Painted Pony Energy

PONY-T

Analysis and Opinions about PONY-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2015

Very well-run with very modest financial leverage. They are Northeast BC Montney gas with access to pipelines. The well performance they have exhibited in the last couple of years has gotten better and better. He would put this on a short list of gas companies to own if you are going to be constructive on gas, which he is not.

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Very well-run with very modest financial leverage. They are Northeast BC Montney gas with access to pipelines. The well performance they have exhibited in the last couple of years has gotten better and better. He would put this on a short list of gas companies to own if you are going to be constructive on gas, which he is not.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 30, 2015

They are highly dependent on Nat. gas prices. They just went ahead and financed so they can affect their growth and reduced their CapX until there is a turnaround in Nat. gas prices. They have good partners to fulfill the infrastructure they need.

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They are highly dependent on Nat. gas prices. They just went ahead and financed so they can affect their growth and reduced their CapX until there is a turnaround in Nat. gas prices. They have good partners to fulfill the infrastructure they need.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 17, 2015

It has been bouncing along its book value. It is here for the third time in the last year. It is cheap and may bounce. Up until this time there were earnings and market value but that has disappeared. The driver for this company is not there anymore. If this price level does not hold then get out.

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It has been bouncing along its book value. It is here for the third time in the last year. It is cheap and may bounce. Up until this time there were earnings and market value but that has disappeared. The driver for this company is not there anymore. If this price level does not hold then get out.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 7, 2015

(A Top Pick Feb 12/14. Up 17.36%) Have an excellent asset base in the Montney, right in the middle of everything. If a bigger enterprise wants to come in and get a big asset base, this company is probably a great selection. Their results are spectacular. Getting way better results on their drilling activity than they had even budgeted. Have a monster land base. Still likes the stock.

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(A Top Pick Feb 12/14. Up 17.36%) Have an excellent asset base in the Montney, right in the middle of everything. If a bigger enterprise wants to come in and get a big asset base, this company is probably a great selection. Their results are spectacular. Getting way better results on their drilling activity than they had even budgeted. Have a monster land base. Still likes the stock.

HOLD
HOLD
January 6, 2015

It shows lows at around $6 and he doesn’t think they are going to be violated. He wouldn’t add to this, but would continue to Hold.

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It shows lows at around $6 and he doesn’t think they are going to be violated. He wouldn’t add to this, but would continue to Hold.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2015

Mostly natural gas. The upside will be coming from leverage to natural gas exports. This has been long rumoured to be a take over candidate for anybody who needs gas supply in Northeast BC, which is entirely possible. Well-managed. Has a really good asset base, but because of that it is trading at pretty high multiples. Whether you buy this or not depends on your outlook for Canadian natural gas.

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Mostly natural gas. The upside will be coming from leverage to natural gas exports. This has been long rumoured to be a take over candidate for anybody who needs gas supply in Northeast BC, which is entirely possible. Well-managed. Has a really good asset base, but because of that it is trading at pretty high multiples. Whether you buy this or not depends on your outlook for Canadian natural gas.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 22, 2014

(A Top Pick Dec 27/13. Up 45.81%.) Thought this was the best pure play. Very levered in the future to LNG, which at the time he thought was going to gain some steam, but he is not so sure about that, so exited the position. Prefers others now.

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(A Top Pick Dec 27/13. Up 45.81%.) Thought this was the best pure play. Very levered in the future to LNG, which at the time he thought was going to gain some steam, but he is not so sure about that, so exited the position. Prefers others now.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
December 15, 2014

Probably a very aggressive play. A great balance sheet. They increased production. Great management. You really need to know that this is a very aggressive play and perhaps you should be more defensive in this area. As long as you are aware it is very aggressive.

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Probably a very aggressive play. A great balance sheet. They increased production. Great management. You really need to know that this is a very aggressive play and perhaps you should be more defensive in this area. As long as you are aware it is very aggressive.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 11, 2014

Fastest growing rate of growth in the sector. They are 90% natural gas. Zero debt. There is a bit of a takeover premium because of the selloff.

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Fastest growing rate of growth in the sector. They are 90% natural gas. Zero debt. There is a bit of a takeover premium because of the selloff.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 10, 2014

One of many he has on his radar list of those he thinks would be attractive. Wants to see things settle out in the energy sector. From a natural gas standpoint, this is one of the names he would be looking at to add to. Have continued to increase production with fairly good production costs. With the real estate they own, there is a lot of area for them to drill and increase production. Any take out would probably happen on an LNG announcement.

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One of many he has on his radar list of those he thinks would be attractive. Wants to see things settle out in the energy sector. From a natural gas standpoint, this is one of the names he would be looking at to add to. Have continued to increase production with fairly good production costs. With the real estate they own, there is a lot of area for them to drill and increase production. Any take out would probably happen on an LNG announcement.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 23, 2014

(Market Call Minute.) Positioned in the Montne play and should do well.

