Painted Pony Energy

PONY-T

Analysis and Opinions about PONY-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 7, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) A good way to play a stronger natural gas price in the upcoming winter, $9-$10.

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(Market Call Minute.) A good way to play a stronger natural gas price in the upcoming winter, $9-$10.

BUY
BUY
September 29, 2016

He was involved many years ago. He met with manage recently. They are more of a land grab. He likes the management team, but prefers other names. He likes the story and thinks you will do well by it.

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
September 29, 2016

He was involved many years ago. He met with manage recently. They are more of a land grab. He likes the management team, but prefers other names. He likes the story and thinks you will do well by it.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 19, 2016

He is bullish on Nat Gas. Management is proven. 4th largest reserve of all publically traded companies. You had the first draw down in Nat Gas since 2006 last month. You just need a normal winter.

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
September 19, 2016

He is bullish on Nat Gas. Management is proven. 4th largest reserve of all publically traded companies. You had the first draw down in Nat Gas since 2006 last month. You just need a normal winter.

SELL
SELL
August 30, 2016

Really doesn’t see any strong catalyst short of a sale for this name. It is hard to see how it is going to continue to go up in a sideways oil tape. It has had an okay run of late, and you could certainly lighten up. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with it, but doesn’t see any reason why you should be there.

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Really doesn’t see any strong catalyst short of a sale for this name. It is hard to see how it is going to continue to go up in a sideways oil tape. It has had an okay run of late, and you could certainly lighten up. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with it, but doesn’t see any reason why you should be there.

BUY
BUY
August 24, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) An extremely well-run company.

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(Market Call Minute.) An extremely well-run company.

BUY
BUY
August 15, 2016

(Market Call Minute) Their production is going to go to about 40k barrels up from 16k.

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(Market Call Minute) Their production is going to go to about 40k barrels up from 16k.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 9, 2016

A natural gas producer, and one of the fastest-growing ones. They have gone from producing 5,000-10,000 barrels a day, to almost 40,000 by the end of this year. Have had huge growth and have used some leverage to achieve that, but gas prices are really, really strong this summer. The natural gas market needed that demand in order to have a storage reset, and it looks like we are getting one. Because of that, this company’s leverage metrics look a lot better, and can actually keep growing from 40,000 barrels a day onwards.

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A natural gas producer, and one of the fastest-growing ones. They have gone from producing 5,000-10,000 barrels a day, to almost 40,000 by the end of this year. Have had huge growth and have used some leverage to achieve that, but gas prices are really, really strong this summer. The natural gas market needed that demand in order to have a storage reset, and it looks like we are getting one. Because of that, this company’s leverage metrics look a lot better, and can actually keep growing from 40,000 barrels a day onwards.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2016

Had concerns earlier this year on the logistics of incremental pipe being laid down to accommodate the growth that the company has. They have a very ambitious growth plan. This year, debt peaks out at maybe 2.8X debt to cash flow, and goes down steadily after that as incremental volumes start to be realized. Have done a fantastic job in every year of getting better and better at drilling wells in Northeast BC. A long-term Hold if you are constructive on gas.

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Had concerns earlier this year on the logistics of incremental pipe being laid down to accommodate the growth that the company has. They have a very ambitious growth plan. This year, debt peaks out at maybe 2.8X debt to cash flow, and goes down steadily after that as incremental volumes start to be realized. Have done a fantastic job in every year of getting better and better at drilling wells in Northeast BC. A long-term Hold if you are constructive on gas.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 31, 2016

One of the highest growth names you will find this year and into 2017. They are in the Northeast BC Montney fairway. This is a story of building facilities and filling them. Going to go from about 16,000 barrels of oil equivalent to 40,000 by year end, because the plant is going to be on stream. It is on time and relatively on budget. They will then look for the next phase, which ultimately could be 60,000-70,000 barrels by the end of next year. Well hedged for this year. Expects they will be self-sustaining as they get towards the 2nd half of 2017. Will probably be adding a little more to his holdings.

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One of the highest growth names you will find this year and into 2017. They are in the Northeast BC Montney fairway. This is a story of building facilities and filling them. Going to go from about 16,000 barrels of oil equivalent to 40,000 by year end, because the plant is going to be on stream. It is on time and relatively on budget. They will then look for the next phase, which ultimately could be 60,000-70,000 barrels by the end of next year. Well hedged for this year. Expects they will be self-sustaining as they get towards the 2nd half of 2017. Will probably be adding a little more to his holdings.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 30, 2016

He does not know the company. Looking at a 5 year chart he feels oil will not go much above $50. He would not play it from the long side. If you like them then you are a dip buyer close to $5.

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He does not know the company. Looking at a 5 year chart he feels oil will not go much above $50. He would not play it from the long side. If you like them then you are a dip buyer close to $5.

BUY
BUY
May 12, 2016

It is a gas play. His in house analyst really likes it. It is doing well. Most are not. PPY-T has a large play where if gas prices come back they will do well. It is one of the better natural gas play in Canada.

