Painted Pony Energy

PONY-T

Analysis and Opinions about PONY-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 6, 2013

Saskatchewan oil assets are now a small portion of the company compared to the Northeast BC Montney play that they have. Massive land base with much of it surrounded by the Petronas - Progress land base. Has a great chance of doubling the share price in the next 5 years. They are going to use debt for the 1st time to fund a lot of their production without having to go to the market.

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Saskatchewan oil assets are now a small portion of the company compared to the Northeast BC Montney play that they have. Massive land base with much of it surrounded by the Petronas - Progress land base. Has a great chance of doubling the share price in the next 5 years. They are going to use debt for the 1st time to fund a lot of their production without having to go to the market.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
December 2, 2013

Have very good land positions in Northeast BC that can be developed once LNG terminals get approved. Approval may be late 2014-2015 to have them come in, in 2018. Has a lot of asset value and will be an attractive takeover candidate but, in shorter terms, it is a little stretched. Not for the faint of heart.

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Have very good land positions in Northeast BC that can be developed once LNG terminals get approved. Approval may be late 2014-2015 to have them come in, in 2018. Has a lot of asset value and will be an attractive takeover candidate but, in shorter terms, it is a little stretched. Not for the faint of heart.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
November 7, 2013

Has potential upside and probably not too much downside. This is for people who are a little more risk seeking. Have significant acreage in the Northeast BC area in the Montney play and that is an attractive area. Ultimately, we are moving towards LNG in British Columbia and Alberta. Realistically, this is also a takeout. Takeout and LNG both may take some time.

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Has potential upside and probably not too much downside. This is for people who are a little more risk seeking. Have significant acreage in the Northeast BC area in the Montney play and that is an attractive area. Ultimately, we are moving towards LNG in British Columbia and Alberta. Realistically, this is also a takeout. Takeout and LNG both may take some time.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 4, 2013

There have been two large US sellers so the drop is not related to fundamentals. A call on west coast LNG. The overhang on the market is how they fund it. They are going to use their lines of credit this fall, but they are always prudent in the way they use them. He would buy it a little lower or it is okay if you are bullish on Nat Gas.

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There have been two large US sellers so the drop is not related to fundamentals. A call on west coast LNG. The overhang on the market is how they fund it. They are going to use their lines of credit this fall, but they are always prudent in the way they use them. He would buy it a little lower or it is okay if you are bullish on Nat Gas.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 24, 2013

TSX. Before, the macro environment was making a huge difference and all stocks were moving in the same direction. Over the last 12 months or so, especially the last 6 months, companies that are doing well operationally have been rewarded with higher multiples and those that are not are getting entrenched. It is better now for “stock pickers” like him. He looks at fundamentals of each individual company, looking for growth at a reasonable price. When the market becomes more comfortable overall, it trickles down to the small caps and this has really been shown in the US where the Russell 2000 has really outperformed. In Canada, small caps have underperformed in the last couple of years. As the TSX moves higher, money is going to start to flow to small cap names. Likes Canadian small caps but, on the resource side, you have to be very, very picky because a lot of the companies in the resource sector may run out of money. Make sure that they are low cash cost and have a half decent balance sheet and able to fund themselves.

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TSX. Before, the macro environment was making a huge difference and all stocks were moving in the same direction. Over the last 12 months or so, especially the last 6 months, companies that are doing well operationally have been rewarded with higher multiples and those that are not are getting entrenched. It is better now for “stock pickers” like him. He looks at fundamentals of each individual company, looking for growth at a reasonable price. When the market becomes more comfortable overall, it trickles down to the small caps and this has really been shown in the US where the Russell 2000 has really outperformed. In Canada, small caps have underperformed in the last couple of years. As the TSX moves higher, money is going to start to flow to small cap names. Likes Canadian small caps but, on the resource side, you have to be very, very picky because a lot of the companies in the resource sector may run out of money. Make sure that they are low cash cost and have a half decent balance sheet and able to fund themselves.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 23, 2013

One of the themes that is running in the sector is, you have to have exposure to the Montney in Northeast BC because that is the source of gas for the LNG projects that are going to unfold. This company fits that parameter. Have some tremendous assets up there. If you believe, as he does, that LNG is going to become a fact, this is a pretty good way to get there.

