Arc Resources Ltd

ARX-T

TSE:ARX

7.72
0.01 (0.13%)
ARC was founded in 1996 as a royalty trust with the acquisition of 21 properties from Mobil Oil Canada. The acquisition was funded by an initial IPO of $180 million on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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Analysis and Opinions about ARX-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 15, 2019
(A Top Pick Jan 23/18, Down 26%) Another disappointment, but he'd still recommend it. Clean balance sheet, top-tier assets. Great future. Dividend's not in jeopardy. Sold assets to boost balance sheet possibly to buy assets coming up for sale.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 15, 2019
(A Top Pick Jan 23/18, Down 26%) Another disappointment, but he'd still recommend it. Clean balance sheet, top-tier assets. Great future. Dividend's not in jeopardy. Sold assets to boost balance sheet possibly to buy assets coming up for sale.
BUY
BUY
January 11, 2019
Gas stock, not pure oil. Really likes this. It's fallen a bit due to warm weather, so it will bounce up when it turns cold which is likely this winter.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 11, 2019
Gas stock, not pure oil. Really likes this. It's fallen a bit due to warm weather, so it will bounce up when it turns cold which is likely this winter.
HOLD
HOLD
December 14, 2018
There is no distinguishing the have and have-not companies. You can now buy the best quality companies at the same discounts to their peers. Their next big production project comes on later in 2019. Management is great. We have probably reached the maximum level of capitulation.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 14, 2018
There is no distinguishing the have and have-not companies. You can now buy the best quality companies at the same discounts to their peers. Their next big production project comes on later in 2019. Management is great. We have probably reached the maximum level of capitulation.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 4, 2018
Sold it 18 months ago, because there weren't enough pipelines to take away natural gas in western Canada, just like the oil problem. Also, nat. gas production in U.S. can be shipped closer to U.S. destinations instead of shipping it from western Canada. There's no easy solution to this. We won't get an L&G terminal in BC in 2023, though it's a glimmer of hope.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 4, 2018
Sold it 18 months ago, because there weren't enough pipelines to take away natural gas in western Canada, just like the oil problem. Also, nat. gas production in U.S. can be shipped closer to U.S. destinations instead of shipping it from western Canada. There's no easy solution to this. We won't get an L&G terminal in BC in 2023, though it's a glimmer of hope.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
November 21, 2018
Expensive vs. peers, but excellent assets and an efficient operator. He sees 10% growth. He likes it. Buy only if oil hits $60-70.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 21, 2018
Expensive vs. peers, but excellent assets and an efficient operator. He sees 10% growth. He likes it. Buy only if oil hits $60-70.
WAIT
WAIT
November 14, 2018
This is a long term, well run, mostly gas run company. When LNG Canada project production starts, it may not specifically benefit Arc, but it will take some of the natgas out of the current pipeline infrastructure, which would benefit Arc. It is on her watch list. She thinks they will be buying Arc in the future.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 14, 2018
This is a long term, well run, mostly gas run company. When LNG Canada project production starts, it may not specifically benefit Arc, but it will take some of the natgas out of the current pipeline infrastructure, which would benefit Arc. It is on her watch list. She thinks they will be buying Arc in the future.
SELL
SELL
November 8, 2018
He sold in the last couple of weeks. They are mostly gas and some liquids. The price they are getting has been moving up but it will take time for the infrastructure to get in place for them to get a decent price. Long term LNG projects will be good for them.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 8, 2018
He sold in the last couple of weeks. They are mostly gas and some liquids. The price they are getting has been moving up but it will take time for the infrastructure to get in place for them to get a decent price. Long term LNG projects will be good for them.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 11, 2018

ALA-T vs. ARX-T. ALA-T is going through a reorganization. It complicates his model. The trailing PE is 19 times and it is cash flow positive. The yield is very high at 10.2% with payout at 60%. The ROE is okay at 6%. He would wait until the financing of the spin out is complete and the market should be more comfortable. He does not follow ARX-T.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 11, 2018

ALA-T vs. ARX-T. ALA-T is going through a reorganization. It complicates his model. The trailing PE is 19 times and it is cash flow positive. The yield is very high at 10.2% with payout at 60%. The ROE is okay at 6%. He would wait until the financing of the spin out is complete and the market should be more comfortable. He does not follow ARX-T.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 5, 2018

A well respected natural gas producer that had been trading too expensively. It now trades at a more reasonable 6-7 times cash flow. It remains profitable due to its liquids position. West coast LNG will benefit this stock. Yield 4.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $18.25)

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A well respected natural gas producer that had been trading too expensively. It now trades at a more reasonable 6-7 times cash flow. It remains profitable due to its liquids position. West coast LNG will benefit this stock. Yield 4.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $18.25)

