Algoma Steel

AGA-T

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Analysis and Opinions about AGA-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
February 7, 2007
There's a fair amount of speculation that the Canadian steels are all takeover targets. Starting to warm up to the steels. Have been impressed with how well they have managed inventories.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
February 7, 2007
There's a fair amount of speculation that the Canadian steels are all takeover targets. Starting to warm up to the steels. Have been impressed with how well they have managed inventories.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
December 21, 2006
Sold his holdings in the $30’s. Quite a flat chart over time. Steel industry is cyclical. This company has gone bankrupt twice at the bottom of the previous 2 steel cycles, but has new management, new balance sheet and excess cash. Outlook is a little tepid than it was.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
December 21, 2006
Sold his holdings in the $30’s. Quite a flat chart over time. Steel industry is cyclical. This company has gone bankrupt twice at the bottom of the previous 2 steel cycles, but has new management, new balance sheet and excess cash. Outlook is a little tepid than it was.
BUY
BUY
November 28, 2006
Has been a stellar performer. Bought back a lot of their shares. Steel prices look pretty solid at the moment. A cyclical company. Solid balance sheet. Will be starting to produce their own energy. Reasonable value.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
November 28, 2006
Has been a stellar performer. Bought back a lot of their shares. Steel prices look pretty solid at the moment. A cyclical company. Solid balance sheet. Will be starting to produce their own energy. Reasonable value.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 21, 2006
(A Top Pick Aug 11/05. Up 15.7%.) Brilliantly run. Great cash churning company. Wouldn't buy during this market correction, but once it over there is probably $4/5 upside.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
September 21, 2006
(A Top Pick Aug 11/05. Up 15.7%.) Brilliantly run. Great cash churning company. Wouldn't buy during this market correction, but once it over there is probably $4/5 upside.
WAIT
WAIT
September 6, 2006
Buying back $200 million of its stock via a Dutch auction. Great under valued asset play. Have their cost structure under control. Paying down their debt and returning cash to shareholders. Wait for the auction to finish when there may be a bit of a dip.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
September 6, 2006
Buying back $200 million of its stock via a Dutch auction. Great under valued asset play. Have their cost structure under control. Paying down their debt and returning cash to shareholders. Wait for the auction to finish when there may be a bit of a dip.
HOLD
HOLD
August 31, 2006
They have a lot of cash and there is speculation that they will have a very big distribution. Earnings are lower this year than they where last year. Would prefer it in the lower $30’s.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
August 31, 2006
They have a lot of cash and there is speculation that they will have a very big distribution. Earnings are lower this year than they where last year. Would prefer it in the lower $30’s.
SELL
SELL
August 28, 2006
Steel pricing continues to remain strong which indicates that either 1) things are going to continue to be good or 2) the market is saying things are going to start slowing down and steel will catch up on the downside. He would take some profits as it is probably up on speculation.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
August 28, 2006
Steel pricing continues to remain strong which indicates that either 1) things are going to continue to be good or 2) the market is saying things are going to start slowing down and steel will catch up on the downside. He would take some profits as it is probably up on speculation.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 24, 2006
Doing a share buyback. Not his top pick among the steel companies. This is a company that has gone through 2 or 3 resurrections. Expects the market for steel will be cooling off probably in 2007/2008.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
August 24, 2006
Doing a share buyback. Not his top pick among the steel companies. This is a company that has gone through 2 or 3 resurrections. Expects the market for steel will be cooling off probably in 2007/2008.
BUY
BUY
July 26, 2006
Still prices continue to rise. There will be some Chinese dumping issues going on which will put a little bit of pressure on them. Right now they are generating free cash flow yield in the 9% range.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
July 26, 2006
Still prices continue to rise. There will be some Chinese dumping issues going on which will put a little bit of pressure on them. Right now they are generating free cash flow yield in the 9% range.
