Analysis and Opinions about AA-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 13, 2015

So much of the aluminum story depends on how well China is doing. There are some exciting things happening in aluminum. Aircraft sales are way up, and Ford (F-N) has moved into aluminum bodies for trucks. Until commodity prices start to get a little more stabilized, he doesn’t see money moving into the sector. A lot of these manufacturing companies are not about revenue gain, but operating cost cutting.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 13, 2015

So much of the aluminum story depends on how well China is doing. There are some exciting things happening in aluminum. Aircraft sales are way up, and Ford (F-N) has moved into aluminum bodies for trucks. Until commodity prices start to get a little more stabilized, he doesn’t see money moving into the sector. A lot of these manufacturing companies are not about revenue gain, but operating cost cutting.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 6, 2015

His outlook is not good near to medium term. Your major buyer is China, but they actually produce aluminum themselves. The outlook is not good.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 6, 2015

His outlook is not good near to medium term. Your major buyer is China, but they actually produce aluminum themselves. The outlook is not good.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 3, 2015

This has turned itself from a metal basher into manufactured products. As the weight of a car or a plane comes down, aluminum is used more and more. Over the last year, this one is off about 7%. It is probably worthwhile putting in a longer-term position, as they should do well because of its major product and what it does with it will be used more and more.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
June 3, 2015

This has turned itself from a metal basher into manufactured products. As the weight of a car or a plane comes down, aluminum is used more and more. Over the last year, this one is off about 7%. It is probably worthwhile putting in a longer-term position, as they should do well because of its major product and what it does with it will be used more and more.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 2, 2015

This has been over $30 five times in the last 15 years. It is a cyclical company, so you have to rent it, not own it. They are in a sweet spot right now. Have made a bunch of acquisitions and have gotten more into the value added part of the aluminum business. Aluminum prices are historically low, but this is still throwing off free cash flow. Earnings are at about $1 a share and US auto demand is going to rise 25% over the next couple of years, simply because of emission standards. Dividend yield of 0.95%.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
June 2, 2015

This has been over $30 five times in the last 15 years. It is a cyclical company, so you have to rent it, not own it. They are in a sweet spot right now. Have made a bunch of acquisitions and have gotten more into the value added part of the aluminum business. Aluminum prices are historically low, but this is still throwing off free cash flow. Earnings are at about $1 a share and US auto demand is going to rise 25% over the next couple of years, simply because of emission standards. Dividend yield of 0.95%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 26, 2015

If he had to own a commodity, aluminum might be one that he might want to look at. The problem with this company is that aluminum is the one commodity that they actually make and export out of China. He wouldn’t have too much money in commodities at all right now.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 26, 2015

If he had to own a commodity, aluminum might be one that he might want to look at. The problem with this company is that aluminum is the one commodity that they actually make and export out of China. He wouldn’t have too much money in commodities at all right now.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 17, 2015

Not a fan of most commodities. We still have longer to wait. Commodity cycles are very long, and we are in about a year 4 or 5 of the latest downtrend. One thing that bothers him is that China is a net producer of aluminum, not an importer.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 17, 2015

Not a fan of most commodities. We still have longer to wait. Commodity cycles are very long, and we are in about a year 4 or 5 of the latest downtrend. One thing that bothers him is that China is a net producer of aluminum, not an importer.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 12, 2015

Aluminum is not that attractive to her longer term. All commodity prices have been declining. They are trying to diversify into other applications, such as a recent titanium maker.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
March 12, 2015

Aluminum is not that attractive to her longer term. All commodity prices have been declining. They are trying to diversify into other applications, such as a recent titanium maker.

BUY
BUY
February 12, 2015

Aluminum prices are depressed, but this company is not dependant on the price of Aluminum. He would buy for a new client today. You need to buy it when earnings are depressed like they are now. The auto sector is moving to more and more aluminum in cars. A lot of the high cost production has been shut in so the supply has reduced.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
February 12, 2015

Aluminum prices are depressed, but this company is not dependant on the price of Aluminum. He would buy for a new client today. You need to buy it when earnings are depressed like they are now. The auto sector is moving to more and more aluminum in cars. A lot of the high cost production has been shut in so the supply has reduced.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 4, 2015

We are seeing weakness in all the metals, primarily because of the situation in China. For the longest time, commodity prices have been driven by what is going on in China. The Chinese government and their central bank is trying very hard to keep growth going forward. While this is going on, it is very difficult for metal prices in general to make any progress. One thing in this company’s favour is the expectation of a lot of aircraft orders. He is not sure it is enough to counteract the slow growth in metals globally.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
February 4, 2015

We are seeing weakness in all the metals, primarily because of the situation in China. For the longest time, commodity prices have been driven by what is going on in China. The Chinese government and their central bank is trying very hard to keep growth going forward. While this is going on, it is very difficult for metal prices in general to make any progress. One thing in this company’s favour is the expectation of a lot of aircraft orders. He is not sure it is enough to counteract the slow growth in metals globally.

