pipe, and as a result has to ship barrels by rail. There’ve been some challenges for rail companies to scale up, and at the same time oil is now competing with grains and products to get rail capacity. The differential should settle at about $20 in the next month, but looming ahead of us is a change from the International Maritime Association, where they have mandated all ships globally to not be able to burn fuel with a sulphur content in excess of 0.5% or 1.5%. In Canada, the average is closer to 4.5%, so demand for Canadian heavy could be reduced, or the differential will need to maintain a wider than historical average, to compensate refiners from having to add additional complexity.

He would be concerned, not because of the oil price, but because of oil differentials. Historically the “heavy oil” differential was about $15. This company is not integrated, so doesn't have refinery capabilities, so are exposed to a raw bitumen price. Canada is out of pipe, and as a result has to ship barrels by rail. There’ve been some challenges for rail companies to scale up, and at the same time oil is now competing with grains and products to get rail capacity. The differential should settle at about $20 in the next month, but looming ahead of us is a change from the International Maritime Association, where they have mandated all ships globally to not be able to burn fuel with a sulphur content in excess of 0.5% or 1.5%. In Canada, the average is closer to 4.5%, so demand for Canadian heavy could be reduced, or the differential will need to maintain a wider than historical average, to compensate refiners from having to add additional complexity.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.070
Owned
Unknown
HOLD
HOLD
January 2, 2018

A "wait and see" story. It has done very, very little in the last 2.5 years. If you own this and you believe in the energy sector, he would continue to hold. It will probably be at the same price next year.

A "wait and see" story. It has done very, very little in the last 2.5 years. If you own this and you believe in the energy sector, he would continue to hold. It will probably be at the same price next year.

Elliott Fishman
Director of U.S. and international equity trading, Trading Services Group, Scotia Wealth
Price
$1.110
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 15, 2017

A heavy oil producer, primarily in the oil sands. Their leverage to the oil price is higher than others. It’s one of the high beta names that people typically trade around, as opposed to investing in.

A heavy oil producer, primarily in the oil sands. Their leverage to the oil price is higher than others. It’s one of the high beta names that people typically trade around, as opposed to investing in.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.170
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 19, 2017

If you want to be in Canada, and want a very small cap and uber leverage to the oil price, this is a pretty good pick. They did a royalty deal on their oil sands project, which was nothing short of genius. Payments don’t start until oil exceed something like $70-$75. Their total cash/cost break-evens are around $44. If you are a believer in $65-$70 oil, this stock could really, really work. If you are a believer that we are stuck in a $50-$60 range for the next year, there are better areas to be in.

If you want to be in Canada, and want a very small cap and uber leverage to the oil price, this is a pretty good pick. They did a royalty deal on their oil sands project, which was nothing short of genius. Payments don’t start until oil exceed something like $70-$75. Their total cash/cost break-evens are around $44. If you are a believer in $65-$70 oil, this stock could really, really work. If you are a believer that we are stuck in a $50-$60 range for the next year, there are better areas to be in.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$0.910
Owned
Unknown
BUY
BUY
March 23, 2017

One of the best beta picks you can select in Canada today. They have a high quality asset. They have an increase in free cash flow, which they can now deploy. They have extraordinary leverage to an increase in oil price. It is probably not the best investment unless you believe in oil higher than $50. It could double if you are bullish on oil.

One of the best beta picks you can select in Canada today. They have a high quality asset. They have an increase in free cash flow, which they can now deploy. They have extraordinary leverage to an increase in oil price. It is probably not the best investment unless you believe in oil higher than $50. It could double if you are bullish on oil.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.410
Owned
Unknown
BUY
BUY
February 10, 2017

About 10 years ago, they had a number of oil sand leases they sold off to Japanese partners. As they developed those, they collected the money and bought other assets and started drilling them. Recently bought a big oil sands operating project off of Statoil (STO-N). A good asset at a bargain price. The stock is fairly cheap. You could buy this one here and just hold onto it.

About 10 years ago, they had a number of oil sand leases they sold off to Japanese partners. As they developed those, they collected the money and bought other assets and started drilling them. Recently bought a big oil sands operating project off of Statoil (STO-N). A good asset at a bargain price. The stock is fairly cheap. You could buy this one here and just hold onto it.

Craig Porter
Senior Portfolio Manager, LOGiQ Asset Management
Price
$1.800
Owned
Yes
HOLD
HOLD
December 6, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Keeping an eye on this because they’ve had a changeover of management and board. They seem to be doing the right things, but just not quite there yet for him.

(Market Call Minute.) Keeping an eye on this because they’ve had a changeover of management and board. They seem to be doing the right things, but just not quite there yet for him.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$1.450
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 16, 2016

An interesting one, and she is warming up to the story. It has lots of opportunities in terms of a shale play called the Duvernay. They are trying to maintain cash flow with a SAGD heavy oil project that they are doing quite well with. Thinks there is a future with this company. If oil prices go to $32, this will be hit because it is a heavy oil story.

