Walt Disney | StockChase
364
Walt Disney (DIS-N)

Last Price Recorded: $103.6000 on 2017-11-16

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Nov 2000

entertainment services

Walt Disney



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Date Signal Company Opinion Expert
2017-11-06
BUY

DIS-N

$100.640

Walt Disney


Parks and movies is where the bulk of the revenue is from.  When you hear news of ESPN hurting them, that is the time to buy them.  The Frozen franchise is the cash cow that never seems to end. 

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Erin Gibbs

V.P.

BULLISH on US MARKET
2017-10-24
COMMENT

DIS-N

$98.290

Walt Disney


Doesn’t think this is a good time to be getting into this. Sold his holdings 2 or 3 years ago because everybody thought the Marvel movies were an absolute layup, but as it turns out nothing is assured in this business. Also thinks people are dropping ESPN. There has also been a tremendous growth of online.

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David Fingold

VP and Portfolio Manager

2017-10-20
TOP PICK

DIS-N

$99.400

Walt Disney


Peaked at $116 in March or April. The worries had been on ESPN, cord cutting, etc. That has mostly happened, and they are acting to take measures to stop the bleeding and do different vehicles of distributing. ESPN was 110 million subscribers a year ago, and now it is like 89 million. “Live sports” is one of the last bastions of things that will stay. There is another Star Wars movie coming, and usually the stock does well. Also they get the attendant merchandise sales and all that. All it really has to do is go back to where it was, and you would have a 16% return. The entry point is attractive. Dividend yield of 1.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $113.50.)

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Bruce Campbell (1)

President

2017-10-16
COMMENT

DIS-N

$98.130

Walt Disney


Had to kind of talk down earnings due to hurricanes, and close up their theme parks for a couple of days. This year has been tough because there hasn’t been a good movie slate. Q4 numbers are going to come out soon, and there were no new releases in Q4. These issues are well known. ESPN is now about 20% of their operations. The company has one of the best assets in the world in their theme park operations, which probably represents about 40% of their business. They have pricing power and attendance is growing and there is launching of more and more additions to the theme parks.

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Barry Schwartz

CIO & Portfolio Manager

2017-10-13
DON'T BUY

DIS-N

$97.380

Walt Disney


This is a really great company. There are lots of companies with stretched valuations, and this is one of them. It looks too rich, as well as having a bit of problem with ESPN. His charts show him an improving ROC, which has been improving for about 8 years. Unfortunately, the stock has also improved for about 8 years. What if returns start to slide a little.

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Matt Kacur

President

2017-10-12
COMMENT

DIS-N

$96.930

Walt Disney


Besides movies, this has theme parks, cable networks, consumer products, etc. Has owned this, made some money, but decided to cut loose at this time. Trading at about 10.3X Enterprise Value over EBITDA, which is in line with historical metrics over the last 10 years. 1.6% dividend yield, which they are going to grow modestly over the next few years. They’ve cautioned about 2017 weakness, due to higher costs associated with sports and tough film comps. That is going to ease in 2018. Also, Star Wars is coming out in December. Some of the near-term positives are a strong movie slate, theme parks, including Shanghai. However, the ESPN cord shaving is in mind, which will continue to push the stock down. $90 could represent a better re-entry point.

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Stan Wong

Director & Portfolio Manager

OPTIMISTIC
2017-10-11
BUY

DIS-N

$98.550

Walt Disney


She is buying this for her new clients. The media sector as a whole has had an overhang, in terms of how people are consuming media and how it is going to be priced going forward. What they have going for them is their content and the type of content. ESPN is a big overhang, because people are streaming and not buying the big cable packages. Sports is a type of medium that people generally want to watch live. They announced they’re going to launch a consumer product for ESPN next year. Eventually they see it as a “pick and pay” where you can choose specific shows. They’ve also announced a consumer product for 2019 for their Disney content. For a long-term investment, this is an attractive entry point.

