Cenovus Energy

CVE-T

TSE:CVE

3.85
0.05 (1.32%)
Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated oil company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. Cenovus was formed on December 1, 2009 when Encana Corporation split into two distinct companies, with Cenovus becoming a focused integrated oil company.
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Analysis and Opinions about CVE-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 28, 2018

He likes the sector. Heavy oil play can make some sense. The balance sheet is worse than most players in the sector. Growth is lower than competitors. He has a bias towards the entire sector. A rising tide might lift all boats.

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He likes the sector. Heavy oil play can make some sense. The balance sheet is worse than most players in the sector. Growth is lower than competitors. He has a bias towards the entire sector. A rising tide might lift all boats.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 11, 2018

Large caps will underperform the mid-caps. This one is different because of the high leverage to oil. As a large cap liquid name if you are bullish in oil ($65 or higher), okay but otherwise look at WCP-T.

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Large caps will underperform the mid-caps. This one is different because of the high leverage to oil. As a large cap liquid name if you are bullish in oil ($65 or higher), okay but otherwise look at WCP-T.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 1, 2018

He's added to his position. The market didn't like them buying Conoco's assets (overpaid); they took on a lot debt. But the new CEO has done well cutting costs. They've been hit by the WCS differential. This has a lot of room to move higher, levered to a higher oil price. De-leveraging will happen quickly with rising oil prices. This week's oil pullback is a buying opportunity. (Analysts' price target: $16.27)

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He's added to his position. The market didn't like them buying Conoco's assets (overpaid); they took on a lot debt. But the new CEO has done well cutting costs. They've been hit by the WCS differential. This has a lot of room to move higher, levered to a higher oil price. De-leveraging will happen quickly with rising oil prices. This week's oil pullback is a buying opportunity. (Analysts' price target: $16.27)

BUY
BUY
May 11, 2018

Had there been 4 top picks this would have been the fourth. He really likes it. They bought Conoco assets last year. The street didn’t like the deal and lost confidence in Management. They have new Management now with a new CEO that is on the path of right-sizing the company and its balance sheet. It is looking really well now, particularly if we go to a 80 – 90 dollars barrel of oil.

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Had there been 4 top picks this would have been the fourth. He really likes it. They bought Conoco assets last year. The street didn’t like the deal and lost confidence in Management. They have new Management now with a new CEO that is on the path of right-sizing the company and its balance sheet. It is looking really well now, particularly if we go to a 80 – 90 dollars barrel of oil.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 7, 2018

(Past Top Pick on Oct. 3, 2017, Up 10%) Oil prices are up and he's positive energy. With a new CEO, he likes their new direction. He's been with this since its bottom (he averaged down). Has great long-term assets. But they've enjoyed a great run for the past six months so he may exit.

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(Past Top Pick on Oct. 3, 2017, Up 10%) Oil prices are up and he's positive energy. With a new CEO, he likes their new direction. He's been with this since its bottom (he averaged down). Has great long-term assets. But they've enjoyed a great run for the past six months so he may exit.

BUY
BUY
May 3, 2018

The story is turning around here. He is modeling 55% cash flow growth 2018 to 2019. Trades at 5 times 2019 cash flow which is reasonable. The problem here is their balance sheet is 3.5 times debt to cash flow. This will come down if oil prices stay at these levels. A name you can own if you like oil.

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The story is turning around here. He is modeling 55% cash flow growth 2018 to 2019. Trades at 5 times 2019 cash flow which is reasonable. The problem here is their balance sheet is 3.5 times debt to cash flow. This will come down if oil prices stay at these levels. A name you can own if you like oil.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 1, 2018

Their Q1 production was 488,000 boe/day because of all their acquisitions but they reported losses from their hedge book. Their operating margin was $157 million cash versus $305 a year before, but they spent $522 million. The company has $9.8 billion of debt, up from 9.5 billion at the end of December. They have about a half billion dollars of assets for sale. They have $19.4 billion of equity. Book value (ex goodwill) is about $13.92, which is higher than the stock price. The dividend is about 5 cents per quarter. They have a new CEO. It is not clear where their growth will be. Schachter thinks they should focus on their thermal operations and get rid of their conventional-world assets. He is concerned about the balance sheet. The debt to equity ratio looks tolerable. He compared it to Whiting Petroleum, Chesapeake Energy and WPX Energy, all well-known American energy companies that are treated as very exciting but have much worse balance sheets. He sees the Canadian energy companies as value stories compared to the American ones. The bargains are in Canada.

