Deutsche Bank AG

DB-N

NYSE:DB

9.69
0.20 (2.11%)
Deutsche Bank AG is a German investment bank and financial services company headquartered in Frankfurt, Hesse, Germany. The bank is present in 58 countries with a large presence in Europe, the Americas and Asia.
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Analysis and Opinions about DB-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 11, 2018

The issue is they have not recovered from issues in the US and the global 2008 financial crisis. The CEO has just been replaced. The problem is regulators have forced banks to get out of higher margins business. The Trump Administration has helped reverse some of this. If you have a multi-year hold this could be interesting.

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The issue is they have not recovered from issues in the US and the global 2008 financial crisis. The CEO has just been replaced. The problem is regulators have forced banks to get out of higher margins business. The Trump Administration has helped reverse some of this. If you have a multi-year hold this could be interesting.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 23, 2018

(A Top Pick Jun 9/17, Down 19%) They are on their second turnaround team. The assets are good. It is a bank that went through 2008 and will not fail but we had to wait a long time. This one is the problem child in Europe. He has not sold it and will give them a couple more quarters.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
April 23, 2018

(A Top Pick Jun 9/17, Down 19%) They are on their second turnaround team. The assets are good. It is a bank that went through 2008 and will not fail but we had to wait a long time. This one is the problem child in Europe. He has not sold it and will give them a couple more quarters.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 10, 2018

He would stay away from it. They are mostly focused on lines of business that are shrinking. For example, they do a large business in writing letters of credit, but international trade has been shrinking, as a percentage of GDP, for years. Deglobalization started in 2010/2011 has been happening for years, since Accenture concluded that offshoring probably cost money rather than saving money. There is now a trend of nearshoring: jobs are coming home because costs are lower here. You don’t need letters of credit when you are moving within a region. Also, they face capital strain under Basil III. They were a very significant underwriter of mortgage-backed securities. Sub-Prime and Alt-A products basically don’t exist any more, so Deutsche Bank no longer offers that mix of products; it is now marketing a low-margin product. A recent report from JP Morgan can be summarized as “They should shut their New York branch and go home.” They have been severely impacted by Tax Reform and their financing in the US appears to be high cost.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
April 10, 2018

He would stay away from it. They are mostly focused on lines of business that are shrinking. For example, they do a large business in writing letters of credit, but international trade has been shrinking, as a percentage of GDP, for years. Deglobalization started in 2010/2011 has been happening for years, since Accenture concluded that offshoring probably cost money rather than saving money. There is now a trend of nearshoring: jobs are coming home because costs are lower here. You don’t need letters of credit when you are moving within a region. Also, they face capital strain under Basil III. They were a very significant underwriter of mortgage-backed securities. Sub-Prime and Alt-A products basically don’t exist any more, so Deutsche Bank no longer offers that mix of products; it is now marketing a low-margin product. A recent report from JP Morgan can be summarized as “They should shut their New York branch and go home.” They have been severely impacted by Tax Reform and their financing in the US appears to be high cost.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 4, 2018

Rising interest rates will benefit large banks. Their CEO changed through a disastrous period, but DB has since recovered. Caveat: big banks may raise their dividends slower than the smaller global banks.

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Rising interest rates will benefit large banks. Their CEO changed through a disastrous period, but DB has since recovered. Caveat: big banks may raise their dividends slower than the smaller global banks.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 28, 2018

Down 30% in 2018. They've been cost-cutting, selling assets and fired the CEO. Also, US banks are enjoying interest rate hikes, but not Europe's banks because interest rates aren't moving. DB doesn't have a model for good capital allocation and its underwriting is not great. Net interest income growth was -15% last year. Poor earnings in last quarter. You're speculating on this as a turnaround play. Risky. Other banks are safer.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
March 28, 2018

Down 30% in 2018. They've been cost-cutting, selling assets and fired the CEO. Also, US banks are enjoying interest rate hikes, but not Europe's banks because interest rates aren't moving. DB doesn't have a model for good capital allocation and its underwriting is not great. Net interest income growth was -15% last year. Poor earnings in last quarter. You're speculating on this as a turnaround play. Risky. Other banks are safer.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 12, 2018

There are better European banks to own. It's a little expensive. They are large in capital markets, but not in (German) retail. In the corporate finance side they invested heavily in fixed income. Balance sheet isn't as good as other banks and they'll probably issue more equity down the road. They're trying to sell their asset management business, which is wrong, because it generates fees. Plus, there's more re-structuring to come. Their culture has to change. Santander, Barclays, Lloyds and ING are better.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
March 12, 2018

