They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.

Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices.  He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better. 

He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.

Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.

(A Top Pick Mar 9/17, Down 69.03%)  This has been a very well managed company with the 3^rd largest Nat Gas resource.  You had to pay your customers to take your product away last fall.  It costs money to shut in your gas so they paid customers to take it away.  If you look at a 10 year chart, the production has gone up 60 times as much and the stock went from $1.25 to $1.90.  There is an opportunity here.

He doesn’t know the fundamentals of the company. Nowhere to hang your hat. Resistance at the 3 dollars level. 

We need an LNG announcement in the coming year to get gas out of western Canada.  The debt is creeping up as they don’t get the gas they forecast out of Canada.

The big question is, when will we get LNG on the West Coast of Canada. This was started to be talked about around 11-12 years ago, and we still don't have anything as a final investment decision. Most demand for natural gas is in the lower part of the US. We are exporting it to Mexico. There is lots of gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio that is being sucked down there first, and what is left is the stranded gas which was left in Canada. Expects that sometime in 2018, Shell goes ahead with this project, which will get the Canadian gas stocks finally moving. This is still 5 years away. Very speculative.