Fortress Global Enterprises Inc

FGE-T

Analysis and Opinions about FGE-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 17, 2013

This company is not attractive to him.

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This company is not attractive to him.

HOLD
HOLD
June 13, 2013

Facility in Quebec has had its problems. Sold their Dresden facility at a fair price. They are making a lot of corrections to what is going on. A lot of good things are happening but it is a show-me stock. He is going to stick with it and see what happens.

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Facility in Quebec has had its problems. Sold their Dresden facility at a fair price. They are making a lot of corrections to what is going on. A lot of good things are happening but it is a show-me stock. He is going to stick with it and see what happens.

WATCH
WATCH
June 3, 2013

We had support but now it has broken it. He needs to see something good happen before stepping in. It could be a value trap.

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We had support but now it has broken it. He needs to see something good happen before stepping in. It could be a value trap.

WATCH
WATCH
May 3, 2013

Has been in a 2+ year downtrend which may be breaking right now. He likes to buy after a base breakout. It is attempting to base. If it breaks out then he would buy. There may be a case for trading it right now.

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Has been in a 2+ year downtrend which may be breaking right now. He likes to buy after a base breakout. It is attempting to base. If it breaks out then he would buy. There may be a case for trading it right now.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2013

In the penalty box. Had problems getting on track with their dissolving pulp plant in Québec. Just hired a new manager of the plant, which the market likes. Suspects the wallpaper facility in Dresden Germany and the printing facility in Switzerland are both up for sale. If they sell the Dresden plant, it could probably fetch $200-$300 million, which would pay off all debt. Have to show a couple of quarters of consistency.

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In the penalty box. Had problems getting on track with their dissolving pulp plant in Québec. Just hired a new manager of the plant, which the market likes. Suspects the wallpaper facility in Dresden Germany and the printing facility in Switzerland are both up for sale. If they sell the Dresden plant, it could probably fetch $200-$300 million, which would pay off all debt. Have to show a couple of quarters of consistency.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 6, 2013

Great idea but there was a lot of execution risks that came into the name. Things that were going to happen in a quarter were pushed back, plants that were supposed to perform at a certain level performed at lower levels, etc., etc. Management is doing their best to turn it around but there are now some very big execution questions over the company.

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Great idea but there was a lot of execution risks that came into the name. Things that were going to happen in a quarter were pushed back, plants that were supposed to perform at a certain level performed at lower levels, etc., etc. Management is doing their best to turn it around but there are now some very big execution questions over the company.

WATCH
WATCH
November 16, 2012

Deep in the penalty box. Problem is that the company has disappointed. Printing side has had a tough time. Need 2-4 months of operation and a strong stomach on this one. Company has incredible torque and leverage to dissolving pulp prices. People aren’t confident in the CEO.

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Deep in the penalty box. Problem is that the company has disappointed. Printing side has had a tough time. Need 2-4 months of operation and a strong stomach on this one. Company has incredible torque and leverage to dissolving pulp prices. People aren’t confident in the CEO.

WATCH
WATCH
November 5, 2012

There is a probably a recognition trade for the next week or two. Would not touch it yet and then there could be tax loss session so study it then.

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There is a probably a recognition trade for the next week or two. Would not touch it yet and then there could be tax loss session so study it then.

WAIT
WAIT
October 22, 2012

Cautious on this one. They have 3 basic businesses including dissolving pulp, a mill in Germany that makes wallpaper and a mill that makes paper for currency. 2 of them are not doing particularly well. Dissolving pulp is not bearing fruit yet and the currency paper mill is having some struggles. Too many irons in the fire and needs time to pull it all together.w

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Cautious on this one. They have 3 basic businesses including dissolving pulp, a mill in Germany that makes wallpaper and a mill that makes paper for currency. 2 of them are not doing particularly well. Dissolving pulp is not bearing fruit yet and the currency paper mill is having some struggles. Too many irons in the fire and needs time to pull it all together.w

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 17, 2012

They are dynamic and determined. Have done some wonderful purchases of the plants. Using pulp to manufacture rayon. The swing on this stock in the downward direction is very much tied into the pricing of cotton, which seems to be one of the most violent commodities. Very difficult one to gauge at the moment.

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They are dynamic and determined. Have done some wonderful purchases of the plants. Using pulp to manufacture rayon. The swing on this stock in the downward direction is very much tied into the pricing of cotton, which seems to be one of the most violent commodities. Very difficult one to gauge at the moment.

