Arc Resources Ltd

ARX-T

TSE:ARX

4.87
0.20 (4.28%)
ARC was founded in 1996 as a royalty trust with the acquisition of 21 properties from Mobil Oil Canada. The acquisition was funded by an initial IPO of $180 million on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
More at Wikipedia

Analysis and Opinions about ARX-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
HOLD
HOLD
June 29, 2020
It has been one of his top picks in the past. It is an extremely well managed company. It would not bother him too much to see the dividend cut in this environment.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
It has been one of his top picks in the past. It is an extremely well managed company. It would not bother him too much to see the dividend cut in this environment.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Average down? He has owned it a couple times in the past. He is not bullish on Canadian natural gas, so does not own it now. They are 60% in natural gas and there are summer pricing risk on the commodity. It will take time for a new COO to get set. At $50 oil it is 4 times cash flow -- he thinks there are even more enticing opportunities out there. He would not average down.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Average down? He has owned it a couple times in the past. He is not bullish on Canadian natural gas, so does not own it now. They are 60% in natural gas and there are summer pricing risk on the commodity. It will take time for a new COO to get set. At $50 oil it is 4 times cash flow -- he thinks there are even more enticing opportunities out there. He would not average down.
BUY
BUY
June 12, 2020
He thinks many companies in the energy space will be "no goes". Their balance sheet is in a much better position now -- debt-to-cash flow has improved to 1.3 times for 2021. Their payout ratio is 72% of 2021 cash flows. A reasonable investment if you think natural gas prices will remain here. One of the Canadian energy stocks to buy.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
He thinks many companies in the energy space will be "no goes". Their balance sheet is in a much better position now -- debt-to-cash flow has improved to 1.3 times for 2021. Their payout ratio is 72% of 2021 cash flows. A reasonable investment if you think natural gas prices will remain here. One of the Canadian energy stocks to buy.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 5, 2020
(A Top Pick Jul 15/19, Down 4%) It has been one of the best energy sector performers. The natural gas focus is important. He thinks we are going through a global energy transition, which includes natural gas and Western Canada plays a big role. They are pursuing a real ESG program, particularly environmental, focus. This is one of three energy stocks he owns.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
(A Top Pick Jul 15/19, Down 4%) It has been one of the best energy sector performers. The natural gas focus is important. He thinks we are going through a global energy transition, which includes natural gas and Western Canada plays a big role. They are pursuing a real ESG program, particularly environmental, focus. This is one of three energy stocks he owns.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 15, 2020

ARX vs VET ARX holds super high quality liquids assets in the Montney formation. VET has a more diversified production slate including Australia and the Netherlands as well as Canada. The US has shut in 1.4 million barrels a day, this has reduced associated natural gas production. This will tighten the natural gas markets making it much more bullish. This is helpful for ARX, more so. He has not been a huge supporter of the VET management team and is less bullish on European natural gas markets (where VET is more active). ARX also provides a better dividend stream.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

ARX vs VET ARX holds super high quality liquids assets in the Montney formation. VET has a more diversified production slate including Australia and the Netherlands as well as Canada. The US has shut in 1.4 million barrels a day, this has reduced associated natural gas production. This will tighten the natural gas markets making it much more bullish. This is helpful for ARX, more so. He has not been a huge supporter of the VET management team and is less bullish on European natural gas markets (where VET is more active). ARX also provides a better dividend stream.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 6, 2020
(A Top Pick Apr 30/19, Down 43%) It has held up rather well compared to other energy companies. Natural gas demand is much more regional and more related to weather. This is one of the best managed and has the best assets. They can grow organically without acquiring any land positions. They cut their dividend early in the crisis to preserve their balance sheet. He was troubled with management changes in February. He is holding position for clients during this downturn.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
(A Top Pick Apr 30/19, Down 43%) It has held up rather well compared to other energy companies. Natural gas demand is much more regional and more related to weather. This is one of the best managed and has the best assets. They can grow organically without acquiring any land positions. They cut their dividend early in the crisis to preserve their balance sheet. He was troubled with management changes in February. He is holding position for clients during this downturn.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 3, 2020

Natrual gas prices? The 2021 strip price for AECO is over $2. That will work for strong balance sheet producers like TOU, NVA (60% natural gas), and ARX.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Natrual gas prices? The 2021 strip price for AECO is over $2. That will work for strong balance sheet producers like TOU, NVA (60% natural gas), and ARX.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 24, 2020
It's one of the best-managed Canadian oil companies. The benefit from LNG takeaway on the west coast. They cut their dividend by 60%. It's a good name with reasonable debt and fine managers. True, there are concerns about the CFO and CEO retiring, but they have bench strength. Also, their assets are strong. Buy under $2.80 for the long term.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
It's one of the best-managed Canadian oil companies. The benefit from LNG takeaway on the west coast. They cut their dividend by 60%. It's a good name with reasonable debt and fine managers. True, there are concerns about the CFO and CEO retiring, but they have bench strength. Also, their assets are strong. Buy under $2.80 for the long term.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 17, 2020