WATCH
WATCH
January 19, 2015

Bottoms around the end of January and moves higher to the end of May of each year. Is not in an uptrend. It is below its 20 day moving average. He is watching it to see if it bottoms.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 19, 2015

Bottoms around the end of January and moves higher to the end of May of each year. Is not in an uptrend. It is below its 20 day moving average. He is watching it to see if it bottoms.

SELL
SELL
January 8, 2015

Came down to EBV -3 and now you get a double. $15 model price, -2% at its current price. He would sell and look elsewhere.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 8, 2015

Came down to EBV -3 and now you get a double. $15 model price, -2% at its current price. He would sell and look elsewhere.

BUY
BUY
December 4, 2014

Aluminum is one of the better commodities. AA-N is a good company to own.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
December 4, 2014

Aluminum is one of the better commodities. AA-N is a good company to own.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 4, 2014

Up 85% or so in the last 12 months. Given that a lot of car companies are moving to lighter cars and using more aluminum in car production, this has helped the stock. In the materials space, aluminum is probably one of the better ones to be in, compared to the deep mining. At this point, he thinks this stock is starting to reach fair value.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
December 4, 2014

Up 85% or so in the last 12 months. Given that a lot of car companies are moving to lighter cars and using more aluminum in car production, this has helped the stock. In the materials space, aluminum is probably one of the better ones to be in, compared to the deep mining. At this point, he thinks this stock is starting to reach fair value.

Stan Wong

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Price
$17.240
Owned
Unknown
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
November 21, 2014

This has done very well. People became bullish on aluminum recently. The increase in usage of aluminum in the automobile is giving more credence. Costs have come down for them because the price of aluminum is relatively flat. Stock has more than doubled, so if you own, he would be inclined to take some profits. He thinks you have seen the best of your gains at this point.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 21, 2014

This has done very well. People became bullish on aluminum recently. The increase in usage of aluminum in the automobile is giving more credence. Costs have come down for them because the price of aluminum is relatively flat. Stock has more than doubled, so if you own, he would be inclined to take some profits. He thinks you have seen the best of your gains at this point.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 3, 2014

Has done well in price appreciation, largely on the back of cost-cutting. Their revenues have not grown appreciably. The smelting business, up until recently, has been in business of trying to create demand by cutting off supply. A big part of their mining is done in China, which they don't control, and that gives him pause. The good news is that the downstream business has really picked up. However, he would still pass.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 3, 2014

Has done well in price appreciation, largely on the back of cost-cutting. Their revenues have not grown appreciably. The smelting business, up until recently, has been in business of trying to create demand by cutting off supply. A big part of their mining is done in China, which they don't control, and that gives him pause. The good news is that the downstream business has really picked up. However, he would still pass.

SELL
SELL
October 7, 2014

Stock has done quite well because near-term, aluminum prices have had a temporary imbalance. There is a lot of excess capacity so she doesn’t think the price is sustainable. This is a commodity that China produces and which they don’t import. She would prefer something like copper.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
October 7, 2014

Stock has done quite well because near-term, aluminum prices have had a temporary imbalance. There is a lot of excess capacity so she doesn’t think the price is sustainable. This is a commodity that China produces and which they don’t import. She would prefer something like copper.

SELL
SELL
September 9, 2014

This has done very well and is probably a Sell. Aluminium prices increased by about 15%-20% in the last 3 months, due to some production curtailment. This is one commodity that China produces domestically. Capitalization in this industry is quite low at about 78%, which means there is plenty of capacity out there.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
September 9, 2014

This has done very well and is probably a Sell. Aluminium prices increased by about 15%-20% in the last 3 months, due to some production curtailment. This is one commodity that China produces domestically. Capitalization in this industry is quite low at about 78%, which means there is plenty of capacity out there.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 18, 2014

Aluminium is a big auto industries play. The US auto standards are changing in 2016, and auto demand for aluminium is going to really jump, about 25%. This company has done pretty well, even with weak aluminium prices. He would wait for a bit of a pullback before stepping in.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
August 18, 2014

Aluminium is a big auto industries play. The US auto standards are changing in 2016, and auto demand for aluminium is going to really jump, about 25%. This company has done pretty well, even with weak aluminium prices. He would wait for a bit of a pullback before stepping in.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2014

Hasn’t owned this because he just doesn’t feel comfortable in a situation where they are making strides on the cost side, and by trying to equalize the supply/demand situation. There has been a tremendous amount of supply in the smelters, and they have been shuttering smelters to try to equalize that. They are not completely in control because China is a big producer. However, the company has done a good job.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 24, 2014

Hasn’t owned this because he just doesn’t feel comfortable in a situation where they are making strides on the cost side, and by trying to equalize the supply/demand situation. There has been a tremendous amount of supply in the smelters, and they have been shuttering smelters to try to equalize that. They are not completely in control because China is a big producer. However, the company has done a good job.

HOLD
HOLD
July 14, 2014

It is cyclical. There is a mandate that cars have to be lighter and more fuel efficient so that will mean more aluminum. AA-N is getting into more places than before. There is some over head resistance in about 10-15% up and then it might pull back.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 14, 2014

It is cyclical. There is a mandate that cars have to be lighter and more fuel efficient so that will mean more aluminum. AA-N is getting into more places than before. There is some over head resistance in about 10-15% up and then it might pull back.

