Painted Pony Energy

PONY-T

Analysis and Opinions about PONY-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 17, 2020
A challenged energy company. Really cheap on a price to book basis. The problem is that most energy companies have no positive price momentum and earnings are not yet growing. Cash flow is beginning to improve, but it is too early to get back into yet.
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A challenged energy company. Really cheap on a price to book basis. The problem is that most energy companies have no positive price momentum and earnings are not yet growing. Cash flow is beginning to improve, but it is too early to get back into yet.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 19, 2019

He is bullish on Albertan-based natural gas because we have declining production and supply, increased take away capacity and inventories are at a 10 year low. The winter will eventually come and then there is the prospect of depleting storage. A lot of Nat gas companies have hedged away their Alberta gas exposure. Pony still leaves him a little uncomfortable, however. He likes BRK-T, TOU-T and ARX-T. The balance sheet of PONY-T leaves him pause.

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He is bullish on Albertan-based natural gas because we have declining production and supply, increased take away capacity and inventories are at a 10 year low. The winter will eventually come and then there is the prospect of depleting storage. A lot of Nat gas companies have hedged away their Alberta gas exposure. Pony still leaves him a little uncomfortable, however. He likes BRK-T, TOU-T and ARX-T. The balance sheet of PONY-T leaves him pause.

BUY
BUY
November 21, 2019
They have significant assets in the core area that will benefit from LNG. They had a tough second quarter and production came in because they shut in some production. The fourth quarter is going to be good. He thinks they can buy down debt next year. It is a higher beta stock and not owned by institutions. They could be a takeover candidate 3 or 4 years down the road.
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They have significant assets in the core area that will benefit from LNG. They had a tough second quarter and production came in because they shut in some production. The fourth quarter is going to be good. He thinks they can buy down debt next year. It is a higher beta stock and not owned by institutions. They could be a takeover candidate 3 or 4 years down the road.
SELL
SELL
November 8, 2019
There are a lot of components in the energy sector that are weighing them down. The stock came down so much that it’s looking to be more of a bankrupt company than a turnaround story. The stock’s not looking good so be very careful. It could bounce back, or go lower.
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There are a lot of components in the energy sector that are weighing them down. The stock came down so much that it’s looking to be more of a bankrupt company than a turnaround story. The stock’s not looking good so be very careful. It could bounce back, or go lower.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 29, 2019
Well-managed, but Canadian energy has a big strike against it. Most are trading at 3-4x cash flow, which are 15-year lows. Even when there is enthusiasm for oil, the senior oil stocks will move up before these do. Investors don't care about oil stocks now.
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Well-managed, but Canadian energy has a big strike against it. Most are trading at 3-4x cash flow, which are 15-year lows. Even when there is enthusiasm for oil, the senior oil stocks will move up before these do. Investors don't care about oil stocks now.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 10, 2019
It will benefit from the LNG business that is coming in the next few years. It is a candidate for tax loss selling. $3.40 is his target. He likes it. It has a monster upside.
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It will benefit from the LNG business that is coming in the next few years. It is a candidate for tax loss selling. $3.40 is his target. He likes it. It has a monster upside.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
July 25, 2019
One-year target of $3.40. No dividend. Balance sheet pretty good. He'd potentially own it. Stock is cheap here.
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One-year target of $3.40. No dividend. Balance sheet pretty good. He'd potentially own it. Stock is cheap here.
HOLD
HOLD
July 17, 2019
An under-performing natural gas producer that will likely continue to improve its marketing of its production outside of Alberta. He does not currently own it.
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An under-performing natural gas producer that will likely continue to improve its marketing of its production outside of Alberta. He does not currently own it.
HOLD
HOLD
June 20, 2019
People need to realize that because of the construction season, the price of ACO is $0.05 and nobody can make money at that. It is a very cheap stock. They are right on the fairway to fill the LNG Canadian needs. He would stay with it. They have sufficient cash flow.
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People need to realize that because of the construction season, the price of ACO is $0.05 and nobody can make money at that. It is a very cheap stock. They are right on the fairway to fill the LNG Canadian needs. He would stay with it. They have sufficient cash flow.
BUY
BUY
May 24, 2019
A 10-bagger? Their debt is very low and it is very well managed. They have a massive reserve life. A very big beneficiary of west coast LNG. This could see $15 share prices again. Yes, it could be a 10-bagger or a future acquisition. He is hoping to hear of a LNG Canada announcement soon.
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A 10-bagger? Their debt is very low and it is very well managed. They have a massive reserve life. A very big beneficiary of west coast LNG. This could see $15 share prices again. Yes, it could be a 10-bagger or a future acquisition. He is hoping to hear of a LNG Canada announcement soon.
BUY
BUY
February 28, 2019
Results are not out yet because of a pipeline issue on the West Coast of BC. He thinks their volumes will pick up again as the pipeline issues are resolved. It is a very cheap stock at one and a half times cash flow. We need LNG takeaway capacity on the west coast, which will benefit them in 2024. We are probably going to have the lowest storage levels in a long time in North America due to cold weather. And Canadian Nat Gas prices are above $3 right now. It looks like cold weather will go on a little longer.
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Results are not out yet because of a pipeline issue on the West Coast of BC. He thinks their volumes will pick up again as the pipeline issues are resolved. It is a very cheap stock at one and a half times cash flow. We need LNG takeaway capacity on the west coast, which will benefit them in 2024. We are probably going to have the lowest storage levels in a long time in North America due to cold weather. And Canadian Nat Gas prices are above $3 right now. It looks like cold weather will go on a little longer.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 9, 2019
A BC station 2 gas producer -- right at the further point from markets. He is focusing on condensate rich producers instead that see prices linked more to oil prices. AECO prices yesterday were $1.13 /GJ.
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A BC station 2 gas producer -- right at the further point from markets. He is focusing on condensate rich producers instead that see prices linked more to oil prices. AECO prices yesterday were $1.13 /GJ.
BUY
BUY
December 17, 2018
It is on his action alert buy list. It is mainly natural gas focused. 9% liquids. They are going to have a lift in production in 2019. The stock is pretty cheap. The balance sheet is 35% debt and he does not see that as a problem. It will start to do much better.
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It is on his action alert buy list. It is mainly natural gas focused. 9% liquids. They are going to have a lift in production in 2019. The stock is pretty cheap. The balance sheet is 35% debt and he does not see that as a problem. It will start to do much better.
WAIT
WAIT
November 14, 2018
In the long term, they have incredible assets and management and will be very successful. In the short term, they are looking at selling some assets because of high debt loads.
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In the long term, they have incredible assets and management and will be very successful. In the short term, they are looking at selling some assets because of high debt loads.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 19, 2018