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One of the themes that is running in the sector is, you have to have exposure to the Montney in Northeast BC because that is the source of gas for the LNG projects that are going to unfold. This company fits that parameter. Have some tremendous assets up there. If you believe, as he does, that LNG is going to become a fact, this is a pretty good way to get there.

BUY
BUY
October 8, 2013

Surprised that this is down this low. A perennial “going to be taken over by one of the majors” because it has a lot of resources. Has done a pretty good of growing its production over the long haul. Well financed.

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Surprised that this is down this low. A perennial “going to be taken over by one of the majors” because it has a lot of resources. Has done a pretty good of growing its production over the long haul. Well financed.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 25, 2013

(A Top Pick September 19/12. Down 21.03%.) Great acreage in BC. Takeover target. Execution remains fine. Well results have been in line with expectations. Continues to delineate their acreage. Apathy to natural gas has caused many names to sell off. They have the ability to sell into a pipeline that isn’t as impacted by the wide basis differential so are getting a $.50-$.60 premium compared to other natural gas producers. Still likes.

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
September 25, 2013

(A Top Pick September 19/12. Down 21.03%.) Great acreage in BC. Takeover target. Execution remains fine. Well results have been in line with expectations. Continues to delineate their acreage. Apathy to natural gas has caused many names to sell off. They have the ability to sell into a pipeline that isn’t as impacted by the wide basis differential so are getting a $.50-$.60 premium compared to other natural gas producers. Still likes.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 19, 2013

(A Top Pick Sept 19/12. Down 18.07%.) Natural gas producer. The only challenge according to some people is how do they fund it. Have very aggressive growth plans where they are going to quintuple production over the next several years. If gas stays lower than what they have modeled there is probably going to be a funding gap so will be relying on joint ventures. Talisman (TAL-T) and Suncor (SU-T) currently have acreage up for sale which will need joint ventures as well. You’ll have to be patient.

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(A Top Pick Sept 19/12. Down 18.07%.) Natural gas producer. The only challenge according to some people is how do they fund it. Have very aggressive growth plans where they are going to quintuple production over the next several years. If gas stays lower than what they have modeled there is probably going to be a funding gap so will be relying on joint ventures. Talisman (TAL-T) and Suncor (SU-T) currently have acreage up for sale which will need joint ventures as well. You’ll have to be patient.

BUY
BUY
August 14, 2013

(Market Call Minute.) Extensive lands in Northeast BC/Montney area.

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(Market Call Minute.) Extensive lands in Northeast BC/Montney area.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 9, 2013

Assets they have in the Montney are attractive but the amount of M&A activity is relatively small so he doesn’t see a large corporate acquisition. Relies heavily on the Montney to provide the growth that the market wants. Fortunately, they are experimenting with some new completion techniques on the long reach horizontals which have been remarkable. Looking for good growth. Has 80% natural gas and a reasonably good balance sheet.

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Assets they have in the Montney are attractive but the amount of M&A activity is relatively small so he doesn’t see a large corporate acquisition. Relies heavily on the Montney to provide the growth that the market wants. Fortunately, they are experimenting with some new completion techniques on the long reach horizontals which have been remarkable. Looking for good growth. Has 80% natural gas and a reasonably good balance sheet.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 30, 2013

(A Top Pick September 19/12. Down 26.85%.) Still regarded as a potential takeout target for companies that are building very large LNG terminals. The actual requirement of these companies versus what they already have is increasingly coming into question. The market is very much awash in assets for sale. He would rate this company’s assets as quite good.