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
September 23, 2014

(Market Call Minute.) Positioned in the Montne play and should do well.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 16, 2014

They have amassed a significant resource in North-Eastern BC, which is right in the fairway where all the pipelines go. It can go north, south, west and east. They have enormous reserves. Getting those reserves out of the ground is going to require that an LNG facility is going to be built. They have signed an agreement with AltaGas (ALA-T) to do some processing. He doesn’t know if investors are going to have much patience waiting for an LNG facility to get built. This won’t happen until at least 2020. A much more sensible place to build an LNG facility is not in BC, but in Oregon which has a better port facility.

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
September 16, 2014

They have amassed a significant resource in North-Eastern BC, which is right in the fairway where all the pipelines go. It can go north, south, west and east. They have enormous reserves. Getting those reserves out of the ground is going to require that an LNG facility is going to be built. They have signed an agreement with AltaGas (ALA-T) to do some processing. He doesn’t know if investors are going to have much patience waiting for an LNG facility to get built. This won’t happen until at least 2020. A much more sensible place to build an LNG facility is not in BC, but in Oregon which has a better port facility.

HOLD
HOLD
August 25, 2014

Entered into an arrangement with Alta Gas. Alta Gas is building a facility that will ramp up PPY-T’s production like mad, but they are going to charge a toll and he does not know what that is. This arrangement frees up $300 Million of Cap-X that PPY-T would have had to spend. Through new fracking, they are increasing productivity by 50% with no incremental cost. You are paying a premium multiple so he would prefer other names unless you are willing to look out 3 years.

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Entered into an arrangement with Alta Gas. Alta Gas is building a facility that will ramp up PPY-T’s production like mad, but they are going to charge a toll and he does not know what that is. This arrangement frees up $300 Million of Cap-X that PPY-T would have had to spend. Through new fracking, they are increasing productivity by 50% with no incremental cost. You are paying a premium multiple so he would prefer other names unless you are willing to look out 3 years.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 25, 2014

(Market Call Minute.) Trading at a premium multiple. They divested their oil assets to step on the accelerator in their Montney results, which are getting better and better. Prefers others.

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(Market Call Minute.) Trading at a premium multiple. They divested their oil assets to step on the accelerator in their Montney results, which are getting better and better. Prefers others.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 16, 2014

Feels there is still a ton more upside. Recently sold the genesis of the company, oily assets in Saskatchewan, to focus on the Montney play in Northeast BC. Montney offers some of the best economics in the Western Canadian basin, and this company has a significant land base there to take advantage of it. Originally budgeted about 20-21 wells this year, and they are going to be able to double that with the sale of the Saskatchewan assets. They are in the way of the big guys. Somebody is going to want to own those assets once they develop a little further. If they choose to develop them fully by themselves, they will get the cash flows and production levels that will impress the market.

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Feels there is still a ton more upside. Recently sold the genesis of the company, oily assets in Saskatchewan, to focus on the Montney play in Northeast BC. Montney offers some of the best economics in the Western Canadian basin, and this company has a significant land base there to take advantage of it. Originally budgeted about 20-21 wells this year, and they are going to be able to double that with the sale of the Saskatchewan assets. They are in the way of the big guys. Somebody is going to want to own those assets once they develop a little further. If they choose to develop them fully by themselves, they will get the cash flows and production levels that will impress the market.

BUY
BUY
July 16, 2014

Recently added more to her holdings. Thinks you will see the stock probably approach $20 in the next 2-3 years.

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Recently added more to her holdings. Thinks you will see the stock probably approach $20 in the next 2-3 years.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 9, 2014

(Market Call Minute) Prefers other gas names, although they did a good job of improving well results but given the premium they trade at he would avoid it.

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(Market Call Minute) Prefers other gas names, although they did a good job of improving well results but given the premium they trade at he would avoid it.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 8, 2014

Admired the progress they have made over the past few years. Expanded their production considerably. Seem to be very efficient operators and very, very good buyers of assets. He is constantly looking at this and it is one that he could certainly be buying in the near future. Could be a takeout candidate.

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Admired the progress they have made over the past few years. Expanded their production considerably. Seem to be very efficient operators and very, very good buyers of assets. He is constantly looking at this and it is one that he could certainly be buying in the near future. Could be a takeout candidate.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 24, 2014

Not a balanced production profile. You would be owning it for a contiguous block of Montney with pipeline access. Ultimately if LNG gets up and running this will be a very coveted asset.

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Not a balanced production profile. You would be owning it for a contiguous block of Montney with pipeline access. Ultimately if LNG gets up and running this will be a very coveted asset.

HOLD
HOLD
April 17, 2014

Had a huge run off the lows. They might sell an asset to fund a build out. Sees strength continuing for Nat Gas price.

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Had a huge run off the lows. They might sell an asset to fund a build out. Sees strength continuing for Nat Gas price.

BUY
BUY
April 11, 2014

LNG basket. If and when LNG projects start rolling, getting through the barriers, you will find these companies will make sure there is enough production to fill these facilities. You have to have a portfolio approach.

