Arc Resources Ltd

ARX-T

TSE:ARX

6.42
0.19 (3.05%)
ARC was founded in 1996 as a royalty trust with the acquisition of 21 properties from Mobil Oil Canada. The acquisition was funded by an initial IPO of $180 million on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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Analysis and Opinions about ARX-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 7, 2019
It's in no-man's land now. Avoid new lows like this. This could fall to $5.
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It's in no-man's land now. Avoid new lows like this. This could fall to $5.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 24, 2019
Their debt is very low and acceptable and have lots of cash. Book value is over $10 per share. A high yield and good company in the right fairway. They are liquids rich. He thinks this is a very cheap stock, but there are so many others that you can own. There could be another 5-10% downside for weakness. Yield 7.5%.
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Their debt is very low and acceptable and have lots of cash. Book value is over $10 per share. A high yield and good company in the right fairway. They are liquids rich. He thinks this is a very cheap stock, but there are so many others that you can own. There could be another 5-10% downside for weakness. Yield 7.5%.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 23, 2019
It is getting kicked out of the MSCI world index tomorrow and going into the small cap index. It got beaten up and so he is recommending it for an energy stock. (Analysts’ price target is $13.23)
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It is getting kicked out of the MSCI world index tomorrow and going into the small cap index. It got beaten up and so he is recommending it for an energy stock. (Analysts’ price target is $13.23)
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 10, 2019
(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Down 42%) He got stopped out. Crude prices have not rallied, so the stock has not improved. Energy is great value at the moment, but this would not be his first entry back into the space.
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(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Down 42%) He got stopped out. Crude prices have not rallied, so the stock has not improved. Energy is great value at the moment, but this would not be his first entry back into the space.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 30, 2019
The disparity in oil stocks between fundamentals and share prices has never been wider, but ARX falls into a nice middle ground. It's been hit the last few days on weak gas prices, but two-thirds of cash flows are supported by oil, but they also have long-term exposure to LNG Canada and LPG export. Plus, they're marketing their products to the States. Well-run and you get paid a 7% dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $13.53)
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The disparity in oil stocks between fundamentals and share prices has never been wider, but ARX falls into a nice middle ground. It's been hit the last few days on weak gas prices, but two-thirds of cash flows are supported by oil, but they also have long-term exposure to LNG Canada and LPG export. Plus, they're marketing their products to the States. Well-run and you get paid a 7% dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $13.53)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 30, 2019
Still on its long downtrend.
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Still on its long downtrend.
HOLD
HOLD
April 26, 2019
It is an ultra-high level quality company that has been impacted by its exposure to natural gas production. It only trades at 3-4 times cash flow, when it used to trade at 8 times. The lack of trading liquidity in the space is holding back valuations. The only knock is that they are outspending cash flow this year. A short term issue. A solid name.
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It is an ultra-high level quality company that has been impacted by its exposure to natural gas production. It only trades at 3-4 times cash flow, when it used to trade at 8 times. The lack of trading liquidity in the space is holding back valuations. The only knock is that they are outspending cash flow this year. A short term issue. A solid name.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 18, 2019
Stock is cheap here. Pays a monthly dividend of almost 7%. Book value is $10.39. All natural gas stocks have been beat up. Paid down debt, and equity's gone up. Decent balance sheet. Sitting in the fairway that will benefit from LNG exports 3-4 years from now. Not on his list, but sees the merits of owning it.
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Stock is cheap here. Pays a monthly dividend of almost 7%. Book value is $10.39. All natural gas stocks have been beat up. Paid down debt, and equity's gone up. Decent balance sheet. Sitting in the fairway that will benefit from LNG exports 3-4 years from now. Not on his list, but sees the merits of owning it.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 17, 2019
He used to own it. A great company, but it produces natural gas in Northern BC. The market fundamentals are awful there. He sold out at $14 and he is glad to not own it.
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He used to own it. A great company, but it produces natural gas in Northern BC. The market fundamentals are awful there. He sold out at $14 and he is glad to not own it.
BUY
BUY
April 11, 2019
He sold at the end of the year. This has historically been one of the best run companies. They are caught up in the lack of ability to get gas out of the country. You are getting paid to wait. Consider adding to it here. When these stocks go up, they go up a lot.
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He sold at the end of the year. This has historically been one of the best run companies. They are caught up in the lack of ability to get gas out of the country. You are getting paid to wait. Consider adding to it here. When these stocks go up, they go up a lot.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
April 3, 2019
Pays a good dividend of 6.7%. He likes it now to play the energy sector. It's come down a lot over time but is now in a seasonal period. Lighten up around June.
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Pays a good dividend of 6.7%. He likes it now to play the energy sector. It's come down a lot over time but is now in a seasonal period. Lighten up around June.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 2, 2019
One of the better operators in Alberta. But as underlying price drops, constant pressure on the company. At these levels, as long as you're at 100% payout ratio, you're probably fine. But if oil price dips, they'll have to reduce capex or dividends, and that's not growth. He's not looking at these levels.
