Arc Resources Ltd

ARX-T

TSE:ARX

6.42
0.19 (3.05%)
ARC was founded in 1996 as a royalty trust with the acquisition of 21 properties from Mobil Oil Canada. The acquisition was funded by an initial IPO of $180 million on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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Analysis and Opinions about ARX-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
November 15, 2019
He thinks there is still good upside to come. The sector has put all the good companies in the same camp as the poor performers and dragged all down to the same reduced valuations. Arc is yielding 9.1% and trades at a 25% discount to their reserve valuation. Out to 2021 their spending drops to create a 10% free cash flow yield after paying the dividend. He still sees this as an opportunity.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 15, 2019
He thinks there is still good upside to come. The sector has put all the good companies in the same camp as the poor performers and dragged all down to the same reduced valuations. Arc is yielding 9.1% and trades at a 25% discount to their reserve valuation. Out to 2021 their spending drops to create a 10% free cash flow yield after paying the dividend. He still sees this as an opportunity.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
November 8, 2019
He used to own this. It is mostly a BC natural gas producer. Natural gas prices have been depressed and a lack of northern BC pipeline access has been shown in the stock price. He likes the management team, but the fundamentals are still a concern. Lately natural gas prices have been improving, but he wants to hold it long term. Maybe its a better short term trade. When LNG gets going on the west coast it will benefit.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 8, 2019
He used to own this. It is mostly a BC natural gas producer. Natural gas prices have been depressed and a lack of northern BC pipeline access has been shown in the stock price. He likes the management team, but the fundamentals are still a concern. Lately natural gas prices have been improving, but he wants to hold it long term. Maybe its a better short term trade. When LNG gets going on the west coast it will benefit.
BUY
BUY
October 28, 2019
He bought it in the last couple of months. The western Canadian energy space has been decimated and no one wants to own you if you are not in the index. They had a bit of a headwind from nat gas pricing in western Canada. ARX-T is trading where it was in the last '90s. The dividend is sustainable at this level. If you can close your eyes, over time you will be rewarded handsomely. It is close to 10% so you get paid to wait. Great assets and a great management team with a proven ability to develop those assets over a period of time. It is the most hated sector in Canada and can be bought at 30 year lows.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 28, 2019
He bought it in the last couple of months. The western Canadian energy space has been decimated and no one wants to own you if you are not in the index. They had a bit of a headwind from nat gas pricing in western Canada. ARX-T is trading where it was in the last '90s. The dividend is sustainable at this level. If you can close your eyes, over time you will be rewarded handsomely. It is close to 10% so you get paid to wait. Great assets and a great management team with a proven ability to develop those assets over a period of time. It is the most hated sector in Canada and can be bought at 30 year lows.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 22, 2019

MFC vs. Arc Arc is riskier while MFC is steadier. MFC is at an excellent price now, close to book value and offers a 12% ROE. Best in this sector with great Asian growth potential. They have a long way to sort out problems with long-term care in the U.S. Arc is good if you want more torque in your portfolio.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 22, 2019

MFC vs. Arc Arc is riskier while MFC is steadier. MFC is at an excellent price now, close to book value and offers a 12% ROE. Best in this sector with great Asian growth potential. They have a long way to sort out problems with long-term care in the U.S. Arc is good if you want more torque in your portfolio.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 21, 2019
Has a yield of 10.9% yield which seems to be sustainable. Earnings revisions have been revised down.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 21, 2019
Has a yield of 10.9% yield which seems to be sustainable. Earnings revisions have been revised down.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 11, 2019

Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 11, 2019

Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.

BUY
BUY
October 11, 2019

Good energy dividend payers? For a five year time period, there are a few 9% dividend payers which are safe, he thinks. He would suggest ARX-T (11% yield), WCP-T, and TOG-T (each yielding around 9%). He thinks the dividends are safe to $50 WTI. These stocks are just so undervalued and have enormous upside if investment comes back.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 11, 2019