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 28, 2018

Projecting 11% production growth till 2020. Balance sheet pretty good. Not a lot of cashflow per share growth. Pricier than its peers. An 111% payout ratio. If fund flows come to Canada, they’ll come to this name. Will benefit from LNG. Real key is whether oil will stay at $73. If yes, you can buy a lot of energy names, and ARC is one of them.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 28, 2018

Projecting 11% production growth till 2020. Balance sheet pretty good. Not a lot of cashflow per share growth. Pricier than its peers. An 111% payout ratio. If fund flows come to Canada, they’ll come to this name. Will benefit from LNG. Real key is whether oil will stay at $73. If yes, you can buy a lot of energy names, and ARC is one of them.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 26, 2018

He continues to own this as it is primarily natural gas focused and has a great land and reserve base. He was buying it around $12.80.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 26, 2018

He continues to own this as it is primarily natural gas focused and has a great land and reserve base. He was buying it around $12.80.

HOLD
HOLD
September 14, 2018

He has strong reason to believe a go decision will be made for an LNG project – likely in late-October. There are on the ground plans in Kitimat for festivities. ARX-T has good liquids exposure as well. He would prefer Tourmaline.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 14, 2018

He has strong reason to believe a go decision will be made for an LNG project – likely in late-October. There are on the ground plans in Kitimat for festivities. ARX-T has good liquids exposure as well. He would prefer Tourmaline.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 14, 2018

(A Top Pick August 18, 2017. Down 5%). The company executes excellently. This is primarily a gas company. Gas prices in Canada are extremely depressed because the infrastructure for gas delivery was designed to take southern Alberta gas to the US and Eastern Canada, but all the new discoveries have been made in Northern BC and Northern Alberta. The infrastructure to bring this out is still being built out. Arc has a lot of natural gas liquids. He expects natural gas prices to rise going into the Fall.

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(A Top Pick August 18, 2017. Down 5%). The company executes excellently. This is primarily a gas company. Gas prices in Canada are extremely depressed because the infrastructure for gas delivery was designed to take southern Alberta gas to the US and Eastern Canada, but all the new discoveries have been made in Northern BC and Northern Alberta. The infrastructure to bring this out is still being built out. Arc has a lot of natural gas liquids. He expects natural gas prices to rise going into the Fall.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 1, 2018

Do not have a final investment decision on the LNG plant project yet. Should have a decision on this project sometime this year. Most are thinking the big LNG plant will get built. Most western Canadian natural gas stocks are very cheap. Western Canada is awash in natural gas and North America does not need it. If LNG gets exported globally, will see an enormous boom. Arc is a low cost, high quality operator in this area and may be some merit to own a small position in hope the plant gets built. There is an element of speculation.

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Do not have a final investment decision on the LNG plant project yet. Should have a decision on this project sometime this year. Most are thinking the big LNG plant will get built. Most western Canadian natural gas stocks are very cheap. Western Canada is awash in natural gas and North America does not need it. If LNG gets exported globally, will see an enormous boom. Arc is a low cost, high quality operator in this area and may be some merit to own a small position in hope the plant gets built. There is an element of speculation.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 20, 2018

Should get LNG positive approval next Friday. All the signs are there. But will service stocks go up as well?

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Should get LNG positive approval next Friday. All the signs are there. But will service stocks go up as well?

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 17, 2018

His model price is $13.66, so he seeks the stock as almost 6% overvalued. They pay out as much as analysts expect them to earn. There is better value in American stocks.

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His model price is $13.66, so he seeks the stock as almost 6% overvalued. They pay out as much as analysts expect them to earn. There is better value in American stocks.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 16, 2018

It's one of the better-financed oil companies and a strong balance sheet. It has long-life properties to develop. Pays over 4% yield. (Analysts' price target: $18.03)

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It's one of the better-financed oil companies and a strong balance sheet. It has long-life properties to develop. Pays over 4% yield. (Analysts' price target: $18.03)

WATCH
WATCH
July 9, 2018

It is attempting to break its downtrend and to base. You want to see it break $15. If it does that and stays for a couple of days you could step in.

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It is attempting to break its downtrend and to base. You want to see it break $15. If it does that and stays for a couple of days you could step in.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 4, 2018

(A Top Pick July 25/17 Down 19%). It is a BC based natural gas producer that has been disappointing due to the lack of takeaway capacity. There is a possible BC LNG facility being talked for the market and demand is growing in North America for natural gas. It is not the time to sell. He likes the yield.