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LNG basket. If and when LNG projects start rolling, getting through the barriers, you will find these companies will make sure there is enough production to fill these facilities. You have to have a portfolio approach.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 18, 2014

Well liked by the Street, but the correlation between the price performance and the streets love affair has not been that good. He would be concerned about it. Feels the stock is overliked and probably overowned. Natural gas has made a big run, but this one has not kept up with its peers. Doesn’t see any upside and there are probably better places to be.

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Well liked by the Street, but the correlation between the price performance and the streets love affair has not been that good. He would be concerned about it. Feels the stock is overliked and probably overowned. Natural gas has made a big run, but this one has not kept up with its peers. Doesn’t see any upside and there are probably better places to be.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 11, 2014

Delphi Energy (DEE-T) or Painted Pony (PPY-T)? Doesn’t own either. In terms of natural gas names, he is looking at them potentially having weakness so he wants greater liquidity, meaning larger market as opposed to small caps. Both of these are very good companies. On this one, the key difference is the liquids content of the wells, the amount of condensate and fluids that come along with production making better economics.

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Delphi Energy (DEE-T) or Painted Pony (PPY-T)? Doesn’t own either. In terms of natural gas names, he is looking at them potentially having weakness so he wants greater liquidity, meaning larger market as opposed to small caps. Both of these are very good companies. On this one, the key difference is the liquids content of the wells, the amount of condensate and fluids that come along with production making better economics.

BUY
BUY
February 20, 2014

1000 barrels a day of cash flow. They have a lot of property right over a pipeline so are an obvious takeout target. He would put it in the top 3 or 4 names that are likely to go.

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1000 barrels a day of cash flow. They have a lot of property right over a pipeline so are an obvious takeout target. He would put it in the top 3 or 4 names that are likely to go.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 12, 2014

Had some great operating success, but fell from grace because it wasn’t a target. Operations within the company have only gotten better. 48 wells in the Montne oil play. Their acreage is in an interesting spot, the royalty reduced free zone. They get a bigger credit for drilling deep wells than they would further to the south. The inventory on their own land is somewhere in the order of 1800 wells possible. He sees a $14-$15 price with a little bit of further LNG development.

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Had some great operating success, but fell from grace because it wasn’t a target. Operations within the company have only gotten better. 48 wells in the Montne oil play. Their acreage is in an interesting spot, the royalty reduced free zone. They get a bigger credit for drilling deep wells than they would further to the south. The inventory on their own land is somewhere in the order of 1800 wells possible. He sees a $14-$15 price with a little bit of further LNG development.

BUY
BUY
February 4, 2014

Really liked this company last year. Well managed company with lots of gas exposure. For some reason, late last year, it started to drop like a rock and then reversed and went back up again. Balance sheet is great, growth rate looks good and management is good. He would put this one in the top 5 of names to own in this sector.

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Really liked this company last year. Well managed company with lots of gas exposure. For some reason, late last year, it started to drop like a rock and then reversed and went back up again. Balance sheet is great, growth rate looks good and management is good. He would put this one in the top 5 of names to own in this sector.

BUY
BUY
January 30, 2014

(Market Call Minute) Great company and exposure to LNG.

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(Market Call Minute) Great company and exposure to LNG.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 13, 2014

(Market Call Minute.) Doesn’t own only because prospects for natural gas as well as M&A in Northeast BC isn’t as likely as he had thought.

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(Market Call Minute.) Doesn’t own only because prospects for natural gas as well as M&A in Northeast BC isn’t as likely as he had thought.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2014

Primarily into natural gas/natural gas liquids in the Montney zone. Have a lot of extra reserves that they found and are having difficulty in getting these moved into the marketplace. Have about 3000 barrels a day trapped waiting to find facilities to process natural gas. Good exposure to natural gas prices. He would prefer other places for natural gas exposure. (See Top Picks.)

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Primarily into natural gas/natural gas liquids in the Montney zone. Have a lot of extra reserves that they found and are having difficulty in getting these moved into the marketplace. Have about 3000 barrels a day trapped waiting to find facilities to process natural gas. Good exposure to natural gas prices. He would prefer other places for natural gas exposure. (See Top Picks.)

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 27, 2013

Thinks they have the single best resource upside per share in the Montney. Even looking at just their PDP plus the land value, you are easily getting $9-$10 a share. Very conservative and haven’t taken on a lot of debt so there is lots of room on the balance sheet to fund growth on a go forward basis. Because of their huge resource, as gas prices start to increase and the LNG theme start to dominate, this has the most upside of any name.

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Thinks they have the single best resource upside per share in the Montney. Even looking at just their PDP plus the land value, you are easily getting $9-$10 a share. Very conservative and haven’t taken on a lot of debt so there is lots of room on the balance sheet to fund growth on a go forward basis. Because of their huge resource, as gas prices start to increase and the LNG theme start to dominate, this has the most upside of any name.

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