This stock was a sell on fact situation following the announcement of Shell to proceed with LNG on the west coast. There is long term exposure to BC natural gas out to 2023. They are having trouble proving the value of their acreage. He would not own this as he remains bearish natural gas.

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This stock was a sell on fact situation following the announcement of Shell to proceed with LNG on the west coast. There is long term exposure to BC natural gas out to 2023. They are having trouble proving the value of their acreage. He would not own this as he remains bearish natural gas.

HOLD
HOLD
September 28, 2018

This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast. It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it. It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.

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Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
September 28, 2018

This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast. It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it. It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 7, 2018

Tourmaline versus Painted Pony. TOU-T is a $5.8 billion company with 22% liquids, moving towards 40% liquids production soon. PONY-T market cap is $438 million. These are apples to oranges. He lies both companies, however, and both are on his recommended list. If we see a further market erosion with tax loss season approaching in November or December, both will likely become a strong buy.

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Tourmaline versus Painted Pony. TOU-T is a $5.8 billion company with 22% liquids, moving towards 40% liquids production soon. PONY-T market cap is $438 million. These are apples to oranges. He lies both companies, however, and both are on his recommended list. If we see a further market erosion with tax loss season approaching in November or December, both will likely become a strong buy.

HOLD
HOLD
August 24, 2018

It has dropped and is attempting to consolidate. It is in a cup formation. If it breaks its old lid, it may break out. If own, you may want to hold, but would not buy until a break out is confirmed.

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It has dropped and is attempting to consolidate. It is in a cup formation. If it breaks its old lid, it may break out. If own, you may want to hold, but would not buy until a break out is confirmed.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 13, 2018

Their debt is not a problem. Book value is $6.47. Would be a buy if the stock price went to the low $2.00 range. This is a stock you want to own for the long term. When gas comes back into favour, Painted Pony is one of the go to names.

