Painted Pony Energy

PONY-T

Analysis and Opinions about PONY-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
HOLD
HOLD
September 28, 2018

This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast. It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it. It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
September 28, 2018

This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast. It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it. It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 7, 2018

Tourmaline versus Painted Pony. TOU-T is a $5.8 billion company with 22% liquids, moving towards 40% liquids production soon. PONY-T market cap is $438 million. These are apples to oranges. He lies both companies, however, and both are on his recommended list. If we see a further market erosion with tax loss season approaching in November or December, both will likely become a strong buy.

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Tourmaline versus Painted Pony. TOU-T is a $5.8 billion company with 22% liquids, moving towards 40% liquids production soon. PONY-T market cap is $438 million. These are apples to oranges. He lies both companies, however, and both are on his recommended list. If we see a further market erosion with tax loss season approaching in November or December, both will likely become a strong buy.

Josef Schachter
Price
$2.580
Owned
_N/A
HOLD
HOLD
August 24, 2018

It has dropped and is attempting to consolidate. It is in a cup formation. If it breaks its old lid, it may break out. If own, you may want to hold, but would not buy until a break out is confirmed.

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It has dropped and is attempting to consolidate. It is in a cup formation. If it breaks its old lid, it may break out. If own, you may want to hold, but would not buy until a break out is confirmed.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 13, 2018

Their debt is not a problem. Book value is $6.47. Would be a buy if the stock price went to the low $2.00 range. This is a stock you want to own for the long term. When gas comes back into favour, Painted Pony is one of the go to names.

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Their debt is not a problem. Book value is $6.47. Would be a buy if the stock price went to the low $2.00 range. This is a stock you want to own for the long term. When gas comes back into favour, Painted Pony is one of the go to names.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 8, 2018

The chart looks good at the moment. This has formed a double bottom around $1.70 and has been trading steadily higher. This is a good bargain potentially and has moved through resistance around $3. As long as energy prices continue to do well, it could rally by another $0.50 with $2.60 as key support.

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The chart looks good at the moment. This has formed a double bottom around $1.70 and has been trading steadily higher. This is a good bargain potentially and has moved through resistance around $3. As long as energy prices continue to do well, it could rally by another $0.50 with $2.60 as key support.

BUY
BUY
July 16, 2018

They have a lot of debt but you have to look at the equity. They are about 9% liquids and 91% natural gas. Their stock popped last week because they announced on two wells. They are now finding more liquid rich opportunities. It is one of the names he likes. He projects $6 within a year. He feels the bargains are in the natural gas side.

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They have a lot of debt but you have to look at the equity. They are about 9% liquids and 91% natural gas. Their stock popped last week because they announced on two wells. They are now finding more liquid rich opportunities. It is one of the names he likes. He projects $6 within a year. He feels the bargains are in the natural gas side.

Josef Schachter
Price
$2.750
Owned
Unknown
HOLD
HOLD
July 9, 2018

It was in a down trend but the worst may be over. Don't buy in the middle of a consolidation. Buy on a positive breakout. If you hold it then see what happens.

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It was in a down trend but the worst may be over. Don't buy in the middle of a consolidation. Buy on a positive breakout. If you hold it then see what happens.

Keith Richards
Price
$2.480
Owned
Unknown
BUY
BUY
June 18, 2018

People criticize it for their debt. They are only 33% debt to capital position. He thinks it is an attractive story. His target is $3.06 this year. They are 96% gas. If LNG comes on line, it will need gas. Under $2 PONY-X will be a great buy.

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People criticize it for their debt. They are only 33% debt to capital position. He thinks it is an attractive story. His target is $3.06 this year. They are 96% gas. If LNG comes on line, it will need gas. Under $2 PONY-X will be a great buy.

Josef Schachter
Price
$2.180
Owned
Unknown
HOLD
HOLD
May 4, 2018

This is a great way to play new LNG development. If you own it, ride it into the Shell decision to go ahead with LNG. With the right asset sale they could dramatically improve their debt-cash flow metrics, so that could make him more bullish eventually.

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This is a great way to play new LNG development. If you own it, ride it into the Shell decision to go ahead with LNG. With the right asset sale they could dramatically improve their debt-cash flow metrics, so that could make him more bullish eventually.

Eric Nuttall
Price
$2.620
Owned
No
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
April 30, 2018

Maybe it is a good takeout candidate. This is an example of a name that is lagging the commodity. It says you should be a little careful. It is more of a trade here. $7 may be the upper limit. Take profits when you can.

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Maybe it is a good takeout candidate. This is an example of a name that is lagging the commodity. It says you should be a little careful. It is more of a trade here. $7 may be the upper limit. Take profits when you can.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 17, 2018

They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.

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They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.

Eric Nuttall
Price
$2.180
Owned
No
BUY
BUY
April 16, 2018

He admires the company. He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting. It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch. We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.

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He admires the company. He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting. It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch. We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 6, 2018

Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices. He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better.

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Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices. He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better.

Peter Imhof
Price
$2.410
Owned
No
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
April 3, 2018

He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him.

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He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 3, 2018

He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.

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He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.

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