Arc Resources Ltd

ARX-T

TSE:ARX

7.72
0.01 (0.13%)
ARC was founded in 1996 as a royalty trust with the acquisition of 21 properties from Mobil Oil Canada. The acquisition was funded by an initial IPO of $180 million on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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Analysis and Opinions about ARX-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
WAIT
WAIT
February 5, 2018

Gas has been weak so they did badly. She has been wanting to add this because they are a solid name at a 52 week low. Her clients are more focused on short and medium term gains, however. If we get through the next month or two without a decline in gas prices, it could be time to buy.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 5, 2018

Gas has been weak so they did badly. She has been wanting to add this because they are a solid name at a 52 week low. Her clients are more focused on short and medium term gains, however. If we get through the next month or two without a decline in gas prices, it could be time to buy.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
January 26, 2018

The effective payout ratio is 142% for 2017, which is something not sustainable. However, their balance sheet isn't bad, trading at 2.2X 2019 debt to cash flow. Valuation has improved quite a bit. It’s a high, high quality company that has just been caught in the middle of the storm with ECO prices having dropped the way they have. He models 10% production growth over the next few years. They have great assets and are very capital efficient. In a taxable account, it’s something you could be nibbling on. Dividend yield of 4.3%.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 26, 2018

The effective payout ratio is 142% for 2017, which is something not sustainable. However, their balance sheet isn't bad, trading at 2.2X 2019 debt to cash flow. Valuation has improved quite a bit. It’s a high, high quality company that has just been caught in the middle of the storm with ECO prices having dropped the way they have. He models 10% production growth over the next few years. They have great assets and are very capital efficient. In a taxable account, it’s something you could be nibbling on. Dividend yield of 4.3%.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 23, 2018

This has been punished recently and it has pulled back. Yet it has some of the highest quality, long life assets amongst the choices out there. It also has an extremely strong balance sheet. Debt to cash flow is under 1.5X, significantly below its peers. Has a good growth profile going forward. Dividend yield of 4.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $20.)

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 23, 2018

This has been punished recently and it has pulled back. Yet it has some of the highest quality, long life assets amongst the choices out there. It also has an extremely strong balance sheet. Debt to cash flow is under 1.5X, significantly below its peers. Has a good growth profile going forward. Dividend yield of 4.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $20.)

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 17, 2018

One of the best houses in a bad neighbourhood. A very high quality natural gas operator in Western Canada, in the Montney. They are producing in Alberta and British Columbia, were natural gas prices are nowhere near what they are getting for New York Mercantile gas. There is an excess supply of natural gas being produced in Western Canada. He’s generally vacated the gas producer space for the time being. He wouldn't be a buyer.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 17, 2018

One of the best houses in a bad neighbourhood. A very high quality natural gas operator in Western Canada, in the Montney. They are producing in Alberta and British Columbia, were natural gas prices are nowhere near what they are getting for New York Mercantile gas. There is an excess supply of natural gas being produced in Western Canada. He’s generally vacated the gas producer space for the time being. He wouldn't be a buyer.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 28, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 10/17, Down 26%) He tax loss sold it and then bought it back yesterday. It is a good energy company with an excellent balance sheet and excellent properties. No one cared about energy this year and it was out of favour. Canadian Natural Gas prices were quite poor this year. The worst is behind it, however.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 28, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 10/17, Down 26%) He tax loss sold it and then bought it back yesterday. It is a good energy company with an excellent balance sheet and excellent properties. No one cared about energy this year and it was out of favour. Canadian Natural Gas prices were quite poor this year. The worst is behind it, however.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2017

In terms of who is the best in consistency and track record, it is probably this company. It’s not just natural gas price in a company like this. They have much more exposure to getting the oil price as well as the natural gas price. However, gas is so low he had hoped he could get these things at a decent valuation. Because the company has done so well, it still has a premium valuation. He thinks he has a more consistent story out of Cenovus (CVE-T). (See Top Picks.)