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It is a gas play. His in house analyst really likes it. It is doing well. Most are not. PPY-T has a large play where if gas prices come back they will do well. It is one of the better natural gas play in Canada.

BUY
BUY
April 11, 2016

(Market Call Minute) A challenged business, but if LNG takes off then they have a strong position in that.

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(Market Call Minute) A challenged business, but if LNG takes off then they have a strong position in that.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2016

The entire group is weak because of downward revisions in Nat Gas price predictions. Demand has not grown. Industry has not kept up with pipelines. Producers have a constraint from this. They are hedged at 61% for the remainder of the year.

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The entire group is weak because of downward revisions in Nat Gas price predictions. Demand has not grown. Industry has not kept up with pipelines. Producers have a constraint from this. They are hedged at 61% for the remainder of the year.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 6, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) A natural gas developer and producer. Stock is cheap on a Price to Book value. They are not going to be cash flowing a whole lot at these prices. However, price momentum is starting to turn in the whole sector. They are cheap enough on a BV basis and might be one to take a look at.

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(Market Call Minute.) A natural gas developer and producer. Stock is cheap on a Price to Book value. They are not going to be cash flowing a whole lot at these prices. However, price momentum is starting to turn in the whole sector. They are cheap enough on a BV basis and might be one to take a look at.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 14, 2016

They have the 4th largest Nat gas reserves of publicly traded companies. It is a junior company with a senior asset. They can increase production from 16k to 40k units. Natural gas might have a run this winter.

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They have the 4th largest Nat gas reserves of publicly traded companies. It is a junior company with a senior asset. They can increase production from 16k to 40k units. Natural gas might have a run this winter.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 5, 2016

Chart shows a long downward run from June, leveling off in December. It is now going up, but you are going to have to have tight Stops on it in order to control your risks.

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Chart shows a long downward run from June, leveling off in December. It is now going up, but you are going to have to have tight Stops on it in order to control your risks.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 31, 2015

Up until the end of 2016, they sell a lot of their natural gas through an area called Station 2. This is a hub where there has been a huge increase in gas production, so there are times when Station 2 was below $1. That has recovered somewhat, but is still weak. Fortunately they have 43% hedged next year at $3. Has a deal with Altagas (ALA-T), where Altagas now owns 75%. They are helping to fund the plant that will increase take away capacity. In his mind this could be a $4-$5 stock next year. Not a long-term trade in his mind.

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Up until the end of 2016, they sell a lot of their natural gas through an area called Station 2. This is a hub where there has been a huge increase in gas production, so there are times when Station 2 was below $1. That has recovered somewhat, but is still weak. Fortunately they have 43% hedged next year at $3. Has a deal with Altagas (ALA-T), where Altagas now owns 75%. They are helping to fund the plant that will increase take away capacity. In his mind this could be a $4-$5 stock next year. Not a long-term trade in his mind.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 14, 2015

(Top Pick Dec 11/14, Down 66.91%) The 7th largest natural gas reserves. They just aren’t making the list. They will increase production several fold next year. It is just a matter of time for the production to ramp up.

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(Top Pick Dec 11/14, Down 66.91%) The 7th largest natural gas reserves. They just aren’t making the list. They will increase production several fold next year. It is just a matter of time for the production to ramp up.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 7, 2015

Gas producer. Gas has been under pressure since ’09. They will continue to be under pressure. Canada may miss its opportunity in LNG. It will be a great market in 3 years.

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Gas producer. Gas has been under pressure since ’09. They will continue to be under pressure. Canada may miss its opportunity in LNG. It will be a great market in 3 years.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 1, 2015

Natural gas has to go to the West Coast. Prefers Tourmaline (TOU-T) because of cost, efficiency, etc. This is a great company; it’s just that there are other companies that look slightly better.

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Natural gas has to go to the West Coast. Prefers Tourmaline (TOU-T) because of cost, efficiency, etc. This is a great company; it’s just that there are other companies that look slightly better.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
November 13, 2015

A very well-managed company, but 90% natural gas. Their balance sheet is not too bad. Thinks they will be a survivor. He would be tempted to buy some at these levels, because it is a higher risk/reward, but wouldn’t put all his eggs in this basket.

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A very well-managed company, but 90% natural gas. Their balance sheet is not too bad. Thinks they will be a survivor. He would be tempted to buy some at these levels, because it is a higher risk/reward, but wouldn’t put all his eggs in this basket.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 11, 2015

Has a great sensitivity to natural gas. The operating cost structure is in good shape. There have been some excellent processing plants that have been joint ventured with Altagas (ALA-T) that allow them to get this gas on stream. There will be a big change on his valuation and perception, it we go ahead on an LNG project on the West Coast. He likes the company. Has been hit by heavy, relentless foreign selling, but has heard that the Shorts are finished and some of them are covering.