(A Top Pick Mar 20/19, Down 67%) This one hurts. It's higher risk/reward vs. Suncor, but they are lowering their dividend and capital program. He'd rather they completely remove the dividend.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(A Top Pick Mar 20/19, Down 67%) This one hurts. It's higher risk/reward vs. Suncor, but they are lowering their dividend and capital program. He'd rather they completely remove the dividend.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 11, 2020

(A Top Pick May 23/19, Down 47%) This has great assets and a great management team. They have more natural gas exposure. He has scaled out of some of his position and is not recommending to add to a position here.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(A Top Pick May 23/19, Down 47%) This has great assets and a great management team. They have more natural gas exposure. He has scaled out of some of his position and is not recommending to add to a position here.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 10, 2020

He wouldn't buy this. He bought it three years ago, thinking it was the top natural gas producer, but nat gas didn't enjoy great demand. It will need that LNG terminal to be built on the west coast. This market will be oversupplied for 4-5 years. Arc is best of breed, though.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

He wouldn't buy this. He bought it three years ago, thinking it was the top natural gas producer, but nat gas didn't enjoy great demand. It will need that LNG terminal to be built on the west coast. This market will be oversupplied for 4-5 years. Arc is best of breed, though.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 6, 2020
The COO of ARX has just stepped down and there has been no announcement about it. The dividend is not safe at $43, but at $50 it is. They will likely continue to pay dividends for the next quarter or two, but will have to re-evaluate after. There are better names out there to buy. Yield 10.6%
Show full opinionHide full opinion
The COO of ARX has just stepped down and there has been no announcement about it. The dividend is not safe at $43, but at $50 it is. They will likely continue to pay dividends for the next quarter or two, but will have to re-evaluate after. There are better names out there to buy. Yield 10.6%
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020

TOG vs ARX vs WCP? He favours TOG and WCP over ARX presently. TOG has a 7.7% yield and trades only at 6% above the blow down value of their existing wells and has a strong balance sheet.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 12, 2020

TOG vs ARX vs WCP? He favours TOG and WCP over ARX presently. TOG has a 7.7% yield and trades only at 6% above the blow down value of their existing wells and has a strong balance sheet.

HOLD
HOLD
February 12, 2020
An incredibly well run company. He sold out last year after making a 35% profit. They have some natural gas exposure. They have a massive play in the Montney region where other large players are getting great results. He thinks their need to pay dividends will mean they take a measured move into developing this new play. Meanwhile they are paying a 9% yield, which he thinks is safe if there is reasonable price recovery in natural gas.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
February 12, 2020
An incredibly well run company. He sold out last year after making a 35% profit. They have some natural gas exposure. They have a massive play in the Montney region where other large players are getting great results. He thinks their need to pay dividends will mean they take a measured move into developing this new play. Meanwhile they are paying a 9% yield, which he thinks is safe if there is reasonable price recovery in natural gas.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 31, 2020
A well-run company that pays a reasonable dividend. Until the sell-off in energy sector stocks finishes, which he thinks isn't over, he would steer clear. It needs to build a better base before he would enter. Some of the multiples are attractive but the fossil fuel sell-off is still underway. With the warm winter, natural gas consumption could also be depressed. Dividend at 8.5%.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 31, 2020
A well-run company that pays a reasonable dividend. Until the sell-off in energy sector stocks finishes, which he thinks isn't over, he would steer clear. It needs to build a better base before he would enter. Some of the multiples are attractive but the fossil fuel sell-off is still underway. With the warm winter, natural gas consumption could also be depressed. Dividend at 8.5%.
WATCH
WATCH
January 24, 2020
A good entry now? The company likes the dividend model. The balance sheet is in good shape - $840 million debt vs $3.5 billion in equity. Production is 67% liquids. They expect production growth in Q4 2020. It is on his watch list. He thinks the dividend is secure. Yield 8.5%
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 24, 2020
A good entry now? The company likes the dividend model. The balance sheet is in good shape - $840 million debt vs $3.5 billion in equity. Production is 67% liquids. They expect production growth in Q4 2020. It is on his watch list. He thinks the dividend is secure. Yield 8.5%
HOLD
HOLD
January 17, 2020

Income safe? Both ARX (8% yield and 100% payout ratio) and IPL (yield of 7.7% payout ratio of 110%). He thinks both should be fine to continue with the dividend. If he had to pick, he would prefer ARX as a producer and with lower debt.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
January 17, 2020

Income safe? Both ARX (8% yield and 100% payout ratio) and IPL (yield of 7.7% payout ratio of 110%). He thinks both should be fine to continue with the dividend. If he had to pick, he would prefer ARX as a producer and with lower debt.