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Their debt is not a problem. Book value is $6.47. Would be a buy if the stock price went to the low $2.00 range. This is a stock you want to own for the long term. When gas comes back into favour, Painted Pony is one of the go to names.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 8, 2018

The chart looks good at the moment. This has formed a double bottom around $1.70 and has been trading steadily higher. This is a good bargain potentially and has moved through resistance around $3. As long as energy prices continue to do well, it could rally by another $0.50 with $2.60 as key support.

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The chart looks good at the moment. This has formed a double bottom around $1.70 and has been trading steadily higher. This is a good bargain potentially and has moved through resistance around $3. As long as energy prices continue to do well, it could rally by another $0.50 with $2.60 as key support.

BUY
BUY
July 16, 2018

They have a lot of debt but you have to look at the equity. They are about 9% liquids and 91% natural gas. Their stock popped last week because they announced on two wells. They are now finding more liquid rich opportunities. It is one of the names he likes. He projects $6 within a year. He feels the bargains are in the natural gas side.

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They have a lot of debt but you have to look at the equity. They are about 9% liquids and 91% natural gas. Their stock popped last week because they announced on two wells. They are now finding more liquid rich opportunities. It is one of the names he likes. He projects $6 within a year. He feels the bargains are in the natural gas side.

HOLD
HOLD
July 9, 2018

It was in a down trend but the worst may be over. Don't buy in the middle of a consolidation. Buy on a positive breakout. If you hold it then see what happens.

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It was in a down trend but the worst may be over. Don't buy in the middle of a consolidation. Buy on a positive breakout. If you hold it then see what happens.

BUY
BUY
June 18, 2018

People criticize it for their debt. They are only 33% debt to capital position. He thinks it is an attractive story. His target is $3.06 this year. They are 96% gas. If LNG comes on line, it will need gas. Under $2 PONY-X will be a great buy.

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People criticize it for their debt. They are only 33% debt to capital position. He thinks it is an attractive story. His target is $3.06 this year. They are 96% gas. If LNG comes on line, it will need gas. Under $2 PONY-X will be a great buy.

HOLD
HOLD
May 4, 2018

This is a great way to play new LNG development. If you own it, ride it into the Shell decision to go ahead with LNG. With the right asset sale they could dramatically improve their debt-cash flow metrics, so that could make him more bullish eventually.

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This is a great way to play new LNG development. If you own it, ride it into the Shell decision to go ahead with LNG. With the right asset sale they could dramatically improve their debt-cash flow metrics, so that could make him more bullish eventually.

SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
April 30, 2018

Maybe it is a good takeout candidate. This is an example of a name that is lagging the commodity. It says you should be a little careful. It is more of a trade here. $7 may be the upper limit. Take profits when you can.

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Maybe it is a good takeout candidate. This is an example of a name that is lagging the commodity. It says you should be a little careful. It is more of a trade here. $7 may be the upper limit. Take profits when you can.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 17, 2018

They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.

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They have the 3rd largest gas reserves in Canada. He’s not buying it because his focus is on oil companies that have had a 50-to-70% dislocation between what oil has done and what the stock has done. He is also focused on service companies that are able to push through price increases, have net cash on the balance sheet, are trading at 2 to 3x EBITDA, with 20% free cash flow yield. Painted Pony doesn’t fit this mix. Pony has fallen 50% this year based on natural gas exposure. He’s been bearish on nat gas for a year. They’ve done their best to diversify their market but the backdrop for natural gas in 2019 and beyond is not good in Canada and in the U.S.

BUY
BUY
April 16, 2018

He admires the company. He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting. It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch. We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.

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He admires the company. He has not bought any at this time, but it is quite interesting. It is one of the better managed mid-sized companies in the oil patch. We are going to see more M&A in the industry and this is one that could take advantage of that.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 6, 2018

Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices. He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better.

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Unfortunately the gas sector faces production that is stranded and at low commodity prices. He continues to stay away from this sector, but feels the risk-reward is looking better.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
April 3, 2018

He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him.