An interesting one, and she is warming up to the story. It has lots of opportunities in terms of a shale play called the Duvernay. They are trying to maintain cash flow with a SAGD heavy oil project that they are doing quite well with. Thinks there is a future with this company. If oil prices go to $32, this will be hit because it is a heavy oil story.

Swanzy Quarshie
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$1.120
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 2, 2016

Usually, in resources, if you have a lot of land or a lot of cash, time is your friend. This is the only one in Canada that had a lot of land and a lot of cash, and time was their enemy. What they had promised to investors was taking their conventional oil sands business, using the excess cash it had generated, and investing in a bunch of unconventional opportunities. What they ran out of was time and money.

Usually, in resources, if you have a lot of land or a lot of cash, time is your friend. This is the only one in Canada that had a lot of land and a lot of cash, and time was their enemy. What they had promised to investors was taking their conventional oil sands business, using the excess cash it had generated, and investing in a bunch of unconventional opportunities. What they ran out of was time and money.

Greg Dean
Principal & Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Asset Management
Price
$1.220
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 29, 2016

Not a name he would own. They did a highly admirable job of deleveraging and doing a streaming deal on their oil. Everyone knows the catalysts that have come and gone and now no one cares. Everyone knows it is cheap and yet nothing is happening. He would look to others.

Not a name he would own. They did a highly admirable job of deleveraging and doing a streaming deal on their oil. Everyone knows the catalysts that have come and gone and now no one cares. Everyone knows it is cheap and yet nothing is happening. He would look to others.

Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners
Price
$1.230
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 31, 2016

Has a joint venture with Murphy Oil, where they are basically being carried for the next few years on a Duvernay play. They also have their thermal project, which will be pretty steady and generate a nominal amount of cash flow. Has a much healthier balance sheet now, and expects they will look for other opportunities while Murphy is busy drilling out this project.

Has a joint venture with Murphy Oil, where they are basically being carried for the next few years on a Duvernay play. They also have their thermal project, which will be pretty steady and generate a nominal amount of cash flow. Has a much healthier balance sheet now, and expects they will look for other opportunities while Murphy is busy drilling out this project.

Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$1.410
Owned
No
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 25, 2016

7.5% bond maturing Nov 19/17. Probably one of the only exploration/production companies on the continent that is in a net cash position. It will have about $900 million in cash when they do the Murphy Oil joint venture, and have about $800 million of debt. The bond is worth $550 million. More senior to it is a bank debt of about $250 million. The $250 million debt matures after the bond in 2019, which is not a position that bankers usually like. The loan has a “springing” maturity, which means if any of the bonds are outstanding 6 months before they are due, the bank debt becomes due immediately. The company likes the bank debt which has a very attractive terms. Thinks the company is going to do a combination of paying down all this bond and maybe refinance with the new bond for $150 million.

7.5% bond maturing Nov 19/17. Probably one of the only exploration/production companies on the continent that is in a net cash position. It will have about $900 million in cash when they do the Murphy Oil joint venture, and have about $800 million of debt. The bond is worth $550 million. More senior to it is a bank debt of about $250 million. The $250 million debt matures after the bond in 2019, which is not a position that bankers usually like. The loan has a “springing” maturity, which means if any of the bonds are outstanding 6 months before they are due, the bank debt becomes due immediately. The company likes the bank debt which has a very attractive terms. Thinks the company is going to do a combination of paying down all this bond and maybe refinance with the new bond for $150 million.

Paul Tepsich
Portfolio Manager, High Rock Capital Management Inc.
Price
$1.180
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 14, 2016

To him, this has always been one of those stocks that is an “over the horizon” situation. Although he is moderately optimistic about the oil sector, the oil sands have a new future ahead of them. $50 oil is pretty skinny for the oil sands, and a lot of projects are probably going to go by the boards.

To him, this has always been one of those stocks that is an “over the horizon” situation. Although he is moderately optimistic about the oil sector, the oil sands have a new future ahead of them. $50 oil is pretty skinny for the oil sands, and a lot of projects are probably going to go by the boards.

David Cockfield
Managing Director, Northland Wealth Management
Price
$1.090
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 10, 2016

Since 2015, this has been in a very gentle downtrend. He wouldn’t buy this until it breaks out of that pattern and starts to show some actual new highs and new lows to the upside.

Since 2015, this has been in a very gentle downtrend. He wouldn’t buy this until it breaks out of that pattern and starts to show some actual new highs and new lows to the upside.

Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management
Price
$1.180
Owned
Unknown
HOLD
HOLD
March 1, 2016

Has a $475 million deal pending with Murphy Oil (MUR-N) that is supposed to close this month. This is pretty much reflected in the stock price. It gives them a lot of cash in their books. The capital commitment to the project is huge. At this stage, the issue is more the price of oil. At $35 oil, the project doesn’t make economic sense to develop. If there was a $60+ oil, then it would be better.

