Analysis and Opinions about AA-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 7, 2019
A cyclical stock, so wait till it's beaten up. AA is in good shape with strong cash flow and they're a low-cost producer. China has cut back on capacity, so we're close to a turn.
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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 7, 2019
A cyclical stock, so wait till it's beaten up. AA is in good shape with strong cash flow and they're a low-cost producer. China has cut back on capacity, so we're close to a turn.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 26, 2019
Aluminum is a growth metal because it's light. Incredibly low price. Deleveraged, cut costs. Still generating free cash flow at low commodity prices. Don't need much to go right to move forward significantly. Aluminum prices are bottoming, he thinks. Over time, demand will grow. Sees earnings doubling over the next year or two, which will impact the stock price. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $38.82)
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Alcoa (AA-N)
March 26, 2019
Aluminum is a growth metal because it's light. Incredibly low price. Deleveraged, cut costs. Still generating free cash flow at low commodity prices. Don't need much to go right to move forward significantly. Aluminum prices are bottoming, he thinks. Over time, demand will grow. Sees earnings doubling over the next year or two, which will impact the stock price. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $38.82)
BUY
BUY
January 31, 2019
Only metal stock they hold. He is bullish on aluminium prices as there is demand from the automotive sector. The best in the business. A volatile stock. OK to own if you have a relatively long term horizon (5 years +).
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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 31, 2019
Only metal stock they hold. He is bullish on aluminium prices as there is demand from the automotive sector. The best in the business. A volatile stock. OK to own if you have a relatively long term horizon (5 years +).
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 2, 2018

(A Top Pick November 28, 2017. Down 4%). Alcoa suffered from the trade barriers, but with the USMCA agreements, he thinks that the tariffs will come off and Alcoa will do better.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
October 2, 2018

(A Top Pick November 28, 2017. Down 4%). Alcoa suffered from the trade barriers, but with the USMCA agreements, he thinks that the tariffs will come off and Alcoa will do better.

HOLD
HOLD
May 23, 2018

Metals look interesting, but he would consider other names before Alcoa. Hold, don't sell this.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 23, 2018

Metals look interesting, but he would consider other names before Alcoa. Hold, don't sell this.

BUY
BUY
May 7, 2018

Aluminum remains a growth metal. He owns it because Aluminum is in a sweet spot as Chinese production has come off. You rent this stock, you don't own it. It is the right moment in time for this one.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 7, 2018

Aluminum remains a growth metal. He owns it because Aluminum is in a sweet spot as Chinese production has come off. You rent this stock, you don't own it. It is the right moment in time for this one.

BUY
BUY
April 9, 2018

A cyclical stock. Aluminum is in a sweet spot as the Chinese cut back on capacity. There'll be a premium of aluminum prices. Rent, don't buy this stock. There could be share buybacks and dividend increases next year. Earnings will
double in the next three years.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 9, 2018

A cyclical stock. Aluminum is in a sweet spot as the Chinese cut back on capacity. There'll be a premium of aluminum prices. Rent, don't buy this stock. There could be share buybacks and dividend increases next year. Earnings will
double in the next three years.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 3, 2018

A tough one to analyse. They’ve put themselves in the position of being a low-cost producer of aluminum. Being a low-cost producer of aluminum is a mixed blessing, because you have high cost Chinese competitors that don't have to make money. They can lose unlimited sums.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 3, 2018

A tough one to analyse. They’ve put themselves in the position of being a low-cost producer of aluminum. Being a low-cost producer of aluminum is a mixed blessing, because you have high cost Chinese competitors that don't have to make money. They can lose unlimited sums.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 28, 2017

Spun off its Arconic unit last year, making it a pure aluminum play again. Aluminum is in the sweet spot of metals, because it is a growth metal. Because it’s a light and strong metal, every new generation of cars and planes uses more aluminum, being more fuel efficient. They have a pristine balance sheet and minimal debt. Throwing off massive free cash flow. After years of suffering through very weak pricing environment for aluminum and alumina, the pricing cycle is starting to turn. A low-cost producer and poised to generate significant earnings growth. Trading at 28.7X trailing 12 months earnings, and he is looking for earnings to double over the next 3 years. As a cyclical company, you have to buy when the PE is high, and sell when the PE is low and it looks like a cheap stock. (Analysts’ price target is $55.)

