Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T) Stock Predictions - Stockchase
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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Dec 2007

oil/gas

Painted Pony Energy

PONY-T

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T) SAVE Mar, 25, 2019, 10:37 am

1.89 0.08 (4.06%)

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Signal Opinion Expert
DON'T BUY

They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.

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They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.

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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$2.180
Owned Owned
No

BUY

He admires the company.  He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting.  It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch.  We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.

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He admires the company.  He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting.  It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch.  We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.

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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$2.250
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT

Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices.  He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better. 

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Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices.  He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better. 

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Peter Imhof

Vice Presi, AGF Investments Inc...

Price Price
$2.410
Owned Owned
No

SPECULATIVE BUY

He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him. 

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He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him. 

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Jaime Carrasco

Portfolio , Canaccord Genuity...

Price Price
$2.190
Owned Owned
No

BUY on WEAKNESS

He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.

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He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.

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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$2.190
Owned Owned
Yes

WEAK BUY

Although it is producing more oil today, it is trading near five year lows, he says.  The trend has been down for several years, but the short-term bullish retracement allows an opportunity to place a stop around $1.98.  It is the seasonal strong period and we should see resistance around $2.39.  He would like to see this stock really accelerate with the recent rally in oil prices.

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Although it is producing more oil today, it is trading near five year lows, he says.  The trend has been down for several years, but the short-term bullish retracement allows an opportunity to place a stop around $1.98.  It is the seasonal strong period and we should see resistance around $2.39.  He would like to see this stock really accelerate with the recent rally in oil prices.

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Hap (Robert) Sn

Chief Port, Castlemoore Inc....

Price Price
$2.150
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT

Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.

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Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.

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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$1.950
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY

It is down big time.  You can see how the market feels.  They have a vast resource.  He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward. 

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It is down big time.  You can see how the market feels.  They have a vast resource.  He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward. 

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.910
Owned Owned
Unknown

PAST TOP PICK
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

February 26, 2018

(A Top Pick Mar 9/17, Down 69.03%)  This has been a very well managed company with the 3rd largest Nat Gas resource.  You had to pay your customers to take your product away last fall.  It costs money to shut in your gas so they paid customers to take it away.  If you look at a 10 year chart, the production has gone up 60 times as much and the stock went from $1.25 to $1.90.  There is an opportunity here.

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(A Top Pick Mar 9/17, Down 69.03%)  This has been a very well managed company with the 3rd largest Nat Gas resource.  You had to pay your customers to take your product away last fall.  It costs money to shut in your gas so they paid customers to take it away.  If you look at a 10 year chart, the production has gone up 60 times as much and the stock went from $1.25 to $1.90.  There is an opportunity here.

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Teal Linde

Portfolio , Linde Equity Report...

Price Price
$1.990
Owned Owned
Yes

WATCH
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

February 22, 2018

He hasn't jumped in yet. A well-managed company. For the longer term, they will do fairly well. Deserves a look at current levels.

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He hasn't jumped in yet. A well-managed company. For the longer term, they will do fairly well. Deserves a look at current levels.

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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$1.790
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

February 16, 2018

He doesn’t know the fundamentals of the company. Nowhere to hang your hat. Resistance at the 3 dollars level. 

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He doesn’t know the fundamentals of the company. Nowhere to hang your hat. Resistance at the 3 dollars level. 

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Hap (Robert) Sn

Chief Port, Castlemoore Inc....

Price Price
$1.790
Owned Owned
No

DON'T BUY
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

February 9, 2018

They are one of the names suffering the long-term structural issue. It is hard to have capital tied in Canada.  

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They are one of the names suffering the long-term structural issue. It is hard to have capital tied in Canada.  

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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$1.710
Owned Owned
No

DON'T BUY
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

February 5, 2018

We need an LNG announcement in the coming year to get gas out of western Canada.  The debt is creeping up as they don’t get the gas they forecast out of Canada.

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We need an LNG announcement in the coming year to get gas out of western Canada.  The debt is creeping up as they don’t get the gas they forecast out of Canada.

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Joanne A. Hrusk

Market Str, Integral Wealth Secu...

Price Price
$2.060
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

January 15, 2018

The mix is very good.  $6.30 is the book value.  The balance sheet is good.  It is trading at a third of book value.  People think the company won’t survive but he disagrees.  This is trading at survival value.  They have hedges on the gas price.  He likes what he is seeing.  He is looking into it seriously.

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The mix is very good.  $6.30 is the book value.  The balance sheet is good.  It is trading at a third of book value.  People think the company won’t survive but he disagrees.  This is trading at survival value.  They have hedges on the gas price.  He likes what he is seeing.  He is looking into it seriously.

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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$2.210
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

January 10, 2018

The big question is, when will we get LNG on the West Coast of Canada. This was started to be talked about around 11-12 years ago, and we still don't have anything as a final investment decision. Most demand for natural gas is in the lower part of the US. We are exporting it to Mexico. There is lots of gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio that is being sucked down there first, and what is left is the stranded gas which was left in Canada. Expects that sometime in 2018, Shell goes ahead with this project, which will get the Canadian gas stocks finally moving. This is still 5 years away. Very speculative.

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The big question is, when will we get LNG on the West Coast of Canada. This was started to be talked about around 11-12 years ago, and we still don't have anything as a final investment decision. Most demand for natural gas is in the lower part of the US. We are exporting it to Mexico. There is lots of gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio that is being sucked down there first, and what is left is the stranded gas which was left in Canada. Expects that sometime in 2018, Shell goes ahead with this project, which will get the Canadian gas stocks finally moving. This is still 5 years away. Very speculative.

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0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Robert Lauzon

Deputy Chi, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$2.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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