Good energy dividend payers? For a five year time period, there are a few 9% dividend payers which are safe, he thinks. He would suggest ARX-T (11% yield), WCP-T, and TOG-T (each yielding around 9%). He thinks the dividends are safe to $50 WTI. These stocks are just so undervalued and have enormous upside if investment comes back.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 11, 2019
It was the gold standard in the market with a rockstar balance sheet and high yield down to $50 WTI. Over 60% of their revenue comes from liquids. The first time he has owned it as it has always been too expensive as it traded at premium mulitples -- a bargain today. Yield 10.95% (Analysts’ price target is $10.00)
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 11, 2019
It was the gold standard in the market with a rockstar balance sheet and high yield down to $50 WTI. Over 60% of their revenue comes from liquids. The first time he has owned it as it has always been too expensive as it traded at premium mulitples -- a bargain today. Yield 10.95% (Analysts’ price target is $10.00)
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 10, 2019
They have a strong balance sheet. It is trading at half of its book value. Take advantage of tax loss selling season.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 10, 2019
They have a strong balance sheet. It is trading at half of its book value. Take advantage of tax loss selling season.
SELL
SELL
October 10, 2019
Afflicted by the same thing afflicting all the other nat gas producers. They're at the end of the pipe. Selling at a deep discount. Not making money, but continuing to spend. Dividend is at risk. Producers are going to be in the penalty box until the LNG plant gets built off the west coast. Could fall further.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 10, 2019
Afflicted by the same thing afflicting all the other nat gas producers. They're at the end of the pipe. Selling at a deep discount. Not making money, but continuing to spend. Dividend is at risk. Producers are going to be in the penalty box until the LNG plant gets built off the west coast. Could fall further.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 16, 2019

The debt is 21%, but down from last December. He would recommend buying it on weakness. They have the gas for LNG approved projects in Canada. We could see takeovers in the next two to three years.

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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 16, 2019

The debt is 21%, but down from last December. He would recommend buying it on weakness. They have the gas for LNG approved projects in Canada. We could see takeovers in the next two to three years.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 13, 2019
(A Top Pick Oct 05/18, Down 50%) Natural gas and liquids cash flows have been challenged. He loves the management team here. He was stopped out in the fall. Now, the company is incredibly cheap and natural gas prices are improving. He would buy this again.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 13, 2019
(A Top Pick Oct 05/18, Down 50%) Natural gas and liquids cash flows have been challenged. He loves the management team here. He was stopped out in the fall. Now, the company is incredibly cheap and natural gas prices are improving. He would buy this again.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 13, 2019
At this point in time, this is simply the highest free cash flow company in the space.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 13, 2019
At this point in time, this is simply the highest free cash flow company in the space.
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
It has been trending down. They are one of the better managed companies. They had good results last quarter, but no one seems to care. He highly recommends it at these levels. If the energy market turns at all, they will do quite well. 9.6% yield. (Analysts’ price target is $11.00)
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 9, 2019
It has been trending down. They are one of the better managed companies. They had good results last quarter, but no one seems to care. He highly recommends it at these levels. If the energy market turns at all, they will do quite well. 9.6% yield. (Analysts’ price target is $11.00)
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
September 3, 2019
In a recession? Current prices are attractive, and recession fears are overdone. You can buy a little here, but don't back up the truck.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 3, 2019
In a recession? Current prices are attractive, and recession fears are overdone. You can buy a little here, but don't back up the truck.
BUY
BUY
September 3, 2019
He owned it a few years ago, then got back into it recently. Great managers and asset base in Alberta. They pulled back in their capex recently to be prudent in a tough oil market. The yield pays nearly 10% and should be sustainable based on a good cash flow, levels we haven't seen in 20 years. But oil stocks can still head lower: caveat.
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Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
September 3, 2019
He owned it a few years ago, then got back into it recently. Great managers and asset base in Alberta. They pulled back in their capex recently to be prudent in a tough oil market. The yield pays nearly 10% and should be sustainable based on a good cash flow, levels we haven't seen in 20 years. But oil stocks can still head lower: caveat.
BUY
BUY
August 30, 2019
The poster child for the lack of interest in oil mid-caps. It has a strong balance sheet and good managers, but now pays a 10.8% yield and trading at a 10% premium to their liquidation value. That's staggering. A good company that's been lambasted.
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The poster child for the lack of interest in oil mid-caps. It has a strong balance sheet and good managers, but now pays a 10.8% yield and trading at a 10% premium to their liquidation value. That's staggering. A good company that's been lambasted.
BUY
BUY
August 26, 2019

Their balance sheet is one of the stronger ones out there. They have said they are supportive of their 11% dividend. He thinks it is secure. They are on the fairway of LNG.

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Their balance sheet is one of the stronger ones out there. They have said they are supportive of their 11% dividend. He thinks it is secure. They are on the fairway of LNG.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 21, 2019

(A Top Pick Jun 25/18, Down 50%) Was more bullish on energy then. LNG permits and approvals were happening, but the funds have not been flowing into energy. Should probably look into integrated major like Suncor right now. Need to see LNG facilities operating before the stock can take off. Good dividend with low cost and low debt. Energy has been a tough sector.