BUY
BUY
September 10, 2012

Conrarian Buy. Sold all of his capital cost on the way up. Has a lot of respect for management. Has dissolving pulp mills; Facility for printing in Switzerland is coming back; Wallpaper plant in Germany could be a take-out target. Street is losing faith. Buy under $15.

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Conrarian Buy. Sold all of his capital cost on the way up. Has a lot of respect for management. Has dissolving pulp mills; Facility for printing in Switzerland is coming back; Wallpaper plant in Germany could be a take-out target. Street is losing faith. Buy under $15.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 10, 2012

Controversial stock. Has been a highflyer at times and has run into a lot of problems also. Recently has run into some issues. Very aggressive at going into the dissolving pulp business. Haven't shown the ability to execute on their specialty applications. A “show me” story.

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Controversial stock. Has been a highflyer at times and has run into a lot of problems also. Recently has run into some issues. Very aggressive at going into the dissolving pulp business. Haven't shown the ability to execute on their specialty applications. A “show me” story.

WATCH
WATCH
August 7, 2012

Disappointed investors but has a big following for such a small company. Wallpaper mill is doing well, currency paper is struggling, and then pulp is not doing well. Not for him. Watch it for now.

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Disappointed investors but has a big following for such a small company. Wallpaper mill is doing well, currency paper is struggling, and then pulp is not doing well. Not for him. Watch it for now.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 22, 2012
In the penalty box. Unfortunately it takes longer and is more costly to put a dissolving pulp mill into production in Thurso, Que. They are at 92% and once they get into full capacity, cash flow should be coming in. Just raised $69 million in a 7% convertible debenture.
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In the penalty box. Unfortunately it takes longer and is more costly to put a dissolving pulp mill into production in Thurso, Que. They are at 92% and once they get into full capacity, cash flow should be coming in. Just raised $69 million in a 7% convertible debenture.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 12, 2012
This is not a company that he can properly value as they have not produced any earnings. Doesn't fit with this type of value company.
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This is not a company that he can properly value as they have not produced any earnings. Doesn't fit with this type of value company.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 11, 2012
Paper in industrial quantities is enormously sensitive to volume and pricing. It is still well above where it was because of the success in getting cheap capacity. Recent news makes it more optimistic but it is all dependent on there not being a major slowdown in the products it makes.
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Paper in industrial quantities is enormously sensitive to volume and pricing. It is still well above where it was because of the success in getting cheap capacity. Recent news makes it more optimistic but it is all dependent on there not being a major slowdown in the products it makes.
WATCH
WATCH
May 25, 2012
Very interesting company but has disappointed people lately. 3 units include 1) European currency, which is very problematic, 2) wallpaper for Europe and 3) a dissolving pulp plant, which they may grow. The last one is attractive as it is basically a competitor to cotton as it is used to make rayon.
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Very interesting company but has disappointed people lately. 3 units include 1) European currency, which is very problematic, 2) wallpaper for Europe and 3) a dissolving pulp plant, which they may grow. The last one is attractive as it is basically a competitor to cotton as it is used to make rayon.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 20, 2012
Top Short This stock is breaking a lot of support. If it continues to drop, ($25 is a key level) you can see $20 on it pretty quickly. Current level is not a trading range but is a pause until the next downturn happens.
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Top Short This stock is breaking a lot of support. If it continues to drop, ($25 is a key level) you can see $20 on it pretty quickly. Current level is not a trading range but is a pause until the next downturn happens.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 16, 2012
Seasonality is over for this stuff. Getting closer to its low of $23.80 last August which is a place you could put a marker in if you own. There are better names.
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Seasonality is over for this stuff. Getting closer to its low of $23.80 last August which is a place you could put a marker in if you own. There are better names.
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
April 2, 2012
Specialty paper/chemical company, which makes pulp into rayon. Likes this lot. Stock has corrected because of market sentiment against commodity related stocks. Also, the company is a couple of quarters behind. Should be at 90% of production by the end of June. 2nd mill goes on line at the end of 2013. Low-cost producer. Reasonably good balance sheet. Trading at about 4-5 times expected earnings. Should free cash flow $6-$7 a share starting June 30. Worth $60-$70 and going to over $100 in the next 3 years.
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Specialty paper/chemical company, which makes pulp into rayon. Likes this lot. Stock has corrected because of market sentiment against commodity related stocks. Also, the company is a couple of quarters behind. Should be at 90% of production by the end of June. 2nd mill goes on line at the end of 2013. Low-cost producer. Reasonably good balance sheet. Trading at about 4-5 times expected earnings. Should free cash flow $6-$7 a share starting June 30. Worth $60-$70 and going to over $100 in the next 3 years.