BUY
BUY
January 8, 2020
Recent price drop? One of his favorites in energy. Relative to its peers, it is well capitalized and has good production prospects. He would recommend it. If you are only going to own a couple of holdings in energy, he would consider holding an integrated. Yield 7.5%
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Recent price drop? One of his favorites in energy. Relative to its peers, it is well capitalized and has good production prospects. He would recommend it. If you are only going to own a couple of holdings in energy, he would consider holding an integrated. Yield 7.5%
HOLD
HOLD
January 3, 2020
A well run company that has a blend of oil and gas. It has rebounded in price nicely. This is one of his five go-to names in the energy space.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
A well run company that has a blend of oil and gas. It has rebounded in price nicely. This is one of his five go-to names in the energy space.
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
December 31, 2019
Arc vs. CPG A high-quality energy company. This used to be a $30 stock. A very well-run company, trading at historically low multiples and pays nearly a 7% yield. They operate in a great location, run by fine managers. Not too much debt. This remains a screaming buy at these levels. If there is a lift in oil sentiment, this will easily rise past $10. Better than CPG.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 31, 2019
Arc vs. CPG A high-quality energy company. This used to be a $30 stock. A very well-run company, trading at historically low multiples and pays nearly a 7% yield. They operate in a great location, run by fine managers. Not too much debt. This remains a screaming buy at these levels. If there is a lift in oil sentiment, this will easily rise past $10. Better than CPG.
BUY
BUY
December 20, 2019
A Canadian gas producer that pays a good dividend. Not a very exciting chart, but it is a well managed company. The dividend is safe. With the price of gas taking a beating over the last couple years, it’s probably reached a low point.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 20, 2019
A Canadian gas producer that pays a good dividend. Not a very exciting chart, but it is a well managed company. The dividend is safe. With the price of gas taking a beating over the last couple years, it’s probably reached a low point.
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
It's been a pretty decent winner. It may seem like you missed the rally, but these stocks got so beaten down. The rally, when compared to a 5 year chart, shows the upside potential. They have high quality assets, and a management team that is tried and tested; an extremely strong balance sheet and optimality on developing their asset with improved completion techniques.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 19, 2019
It's been a pretty decent winner. It may seem like you missed the rally, but these stocks got so beaten down. The rally, when compared to a 5 year chart, shows the upside potential. They have high quality assets, and a management team that is tried and tested; an extremely strong balance sheet and optimality on developing their asset with improved completion techniques.
BUY
BUY
December 13, 2019

Last time he was on, it was a good recommendation. It's a great company. He particularly likes that the gas market is going well. Momentum is good.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 13, 2019