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(A Top Pick September 19/12. Down 26.85%.) Still regarded as a potential takeout target for companies that are building very large LNG terminals. The actual requirement of these companies versus what they already have is increasingly coming into question. The market is very much awash in assets for sale. He would rate this company’s assets as quite good.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 23, 2013

Very well run company and have always had considerable financial discipline. Have a large contiguous gas asset in Northeast B.C. and have excellent pipeline access. At some point he thinks it is an M&A target but given his outlook on gas, it is not one he is looking at in the short to medium-term.

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Very well run company and have always had considerable financial discipline. Have a large contiguous gas asset in Northeast B.C. and have excellent pipeline access. At some point he thinks it is an M&A target but given his outlook on gas, it is not one he is looking at in the short to medium-term.

HOLD
HOLD
July 16, 2013

Assets in the Montney in BC as well as Bakken assets in Saskatchewan. Thinks it is an attractive takeover play. Inexpensive.

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Assets in the Montney in BC as well as Bakken assets in Saskatchewan. Thinks it is an attractive takeover play. Inexpensive.

HOLD
HOLD
July 11, 2013

This is an opportune time to pick some more stock here. They may get taken out in the future. He would not sell.

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This is an opportune time to pick some more stock here. They may get taken out in the future. He would not sell.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 11, 2013

If you are going to look at natural gas, look at the really low cost producers with really big resources with a history of low finding costs. He would prefer to look at something like Peyto (PEY-T), a very low cost deep basin producer. Stock is producing the way it should. Or you could look at Vermilion (VET-T), although it is oil and gas, but pays a 4.5% yield.

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If you are going to look at natural gas, look at the really low cost producers with really big resources with a history of low finding costs. He would prefer to look at something like Peyto (PEY-T), a very low cost deep basin producer. Stock is producing the way it should. Or you could look at Vermilion (VET-T), although it is oil and gas, but pays a 4.5% yield.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 27, 2013

(Top Pick Jul. 19/12, Down 2.76%) Only junior left in the area but not convinced on the timetable for an ultimate take-out.

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(Top Pick Jul. 19/12, Down 2.76%) Only junior left in the area but not convinced on the timetable for an ultimate take-out.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 20, 2013

(Market Call Minute.) Thinks there is a very large institutional seller that is weighing on the name. Once they are cleared this should go up. Nothing fundamental has changed on the company. Very healthy balance sheet.

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(Market Call Minute.) Thinks there is a very large institutional seller that is weighing on the name. Once they are cleared this should go up. Nothing fundamental has changed on the company. Very healthy balance sheet.

HOLD
HOLD
May 14, 2013

She has owned this for a while. It may be a takeover in the next 3=5 years or sooner. It is a good conservative management team which has built up a good parcel of land and will be rewarded for it.

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She has owned this for a while. It may be a takeover in the next 3=5 years or sooner. It is a good conservative management team which has built up a good parcel of land and will be rewarded for it.

HOLD
HOLD
April 17, 2013

Company thinks they can essentially quintuple production over the next 5 years using internally generated cash flow. Management has done a fantastic job of aggregating Montney acreage in exactly the right postal code. West coast LNG is a longer-term theme. Pegging a theme on a takeout is absolutely impossible so they are maintaining a strong enough balance sheet so that a takeout is not a necessary end.

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Company thinks they can essentially quintuple production over the next 5 years using internally generated cash flow. Management has done a fantastic job of aggregating Montney acreage in exactly the right postal code. West coast LNG is a longer-term theme. Pegging a theme on a takeout is absolutely impossible so they are maintaining a strong enough balance sheet so that a takeout is not a necessary end.

BUY
BUY
April 11, 2013

(Market Call Minute) Considering exposure to Nat Gas and location and the movement to LNG, it is a buy.

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(Market Call Minute) Considering exposure to Nat Gas and location and the movement to LNG, it is a buy.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 5, 2013

The trend is down and has been for a while. It is the case with a lot of oils. We look at comparative relative strength. If it was not doing well when the market was going up, what do you expect it to do when the market is correcting.