BUY
BUY
July 4, 2006
Has gone up in the last 2 days because of their announcement of buying back stock starting in the next quarter. The price for their type of steel “high roll” is going up. Not a bad buy.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
July 4, 2006
Has gone up in the last 2 days because of their announcement of buying back stock starting in the next quarter. The price for their type of steel “high roll” is going up. Not a bad buy.
BUY
BUY
June 27, 2006
Steel is starting to look a little bit better again. He is worried about the whole global economy. China is tightening money to help control growth. Steel could be a casualty, but for now, with all the corporate activity, prices are starting to move higher again.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
June 27, 2006
Steel is starting to look a little bit better again. He is worried about the whole global economy. China is tightening money to help control growth. Steel could be a casualty, but for now, with all the corporate activity, prices are starting to move higher again.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 16, 2006
Has always been a tricky investment. Has gone bankrupt a couple of times. This time it has done very well. A cyclical so when it is doing extremely well, it is probably time to let it go.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
May 16, 2006
Has always been a tricky investment. Has gone bankrupt a couple of times. This time it has done very well. A cyclical so when it is doing extremely well, it is probably time to let it go.
SELL
SELL
February 27, 2006
It's a bit rich. The numbers are weaker then they were in prior years. Imports are not here so the market is stable. They are generating good earnings for the short term, but concerned that they are getting later on in the cycle.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
February 27, 2006
It's a bit rich. The numbers are weaker then they were in prior years. Imports are not here so the market is stable. They are generating good earnings for the short term, but concerned that they are getting later on in the cycle.
HOLD
HOLD
January 24, 2006
Moved up a little bit in the shadow of Dofasco (DFS-T). A US hedge fund has asked for a special meeting to get them to pay out their big wad of cash as a special dividend. Algoma is resisting but will probably pay out something.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
January 24, 2006
Moved up a little bit in the shadow of Dofasco (DFS-T). A US hedge fund has asked for a special meeting to get them to pay out their big wad of cash as a special dividend. Algoma is resisting but will probably pay out something.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 21, 2005
(A Top Pick Sept 12/05. Up 1%.) It now has a US hedge fund shareholder that's calling a vote here to pay a special dividend. Very cheap, but feels the upside is only to $27/28.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
November 21, 2005
(A Top Pick Sept 12/05. Up 1%.) It now has a US hedge fund shareholder that's calling a vote here to pay a special dividend. Very cheap, but feels the upside is only to $27/28.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 31, 2005
Steel is not doing as well as it was. US Hedge fund wants them to pay out the excess money they made in the form of a special dividend. Doubtful if this will happen.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
October 31, 2005
Steel is not doing as well as it was. US Hedge fund wants them to pay out the excess money they made in the form of a special dividend. Doubtful if this will happen.
BUY
BUY
October 12, 2005
Steel prices look like they're moving up a little bit in the 4th quarter and probably by the end of the year they'll be almost $10 in cash again. Thinks there's one last run in it just on valuation up to the mid to high $20's.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
October 12, 2005
Steel prices look like they're moving up a little bit in the 4th quarter and probably by the end of the year they'll be almost $10 in cash again. Thinks there's one last run in it just on valuation up to the mid to high $20's.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 6, 2005
Buying back shares and paying special dividends which is stupid as they will need that extra cash in the next down cycle of steel. A very cyclical business. Steel prices have weakened and if we have a recession in the US there will be a dampening of steel demand.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
October 6, 2005
Buying back shares and paying special dividends which is stupid as they will need that extra cash in the next down cycle of steel. A very cyclical business. Steel prices have weakened and if we have a recession in the US there will be a dampening of steel demand.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 12, 2005
Paid a $6 special dividend last month which is why it is down. In the $22/23 range, you have about $11 a share in cash and it looks like steel prices are turning around a little bit. They could probably earn in the $3.50 range next year with current steel prices.Only trades at 3/4 X earnings if you ex the cash. Extremely cheap.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
September 12, 2005
Paid a $6 special dividend last month which is why it is down. In the $22/23 range, you have about $11 a share in cash and it looks like steel prices are turning around a little bit. They could probably earn in the $3.50 range next year with current steel prices.Only trades at 3/4 X earnings if you ex the cash. Extremely cheap.