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 20, 2017

In terms of who is the best in consistency and track record, it is probably this company. It’s not just natural gas price in a company like this. They have much more exposure to getting the oil price as well as the natural gas price. However, gas is so low he had hoped he could get these things at a decent valuation. Because the company has done so well, it still has a premium valuation. He thinks he has a more consistent story out of Cenovus (CVE-T). (See Top Picks.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 15, 2017

This has just fallen apart with ECO prices, with Henry hub falling. The markets have been so good that portfolio managers are just taking losers and dumping them as tax loss selling targets. Thinks there will be a pop between now and the 3rd week of January. The bad news is that the dividend has a 142% effective payout ratio, so it is not safe. The balance sheet is not ironclad.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 15, 2017

This has just fallen apart with ECO prices, with Henry hub falling. The markets have been so good that portfolio managers are just taking losers and dumping them as tax loss selling targets. Thinks there will be a pop between now and the 3rd week of January. The bad news is that the dividend has a 142% effective payout ratio, so it is not safe. The balance sheet is not ironclad.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 22, 2017

(A Top Pick Dec 28/16. Down 30%.) In hindsight, this had been a mistake. The company has an excellent balance sheet, great management, is mostly natural gas in the Montney area. He was optimistic on the price of natural gas. His mistake was buying a Canadian natural gas stock rather than a US natural gas stock. The Henry hub price for natural gas has gone up significantly since last year. Unfortunately, most of the Canadian natural gas does not get priced at Henry hub, they get AECO which is priced off of Alberta, and that price has collapsed.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 22, 2017

(A Top Pick Dec 28/16. Down 30%.) In hindsight, this had been a mistake. The company has an excellent balance sheet, great management, is mostly natural gas in the Montney area. He was optimistic on the price of natural gas. His mistake was buying a Canadian natural gas stock rather than a US natural gas stock. The Henry hub price for natural gas has gone up significantly since last year. Unfortunately, most of the Canadian natural gas does not get priced at Henry hub, they get AECO which is priced off of Alberta, and that price has collapsed.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 16, 2017

A well run company. The problem with this and a lot of the Western Canadian E&P’s is that the biggest part of production is natural gas coming out of Western Canada. At times in September, that production was basically worthless. The oil and condensates they are producing is worth quite a bit of money, but gas is almost being given away. The Western Canadian gas market continues to be depressed, and will be for a number of years.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 16, 2017

A well run company. The problem with this and a lot of the Western Canadian E&P’s is that the biggest part of production is natural gas coming out of Western Canada. At times in September, that production was basically worthless. The oil and condensates they are producing is worth quite a bit of money, but gas is almost being given away. The Western Canadian gas market continues to be depressed, and will be for a number of years.

Alex Ruus

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Price
$16.010
Owned
Unknown
HOLD
HOLD
November 6, 2017

Natural Gas. He does not have big exposure to the natural gas space. He thinks it will be an increasingly important way going forward to replace coal. There are huge, huge supplies. It will probably range trade for years. He does not see a huge upside. He would hold now but if over the winter we get a cold spell and it shoots up gas prices, then it would be a time to liquidate. Oil will trade at a discount to the North American market due to a lack of pipeline capacity.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 6, 2017

Natural Gas. He does not have big exposure to the natural gas space. He thinks it will be an increasingly important way going forward to replace coal. There are huge, huge supplies. It will probably range trade for years. He does not see a huge upside. He would hold now but if over the winter we get a cold spell and it shoots up gas prices, then it would be a time to liquidate. Oil will trade at a discount to the North American market due to a lack of pipeline capacity.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 3, 2017

Thinks LNG terminals ultimately get built in Western Canada, but not very excited about natural gas prices in the near term. This company is good and its balance sheet is good for 2018. Further into 2019, the balance sheet deteriorates with natural gas prices being where they are. Not cheap relative to its peers, trading at around 9X, whereas its peers are trading at around 7X. Doesn't see a whole lot of growth. Nice dividend, but is at a 165% payout ratio.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 3, 2017

Thinks LNG terminals ultimately get built in Western Canada, but not very excited about natural gas prices in the near term. This company is good and its balance sheet is good for 2018. Further into 2019, the balance sheet deteriorates with natural gas prices being where they are. Not cheap relative to its peers, trading at around 9X, whereas its peers are trading at around 7X. Doesn't see a whole lot of growth. Nice dividend, but is at a 165% payout ratio.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 31, 2017

This is known as a gas stock, but is fairly balanced with 60% gas and 40% oil. They have a great play in British Columbia, one of the higher-quality gas formations. Good management. You've seen a $10 pull back in the share price, similar to other gas stocks. Pays a nice dividend. It will have its time again. You just have to wait for colder weather and the supply/demand balance.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 31, 2017