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He follows it. He has a $4 target as a speculative buy. Careful because of volatility. Maybe it'll be cheaper later this year. It interests him.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 3, 2018

He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.

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He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
March 23, 2018

Although it is producing more oil today, it is trading near five year lows, he says. The trend has been down for several years, but the short-term bullish retracement allows an opportunity to place a stop around $1.98. It is the seasonal strong period and we should see resistance around $2.39. He would like to see this stock really accelerate with the recent rally in oil prices.

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Although it is producing more oil today, it is trading near five year lows, he says. The trend has been down for several years, but the short-term bullish retracement allows an opportunity to place a stop around $1.98. It is the seasonal strong period and we should see resistance around $2.39. He would like to see this stock really accelerate with the recent rally in oil prices.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 15, 2018

Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.

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Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.

BUY
BUY
March 8, 2018

It is down big time. You can see how the market feels. They have a vast resource. He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward.

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It is down big time. You can see how the market feels. They have a vast resource. He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 26, 2018

(A Top Pick Mar 9/17, Down 69.03%) This has been a very well managed company with the 3rd largest Nat Gas resource. You had to pay your customers to take your product away last fall. It costs money to shut in your gas so they paid customers to take it away. If you look at a 10 year chart, the production has gone up 60 times as much and the stock went from $1.25 to $1.90. There is an opportunity here.

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(A Top Pick Mar 9/17, Down 69.03%) This has been a very well managed company with the 3rd largest Nat Gas resource. You had to pay your customers to take your product away last fall. It costs money to shut in your gas so they paid customers to take it away. If you look at a 10 year chart, the production has gone up 60 times as much and the stock went from $1.25 to $1.90. There is an opportunity here.

WATCH
WATCH
February 22, 2018

He hasn't jumped in yet. A well-managed company. For the longer term, they will do fairly well. Deserves a look at current levels.

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He hasn't jumped in yet. A well-managed company. For the longer term, they will do fairly well. Deserves a look at current levels.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 16, 2018

He doesn’t know the fundamentals of the company. Nowhere to hang your hat. Resistance at the 3 dollars level.

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He doesn’t know the fundamentals of the company. Nowhere to hang your hat. Resistance at the 3 dollars level.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 9, 2018

They are one of the names suffering the long-term structural issue. It is hard to have capital tied in Canada.

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They are one of the names suffering the long-term structural issue. It is hard to have capital tied in Canada.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 5, 2018

We need an LNG announcement in the coming year to get gas out of western Canada. The debt is creeping up as they don’t get the gas they forecast out of Canada.

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We need an LNG announcement in the coming year to get gas out of western Canada. The debt is creeping up as they don’t get the gas they forecast out of Canada.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 15, 2018

The mix is very good. $6.30 is the book value. The balance sheet is good. It is trading at a third of book value. People think the company won’t survive but he disagrees. This is trading at survival value. They have hedges on the gas price. He likes what he is seeing. He is looking into it seriously.

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The mix is very good. $6.30 is the book value. The balance sheet is good. It is trading at a third of book value. People think the company won’t survive but he disagrees. This is trading at survival value. They have hedges on the gas price. He likes what he is seeing. He is looking into it seriously.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 10, 2018

The big question is, when will we get LNG on the West Coast of Canada. This was started to be talked about around 11-12 years ago, and we still don't have anything as a final investment decision. Most demand for natural gas is in the lower part of the US. We are exporting it to Mexico. There is lots of gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio that is being sucked down there first, and what is left is the stranded gas which was left in Canada. Expects that sometime in 2018, Shell goes ahead with this project, which will get the Canadian gas stocks finally moving. This is still 5 years away. Very speculative.

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The big question is, when will we get LNG on the West Coast of Canada. This was started to be talked about around 11-12 years ago, and we still don't have anything as a final investment decision. Most demand for natural gas is in the lower part of the US. We are exporting it to Mexico. There is lots of gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio that is being sucked down there first, and what is left is the stranded gas which was left in Canada. Expects that sometime in 2018, Shell goes ahead with this project, which will get the Canadian gas stocks finally moving. This is still 5 years away. Very speculative.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 5, 2018

The trouble with this company and the whole gas complex is that the outlook for Canadian gas