SELL
SELL
July 8, 2014

Has done well. They did well at cost cutting and made acquisitions to diversify. She would be inclined to take profits, even though the stock may go up for a couple of years if there is good demand for metal products.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 8, 2014

Has done well. They did well at cost cutting and made acquisitions to diversify. She would be inclined to take profits, even though the stock may go up for a couple of years if there is good demand for metal products.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 3, 2014

Cyclical. China is slowing down. The stock is going up in anticipation of better earnings. Model $10.35, 30% negative differential. It is cheap. Prefers others, see Top Picks.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 3, 2014

Cyclical. China is slowing down. The stock is going up in anticipation of better earnings. Model $10.35, 30% negative differential. It is cheap. Prefers others, see Top Picks.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 26, 2014

He has not favoured it. They only control the cost side of the process. In the last 7 years they closed down 30% of their production capacity. Chinese production is the wild card. They can’t control it. So he does not support the company or the stock. He is nervous despite what the stock price has done.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
June 26, 2014

He has not favoured it. They only control the cost side of the process. In the last 7 years they closed down 30% of their production capacity. Chinese production is the wild card. They can’t control it. So he does not support the company or the stock. He is nervous despite what the stock price has done.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 4, 2014

On their 10 year operating results, revenues were down and earnings are down even more. This company seems to be struggling.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
June 4, 2014

On their 10 year operating results, revenues were down and earnings are down even more. This company seems to be struggling.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 30, 2014

We are seeing a lot of companies doing well because they are cutting costs and increasing productivity. However, revenue is the great driver of success and we are really not seeing a lot of that. There is still too much capacity in the area. We need to buy companies that have growth and this company just doesn’t fit that.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 30, 2014

We are seeing a lot of companies doing well because they are cutting costs and increasing productivity. However, revenue is the great driver of success and we are really not seeing a lot of that. There is still too much capacity in the area. We need to buy companies that have growth and this company just doesn’t fit that.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 26, 2014

This company has sort of reinvented itself and is much more focused on automobiles. Chart shows a fantastic up trend with a little bit of sideways action now. Sometimes that can be a continuation. This suggests that if it gets above $13.80 with a bit of price action, they can move higher. However, you will probably see this settle in a band of about $10.75-$13.80. If you own, tighten up your Stops just below $13. If you want to trade it, wait until it got just above $14. A better time to look at this one would be October.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 26, 2014

This company has sort of reinvented itself and is much more focused on automobiles. Chart shows a fantastic up trend with a little bit of sideways action now. Sometimes that can be a continuation. This suggests that if it gets above $13.80 with a bit of price action, they can move higher. However, you will probably see this settle in a band of about $10.75-$13.80. If you own, tighten up your Stops just below $13. If you want to trade it, wait until it got just above $14. A better time to look at this one would be October.

HOLD
HOLD
May 20, 2014

Hasn’t looked at this for some time. Good company. The argument for owning or considering buying is if you can see a continuing US economic recovery, not to mention globally and this will certainly be a player.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 20, 2014

Hasn’t looked at this for some time. Good company. The argument for owning or considering buying is if you can see a continuing US economic recovery, not to mention globally and this will certainly be a player.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 23, 2014

(A Top Pick April 30/13. Up 60.91%.) Feels that this is just on the cusp. After aluminum companies have shut in a lot of high cost aluminum, supply is declining somewhat and demand is poised to take off in the next couple of years because of US auto demand is rising. To him, their peak earnings will be $2.50-$3 a share. In the past, when earnings have been at this level, this has been a $30 stock.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 23, 2014

(A Top Pick April 30/13. Up 60.91%.) Feels that this is just on the cusp. After aluminum companies have shut in a lot of high cost aluminum, supply is declining somewhat and demand is poised to take off in the next couple of years because of US auto demand is rising. To him, their peak earnings will be $2.50-$3 a share. In the past, when earnings have been at this level, this has been a $30 stock.

HOLD
HOLD
April 22, 2014

A very good, large cap aluminum producer levered to the US economy and into the global economy. There is a trend towards light weighting in cars as opposed to having a lot of steel in your cars. Feels it has good long-term prospects.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 22, 2014

A very good, large cap aluminum producer levered to the US economy and into the global economy. There is a trend towards light weighting in cars as opposed to having a lot of steel in your cars. Feels it has good long-term prospects.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2014

In general, he is not a big fan of the metals industry right now. A lot of capacity has been built in the last few years and China slowing down has an impact. However, this company is in a unique position. They have gotten rid of a lot of their commodity business and have focused on specialty products. Now focused on higher margin products.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 2, 2014

In general, he is not a big fan of the metals industry right now. A lot of capacity has been built in the last few years and China slowing down has an impact. However, this company is in a unique position. They have gotten rid of a lot of their commodity business and have focused on specialty products. Now focused on higher margin products.

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