This is known as a gas stock, but is fairly balanced with 60% gas and 40% oil. They have a great play in British Columbia, one of the higher-quality gas formations. Good management. You've seen a $10 pull back in the share price, similar to other gas stocks. Pays a nice dividend. It will have its time again. You just have to wait for colder weather and the supply/demand balance.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 25, 2017

(A Top Pick Dec 21/16. Down 31.7%) A lot of the gas related stocks have been hit hard recently. The key in the gas and oil sector is to buy stocks that are well financed that can take advantage of opportunities on the market. He thinks we will see better results in the future and in the meantime you get a 3% dividend.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 25, 2017

(A Top Pick Dec 21/16. Down 31.7%) A lot of the gas related stocks have been hit hard recently. The key in the gas and oil sector is to buy stocks that are well financed that can take advantage of opportunities on the market. He thinks we will see better results in the future and in the meantime you get a 3% dividend.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 17, 2017

This is at EBV+2, $15.44. His model price is $18. They are paying out $.60. A mean estimate for earnings for next year is $.65. If there was a negative transit of $15.44, or the stock price goes below that, that is a Sell signal, and he would sell it.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 17, 2017

This is at EBV+2, $15.44. His model price is $18. They are paying out $.60. A mean estimate for earnings for next year is $.65. If there was a negative transit of $15.44, or the stock price goes below that, that is a Sell signal, and he would sell it.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 27, 2017

(A Top Pick Nov 8/16. Down 19%.) The whole energy complex has come down. Despite the fact that this is 70% natural gas and only 30% oil, it traded like an oil stock. In spite of being the best capitalized, one of the best run, and with great properties, especially in the Montney region of BC, it got sold off. The new BC government is against fracing, LNG, etc. It seems to have bottomed, which is a great buying opportunity.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 27, 2017

(A Top Pick Nov 8/16. Down 19%.) The whole energy complex has come down. Despite the fact that this is 70% natural gas and only 30% oil, it traded like an oil stock. In spite of being the best capitalized, one of the best run, and with great properties, especially in the Montney region of BC, it got sold off. The new BC government is against fracing, LNG, etc. It seems to have bottomed, which is a great buying opportunity.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 15, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) Kind of a granddaddy of Montney. They’ve been in the play for a long time. He is kind of looking for a consistent 12% kager (?) and growth over the next 4 years. All the infrastructure is locked in. Has a beautiful yield.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 15, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) Kind of a granddaddy of Montney. They’ve been in the play for a long time. He is kind of looking for a consistent 12% kager (?) and growth over the next 4 years. All the infrastructure is locked in. Has a beautiful yield.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 18, 2017

Oil and gas company, mostly natural gas, mostly in BC. A lot of that is explaining why it is acting as it is in the short term. It has a secure dividend. The problem is that it is in BC. He likes natural gas. Buy things when they are beaten up.

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Oil and gas company, mostly natural gas, mostly in BC. A lot of that is explaining why it is acting as it is in the short term. It has a secure dividend. The problem is that it is in BC. He likes natural gas. Buy things when they are beaten up.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 25, 2017

Montney area, 70% gas. He thinks the outlook for gas is better than oil. It has been hurt by the fact that they are a BC energy producer. We are closer to the bottom than the top in this industry. (Analysts’ target: $22.50).

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Montney area, 70% gas. He thinks the outlook for gas is better than oil. It has been hurt by the fact that they are a BC energy producer. We are closer to the bottom than the top in this industry. (Analysts’ target: $22.50).

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 16, 2017

Largely a natural gas company, largely in British Columbia. He prefers natural gas to oil. The outlook for natural gas is on “shortages of being able to be delivered”. A well-run company with a good balance sheet and good properties, largely in BC. When he bought this, there was a Liberal government that was open to resources and LNG, and now there is a coalition government who are against resources, and that is affecting the BC producers.

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Largely a natural gas company, largely in British Columbia. He prefers natural gas to oil. The outlook for natural gas is on “shortages of being able to be delivered”. A well-run company with a good balance sheet and good properties, largely in BC. When he bought this, there was a Liberal government that was open to resources and LNG, and now there is a coalition government who are against resources, and that is affecting the BC producers.

WATCH
WATCH
June 12, 2017

It was a in a downtrend and then made a base. It started taking out old highs, was moving up and then it hit a bit of a lid and took out a previously low, so it is starting a new downtrend. It may be basing again. It is too early in the basing phase, if it is basing.