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One of the better operators in Alberta. But as underlying price drops, constant pressure on the company. At these levels, as long as you're at 100% payout ratio, you're probably fine. But if oil price dips, they'll have to reduce capex or dividends, and that's not growth. He's not looking at these levels.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 20, 2019
26% of production is in liquids. Strong balance sheet in a depressed industry. PAys a 6.34% dividend (Analysts’ price target is $13.36)
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26% of production is in liquids. Strong balance sheet in a depressed industry. PAys a 6.34% dividend (Analysts’ price target is $13.36)
HOLD
HOLD
February 27, 2019
Conservative management team. They have re-geared their business around the Montney region. Cash flow today is not a great reflection of what the future will be, he thinks. The dividend has held around 5-6% and he plans to hold for the long term. Yield 5.8%
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 27, 2019
Conservative management team. They have re-geared their business around the Montney region. Cash flow today is not a great reflection of what the future will be, he thinks. The dividend has held around 5-6% and he plans to hold for the long term. Yield 5.8%
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
January 24, 2019
The stock has been devastated. Debt is not a concern. They are producing well. It is a high quality name.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 24, 2019
The stock has been devastated. Debt is not a concern. They are producing well. It is a high quality name.
HOLD
HOLD
January 18, 2019
Is the dividend safe? He owned it a while ago. It is a really good company with good management and a pristine balance sheet. Even still the stock has not done well, due to the low natural gas prices and no sign of improvement. He is cautious on the dividend and thinks it depends on the natural gas price going forward. He would continue to hold it.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 18, 2019
Is the dividend safe? He owned it a while ago. It is a really good company with good management and a pristine balance sheet. Even still the stock has not done well, due to the low natural gas prices and no sign of improvement. He is cautious on the dividend and thinks it depends on the natural gas price going forward. He would continue to hold it.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
January 18, 2019
A great company, but the oil price is hurting them. 143% 2020 payout ratio, so the dividend is not safe. 6.5x earnings, cheaper than the past 5 years, but that's high compared to their peers. That said, it's a quality name. You can own this if you expect oil prices to rise.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 18, 2019
A great company, but the oil price is hurting them. 143% 2020 payout ratio, so the dividend is not safe. 6.5x earnings, cheaper than the past 5 years, but that's high compared to their peers. That said, it's a quality name. You can own this if you expect oil prices to rise.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 15, 2019
(A Top Pick Jan 23/18, Down 26%) Another disappointment, but he'd still recommend it. Clean balance sheet, top-tier assets. Great future. Dividend's not in jeopardy. Sold assets to boost balance sheet possibly to buy assets coming up for sale.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 15, 2019
(A Top Pick Jan 23/18, Down 26%) Another disappointment, but he'd still recommend it. Clean balance sheet, top-tier assets. Great future. Dividend's not in jeopardy. Sold assets to boost balance sheet possibly to buy assets coming up for sale.
BUY
BUY
January 11, 2019
Gas stock, not pure oil. Really likes this. It's fallen a bit due to warm weather, so it will bounce up when it turns cold which is likely this winter.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 11, 2019
Gas stock, not pure oil. Really likes this. It's fallen a bit due to warm weather, so it will bounce up when it turns cold which is likely this winter.
HOLD
HOLD
December 14, 2018
There is no distinguishing the have and have-not companies. You can now buy the best quality companies at the same discounts to their peers. Their next big production project comes on later in 2019. Management is great. We have probably reached the maximum level of capitulation.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 14, 2018
There is no distinguishing the have and have-not companies. You can now buy the best quality companies at the same discounts to their peers. Their next big production project comes on later in 2019. Management is great. We have probably reached the maximum level of capitulation.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 4, 2018
Sold it 18 months ago, because there weren't enough pipelines to take away natural gas in western Canada, just like the oil problem. Also, nat. gas production in U.S. can be shipped closer to U.S. destinations instead of shipping it from western Canada. There's no easy solution to this. We won't get an L&G terminal in BC in 2023, though it's a glimmer of hope.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 4, 2018
Sold it 18 months ago, because there weren't enough pipelines to take away natural gas in western Canada, just like the oil problem. Also, nat. gas production in U.S. can be shipped closer to U.S. destinations instead of shipping it from western Canada. There's no easy solution to this. We won't get an L&G terminal in BC in 2023, though it's a glimmer of hope.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
November 21, 2018
Expensive vs. peers, but excellent assets and an efficient operator. He sees 10% growth. He likes it. Buy only if oil hits $60-70.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 21, 2018
Expensive vs. peers, but excellent assets and an efficient operator. He sees 10% growth. He likes it. Buy only if oil hits $60-70.
WAIT
WAIT
November 14, 2018
This is a long term, well run, mostly gas run company. When LNG Canada project production starts, it may not specifically benefit Arc, but it will take some of the natgas out of the current pipeline infrastructure, which would benefit Arc. It is on her watch list. She thinks they will be buying Arc in the future.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 14, 2018
This is a long term, well run, mostly gas run company. When LNG Canada project production starts, it may not specifically benefit Arc, but it will take some of the natgas out of the current pipeline infrastructure, which would benefit Arc. It is on her watch list. She thinks they will be buying Arc in the future.
SELL
SELL
November 8, 2018
He sold in the last couple of weeks. They are mostly gas and some liquids. The price they are getting has been moving up but it will take time for the infrastructure to get in place for them to get a decent price. Long term LNG projects will be good for them.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 8, 2018
He sold in the last couple of weeks. They are mostly gas and some liquids. The price they are getting has been moving up but it will take time for the infrastructure to get in place for them to get a decent price. Long term LNG projects will be good for them.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 11, 2018