BUY
BUY
March 22, 2012
Likes the company. They are in the penalty box until they get a mill in Quebec going. Company looks to be cheap on a growth play. You need patience until second quarter this year and see all their pulp revenues come through. Thinks they have hidden assets.
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Likes the company. They are in the penalty box until they get a mill in Quebec going. Company looks to be cheap on a growth play. You need patience until second quarter this year and see all their pulp revenues come through. Thinks they have hidden assets.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 23, 2012
There is some really good support at around $34 with some resistance at around $45. If you own and it got above $45, he would add more.
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There is some really good support at around $34 with some resistance at around $45. If you own and it got above $45, he would add more.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 14, 2012
Not a paper company. Produce dissolving pulp. Used for Rayon. Rayon is a substitute for cotton. 6x free cash flow. By middle of this year should be at a run rate of $6. 17% earning yield. Announced second plant in Quebec for end of 2013. Could add $5 a share of free cash flow. Could be over $100 in 2 to 3 years.
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Not a paper company. Produce dissolving pulp. Used for Rayon. Rayon is a substitute for cotton. 6x free cash flow. By middle of this year should be at a run rate of $6. 17% earning yield. Announced second plant in Quebec for end of 2013. Could add $5 a share of free cash flow. Could be over $100 in 2 to 3 years.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 3, 2012
New plant they are buying and converting looks quite interesting. PE on a trailing basis is about 10X. ROE is interesting at about 20%. His Quant system does not rate it well because near-term earnings are declining dramatically. Was $.38 last year and the most recent quarter in November was minus $.51. If they can get it together, growth rate in earnings should be pretty good.
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New plant they are buying and converting looks quite interesting. PE on a trailing basis is about 10X. ROE is interesting at about 20%. His Quant system does not rate it well because near-term earnings are declining dramatically. Was $.38 last year and the most recent quarter in November was minus $.51. If they can get it together, growth rate in earnings should be pretty good.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 27, 2012
Chart shows it had a down trend and it is breaking out.
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Chart shows it had a down trend and it is breaking out.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 19, 2012
Lumber has eeen decent and has moved up with the housing stocks. Chart shows lower lows, which is pretty positive. There will be some overhead resistance at around $45.
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Lumber has eeen decent and has moved up with the housing stocks. Chart shows lower lows, which is pretty positive. There will be some overhead resistance at around $45.
BUY
BUY
January 10, 2012
He hasn’t heard anything as to whether it is going well getting their pulp plant up and running. A difficult process of conversion, so he is hoping for the best. It is well down from amazing highs in the beginning.
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He hasn’t heard anything as to whether it is going well getting their pulp plant up and running. A difficult process of conversion, so he is hoping for the best. It is well down from amazing highs in the beginning.
SELL
SELL
December 2, 2011
He is a bit leery about anything related to the paper industry because of the problems with the Chinese on paper stocks. In a downward trend with 2 selling waves. Today's movement is just horrible.
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He is a bit leery about anything related to the paper industry because of the problems with the Chinese on paper stocks. In a downward trend with 2 selling waves. Today's movement is just horrible.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 21, 2011
This is a ”story” stock. Have a wonderful new dissolving plant that may change the way paper and clothing work. Until they get it up and running and prove that they have 3 to 5 years of growing earnings, he won't buy.
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This is a ”story” stock. Have a wonderful new dissolving plant that may change the way paper and clothing work. Until they get it up and running and prove that they have 3 to 5 years of growing earnings, he won't buy.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 31, 2011
They are about to launch production on dissolving pulp in a converted mill that they acquired very cheaply in Québec. Have some forward about 80% of their product. Have good people with great experience in the business.
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They are about to launch production on dissolving pulp in a converted mill that they acquired very cheaply in Québec. Have some forward about 80% of their product. Have good people with great experience in the business.
BUY
BUY
October 27, 2011
Had a wildcat strike for a day or two that was not sanctioned by the union. Their product is used in Rayon and the demand is growing. Better aesthetics and breathes easier than cotton. About 5x earnings. Was over due for a technical correction. As we move forward the company is talking about two more plants in 2013, which would be very exciting, but he is not counting on it.
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Had a wildcat strike for a day or two that was not sanctioned by the union. Their product is used in Rayon and the demand is growing. Better aesthetics and breathes easier than cotton. About 5x earnings. Was over due for a technical correction. As we move forward the company is talking about two more plants in 2013, which would be very exciting, but he is not counting on it.