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Has a great sensitivity to natural gas. The operating cost structure is in good shape. There have been some excellent processing plants that have been joint ventured with Altagas (ALA-T) that allow them to get this gas on stream. There will be a big change on his valuation and perception, it we go ahead on an LNG project on the West Coast. He likes the company. Has been hit by heavy, relentless foreign selling, but has heard that the Shorts are finished and some of them are covering.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 27, 2015

Oil and gas is a great sector to invest in as a contrarian, if you can find the right ponies to play. Thinks this has lost money 3 years in a row. Their share count has just about doubled in the past number of years. They have a number of problems they have to deal with in terms of oil/gas prices. Thinks it has a lot of upside, but at this point in time it is premature to invest.

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Oil and gas is a great sector to invest in as a contrarian, if you can find the right ponies to play. Thinks this has lost money 3 years in a row. Their share count has just about doubled in the past number of years. They have a number of problems they have to deal with in terms of oil/gas prices. Thinks it has a lot of upside, but at this point in time it is premature to invest.

WATCH
WATCH
October 9, 2015

There is a lot of short covering. Prices of the products they are producing are going higher too. We are at the 200 day and this is critical. Until we can exceed this, we don’t know which way it will go. A longer term trend line is still in effect. If you think the US dollar is going to rise, then you want to stay away from this one because all their inputs are in US dollars. It is not in the period of seasonal strength. He would not pursue it here.

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There is a lot of short covering. Prices of the products they are producing are going higher too. We are at the 200 day and this is critical. Until we can exceed this, we don’t know which way it will go. A longer term trend line is still in effect. If you think the US dollar is going to rise, then you want to stay away from this one because all their inputs are in US dollars. It is not in the period of seasonal strength. He would not pursue it here.

STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
October 7, 2015

He partially sold when it rallied some months ago. They are delivering on their promise. The question is what is going to happen with the LNG in BC. One of those projects is bound to go and they are positioned to deliver Nat gas to those projects. He very much likes the stock at today’s prices.

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He partially sold when it rallied some months ago. They are delivering on their promise. The question is what is going to happen with the LNG in BC. One of those projects is bound to go and they are positioned to deliver Nat gas to those projects. He very much likes the stock at today’s prices.

WATCH
WATCH
June 8, 2015

He likes the company. The stock is more expensive relative to others. Between now and 2016 you are left to the sentiment about Nat Gas and LNG. He sees significant headwinds. He does not know if first nations will buy into their project so it can go ahead. He would start picking away on a 10% pull back. Hold if you have it.

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He likes the company. The stock is more expensive relative to others. Between now and 2016 you are left to the sentiment about Nat Gas and LNG. He sees significant headwinds. He does not know if first nations will buy into their project so it can go ahead. He would start picking away on a 10% pull back. Hold if you have it.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 27, 2015

(A Top Pick July 16/14. Down 35.05%.) Altagas (ALA-T) made an investment in the Company, which gave them access to a gas plant that will be built in 2016. This will take their production from 16,000 BOE to 40,000 BOE in the next 18 months to 2 years. That is a huge lift. With Altagas, they don’t need the LNG play to move their gas to market. They make about a 15% return at $2.40 of MCF.

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(A Top Pick July 16/14. Down 35.05%.) Altagas (ALA-T) made an investment in the Company, which gave them access to a gas plant that will be built in 2016. This will take their production from 16,000 BOE to 40,000 BOE in the next 18 months to 2 years. That is a huge lift. With Altagas, they don’t need the LNG play to move their gas to market. They make about a 15% return at $2.40 of MCF.

HOLD
HOLD
May 6, 2015

Overall a decent company. Have some good properties, particularly in northeast British Columbia. At some point it is potentially a takeover target, but at this point it is truly a Hold. He doesn’t see any obvious catalysts for this name in the short run.

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Overall a decent company. Have some good properties, particularly in northeast British Columbia. At some point it is potentially a takeover target, but at this point it is truly a Hold. He doesn’t see any obvious catalysts for this name in the short run.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 8, 2015

This will eventually be taken over when someone actually builds an LNG project, which might be 7 years from now. If you have a five-year horizon, you will probably make money, but in the meantime, you are just going to go sideways until there is a movement in energy. Be prepared to hold it for 6-8 months and you might get a nice rally. Not a bad entry point.

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This will eventually be taken over when someone actually builds an LNG project, which might be 7 years from now. If you have a five-year horizon, you will probably make money, but in the meantime, you are just going to go sideways until there is a movement in energy. Be prepared to hold it for 6-8 months and you might get a nice rally. Not a bad entry point.

SELL
SELL
April 2, 2015

We have these lows from 2011 to 2014 and the peaks, but it ends in a catastrophic drop and that says there is something going wrong in this company. Don’t bottom fish.

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We have these lows from 2011 to 2014 and the peaks, but it ends in a catastrophic drop and that says there is something going wrong in this company. Don’t bottom fish.

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