Philip Morris International

PM-N

Analysis and Opinions about PM-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 9, 2015

They have diversified into some food businesses. Smokeless tobacco has not been that big for them. 4.8% yield. You can go to other sectors without the same degree of risk.

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They have diversified into some food businesses. Smokeless tobacco has not been that big for them. 4.8% yield. You can go to other sectors without the same degree of risk.

BUY
BUY
September 8, 2015

Scores really well on a relative price momentum basis and volatility. A little expensive at 12X EBITDA and 18X price to free cash flow. Good yield of 5.2%. Balance sheet is in great shape. He would be comfortable holding this here.

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Scores really well on a relative price momentum basis and volatility. A little expensive at 12X EBITDA and 18X price to free cash flow. Good yield of 5.2%. Balance sheet is in great shape. He would be comfortable holding this here.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 12, 2015

An industry that is in secular decline with a lot of regulatory pressure. Over the long-term he doesn’t think it is a business that you particularly want to be invested in. Sentiment is swinging even more towards anti-smoking and anti-tobacco products. He would avoid this stock.

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An industry that is in secular decline with a lot of regulatory pressure. Over the long-term he doesn’t think it is a business that you particularly want to be invested in. Sentiment is swinging even more towards anti-smoking and anti-tobacco products. He would avoid this stock.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 9, 2015

He has an issue that 40% of the S&P earnings come from abroad so it makes it challenging for companies that have even higher international exposure and this one is much higher.

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He has an issue that 40% of the S&P earnings come from abroad so it makes it challenging for companies that have even higher international exposure and this one is much higher.

BUY
BUY
November 20, 2014

Look at the dividend growth history. It has been very regular. He is big fans of this category. As a business model they are very attractive. Not expensive because of the regulatory risk.

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Look at the dividend growth history. It has been very regular. He is big fans of this category. As a business model they are very attractive. Not expensive because of the regulatory risk.

BUY
BUY
October 9, 2014

In the developed economies, there is less cigarette consumption so it is more of a volume and pricing story. Because of their perceived litigation risks, these companies trade at quite low multiples and they tend to increase their dividends very regularly. He prefers British-American Tobacco (BTI-A), but likes this one as well. He would suggest that you buy this, hold it and put it away.

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In the developed economies, there is less cigarette consumption so it is more of a volume and pricing story. Because of their perceived litigation risks, these companies trade at quite low multiples and they tend to increase their dividends very regularly. He prefers British-American Tobacco (BTI-A), but likes this one as well. He would suggest that you buy this, hold it and put it away.

HOLD
HOLD
July 25, 2014

Likes the sin stocks and tobacco has been a great investment longer-term. Prefers British American Tobacco (BTI-A) because it doesn’t have the same level of liability risk. Indonesia and Vietnam are big growth drivers for them. Longer-term you should be fine.

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Likes the sin stocks and tobacco has been a great investment longer-term. Prefers British American Tobacco (BTI-A) because it doesn’t have the same level of liability risk. Indonesia and Vietnam are big growth drivers for them. Longer-term you should be fine.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 10, 2014

Doesn’t think you are going to get a lot of growth out of this. Cigarettes are on the downturn. This is a cash flow income investment, and in this low rate environment, it will find winners. From a growth point of view, no. It is pretty clear that over time, your capital will go down.

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Doesn’t think you are going to get a lot of growth out of this. Cigarettes are on the downturn. This is a cash flow income investment, and in this low rate environment, it will find winners. From a growth point of view, no. It is pretty clear that over time, your capital will go down.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 16, 2014

A Top Pick (May 2/13. Down 2.17%.) Over time, this company has generated a lot of value for him. The stock has been down because of currency movement. It is a very international company.

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A Top Pick (May 2/13. Down 2.17%.) Over time, this company has generated a lot of value for him. The stock has been down because of currency movement. It is a very international company.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 9, 2014

Doesn’t see growth in the industry. Globally he is seeing a declining smoking rate. Has a hard time investing in a business that is so bad for you.

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Doesn’t see growth in the industry. Globally he is seeing a declining smoking rate. Has a hard time investing in a business that is so bad for you.