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(A Top Pick Jun 25/18, Down 50%) Was more bullish on energy then. LNG permits and approvals were happening, but the funds have not been flowing into energy. Should probably look into integrated major like Suncor right now. Need to see LNG facilities operating before the stock can take off. Good dividend with low cost and low debt. Energy has been a tough sector.

HOLD
HOLD
August 7, 2019

Dividend is approaching 14%. Too good to be true? No. He used to own this. Trades at 0.6x book value, an all-time low. Dividend is safe. LNG will get built on the west coast, so be patient and get paid to wait.

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Dividend is approaching 14%. Too good to be true? No. He used to own this. Trades at 0.6x book value, an all-time low. Dividend is safe. LNG will get built on the west coast, so be patient and get paid to wait.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 26, 2019
They barely cover their dividend, near 100% payout ratio. They have a good balance sheet. It's a cheap energy stock, but there are many these stocks. ARX has no price momentum--that's their problem. He's neutral on it.
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They barely cover their dividend, near 100% payout ratio. They have a good balance sheet. It's a cheap energy stock, but there are many these stocks. ARX has no price momentum--that's their problem. He's neutral on it.
BUY
BUY
July 25, 2019
Strong balance sheet. Very cheap. No problem with the dividend. But nat gas is in the doghouse right now. A quality name. Wants to do some homework on it, and may buy. Massive upside here. Yield is 9.6%.
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Strong balance sheet. Very cheap. No problem with the dividend. But nat gas is in the doghouse right now. A quality name. Wants to do some homework on it, and may buy. Massive upside here. Yield is 9.6%.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 24, 2019
(A Top Pick Jul 16/18, Down 52%) It really should not be down. He does not think the dividend is under threat as the balance sheet is strong. It has light crude exposure. He would look to buy more here. He thinks they should buy back their stock. Yield 9.4%
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(A Top Pick Jul 16/18, Down 52%) It really should not be down. He does not think the dividend is under threat as the balance sheet is strong. It has light crude exposure. He would look to buy more here. He thinks they should buy back their stock. Yield 9.4%
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 19, 2019
The CEO believes their 9.6% yield is sustainable. They will cut capex and defer growth to protect the balance sheet. So, the yield is safe, but don't expect growth.
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The CEO believes their 9.6% yield is sustainable. They will cut capex and defer growth to protect the balance sheet. So, the yield is safe, but don't expect growth.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 16, 2019
(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Down 49%) The company made the same amount of money in Q1 as last year. He is perplexed by the market sentiment. The dividend is over 9% and he thinks they will not cut it at current oil and gas prices. Oil accounts for 70% of their cash flow. A bargain and he continues to buy. Yield 9.2%
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(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Down 49%) The company made the same amount of money in Q1 as last year. He is perplexed by the market sentiment. The dividend is over 9% and he thinks they will not cut it at current oil and gas prices. Oil accounts for 70% of their cash flow. A bargain and he continues to buy. Yield 9.2%
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 16, 2019
He does not think the dividend will be cut, unless commodity values drop sharply or they decide to use capital to buy back shares. They have a huge undeveloped land holding position. The management team is building the company for the next decade. He has faith in them. Yield 9.23%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.37)
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He does not think the dividend will be cut, unless commodity values drop sharply or they decide to use capital to buy back shares. They have a huge undeveloped land holding position. The management team is building the company for the next decade. He has faith in them. Yield 9.23%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.37)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 16, 2019
Its trend channel is heading south, not north. If it stops making lower lows and lower highs, it may start basing, which would be good. It's not going sideways yet, but keeps going down.
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Its trend channel is heading south, not north. If it stops making lower lows and lower highs, it may start basing, which would be good. It's not going sideways yet, but keeps going down.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 9, 2019
A weak stock and if the market tumbles, the dividend will get cut.
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A weak stock and if the market tumbles, the dividend will get cut.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 3, 2019
A really good company with great properties. But it doesn't matter as their base is natural gas, where prices are not going any where. It may look cheap as a stock, but it is not changing anytime soon.
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A really good company with great properties. But it doesn't matter as their base is natural gas, where prices are not going any where. It may look cheap as a stock, but it is not changing anytime soon.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 14, 2019
Dividend can get cut at any time. They'll do it to protect the balance sheet at any cost, and the stock may go up. Methodical execution. As long as there's a conventional oil and gas business, ARC will be there.
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Dividend can get cut at any time. They'll do it to protect the balance sheet at any cost, and the stock may go up. Methodical execution. As long as there's a conventional oil and gas business, ARC will be there.
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