Last time he was on, it was a good recommendation. It's a great company. He particularly likes that the gas market is going well. Momentum is good.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 11, 2019
Tax loss selling? He thinks AECO natural gas prices going up 400% from lows in October are helping the valuation. This may have kept the share price from falling too much with seasonal tax loss selling. He does not know where AECO prices are going forward, but if you feel they are going to hold or go higher, now is the time to buy.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 11, 2019
Tax loss selling? He thinks AECO natural gas prices going up 400% from lows in October are helping the valuation. This may have kept the share price from falling too much with seasonal tax loss selling. He does not know where AECO prices are going forward, but if you feel they are going to hold or go higher, now is the time to buy.
WATCH
WATCH
December 6, 2019
The chart is showing a consolidation phase. If the price breaks above the recent high, it would be quite positive.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
December 6, 2019
The chart is showing a consolidation phase. If the price breaks above the recent high, it would be quite positive.
BUY
BUY
November 21, 2019
It is pretty cheap. Under $6 you should buy it. They can produce gas for the LNG potential. Under $6 it is a gift. Almost a 10% dividend yield. (Analysts’ price target is $9.22)
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 21, 2019
It is pretty cheap. Under $6 you should buy it. They can produce gas for the LNG potential. Under $6 it is a gift. Almost a 10% dividend yield. (Analysts’ price target is $9.22)
SELL
SELL
November 19, 2019
The chart is broken and acting poorly. If you're young, you can take a chance with this. Otherwise, sell this.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 19, 2019
The chart is broken and acting poorly. If you're young, you can take a chance with this. Otherwise, sell this.
BUY
BUY
November 18, 2019
Great dividend. The management team is excellent. They have a huge undeveloped land position. They own a lot of infrastructure themselves. They will be increasing egress capacity. There are a lot of positives in this company but nobody wants to own oil and gas companies. This would be his number one choice for an oil and gas company.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 18, 2019
Great dividend. The management team is excellent. They have a huge undeveloped land position. They own a lot of infrastructure themselves. They will be increasing egress capacity. There are a lot of positives in this company but nobody wants to own oil and gas companies. This would be his number one choice for an oil and gas company.
BUY
BUY
November 18, 2019
He likes it. It's bottoming. Energy should rise next year and so should this.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 18, 2019
He likes it. It's bottoming. Energy should rise next year and so should this.
BUY
BUY
November 15, 2019
He thinks there is still good upside to come. The sector has put all the good companies in the same camp as the poor performers and dragged all down to the same reduced valuations. Arc is yielding 9.1% and trades at a 25% discount to their reserve valuation. Out to 2021 their spending drops to create a 10% free cash flow yield after paying the dividend. He still sees this as an opportunity.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 15, 2019
He thinks there is still good upside to come. The sector has put all the good companies in the same camp as the poor performers and dragged all down to the same reduced valuations. Arc is yielding 9.1% and trades at a 25% discount to their reserve valuation. Out to 2021 their spending drops to create a 10% free cash flow yield after paying the dividend. He still sees this as an opportunity.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
November 8, 2019
He used to own this. It is mostly a BC natural gas producer. Natural gas prices have been depressed and a lack of northern BC pipeline access has been shown in the stock price. He likes the management team, but the fundamentals are still a concern. Lately natural gas prices have been improving, but he wants to hold it long term. Maybe its a better short term trade. When LNG gets going on the west coast it will benefit.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
November 8, 2019
He used to own this. It is mostly a BC natural gas producer. Natural gas prices have been depressed and a lack of northern BC pipeline access has been shown in the stock price. He likes the management team, but the fundamentals are still a concern. Lately natural gas prices have been improving, but he wants to hold it long term. Maybe its a better short term trade. When LNG gets going on the west coast it will benefit.
BUY
BUY
October 28, 2019
He bought it in the last couple of months. The western Canadian energy space has been decimated and no one wants to own you if you are not in the index. They had a bit of a headwind from nat gas pricing in western Canada. ARX-T is trading where it was in the last '90s. The dividend is sustainable at this level. If you can close your eyes, over time you will be rewarded handsomely. It is close to 10% so you get paid to wait. Great assets and a great management team with a proven ability to develop those assets over a period of time. It is the most hated sector in Canada and can be bought at 30 year lows.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 28, 2019
He bought it in the last couple of months. The western Canadian energy space has been decimated and no one wants to own you if you are not in the index. They had a bit of a headwind from nat gas pricing in western Canada. ARX-T is trading where it was in the last '90s. The dividend is sustainable at this level. If you can close your eyes, over time you will be rewarded handsomely. It is close to 10% so you get paid to wait. Great assets and a great management team with a proven ability to develop those assets over a period of time. It is the most hated sector in Canada and can be bought at 30 year lows.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 22, 2019

MFC vs. Arc Arc is riskier while MFC is steadier. MFC is at an excellent price now, close to book value and offers a 12% ROE. Best in this sector with great Asian growth potential. They have a long way to sort out problems with long-term care in the U.S. Arc is good if you want more torque in your portfolio.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 22, 2019

MFC vs. Arc Arc is riskier while MFC is steadier. MFC is at an excellent price now, close to book value and offers a 12% ROE. Best in this sector with great Asian growth potential. They have a long way to sort out problems with long-term care in the U.S. Arc is good if you want more torque in your portfolio.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 21, 2019
Has a yield of 10.9% yield which seems to be sustainable. Earnings revisions have been revised down.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 21, 2019
Has a yield of 10.9% yield which seems to be sustainable. Earnings revisions have been revised down.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 11, 2019

Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 11, 2019

Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.

BUY
BUY
October 11, 2019

Good energy dividend payers? For a five year time period, there are a few 9% dividend payers which are safe, he thinks. He would suggest ARX-T (11% yield), WCP-T, and TOG-T (each yielding around 9%). He thinks the dividends are safe to $50 WTI. These stocks are just so undervalued and have enormous upside if investment comes back.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)
October 11, 2019

Good energy dividend payers? For a five year time period, there are a few 9% dividend payers which are safe, he thinks. He would suggest ARX-T</