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 28, 2017

Spun off its Arconic unit last year, making it a pure aluminum play again. Aluminum is in the sweet spot of metals, because it is a growth metal. Because it’s a light and strong metal, every new generation of cars and planes uses more aluminum, being more fuel efficient. They have a pristine balance sheet and minimal debt. Throwing off massive free cash flow. After years of suffering through very weak pricing environment for aluminum and alumina, the pricing cycle is starting to turn. A low-cost producer and poised to generate significant earnings growth. Trading at 28.7X trailing 12 months earnings, and he is looking for earnings to double over the next 3 years. As a cyclical company, you have to buy when the PE is high, and sell when the PE is low and it looks like a cheap stock. (Analysts’ price target is $55.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 23, 2017

The only mining stock he owns, because aluminum is a growth metal. Because it is light, every new generation of cars and planes has more aluminum. Aluminum has been in a down cycle for a long time. Alcoa has split itself into 2 companies. For aluminum, the up cycle is now here. This is a cyclical stock, so when it starts going up even further and looks really, really cheap, it is probably time to start looking at selling it, because it is a pure aluminum play.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
October 23, 2017

The only mining stock he owns, because aluminum is a growth metal. Because it is light, every new generation of cars and planes has more aluminum. Aluminum has been in a down cycle for a long time. Alcoa has split itself into 2 companies. For aluminum, the up cycle is now here. This is a cyclical stock, so when it starts going up even further and looks really, really cheap, it is probably time to start looking at selling it, because it is a pure aluminum play.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2017

Chart shows this was in a gently trending down-trend since February, and then broke out in June. The stock looks great, plus it is metal products and materials seem to be doing okay right now. The price of aluminum seems to be in an uptrend right now.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 24, 2017

Chart shows this was in a gently trending down-trend since February, and then broke out in June. The stock looks great, plus it is metal products and materials seem to be doing okay right now. The price of aluminum seems to be in an uptrend right now.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 6, 2017

Being in the materials based metals space, it will be a beneficiary in a cyclical environment where earnings are going to start to grow. Share price has weakened off a little, along with the rest of the market. It has come down to the 100-day moving average which could be interesting. RSI is down to about 45, and it hit oversold levels about a week ago. It is certainly a name you could consider owning.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 6, 2017

Being in the materials based metals space, it will be a beneficiary in a cyclical environment where earnings are going to start to grow. Share price has weakened off a little, along with the rest of the market. It has come down to the 100-day moving average which could be interesting. RSI is down to about 45, and it hit oversold levels about a week ago. It is certainly a name you could consider owning.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 24, 2016

Split into 2 companies, Alcoa (AA-N) and Arconic (ARNC-N). He likes them both. Alcoa is a classic deep cyclical, where he bought it down 75%. Shares have rallied, but this is the commodity side. With all the shutdowns, aluminum demand is outstripping supply, so Alcoa has started to rally, with the new US rule requiring more aluminum content in cars. Arconic is a great value added area. These are cyclicals, so you buy them when they have no earnings, and sell them when they are selling at 6X earnings.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 24, 2016

Split into 2 companies, Alcoa (AA-N) and Arconic (ARNC-N). He likes them both. Alcoa is a classic deep cyclical, where he bought it down 75%. Shares have rallied, but this is the commodity side. With all the shutdowns, aluminum demand is outstripping supply, so Alcoa has started to rally, with the new US rule requiring more aluminum content in cars. Arconic is a great value added area. These are cyclicals, so you buy them when they have no earnings, and sell them when they are selling at 6X earnings.

SELL
SELL
November 15, 2016

Manufacturers of aluminum have not been very good stocks. Profit margins are not very good. He does not like to own stocks that lose money at the bottom of a cycle, and this is certainly one of those companies. There is a lot of risk with this.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 15, 2016

Manufacturers of aluminum have not been very good stocks. Profit margins are not very good. He does not like to own stocks that lose money at the bottom of a cycle, and this is certainly one of those companies. There is a lot of risk with this.

SELL
SELL
September 2, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Not particularly good momentum, highly volatile and low ROE’s. Has not been able to grow earnings. This is a Short for him.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
September 2, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Not particularly good momentum, highly volatile and low ROE’s. Has not been able to grow earnings. This is a Short for him.

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