ALA-T vs. ARX-T. ALA-T is going through a reorganization. It complicates his model. The trailing PE is 19 times and it is cash flow positive. The yield is very high at 10.2% with payout at 60%. The ROE is okay at 6%. He would wait until the financing of the spin out is complete and the market should be more comfortable. He does not follow ARX-T.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 11, 2018

ALA-T vs. ARX-T. ALA-T is going through a reorganization. It complicates his model. The trailing PE is 19 times and it is cash flow positive. The yield is very high at 10.2% with payout at 60%. The ROE is okay at 6%. He would wait until the financing of the spin out is complete and the market should be more comfortable. He does not follow ARX-T.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 5, 2018

A well respected natural gas producer that had been trading too expensively. It now trades at a more reasonable 6-7 times cash flow. It remains profitable due to its liquids position. West coast LNG will benefit this stock. Yield 4.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $18.25)

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A well respected natural gas producer that had been trading too expensively. It now trades at a more reasonable 6-7 times cash flow. It remains profitable due to its liquids position. West coast LNG will benefit this stock. Yield 4.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $18.25)

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 28, 2018

Projecting 11% production growth till 2020. Balance sheet pretty good. Not a lot of cashflow per share growth. Pricier than its peers. An 111% payout ratio. If fund flows come to Canada, they’ll come to this name. Will benefit from LNG. Real key is whether oil will stay at $73. If yes, you can buy a lot of energy names, and ARC is one of them.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 28, 2018

Projecting 11% production growth till 2020. Balance sheet pretty good. Not a lot of cashflow per share growth. Pricier than its peers. An 111% payout ratio. If fund flows come to Canada, they’ll come to this name. Will benefit from LNG. Real key is whether oil will stay at $73. If yes, you can buy a lot of energy names, and ARC is one of them.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 26, 2018

He continues to own this as it is primarily natural gas focused and has a great land and reserve base. He was buying it around $12.80.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 26, 2018

He continues to own this as it is primarily natural gas focused and has a great land and reserve base. He was buying it around $12.80.

HOLD
HOLD
September 14, 2018

He has strong reason to believe a go decision will be made for an LNG project – likely in late-October. There are on the ground plans in Kitimat for festivities. ARX-T has good liquids exposure as well. He would prefer Tourmaline.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 14, 2018

He has strong reason to believe a go decision will be made for an LNG project – likely in late-October. There are on the ground plans in Kitimat for festivities. ARX-T has good liquids exposure as well. He would prefer Tourmaline.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 14, 2018

(A Top Pick August 18, 2017. Down 5%). The company executes excellently. This is primarily a gas company. Gas prices in Canada are extremely depressed because the infrastructure for gas delivery was designed to take southern Alberta gas to the US and Eastern Canada, but all the new discoveries have been made in Northern BC and Northern Alberta. The infrastructure to bring this out is still being built out. Arc has a lot of natural gas liquids. He expects natural gas prices to rise going into the Fall.

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(A Top Pick August 18, 2017. Down 5%). The company executes excellently. This is primarily a gas company. Gas prices in Canada are extremely depressed because the infrastructure for gas delivery was designed to take southern Alberta gas to the US and Eastern Canada, but all the new discoveries have been made in Northern BC and Northern Alberta. The infrastructure to bring this out is still being built out. Arc has a lot of natural gas liquids. He expects natural gas prices to rise going into the Fall.

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