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(A Top Pick July 25/17 Down 19%). It is a BC based natural gas producer that has been disappointing due to the lack of takeaway capacity. There is a possible BC LNG facility being talked for the market and demand is growing in North America for natural gas. It is not the time to sell. He likes the yield.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 3, 2018

Over 60% of their revenues are oil based and represents over 75% of their revenues. There is upside if there is a positive FID for the BC LNG project by Shell. He thinks it has one of the best management teams. Yield 4.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $17.86)

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Over 60% of their revenues are oil based and represents over 75% of their revenues. There is upside if there is a positive FID for the BC LNG project by Shell. He thinks it has one of the best management teams. Yield 4.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $17.86)

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 26, 2018

Projected earnings for 2019 are lower than 2018. His model price is 4% lower than the current price. The yield is barely supported by earnings. There is better value elsewhere and the stock is out of favour.

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Projected earnings for 2019 are lower than 2018. His model price is 4% lower than the current price. The yield is barely supported by earnings. There is better value elsewhere and the stock is out of favour.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 25, 2018

He expects Shell to go positive on their investment decision in LNG on the West Coast. That will cause a re-rating on gas stocks. (Analysts’ target: $17.97).

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He expects Shell to go positive on their investment decision in LNG on the West Coast. That will cause a re-rating on gas stocks. (Analysts’ target: $17.97).

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 17, 2018

Very well respected, they drill some of the most economical wells in the country, it trades at a premium because people have been hiding in this stock. Other companies have more potential to rise because they were more beaten down.

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Very well respected, they drill some of the most economical wells in the country, it trades at a premium because people have been hiding in this stock. Other companies have more potential to rise because they were more beaten down.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 5, 2018

It is a higher quality producer in the top 15%. A good payout ratio. It is a high quality energy pick. They are not subject to transportation problems. (Analysts’ target: $18.01).

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It is a higher quality producer in the top 15%. A good payout ratio. It is a high quality energy pick. They are not subject to transportation problems. (Analysts’ target: $18.01).

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 19, 2018

It has a very established down trend. He would need to know the composition of the balance sheet. He thinks you should leave it alone as he does not see a technical bottom forming yet.

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It has a very established down trend. He would need to know the composition of the balance sheet. He thinks you should leave it alone as he does not see a technical bottom forming yet.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 16, 2018

The price is coming close to book value of $10.37. The balance sheet is in good shape and he likes management. Hold off until it falls closer to book value. Yield 4.5%.

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The price is coming close to book value of $10.37. The balance sheet is in good shape and he likes management. Hold off until it falls closer to book value. Yield 4.5%.

BUY
BUY
February 22, 2018

[Is the true value of the natural gas deposits included in their book value? Also, the outstanding shares keep rising, so wouldn't that dilute current shareholders?]The value of the properties they own are included in book value. It's not a market value but an historical cost value. Correct, it becomes dilutive, when there are more shares outstanding the book value per share declines. It becomes dilutive if they back stock at a premium. He likes Arc and has made it a top pick in the past. It's a low-cost gas producer that had a good Q4. A secure dividend and well-run. 4.7% yield

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 22, 2018

[Is the true value of the natural gas deposits included in their book value? Also, the outstanding shares keep rising, so wouldn't that dilute current shareholders?]The value of the properties they own are included in book value. It's not a market value but an historical cost value. Correct, it becomes dilutive, when there are more shares outstanding the book value per share declines. It becomes dilutive if they back stock at a premium. He likes Arc and has made it a top pick in the past. It's a low-cost gas producer that had a good Q4. A secure dividend and well-run. 4.7% yield

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 16, 2018

(A Top Pick Feb. 10/17 Down 36%) There has been a lot of pain in this space and he feels it has been punished more than it should. Natural gas prices have taken a severe hit and there has been problems getting gas to market. However, 26% of their revenues come from natural gas liquids and only 5% of their production is in Alberta. They have been able to replace 300% of their reserves. A well-run company, but in a tough sector. His advice is to hold and he feels the dividend is safe. Yield 4.7%.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 16, 2018

(A Top Pick Feb. 10/17 Down 36%) There has been a lot of pain in this space and he feels it has been punished more than it should. Natural gas prices have taken a severe hit and there has been problems getting gas to market. However, 26% of their revenues come from natural gas liquids and only 5% of their production is in Alberta. They have been able to replace 300% of their reserves. A well-run company, but in a tough sector. His advice is to hold and he feels the dividend is safe. Yield 4.7%.

WATCH
WATCH
February 12, 2018

They continue to grow their production. 29% liquids. The balance sheet is in good shape.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 12, 2018

They continue to grow their production. 29% liquids. The balance sheet is in good shape.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 9, 2018

Effectively a liquid producer in drag. It is a name with a management team well regarded. It doesn’t have the beta that he wants. Very good well productivity. Very good quality in their acreage. Probably not one bad thing you can say about the company.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 9, 2018

Effectively a liquid producer in drag. It is a name with a management team well regarded. It doesn’t have the beta that he wants. Very good well productivity. Very good quality in their acreage. Probably not one bad thing you can say about the company.

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