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It was a in a downtrend and then made a base. It started taking out old highs, was moving up and then it hit a bit of a lid and took out a previously low, so it is starting a new downtrend. It may be basing again. It is too early in the basing phase, if it is basing.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 26, 2017

The company has reshaped itself after its particular crisis about 1.5 years back, and are operating quite comfortably, but isn’t cranking the handle for everyone. In the long-term, this will continue to be one of the majors. If you want to be in the sector, then continue to hold.

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The company has reshaped itself after its particular crisis about 1.5 years back, and are operating quite comfortably, but isn’t cranking the handle for everyone. In the long-term, this will continue to be one of the majors. If you want to be in the sector, then continue to hold.

HOLD
HOLD
May 16, 2017

Sell holdings? She actually added a bit to her holdings in December when OPEC 1st announced the production cuts. A very low cost producer and in a very attractive region in the Montney. Have a very strong balance sheet, stronger than its peers. She would not sell this, and is hoping for improved energy prices over the next 6-12 months.

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Sell holdings? She actually added a bit to her holdings in December when OPEC 1st announced the production cuts. A very low cost producer and in a very attractive region in the Montney. Have a very strong balance sheet, stronger than its peers. She would not sell this, and is hoping for improved energy prices over the next 6-12 months.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 9, 2017

Has been dramatically underweight in the energy space. He started the year with a view that oil was going to be $45-$55 for this year. Bargains are starting to appear. In the oil patch, this is one of those names he would be looking at. It’s liquid and it is well run.

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Has been dramatically underweight in the energy space. He started the year with a view that oil was going to be $45-$55 for this year. Bargains are starting to appear. In the oil patch, this is one of those names he would be looking at. It’s liquid and it is well run.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 8, 2017

This has been a disappointment. On a seasonal basis, energy stocks like this, particularly the gassy ones, do very well from around the end of January right through until the middle of May. This year, it is just not doing it. Technically it is in a downward trend and underperforming the market. Look for better opportunities elsewhere.

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This has been a disappointment. On a seasonal basis, energy stocks like this, particularly the gassy ones, do very well from around the end of January right through until the middle of May. This year, it is just not doing it. Technically it is in a downward trend and underperforming the market. Look for better opportunities elsewhere.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 25, 2017

The fact that the chart has been moving downwards, at the time that natural gas has been going up, is not a good sign. Wait for it to start to show positive absolute performance.

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The fact that the chart has been moving downwards, at the time that natural gas has been going up, is not a good sign. Wait for it to start to show positive absolute performance.

BUY
BUY
April 24, 2017

A great, long term story, although the chart looks awful. It has a good yield and it is extremely well-managed.

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A great, long term story, although the chart looks awful. It has a good yield and it is extremely well-managed.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 21, 2017

Low cost natural gas producer. Very efficient and very reliable growth. Production has steadily increased every year since 2012. Relative to the group, the valuation is okay. Great balance sheet, which is key in the oil names. A quality name, and probably an opportunity here.

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Low cost natural gas producer. Very efficient and very reliable growth. Production has steadily increased every year since 2012. Relative to the group, the valuation is okay. Great balance sheet, which is key in the oil names. A quality name, and probably an opportunity here.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2017

The grandfather of the Montney play in terms of a very well-run company. A very disciplined management team and a strong balance sheet. The issue is really just gas prices. They have a great growth plan to grow from their 120,000 BOE a day, and have the ability to get their product to market. The biggest risk is really just gas prices.

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The grandfather of the Montney play in terms of a very well-run company. A very disciplined management team and a strong balance sheet. The issue is really just gas prices. They have a great growth plan to grow from their 120,000 BOE a day, and have the ability to get their product to market. The biggest risk is really just gas prices.

BUY
BUY
March 23, 2017

You can’t fault them as a company. His problem is that you pay a premium. If you are very bullish, this is not the one to own, but you can sleep at night with this one.

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You can’t fault them as a company. His problem is that you pay a premium. If you are very bullish, this is not the one to own, but you can sleep at night with this one.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 17, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 4/16. Up 7%.) A really well-managed company. Oil and gas exposure. A yield of about 3%. Good balance sheet and well diversified in terms of operations.

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(A Top Pick Feb 4/16. Up 7%.) A really well-managed company. Oil and gas exposure. A yield of about 3%. Good balance sheet and well diversified in terms of operations.

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