BUY
BUY
September 27, 2011
3 components. Banknotes, wallpaper and a pulp mill in the East. Down heavily and not firing off as heavily as he expected. There has been a little delay in the start up of the pulp mill. Brilliant management.
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3 components. Banknotes, wallpaper and a pulp mill in the East. Down heavily and not firing off as heavily as he expected. There has been a little delay in the start up of the pulp mill. Brilliant management.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 9, 2011
Specialty paper. A lot of good things are happening. Company is looking to do another pulp deal. Switzerland printing is a little soft right now. Doing extra ordinary well on their wallpaper in Germany. Should be in production shortly on their dissolving pulp business. Good management.
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Specialty paper. A lot of good things are happening. Company is looking to do another pulp deal. Switzerland printing is a little soft right now. Doing extra ordinary well on their wallpaper in Germany. Should be in production shortly on their dissolving pulp business. Good management.
BUY
BUY
July 8, 2011
Involved in 3 different segments. 1) Printing passports and currency out of Switzerland. 2) Wallpaper facility in Dresden Germany. 3) Pulp mill in Quebec and in the process of producing dissolving pulp giving an alternative to cotton. 50%-60% of potential production of pulp has been sold forward to Chinese. Should go considerably higher.
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Involved in 3 different segments. 1) Printing passports and currency out of Switzerland. 2) Wallpaper facility in Dresden Germany. 3) Pulp mill in Quebec and in the process of producing dissolving pulp giving an alternative to cotton. 50%-60% of potential production of pulp has been sold forward to Chinese. Should go considerably higher.
BUY
BUY
June 27, 2011
Solid management team. Has some commodity price risk. Have some substitutes for agricultural commodities in some of their plants that they are working on. You are really making a bet on the management team. Pretty attractively valued now.
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Solid management team. Has some commodity price risk. Have some substitutes for agricultural commodities in some of their plants that they are working on. You are really making a bet on the management team. Pretty attractively valued now.
BUY
BUY
June 14, 2011
Nothing is a table-pounding buy. Started selling off before the decline. There is a need to get their new plant into production. Does bank notes and wallpaper. It is all good stuff in Poland.
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Nothing is a table-pounding buy. Started selling off before the decline. There is a need to get their new plant into production. Does bank notes and wallpaper. It is all good stuff in Poland.
BUY
BUY
April 27, 2011
Peaked at around $62 in the spring. Moving into dissolving pulp (for making rayon) and did an excellent acquisition and now looking at another one. Their costs are around $600 a ton dissolving pulp is running anywhere from $2500 to $3000. Lawsuit against them out of China. Down the road could be split into 2 or 3 companies with the pulp side on its own, which would add value.
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Peaked at around $62 in the spring. Moving into dissolving pulp (for making rayon) and did an excellent acquisition and now looking at another one. Their costs are around $600 a ton dissolving pulp is running anywhere from $2500 to $3000. Lawsuit against them out of China. Down the road could be split into 2 or 3 companies with the pulp side on its own, which would add value.
BUY
BUY
March 24, 2011
A Fantastic story. Run up is from dissolving pulp area because of cotton prices being very high. It is an input to rayon. It is volatile.
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A Fantastic story. Run up is from dissolving pulp area because of cotton prices being very high. It is an input to rayon. It is volatile.
BUY
BUY
March 9, 2011
Specialty paper company. Not a lot of people are talking about forest products. She likes it. Excitement in the story is about a pulp plant that they are converting to a product that will be used with rayon, and since cotton products have taken off, there is a lot of interest in rayon. Company will do well after they convert in the summer. It can be rolled out to other plants.
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Specialty paper company. Not a lot of people are talking about forest products. She likes it. Excitement in the story is about a pulp plant that they are converting to a product that will be used with rayon, and since cotton products have taken off, there is a lot of interest in rayon. Company will do well after they convert in the summer. It can be rolled out to other plants.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 18, 2011
Very capable, innovative owner. Started as printing in Switzerland and wallpaper in Germany and went into pulp and paper when they acquired a mill from Fraser Paper. Transforming it from NBHK pulp to dissolving pulp, which is used to make rayon, a substitute for cotton. Market expects they will acquire more pulp mills.
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Very capable, innovative owner. Started as printing in Switzerland and wallpaper in Germany and went into pulp and paper when they acquired a mill from Fraser Paper. Transforming it from NBHK pulp to dissolving pulp, which is used to make rayon, a substitute for cotton. Market expects they will acquire more pulp mills.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 17, 2011
Surprisingly forest product stocks have been some of the best performers. Supply/demand is in balance. Very smooth chart. Generally it will pull back and that is when you want to Buy.
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