SELL
SELL
August 18, 2005
Not a fan of steel in general. The steel industry is going much more into a competitive phase. China is now a net exporter. Doesn't see the steel industry being good for the next several years.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
August 18, 2005
Not a fan of steel in general. The steel industry is going much more into a competitive phase. China is now a net exporter. Doesn't see the steel industry being good for the next several years.
HOLD
HOLD
August 11, 2005
Paying out a special dividend of $6. With high steel prices, has really cleaned up its balance sheet and has more than $6 a share in cash. Possible share buy-back next year. A cyclical company that rises and falls with steel prices. If you like, continue to hold or sell it and realize a capital gain.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
August 11, 2005
Paying out a special dividend of $6. With high steel prices, has really cleaned up its balance sheet and has more than $6 a share in cash. Possible share buy-back next year. A cyclical company that rises and falls with steel prices. If you like, continue to hold or sell it and realize a capital gain.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 11, 2005
A strange situation. Were for sale but have now taken themselves off the market and announced a $6 dividend. Hedge funds had been holding for a takeout and so sold off their holdings which dropped the price.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
August 11, 2005
A strange situation. Were for sale but have now taken themselves off the market and announced a $6 dividend. Hedge funds had been holding for a takeout and so sold off their holdings which dropped the price.
BUY
BUY
August 5, 2005
Have a lot of cash on hand and is expected to pay a big dividend. Historically, stocks trade lower after special dividends. Likes the phenominal profit growth that he sees. Good speculative investment.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
August 5, 2005
Have a lot of cash on hand and is expected to pay a big dividend. Historically, stocks trade lower after special dividends. Likes the phenominal profit growth that he sees. Good speculative investment.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 8, 2005
Was a bust in 2001 and restructured and came out when steel prices took off and they played it very well. Has come down since March because the steel cycle is coming off at the margin. Still making lots of money. If you feel it might get taken out you could speculate on it. It is amongst the weaker players. Prefers Dofasco (DFS-T).
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
June 8, 2005
Was a bust in 2001 and restructured and came out when steel prices took off and they played it very well. Has come down since March because the steel cycle is coming off at the margin. Still making lots of money. If you feel it might get taken out you could speculate on it. It is amongst the weaker players. Prefers Dofasco (DFS-T).
VAGUE
VAGUE
May 16, 2005
The group including Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA-T), Algoma (AGA-T), Ipsco (IPS-T) and Dofasco (DFS-T) to a lesser extent has come off of its peak. Looks like steel prices have peaked for the cycle yet these stocks are extremely statistically cheap. Could be some activity like takeovers, as cash builds up. Find one that is cheap and could be taken over.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
May 16, 2005
The group including Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA-T), Algoma (AGA-T), Ipsco (IPS-T) and Dofasco (DFS-T) to a lesser extent has come off of its peak. Looks like steel prices have peaked for the cycle yet these stocks are extremely statistically cheap. Could be some activity like takeovers, as cash builds up. Find one that is cheap and could be taken over.
BUY
BUY
March 24, 2005
Prefers this for the leveraged side of steel as opposed to Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA-T) in the hot rolled steel. To be safe, you could go to the fabricators, Harris (HSG-T) or Russel (RUS-T).
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
March 24, 2005
Prefers this for the leveraged side of steel as opposed to Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA-T) in the hot rolled steel. To be safe, you could go to the fabricators, Harris (HSG-T) or Russel (RUS-T).
