Painted Pony Energy
PONY-T
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It was in a down trend but the worst may be over. Don't buy in the middle of a consolidation. Buy on a positive breakout. If you hold it then see what happens.
People criticize it for their debt. They are only 33% debt to capital position. He thinks it is an attractive story. His target is $3.06 this year. They are 96% gas. If LNG comes on line, it will need gas. Under $2 PONY-X will be a great buy.
People criticize it for their debt. They are only 33% debt to capital position. He thinks it is an attractive story. His target is $3.06 this year. They are 96% gas. If LNG comes on line, it will need gas. Under $2 PONY-X will be a great buy.
This is a great way to play new LNG development. If you own it, ride it into the Shell decision to go ahead with LNG. With the right asset sale they could dramatically improve their debt-cash flow metrics, so that could make him more bullish eventually.
This is a great way to play new LNG development. If you own it, ride it into the Shell decision to go ahead with LNG. With the right asset sale they could dramatically improve their debt-cash flow metrics, so that could make him more bullish eventually.
Maybe it is a good takeout candidate. This is an example of a name that is lagging the commodity. It says you should be a little careful. It is more of a trade here. $7 may be the upper limit. Take profits when you can.
Maybe it is a good takeout candidate. This is an example of a name that is lagging the commodity. It says you should be a little careful. It is more of a trade here. $7 may be the upper limit. Take profits when you can.
They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.
They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.
He admires the company. He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting. It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch. We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.
He admires the company. He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting. It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch. We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.
Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices. He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better.
Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices. He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better.
He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him.
He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him.
He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.
He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.
Although it is producing more oil today, it is trading near five year lows, he says. The trend has been down for several years, but the short-term bullish retracement allows an opportunity to place a stop around $1.98. It is the seasonal strong period and we should see resistance around $2.39. He would like to see this stock really accelerate with the recent rally in oil prices.
Although it is producing more oil today, it is trading near five year lows, he says. The trend has been down for several years, but the short-term bullish retracement allows an opportunity to place a stop around $1.98. It is the seasonal strong period and we should see resistance around $2.39. He would like to see this stock really accelerate with the recent rally in oil prices.
Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.
Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.
It is down big time. You can see how the market feels. They have a vast resource. He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward.
It is down big time. You can see how the market feels. They have a vast resource. He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward.
(A Top Pick Mar 9/17, Down 69.03%) This has been a very well managed company with the 3rd largest Nat Gas resource. You had to pay your customers to take your product away last fall. It costs money to shut in your gas so they paid customers to take it away. If you look at a 10 year chart, the production has gone up 60 times as much and the stock went from $1.25 to $1.90. There is an opportunity here.
(A Top Pick Mar 9/17, Down 69.03%) This has been a very well managed company with the 3rd largest Nat Gas resource. You had to pay your customers to take your product away last fall. It costs money to shut in your gas so they paid customers to take it away. If you look at a 10 year chart, the production has gone up 60 times as much and the stock went from $1.25 to $1.90. There is an opportunity here.
He hasn't jumped in yet. A well-managed company. For the longer term, they will do fairly well. Deserves a look at current levels.
He hasn't jumped in yet. A well-managed company. For the longer term, they will do fairly well. Deserves a look at current levels.
He doesn’t know the fundamentals of the company. Nowhere to hang your hat. Resistance at the 3 dollars level.
He doesn’t know the fundamentals of the company. Nowhere to hang your hat. Resistance at the 3 dollars level.
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It was in a down trend but the worst may be over. Don't buy in the middle of a consolidation. Buy on a positive breakout. If you hold it then see what happens.