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Their Q1 production was 488,000 boe/day because of all their acquisitions but they reported losses from their hedge book. Their operating margin was $157 million cash versus $305 a year before, but they spent $522 million. The company has $9.8 billion of debt, up from 9.5 billion at the end of December. They have about a half billion dollars of assets for sale. They have $19.4 billion of equity. Book value (ex goodwill) is about $13.92, which is higher than the stock price. The dividend is about 5 cents per quarter. They have a new CEO. It is not clear where their growth will be. Schachter thinks they should focus on their thermal operations and get rid of their conventional-world assets. He is concerned about the balance sheet. The debt to equity ratio looks tolerable. He compared it to Whiting Petroleum, Chesapeake Energy and WPX Energy, all well-known American energy companies that are treated as very exciting but have much worse balance sheets. He sees the Canadian energy companies as value stories compared to the American ones. The bargains are in Canada.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 13, 2018

He expects the heavy oil differential to have recovered in a year’s time. Yield %. (Analysts’ price target is $ )

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
April 13, 2018

He expects the heavy oil differential to have recovered in a year’s time. Yield %. (Analysts’ price target is $ )

SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
March 19, 2018

He does not see any improvement in the technical chart – it is still in a down trend. There is some evidence of a bottom formation, but it is early. He would take profit above $11. He is weary of this one.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
March 19, 2018

He does not see any improvement in the technical chart – it is still in a down trend. There is some evidence of a bottom formation, but it is early. He would take profit above $11. He is weary of this one.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
March 12, 2018

They put some hedges on and then the differentials blew out. A lot of US investors are taking positions right now. Crude by rail contracts are being signed. Keystone could get up and going any minute now. They bought the best oil sands properties. Eventually you will see this company recover.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
March 12, 2018

They put some hedges on and then the differentials blew out. A lot of US investors are taking positions right now. Crude by rail contracts are being signed. Keystone could get up and going any minute now. They bought the best oil sands properties. Eventually you will see this company recover.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
February 22, 2018

CPG-T vs. CVE-T. Seasonality starts Feb 25th. Today they announced a draw from inventory rather than a build. This might be enough to get this one going. He would prefer CVE-T a little bit more.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
February 22, 2018

CPG-T vs. CVE-T. Seasonality starts Feb 25th. Today they announced a draw from inventory rather than a build. This might be enough to get this one going. He would prefer CVE-T a little bit more.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
February 15, 2018

Since the acquisition almost 3 years ago they have made divestitures and paid the debt down. You could do worse.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
February 15, 2018

Since the acquisition almost 3 years ago they have made divestitures and paid the debt down. You could do worse.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 13, 2018

She is not buying energy now because of her overall negative view of the Canadian energy market at this time. If she was going to buy at this time, she would buy a large producer (which Cenovus is) but she would prefer CNQ because it is more diversified a

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
February 13, 2018

She is not buying energy now because of her overall negative view of the Canadian energy market at this time. If she was going to buy at this time, she would buy a large producer (which Cenovus is) but she would prefer CNQ because it is more diversified a

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 12, 2018

Leery at $9 level. If it closes below $9 it's got plenty of room to fall.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
February 12, 2018

Leery at $9 level. If it closes below $9 it's got plenty of room to fall.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 6, 2018

He is negative on the commodity space generally and has not participated in the rise in oil and gas prices. He doesn’t see the rise as based on fundamentals and sees high geopolitical risk. Strongly prefers US Oil and Gas companies over Canadian ones at this time.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
February 6, 2018

He is negative on the commodity space generally and has not participated in the rise in oil and gas prices. He doesn’t see the rise as based on fundamentals and sees high geopolitical risk. Strongly prefers US Oil and Gas companies over Canadian ones at this time.

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