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The trend is down and has been for a while. It is the case with a lot of oils. We look at comparative relative strength. If it was not doing well when the market was going up, what do you expect it to do when the market is correcting.

BUY
BUY
March 4, 2013

Takeover rumours are still alive. Right now though, many companies are not been rewarded for growth so why bother growing through acquisition. You actually may be waiting a little while but feels this name is not bad.

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Takeover rumours are still alive. Right now though, many companies are not been rewarded for growth so why bother growing through acquisition. You actually may be waiting a little while but feels this name is not bad.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 11, 2013

(A Top Pick Jan 24/12. Up 18.89%.) Has done well because they are sitting in the right place. Acreage is immediately offsetting many of the West Coast LNG facilities. There are multiple possible buyers. You will have to be patient because timing M&A is virtually impossible. Sees 50% or more upside from current prices.

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(A Top Pick Jan 24/12. Up 18.89%.) Has done well because they are sitting in the right place. Acreage is immediately offsetting many of the West Coast LNG facilities. There are multiple possible buyers. You will have to be patient because timing M&A is virtually impossible. Sees 50% or more upside from current prices.

BUY
BUY
January 15, 2013

Widely rumoured as a takeover candidate. Well managed and has a good resource base. Relatively solid balance sheet. Good production growth. Good management.

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Widely rumoured as a takeover candidate. Well managed and has a good resource base. Relatively solid balance sheet. Good production growth. Good management.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 9, 2013

(A Top Pick Jan 24/12. Up 19.35%.) One of the more obvious takeout candidates, hopefully this year. Did a $170 million financing in December and bought some assets that was directly opposite their existing properties.

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(A Top Pick Jan 24/12. Up 19.35%.) One of the more obvious takeout candidates, hopefully this year. Did a $170 million financing in December and bought some assets that was directly opposite their existing properties.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 2, 2013

Has been an absolute stellar performer. Success started in the Saskatchewan oil plays and has now migrated up into Northeast BC. Market pays full value for this company as it sits today. To own it today you want to have comfort in the Northeast BC Montney gas potential that exists in the company. Good management.

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Has been an absolute stellar performer. Success started in the Saskatchewan oil plays and has now migrated up into Northeast BC. Market pays full value for this company as it sits today. To own it today you want to have comfort in the Northeast BC Montney gas potential that exists in the company. Good management.

BUY
BUY
December 27, 2012

Company has always done fairly well operationally and with cash flow generation. Great land package. Somewhat disappointed that they did a recent financing of about $170 million. Tough environment for gas companies, which is their main focus. $13-$14 could be a reasonable target.

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Company has always done fairly well operationally and with cash flow generation. Great land package. Somewhat disappointed that they did a recent financing of about $170 million. Tough environment for gas companies, which is their main focus. $13-$14 could be a reasonable target.

BUY
BUY
December 7, 2012

With the takeover of Progress Energy (PRQ-T), Monday is going to be a great day for this stock. This is clearly about West Coast LNG, which is a huge theme going forward for Canada. This stock is the next most logical takeout candidate to provide feedstock for one of the eventual terminals that is going to be built. It’s not a question of “if” but “when” and 2013 could be that time period. Just acquired the Kobes assets from Crew Energy (CR-T). Believes this will move upward in the high teens to $20.

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With the takeover of Progress Energy (PRQ-T), Monday is going to be a great day for this stock. This is clearly about West Coast LNG, which is a huge theme going forward for Canada. This stock is the next most logical takeout candidate to provide feedstock for one of the eventual terminals that is going to be built. It’s not a question of “if” but “when” and 2013 could be that time period. Just acquired the Kobes assets from Crew Energy (CR-T). Believes this will move upward in the high teens to $20.

HOLD
HOLD
November 13, 2012

Had a short position and has covered that. He is neutral on the name; believes it is a take-over candidate.

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Had a short position and has covered that. He is neutral on the name; believes it is a take-over candidate.

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