BUY
BUY
March 24, 2014

Likes this over the long-term. Had a bit of a pull back over the last year, primarily because of foreign exchange, but looking back over the last 10 years, it is one of those great consumer product companies that just generates gobs of free cash flow. At these levels, it is becoming it pretty compelling investment.

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Likes this over the long-term. Had a bit of a pull back over the last year, primarily because of foreign exchange, but looking back over the last 10 years, it is one of those great consumer product companies that just generates gobs of free cash flow. At these levels, it is becoming it pretty compelling investment.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
March 6, 2014

Everyone is aware of the health concern. Play on Indonesia and Vietnam because they are big smokers there. Prefers BTI-A.

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Everyone is aware of the health concern. Play on Indonesia and Vietnam because they are big smokers there. Prefers BTI-A.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 5, 2014

Cash generating machine. The long term growth outlook is not so robust in developed markets. Growth in emerging markets. Going to underperform in this environment. It is more defensive. Not interested in that category which will decline in the long term.

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Cash generating machine. The long term growth outlook is not so robust in developed markets. Growth in emerging markets. Going to underperform in this environment. It is more defensive. Not interested in that category which will decline in the long term.

WAIT
WAIT
February 20, 2014

The best time is in the summer time until the end of the year. We are in a downtrend and it might set up.

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The best time is in the summer time until the end of the year. We are in a downtrend and it might set up.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 29, 2014

The attractive thing about this is the dividend yield. As interest rates start to rise, dividend attractive companies have less appeal. The company itself is still doing very well. Internationally there is more and more resistance to smoking. However, 20% of the people globally still smoke. Outside of China, this company controls about 29% of the market. They have also moved aggressively into electronic smoking. At 14.5X earnings, this is a pretty good place to be.

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The attractive thing about this is the dividend yield. As interest rates start to rise, dividend attractive companies have less appeal. The company itself is still doing very well. Internationally there is more and more resistance to smoking. However, 20% of the people globally still smoke. Outside of China, this company controls about 29% of the market. They have also moved aggressively into electronic smoking. At 14.5X earnings, this is a pretty good place to be.

STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
January 24, 2014

Likes this as a good solid dividend payer. Despite the fact that there is a 3%-4% decline in cigarette consumption on an annual basis, they have done a tremendous job of harvesting their cash flow. Japan had increase the excise tax, which has diminished demand and resulted in an intense price competition internationally. This is a really good entry point. In the last 5 years, their dividend is up 18%. Yield of 4.58%.

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Likes this as a good solid dividend payer. Despite the fact that there is a 3%-4% decline in cigarette consumption on an annual basis, they have done a tremendous job of harvesting their cash flow. Japan had increase the excise tax, which has diminished demand and resulted in an intense price competition internationally. This is a really good entry point. In the last 5 years, their dividend is up 18%. Yield of 4.58%.

BUY
BUY
November 25, 2013

(Market Call Minute) Weakened off and short term outlook has come down but not long term. Take advantage of that.

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(Market Call Minute) Weakened off and short term outlook has come down but not long term. Take advantage of that.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 8, 2013

Yielding a little over 4%. Earnings and cash flow growth is in the 9% range. Not a cheap stock right now. Cigarette companies have margins that are in the 60%-70% range so they don’t have to grow their revenues to have it flow to the bottom line in profitability. Debt to equity ratio is only at 61% so they can leverage the balance sheet and buy back shares if they want. Prefers companies that increase dividends rather than buying back shares.

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Yielding a little over 4%. Earnings and cash flow growth is in the 9% range. Not a cheap stock right now. Cigarette companies have margins that are in the 60%-70% range so they don’t have to grow their revenues to have it flow to the bottom line in profitability. Debt to equity ratio is only at 61% so they can leverage the balance sheet and buy back shares if they want. Prefers companies that increase dividends rather than buying back shares.

BUY
BUY
October 4, 2013

Has done very well. Really represented a good place to hide. Great distributions through their dividends. Altria (MO-N) is the domestic (US) side of the tobacco play and has much, much more regulatory risks. Growth is decent and the dividend is good.

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Has done very well. Really represented a good place to hide. Great distributions through their dividends. Altria (MO-N) is the domestic (US) side of the tobacco play and has much, much more regulatory risks. Growth is decent and the dividend is good.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 19, 2013

Recently sold his holdings because he had had a tremendous return. Tobacco stocks are very defensive and he didn’t want to be that defensive. As interest rates creep higher, the stock essentially rolls over. A better entry point would be around $80.