Has a $475 million deal pending with Murphy Oil (MUR-N) that is supposed to close this month. This is pretty much reflected in the stock price. It gives them a lot of cash in their books. The capital commitment to the project is huge. At this stage, the issue is more the price of oil. At $35 oil, the project doesn’t make economic sense to develop. If there was a $60+ oil, then it would be better.

Jim Huang
President, T.I.P. Wealth Management
Price
$0.950
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 16, 2016

Murphy Oil (MUR-N) threw $400 million into the Duvernay plays for this company. Also, Athabasca sold off some of their oil sands assets giving them $700 million in paper. They still have a large debt position, but have liquid assets to offset it, so are pretty close to being debt free. These are big growing assets. However, oil sands producers are high cost producers, so if oil prices were to stay at $30, they would have a lot of problems. This one seems like a reasonable shot, but not without risk.

Murphy Oil (MUR-N) threw $400 million into the Duvernay plays for this company. Also, Athabasca sold off some of their oil sands assets giving them $700 million in paper. They still have a large debt position, but have liquid assets to offset it, so are pretty close to being debt free. These are big growing assets. However, oil sands producers are high cost producers, so if oil prices were to stay at $30, they would have a lot of problems. This one seems like a reasonable shot, but not without risk.

John Zechner
Chairman, J. Zechner & Assoc
Price
$1.030
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 4, 2015

Has avoided this stock. Has always considered it to be an over the horizon stock, i.e., the earnings were way out there somewhere. Oil sands have really taken a hit.

Has avoided this stock. Has always considered it to be an over the horizon stock, i.e., the earnings were way out there somewhere. Oil sands have really taken a hit.

David Cockfield
Managing Director, Northland Wealth Management
Price
$1.660
Owned
No
SELL
SELL
December 2, 2015

(Market Call Minute.) There are a few challenges for the company. They are in the Duvernay which is a gas play and there is not enough cash flow for this company.

(Market Call Minute.) There are a few challenges for the company. They are in the Duvernay which is a gas play and there is not enough cash flow for this company.

Swanzy Quarshie
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$1.690
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 19, 2015

There is evidence that oil is possibly putting in a base. This could possibly happen on the stock, but it is way too early in the game to make that prediction. He would want to see a definitive move off the base that it is forming before he got anywhere near excited.

There is evidence that oil is possibly putting in a base. This could possibly happen on the stock, but it is way too early in the game to make that prediction. He would want to see a definitive move off the base that it is forming before he got anywhere near excited.

Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management
Price
$1.660
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 28, 2015

In the last 48 hours, everything has been ripped through and getting so beaten up that he is trying to find what could come out of this. This is probably not where you want to go first. They have big construction. There is no real clarity on it. It still comes up with some question marks.

In the last 48 hours, everything has been ripped through and getting so beaten up that he is trying to find what could come out of this. This is probably not where you want to go first. They have big construction. There is no real clarity on it. It still comes up with some question marks.

Bill Harris, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management
Price
$1.420
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 12, 2015

This is one where her own opinion is improving, but she is not quite there yet. Just started their Hangingstone SAGD project, which would give them some nice sustainable cash flow if there is some nice production growth from it. Has huge opportunities, but is pretty cash flow poor. With the SAGD, that will help little, but she needs to see some execution on that front. Have a lot of cash on the books because of what they got from China, but it is going to be spent to prove up the Duvernay.

This is one where her own opinion is improving, but she is not quite there yet. Just started their Hangingstone SAGD project, which would give them some nice sustainable cash flow if there is some nice production growth from it. Has huge opportunities, but is pretty cash flow poor. With the SAGD, that will help little, but she needs to see some execution on that front. Have a lot of cash on the books because of what they got from China, but it is going to be spent to prove up the Duvernay.

Swanzy Quarshie
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$2.040
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 10, 2015

The issue is the oil sands projects where they struck a deal with the Chinese. This is an area of sensitivity with the NDP government. Executives think the #1 target will be the oil sands because of its long life and the revenue they could generate. The other area of concern is their other major play, the Duvernay lands. Although it is highly prospective, it requires a lot more work and is very expensive. In this pricing environment they don’t have the cash flow to finance it effectively.

The issue is the oil sands projects where they struck a deal with the Chinese. This is an area of sensitivity with the NDP government. Executives think the #1 target will be the oil sands because of its long life and the revenue they could generate. The other area of concern is their other major play, the Duvernay lands. Although it is highly prospective, it requires a lot more work and is very expensive. In this pricing environment they don’t have the cash flow to finance it effectively.

Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager, Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Price
$2.110
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 1, 2015

They have a good asset and have monetized part of it. With the capital spending you need in the sector there is no need to just buy it and wait for something to happen.

They have a good asset and have monetized part of it. With the capital spending you need in the sector there is no need to just buy it and wait for something to happen.