WAIT
WAIT
March 14, 2005
Steel stocks can be very volatile. His sector model on the steels has recently rolled over indicating some short term risks. Feels that the cycle and the pricing power of the steel producers remains intact. Wouldn't buy at this time.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
March 14, 2005
Steel stocks can be very volatile. His sector model on the steels has recently rolled over indicating some short term risks. Feels that the cycle and the pricing power of the steel producers remains intact. Wouldn't buy at this time.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 25, 2005
Doesn't like the steel industry. Companies have been helped by the price of steel going up so high. Have to be careful and buy a good company that is run well and that is key in the steel industry. Feels that China has been building plants and that they will be an exporter of steel.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
February 25, 2005
Doesn't like the steel industry. Companies have been helped by the price of steel going up so high. Have to be careful and buy a good company that is run well and that is key in the steel industry. Feels that China has been building plants and that they will be an exporter of steel.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 2, 2005
(A Top Pick June 22/04. Up 174%.) Sold out a couple of months ago.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
February 2, 2005
(A Top Pick June 22/04. Up 174%.) Sold out a couple of months ago.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 31, 2005
Wouldn't buy steels right now. They've had a fantastic run, but it looks like the numbers in China are starting to slow down. In Ontario, regulations are coming off electricity prices and that will be a big cost for the steels. A stronger Cdn$ will also be a burden.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
January 31, 2005
Wouldn't buy steels right now. They've had a fantastic run, but it looks like the numbers in China are starting to slow down. In Ontario, regulations are coming off electricity prices and that will be a big cost for the steels. A stronger Cdn$ will also be a burden.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 5, 2005
Valuations on steel stocks have gotten excessive.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
January 5, 2005
Valuations on steel stocks have gotten excessive.
BUY
BUY
January 4, 2005
Has the most leverage and generates the most cash. Try to buy in the $28's.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
January 4, 2005
Has the most leverage and generates the most cash. Try to buy in the $28's.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 31, 2004
Favourite steel play at this time is Ipsco.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
December 31, 2004
Favourite steel play at this time is Ipsco.
BUY
BUY
December 30, 2004
Although the stock has tripled, it does not mean that all the good news is reflected in the price. China's slowing demand for steel is having a negative affect on steel producers. There will not be as much reduction in demand as many people think.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
December 30, 2004
Although the stock has tripled, it does not mean that all the good news is reflected in the price. China's slowing demand for steel is having a negative affect on steel producers. There will not be as much reduction in demand as many people think.
BUY
BUY
December 10, 2004
A forgotten story for a long time. Now it's a hot stock and a hot story. Very profitable with no net debt. Feels the steel prices wil stay high. Very cheap.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
December 10, 2004
A forgotten story for a long time. Now it's a hot stock and a hot story. Very profitable with no net debt. Feels the steel prices wil stay high. Very cheap.
HOLD
HOLD
December 7, 2004
This monstrous steel market is going to continue.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
December 7, 2004
This monstrous steel market is going to continue.
HOLD
HOLD
December 3, 2004
Major steel shortage problems around the world have pushed up the steel stocks. This stock is in a spike uptrend and is dangerous to buy at this time. If you own, use a stop/loss.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
December 3, 2004
Major steel shortage problems around the world have pushed up the steel stocks. This stock is in a spike uptrend and is dangerous to buy at this time. If you own, use a stop/loss.
BUY
BUY
November 17, 2004
Steel is cyclical. Has been a very consistant mover. Pricing of steel has stayed strong and capacity is tight. Relatively cheap compared to some of its competitors.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
November 17, 2004
Steel is cyclical. Has been a very consistant mover. Pricing of steel has stayed strong and capacity is tight. Relatively cheap compared to some of its competitors.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 15, 2004
(A Top Pick Aug 6/04. Up 92%.) Took some profit.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
November 15, 2004
(A Top Pick Aug 6/04. Up 92%.) Took some profit.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 5, 2004
Avoid. The business seems to continually go back into bankruptcy.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
November 5, 2004
Avoid. The business seems to continually go back into bankruptcy.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
November 3, 2004
Low price/earnings ratio. A high cost producer, so in a high steel cycle it will make lots of money, but when the price of steel drops, it has losses. OK for short term.
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Algoma Steel (AGA-T)
November 3, 2004
Low price/earnings ratio. A high cost producer, so in a high steel cycle it will make lots of money, but when the price of steel drops, it has losses. OK for short term.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 12, 2004
Steel prices have been stronger much longer than he expected. Feels its at a peak now.
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