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Recently sold his holdings because he had had a tremendous return. Tobacco stocks are very defensive and he didn’t want to be that defensive. As interest rates creep higher, the stock essentially rolls over. A better entry point would be around $80.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 9, 2013

4% dividend is good, but not great. A few acquisitions were put together. But he does not like the cigarette business. Too many laws working against you and getting worse. There is a trend toward people getting healthier. It has a beta of 1 so it may not be that defensive. Not a lot of growth potential.

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4% dividend is good, but not great. A few acquisitions were put together. But he does not like the cigarette business. Too many laws working against you and getting worse. There is a trend toward people getting healthier. It has a beta of 1 so it may not be that defensive. Not a lot of growth potential.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 4, 2013

(A Top Pick May 2/13. Down 10.99%.) Good Steady Eddie type of company. If the stock got under $80, he would be buying more.

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(A Top Pick May 2/13. Down 10.99%.) Good Steady Eddie type of company. If the stock got under $80, he would be buying more.

VAGUE
VAGUE
May 16, 2013

They've taken their profits so no longer own it. But still likes it.

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They've taken their profits so no longer own it. But still likes it.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 2, 2013

World’s largest, most successful tobacco company. Great free cash flow business. Undervalued. Yield of 3.58%.

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World’s largest, most successful tobacco company. Great free cash flow business. Undervalued. Yield of 3.58%.

BUY
BUY
April 24, 2013

For those who have no ethical concerns, tobacco stocks are great. From a practical point of view, concerns about litigation risks means that the valuations are very, very low. Low valuations coupled with high dividends, attached to the emerging markets, have worked very, very well. His preference would be British-American Tobacco (BTI-N).

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For those who have no ethical concerns, tobacco stocks are great. From a practical point of view, concerns about litigation risks means that the valuations are very, very low. Low valuations coupled with high dividends, attached to the emerging markets, have worked very, very well. His preference would be British-American Tobacco (BTI-N).

BUY
BUY
February 13, 2013

Philip Morris (PM-N) or Anheuser Busch (BUD-N)? If he were picking a sin stock, hands-down it would be tobacco. Because of potential litigation liability attached to it, they are relatively cheap stocks with big, fat dividends. Very tied into the Vietnamese and Indonesian markets and are going to be a big growth story going forward.

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Philip Morris (PM-N) or Anheuser Busch (BUD-N)? If he were picking a sin stock, hands-down it would be tobacco. Because of potential litigation liability attached to it, they are relatively cheap stocks with big, fat dividends. Very tied into the Vietnamese and Indonesian markets and are going to be a big growth story going forward.

BUY
BUY
January 17, 2013

Likes this but doesn’t own at this point because he has rotated out of defensive names and into more cyclicals. Long-term this is great. Good yield of 3.8%.

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Likes this but doesn’t own at this point because he has rotated out of defensive names and into more cyclicals. Long-term this is great. Good yield of 3.8%.

BUY
BUY
December 27, 2012

Tobacco companies have pulled back from their highs. They have very good pricing power as well as great free cash flow. Pay good dividends. You have to weigh these things against regulatory risks, etc. Cheap.

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Tobacco companies have pulled back from their highs. They have very good pricing power as well as great free cash flow. Pay good dividends. You have to weigh these things against regulatory risks, etc. Cheap.

BUY
BUY
November 21, 2012

Tobacco is growing modestly. It has always paid a great dividend. Smoking is more ubiquitous internationally. Nothing wrong with it from a dividend point of view.

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Tobacco is growing modestly. It has always paid a great dividend. Smoking is more ubiquitous internationally. Nothing wrong with it from a dividend point of view.

BUY
BUY
September 13, 2012

International tobacco. Consumption is at least steady and is moving up. Company just raised its dividend 10%. With a yield of 3.77%, it is not bad. Very solid defensive name. Low beta of about .7-.75.

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International tobacco. Consumption is at least steady and is moving up. Company just raised its dividend 10%. With a yield of 3.77%, it is not bad. Very solid defensive name. Low beta of about .7-.75.

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