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Christine Poole

CEO & Managing Director

OPTIMISTIC
2017-10-10
DON'T BUY

DIS-N

$99.580

Walt Disney


Disney (DIS-N) or Comcast (CMCSA-Q)? Both fall into the media space, which is particularly challenged right now. The sector is fighting headwinds. He is more positive on Disney, but it has been struggling. With cord cutting, re-bundling, etc. you are fighting the tide, so he would prefer Comcast. However, in the space as a whole, he would prefer not to fight the headwinds.

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Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer

OPTIMISTIC
2017-10-03
PAST TOP PICK

DIS-N

$100.790

Walt Disney


(A Top Pick July 7/16. Up 3%.) People were concerned about ESPN, so-called cord cutters and carriage contracts. He is still a believer. They have a lot of intellectual properties in their film library. They’ve announced their own streaming service, so are going into competition with Netflix.

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David Baskin

President

2017-09-20
HOLD

DIS-N

$99.210

Walt Disney


There has been a lot of news lately on the cable side of things, which has been an overhang. They recently released some news on their plans to move away from partnering with Netflix in terms of streaming. They have the content and it will be positive. It would take a couple of years to get there. Has an amazing library of content as well as potentially having the cable side of ESPN, which could fold into that. In the meantime, they have great movie franchises.

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Zachary Curry

Chief Operating Officer & Portfolio Manager

BULLISH on CANADIAN MARKET
2017-09-12
COMMENT

DIS-N

$97.890

Walt Disney


The CEO spoke at a conference last week, and brought earnings guidance down for the fiscal year 2017, which ends in September. With the hurricanes in Florida, they are going to see less traffic including decreased occupancy in hotels. Have also had to cancel some of their cruise ships. They are going to start streaming direct to consumers’ platforms including ESPN. They envision this to have 10,000 new sporting programs that they are not currently showing. See it as being an a la carte menu where you can just choose to watch one big game or one league, without having to tap them all. The 2nd platform is their Disney platform which is going to include Disney Pixar, Marvel and Lucas films, which they are going to launch in 2019. All of this looks promising.

entertainment services

Christine Poole

CEO & Managing Director

BULLISH
2017-09-05
BUY

DIS-N

$101.600

Walt Disney


This has world-class properties. They have the theme parks, which are unmatched by any other company. They have ESPN, your premier sports channel. There are first-class movie and entertainment productions. Currently it is a little bit on sale because of concerns about how ESPN content is going to get to the consumer and the high prices they can charge for traditional cable distributors is started to weaken a little. Increasingly, people are just wanting to stream their entertainment over their handheld device, and bypass some of the cable companies. Thinks all of this is fully reflected in the price.

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David Dietze

Founder, Pres. & Chief Investment Strategist

OPTIMISTIC
2017-08-29
HOLD

DIS-N

$102.570

Walt Disney


There’s been a lot of concerns, particularly over the ESPN franchise, a key part of the business and very profitable. With all the issues over cord cutting, ESPN is not able to hold viewers the way people thought they would. Longer-term, if the stock pulls back enough and gets cheap enough, it will probably be a good opportunity. They have great content and great brand. They have the theme park business and the movie production business, and over time ESPN is going to be a very valuable franchise.

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Colin Stewart

CEO & Portfolio manager

CAUTIOUS
2017-08-29
COMMENT

DIS-N

$102.570

Walt Disney


Their parks business may be one of the greatest businesses in the world’s history. They have enormous pricing power, and raise their prices every year. The other part of their business is the movies slate. Not so good in 2017, but 2018 looks amazing for them. ESPN is the drag, and they are losing subscribers. The bad news is already reflected in the stock price and it is trading at a very cheap multiple. Thinks we are going to see double digit earnings growth in 2018. They are buying back stock. No one is giving them any value for the enormous amount of free cash flow they generate. They know what they are doing.

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Barry Schwartz

CIO & Portfolio Manager

BULLISH
2017-08-14
COMMENT

DIS-N

$101.400

Walt Disney


Finds this too hard to analyse. Sold his holdings about 2 years ago. They just opened up a huge question mark by going into the streaming business. Are their products compelling enough that people will enter into a completely new subscription, with perhaps an entirely new app?

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David Fingold

VP and Portfolio Manager

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