There are better European banks to own. It's a little expensive. They are large in capital markets, but not in (German) retail. In the corporate finance side they invested heavily in fixed income. Balance sheet isn't as good as other banks and they'll probably issue more equity down the road. They're trying to sell their asset management business, which is wrong, because it generates fees. Plus, there's more re-structuring to come. Their culture has to change. Santander, Barclays, Lloyds and ING are better.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 18, 2017

(A Top Pick May 4/17. Up 18%.) When that option expired in October, it was below the Strike price, so the option would have just expired worthless.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
December 18, 2017

(A Top Pick May 4/17. Up 18%.) When that option expired in October, it was below the Strike price, so the option would have just expired worthless.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 20, 2017

It is too complicated for him to invest in. It is too difficult to analyze.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
November 20, 2017

It is too complicated for him to invest in. It is too difficult to analyze.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 17, 2017

Has been a laggard and went through things other banks haven’t. Chart looks similar to last year’s where we had some higher lows, where the longer-term trend was broken. You want to see this move up through that line substantially, and it has already done that. Some indicators are starting to turn up. This should move with rates going higher. The break out through $18 was an indication this should move higher.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
November 17, 2017

Has been a laggard and went through things other banks haven’t. Chart looks similar to last year’s where we had some higher lows, where the longer-term trend was broken. You want to see this move up through that line substantially, and it has already done that. Some indicators are starting to turn up. This should move with rates going higher. The break out through $18 was an indication this should move higher.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 2, 2017

He wouldn't buy this. There are so many other banks you could buy that are in much better shape. The difficult thing is that they don't know what they want to be. They had a massive investment banking franchise. He would suggest looking at Bank Santander (SAN-N), a good retail bank and a good wealth management company in Europe with a huge franchise in Latin America.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
November 2, 2017

He wouldn't buy this. There are so many other banks you could buy that are in much better shape. The difficult thing is that they don't know what they want to be. They had a massive investment banking franchise. He would suggest looking at Bank Santander (SAN-N), a good retail bank and a good wealth management company in Europe with a huge franchise in Latin America.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 31, 2017

This could be a Buy based on his view of undervalued European banks. You would probably see a couple of good years going forward in the European stock market. However there is still a bit of hair on this. It's cheap, trading at about .4X BV. There are other banks or service companies you could buy that doesn't have as much hair. He would go with names like Credit Suisse that trades at about .8X BV or UniCredit, an Italian bank trading at .75X BV.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
October 31, 2017

This could be a Buy based on his view of undervalued European banks. You would probably see a couple of good years going forward in the European stock market. However there is still a bit of hair on this. It's cheap, trading at about .4X BV. There are other banks or service companies you could buy that doesn't have as much hair. He would go with names like Credit Suisse that trades at about .8X BV or UniCredit, an Italian bank trading at .75X BV.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 30, 2017

They raised capital and did not put it to good use. It is not going to earn a dime, but will prop up the balance sheet. He focuses on the balance sheet and this is an example of some of those risks that show up in them.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
October 30, 2017

They raised capital and did not put it to good use. It is not going to earn a dime, but will prop up the balance sheet. He focuses on the balance sheet and this is an example of some of those risks that show up in them.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 27, 2017

There was lots of press about them going to go under. While the global economy is going well, even if there is stuff hidden underneath the carpets, it is probably not going to come out. If you believe the global economy is doing well, then you would expect this company to come out and do okay. Chart shows the stock is trading in a channel and is currently at the bottom of the channel, which is good right now.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
October 27, 2017

There was lots of press about them going to go under. While the global economy is going well, even if there is stuff hidden underneath the carpets, it is probably not going to come out. If you believe the global economy is doing well, then you would expect this company to come out and do okay. Chart shows the stock is trading in a channel and is currently at the bottom of the channel, which is good right now.

BUY
BUY
October 23, 2017

Merkel won the election, which was holding things back. He thinks the other European banks will go the same way. They will raise rates and reduce regulation, which are good for banks. This is a core bank in Europe that is ready to go.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
October 23, 2017

Merkel won the election, which was holding things back. He thinks the other European banks will go the same way. They will raise rates and reduce regulation, which are good for banks. This is a core bank in Europe that is ready to go.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 23, 2017

This bank is now properly capitalized. They’ve been through the worst and are selling at about a 50% discount to tangible BV. They are not the best in the business, but they do deserve to sell for a much higher price than what they are trading at. Earnings have stabilized and they are earning money. One of the cheapest stocks he owns.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
October 23, 2017

This bank is now properly capitalized. They’ve been through the worst and are selling at about a 50% discount to tangible BV. They are not the best in the business, but they do deserve to sell for a much higher price than what they are trading at. Earnings have stabilized and they are earning money. One of the cheapest stocks he owns.

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